Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[tth2]

Well, when the WM AF 15 sold at Sotheby's for $40,000(?), which was just an astronomical price at the time, I for one thought the SA market had peaked and expected prices to start correcting big time. I'm still waiting.

[joe_collector]

Well, when the WM AF 15 sold at Sotheby's for $40,000(?), which was just an astronomical price at the time, I for one thought the SA market had peaked and expected prices to start correcting big time. I'm still waiting.

 

Without CGC, comic book prices did, and would have continued to, languish post-90's crash. Anyone buying back issues from 1995-99 knows exactly what I'm talking about, and the EXACT same comics selling for thousands now, were virtually dead in terms of demand.

 

I'm not sure most people really understand what CGC is: a concerted and premeditated effort by the largest dealers to inject speculator appeal into the comic book market again.

 

And it worked, possibly better than the dealers ever imagined, but just like any fad, it's only a matter of time before reality sets back in, and the specs all run to the latest collectible craze.

[tth2]

Without CGC, comic book prices did, and would have continued to, languish post-90's crash. Anyone buying back issues from 1995-99 knows exactly what I'm talking about, and the EXACT same comics selling for thousands now, were virtually dead in terms of demand.

 

I remember that lull very well. But the brunt of it was borne mainly by lower grade and mid- to late-60s SAs. Don't forget that during that same period, Marnin Rosenberg brought the Mass collection to market, Dan Greenhalgh brought the Winnipeg and Golden State collections to market, and Robert Roter brought the Pacific Coast collections to market (and I'm probably forgetting some other SA pedigrees that surfaced at that time). All of them triggered feeding frenzies at multiples of guide, particularly for the earlier books that were in NM or better. VIA went into business during that period and charged multiples for ALL of their books and seemed to have no shortage of customers.

[joe_collector]

Sure, but Pacific Coast and some others were late enough to have the "CGC Effect", as it was known by some parties at that time. I often wonder why those books were even sold, instead of held until 2000, although Roter might have been out of the loop, or just needed some money. A lot of people buying knew about the grading plans, that's for sure.

 

I do agree that Silver Age probably has a good decade or so left in it, before demographics start eating away at the price insanity. I see a slow decline over the next 5-10 years, and although only the most foolish will lose their shirts, I would NEVER invest in this kind of aging, declining market.

 

Of course, I fully expect some more highly-illuminating "Tales from the Past" showing how Silver Age comics broke all records and spiked enormously in value and will continue to do so for centuries to come.

[Aman619]

Joe are YOU crazy? I wrote an innocuous little post with no intention of restarting this tired debate, and you jump in guns ablazing? Seems you are talking about apples and oranges here. All you care about is your happy little Bronze universe... Ans as such, I feel for you since those books used to be dirt cheap. And from YOUR perspective of the comic's universe, YES! things are INSANE!!!! But stop extrapolating from what you experience with the books you used to buy at a few dollars each to ALL of comics collecting.

 

You collect very common books. And I agree, the CGC effect will end badly for those who are buying them for 1000s of dollars...or, maybe the Bronze Bonanza we see now is a new generation of comics collectors who greww up on these books and are priced out of Silver Age too. Perhaps this is the natural order of things: Gold to SIlver to Bronze. But I alos feel these books will suffer a letdown--- or is that just my SA prejudice?? Im sure the BA boys see it differently.

 

also, CGC wasnt created as a cabal of dealers in order to goose the market. It was a business plan by a grading company in order to make a ton of money by certifying comics just as they did in other collecting fields. Dealers were very skeptical in the beginning because the grading was now out of their hands, and they faced a loss of control of their game. If they have learned to capitalize on CGC effects and use it to their advantage, well, what did you expect? But while CGC aint perfect, theyre not the Trilateral Commission and didnt kill JFK either!

 

But Im glad to see you keeping to the ten years to go scenario... a far cry fron the CRASH IN APRIL 2004 doomsday predictions. What makes you think you have any credibility left on this subject anyway?

 

[duncan36]

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

Yup...that's exactly how I felt when I unloaded a buncha' Silver Age about 20 years ago.

 

....anybody else? Be honest now.

 

Excuse me? I happen to have quite a sizeable Silver Age collection which was built up primarily when eBay first hit. I was finally able to get all the books in the price/condition i'd always wanted. The longterm value of the books was a tiny, tiny consideration for me.

Now I'm looking at the prices of some of these books and thinking to myself, wow look at that these prices they cant possibly go up anymore, maybe I should just sell a portion of my books, I'm not that attached to them when we're talking about this kind of money.

When people like me start thinking that I'd say thats a warning sign.

[Aman619]

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

Yup...that's exactly how I felt when I unloaded a buncha' Silver Age about 20 years ago.

 

....anybody else? Be honest now.

 

Excuse me? I happen to have quite a sizeable Silver Age collection which was built up primarily when eBay first hit. I was finally able to get all the books in the price/condition i'd always wanted. The longterm value of the books was a tiny, tiny consideration for me.

Now I'm looking at the prices of some of these books and thinking to myself, wow look at that these prices they cant possibly go up anymore, maybe I should just sell a portion of my books, I'm not that attached to them when we're talking about this kind of money.

When people like me start thinking that I'd say thats a warning sign.

 

Duncan, Im pretty sure he was using his example as a cautionary tale NOT to sell...

[joe_collector]

And from YOUR perspective of the comic's universe, YES! things are INSANE!!!! But stop extrapolating from what you experience with the books you used to buy at a few dollars each to ALL of comics collecting.

 

Wow, you talk like you're a longtime collector, but you are obviously a newbie.

 

The "I thought Silver Age peaked 20 years ago" comment you agreed with was what I responding to, not my Bronze collecting, and you understand it IF (huge IF) you were actually collecting in 1984.

[joe_collector]

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

Yup...that's exactly how I felt when I unloaded a buncha' Silver Age about 20 years ago.

 

....anybody else? Be honest now.

 

You sold off a bunch of Silver Age comics in 1984.... because you though the market had peaked? Oh man, that's too much, and it's quite obvious you weren't even collecting back then.

 

[joe_collector]

also, CGC wasnt created as a cabal of dealers in order to goose the market. It was a business plan by a grading company in order to make a ton of money by certifying comics just as they did in other collecting fields.

 

Oh man, you can't really be this naive, can you?

[ninanina]

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

Yup...that's exactly how I felt when I unloaded a buncha' Silver Age about 20 years ago.

 

....anybody else? Be honest now.

 

You sold off a bunch of Silver Age comics in 1984.... because you though the market had peaked? Oh man, that's too much, and it's quite obvious you weren't even collecting back then.

 

 

Yeah JC, 20 years ago I knew a lot about comic collecting, about as much as I knew 3 years ago when I started taking part in this forum. It's unfortunate you equate a lack of knowledge/experience as something being funny.

 

It's ok, I don't take it personally.

 

My biggest reasons for selling them back then was...I needed the money. Although thinking they did peak because I did realize Silver Age was more common the Golden Age was a wrong "justification" to sell them anyway. Had I known how much more they would have gone up...I wouldn't have considered it. Like Aman said, the point I was trying to make is nobody is 100% sure what's going to happen.

 

Among those books I sold were hi-grade 9.4's minimum of Giant Size X-Men 1 and Captain America 100. An FF #1 and 2 in at least an 8.0 was in there as well. Hi-grade runs of Thor 126 - 200 ...gone. Iron Man 1-50. These were the types of books I thought peaked. I am remembering back then...FF #1 had been sitting at $1000.00 in NM for the longest time. NOt bad for a guy who didn't collect, huh?

 

I can't help feeling that many collectors got out for that reason. The $ value was just too high to pass up and they didn't believe they would go up all that much more.

 

So, I don't think there's anything funny at all at what I believed. Apparently there's lotsa' people right now that are thinking the same thing. Right?

[joe_collector]

Yeah JC, 20 years ago I knew a lot about comic collecting, about as much as I knew 3 years ago when I started taking part in this forum. It's unfortunate you equate a lack of knowledge/experience as something being funny.

 

It has nothing to do with being inexperienced. I just have this vision of you selling a NM Fantastic Four 48 for $3, and thinking 'Wow, this book has really peaked!!"

 

Sorry, but it is hilarious.

[ninanina]

JC, I've edited my post...Sorry. Also, although I did have an FF 48 back then, I am thinking I did sell it for more than $3.00.

[joe_collector]

JC, I've edited my post...Sorry. Also, although I did have an FF 48 back then, I am thinking I did sell it for more than $3.00.

 

It couldn't have been much more, it didn't book over $5-$10.

 

I've been collecting comic books since I was a kid in the 70's, and I've never, ever had a problem paying market rates for any book, and I own all kinds, although I concentrate on Bronze now. I'd check the OS, find a nice example, and pay the piper.

 

Through the 1980's and 1990's, I've only had one "bad feeling" and sold off my Valiants circa 1992. Other than that, 1970's, 1980's, 1990's... I never saw anything on the back issue market that made me feel the end was near.

 

That changed with the advent of CGC, just as it did in graded sportscards and coins, and prices moved to speculator levels. These are far beyond the limits of reality, and it is absolutely bizarre that people are "investing" in CGC comics at nosebleed prices. These are higher prices than we've ever seen at the high-end, and just like graded coins and sportscards, the wild prices cannot last.

 

Sorry you sold in 1985, but I was laughing at the Independents, actively buying older Marvels, and usually getting hassled for buying a HG runs of Bronze ASM or X-Men. I didn't believe we had hit a peak, or anywhere near that in 1985, so to portray "comic prices peaked in 1985" as a popular outlook and similar to the speculator-induced price insanity of 2001-2004 is insulting to say the least.

[Aces]

JC, I've edited my post...Sorry. Also, although I did have an FF 48 back then, I am thinking I did sell it for more than $3.00.

 

I'll give you $4.00 for it!

[Aman619]

also, CGC wasnt created as a cabal of dealers in order to goose the market. It was a business plan by a grading company in order to make a ton of money by certifying comics just as they did in other collecting fields.

 

Oh man, you can't really be this naive, can you?

 

Joe - - do you know any of these dealers of who's motives you speak? Do you ever talk to them? ...or just snipe post at them here when they show up?

 

Were you there with them when Borock and Steve (not Fischler) were going around trying to get them to get behind their effort? It wasnt a slam dunk to get support. A majority of the big guys were agianst it, or skeptical at best for a variety od selfish reasons. Hey Steve B, chime in here... tell him like it was traipsing around talking up "the next big thing" to deaf ears.

 

JC -you just call em as you see em... and dont care when you strike out looking, do you? The world's pretty b/w where you live aint it?

[Aman619]

And from YOUR perspective of the comic's universe, YES! things are INSANE!!!! But stop extrapolating from what you experience with the books you used to buy at a few dollars each to ALL of comics collecting.

 

Wow, you talk like you're a longtime collector, but you are obviously a newbie.

 

The "I thought Silver Age peaked 20 years ago" comment you agreed with was what I responding to, not my Bronze collecting, and you understand it IF (huge IF) you were actually collecting in 1984.

 

my comment was to the effect that we who buy top grade big $$$ comics (not you JC) ALWAYS feel we have paid too much and there will be no one to buy them from us later. When you buy the best, you always pay top dollar. Sometimes record-breaking dollars. And there's always been buyer's remorse afterwards and that hollow feeling that you facked up big time.

 

But you wouldnt know that feling, playing in the " modern comics ghetto" where your interests lie (not that theres anyting wrong with that!)

 

But guess what, every big 'laughable' purchase of GA or SA comics so far (except for that recent Spidey guy who bailed out too soon and Parrino's misguided plunges to date) have worked out fine. Of course, I agree that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, as the saying goes, and you have to do your homework etc. AND - - todays prces are in some case absolutely absurd to the trained eye. But, we shall see. The wheel is still a turning...... place your bets.

 

 

also, Im confused: define collector and newbie? If you dont know me by now, I must be using these terms differently than you!!! And sure I was collecting in 1984. Weekly comics every Friday AND going to shows every month buying early and late SIlver Age to fill in my SA collection. But not that BA [!@#%^&^]. It was too new and I still had all my newstand copies. What were you doing with your allowance money?

[joe_collector]

But you wouldnt know that feling, playing in the " modern comics ghetto" where your interests lie

 

Since you're again slamming my Bronze Age collecting interest, remind me to laugh at your 3rd-grade English skills sometime. If my kids ever write and spell like you, over the age of 7, I'll disown them.

[joe_collector]

also, Im confused: define collector and newbie? If you dont know me by now, I must be using these terms differently than you!!! And sure I was collecting in 1984. Weekly comics every Friday AND going to shows every month buying early and late SIlver Age to fill in my SA collection. But not that BA [!@#%^&^]. It was too new and I still had all my newstand copies. What were you doing with your allowance money?

 

Ah, so I'm talking to a senile old fart... this is starting to make sense. Go take your Geritol and have a nap Grandpa, before you go and bust a heart valve.

[Aman619]

JC why are you speaking like this?

Weve been here for 15000 posts between us, dude! But you resort to name calling almost immediately. As If I care to go back and edit my typing misstakes beyond the ones I manage to catch?? Seropisly. I spend too much tim ehere as it is to waste more o fot correcting my miskeys. Am I really supposed to?

 

As I said right up front, I did not invite this retread discussion again. I have no intererest is going over it all over again. Sorry if I gave you that impression. We share some viewpints, and differ on others. Big deal. Its always so disappointing when you turn everything into a head butting contest. At least I know which one of us is the head part!!

 

sorry, couldnt resist!!

 

Good day to you Dr Brewster. I said Good Day!