Heritage February

[jbud73]

Gene, I understand the price discovery argument and I think it has its merits however in the UXM Cover I'm not sure this tactic would have helped me for example.

 

Lets say I'm willing to discover if the cover was going to go over 16K, what I'm willing to pay. I would have been the lead pre-auction but would have not discovered much if I'm sitting on the book showing 9K, with a 16K max and you blow by that in 15 seconds of it going to the auction floor. I'm sitting there committed to my 16K bid, which precludes me from bidding on other pieces before "R" and I still get blown out of the water.

 

I think the tactic has its uses BUT it also has limitations related to what other bidders do pre-auction.

[Chris Cooper]

Congratulations, Richard, it warms my heart to see Houstonians shaking the world! Those old ECs you have must be terribly burdensome, don't you think?

[Ferran Delgado]

About the retouching in the cover of TOS #84, this is a comparison of the unretouched image vs the published cover:

 

subefotos

[Nexus]

Gene, you champion "price discovery"...unless it's for something you really want (e.g. UXM #176). Then no price discovery. So what does that say about the pieces you DO bid early on? Do you *really* want those? (And yes, you can easily backfit any previous auction to help your argument but when it comes down to the test (UXM #176), action speaks louder than words.) So what's the point?

 

And there's no way you could know for sure that you had the "strongest hand" for the UXM #176 cover. How do you know there wasn't a "Ron" out there who would have bid this up like the X-MEN ANNUAL #5 cover? As you yourself say, you'll only pay so much for nostalgia...that does not say win at all costs. There are clearly guys in this hobby who will win at all costs. So, if you really believe in price discovery, you should have employed it here, as well, to feel out potential competition.

 

That flushing sound you hear is your price discovery concept going down the toilet. ( )

 

C'mon, Felix - you're just creating straw men arguments at this point. I don't "champion" price discovery and say that it is always better to bid early and often (though, like Hari, I believe that in many/most cases it doesn't really matter). I've NEVER said that. What I have said, and provided both concrete evidence of, is that there are instances when it is unquestionably beneficial, such as the example above where one has a fixed budget and is trying to acquire two items that are potentially on the borderline of that budget. To downplay this inconvenient truth, you just say that, well, if you have to choose, you don't really want both pieces. Of course, that's just projecting your own views onto the matter. It may never behoove, say, The Vacuum, to accelerate price discovery. But for people who have limited resources and must occasionally make trade-offs, the information gained from accelerating price discovery can be very valuable. I seriously don't know how you can question that.

 

And, again, your examples are mess! You point to one single instance where it didn't behoove me to accelerate price discovery and make a blanket statement based on that, when I have, on more occasions than not, accelerated price discovery to my benefit. I would say that, in the majority of cases where I've won at Heritage or CLink, I was the high bidder going into the live session (HA) or had placed my high bid in well before the auction close (HA/CL). That's not back-fitting, that's just a fact. And, again, I've clearly demonstrated that your MM example can clearly be turned around against you. Others have attested in various threads that they either believe that, in most instances, it doesn't matter when you place your bids, or that they sometimes engage in price discovery themselves for the same beneficial reasons as I will do it.

 

There is really no way you can be right in this argument, because you've taken an absolutist stance that price discovery is always harmful (with the caveat that it's OK if you don't really want the piece ), and I've already peppered many holes in that - I only have to be right once for you to be proven wrong!

 

You had one "must have" piece in the auction. Your words. For that, no price discovery. For everything else, price discovery. What did I get wrong?

 

You say that you practice price discovery EXCEPT in the case of must-haves like UXM #176, because price discovery there would hurt you. Again, your words. So you basically agree what I've been saying: "Price discovery" is bad for those auctions you truly want, and are prepared, to win! Because you are providing information for the competition and also potentially causing them to recalibrate their bids higher.

 

It's fine as an exercise to test the temperature. I'm guessing this theory is applied to other markets. But for nostalgia-based ONE-OF-A-KIND collectibles, we're dealing with collectors who are usually making EMOTION-BASED decisions. You may have scared away some of the lower bidders..but they were never going to be a factor in the end, anyway. All you've done is caused the stronger, more motivated players to stockpile extra ammo to fire. And this is especially true for the more highly desirable pieces.

 

Speaking for myself, I don't bid early. I only bid on pieces I "love" for my collection and believe I have a chance to win. I don't bid on pieces I merely "like" or have no shot at winning anyway. As it turns out, my batting average for winning auctions is high and I'm generally in the price range I estimated pre-auction (and often lower). That's all the proof I need.

 

On the other hand, you appear to be underbidder far more often than not (based on all the post-auction discussions here over the years, where you tell us all the lots you were the underbidder on), so I'm still not sure how much price discovery really helps you. Obviously, you bid on far more lots than the average collector, and also go after the trophy pieces, so I'm definitely not comparing myself to you, in terms of purchasing power. But the fact remains.

 

Of course, in the end, we'll all do what we believe makes sense for us. I'm not saying price discovery has no value at all, Gene. I just wouldn't use it myself. And it's funny you should bring up The Vacuum. He actually just wrote me to say that he agreed with me and that he would write you to tell you that he thought your price discovery concept is "hogwash". Not because he's unconcerned with having a bidding strategy for an auction, but because, like me, he'd rather not PAY MORE THAN HE HAS TO. And he believes any "price discovery" will lead to that. Like me, he never bids early, either.

 

I've gotten several PMs from boardies who agree with my POV. I don't know how to create a poll, but I'm open to starting one with this question:

 

Do you believe early bidding (i.e. price discovery):

 

A. Helps my chances of winning an auction.

 

B. Hurts my chances of winning an auction (or will cause me to pay more).

 

[romitaman]

"B" all the way.

 

Anyone who thinks "A" is the correct answer enjoys PAYING more for their art SOLEY to make their art worth more......(As the Heritage lady auctioneer said during the live auction on friday!! )

[Nexus]

Felix mistakenly assumed that, just because I said I wasn't willing to bid as high as the X-Men Annual 5, it meant that I'd give up on it past a certain point. Let's just say...not exactly.

 

I don't assume anything. You said you wouldn't go into X-MEN ANNUAL #5 territory. That's around $40K. I'm taking what you say literally, so let me know what you really mean if not that.

 

In any case, it seems to me that the lack of price discovery helped your chances of winning this one "must-have" lot. And helped to suppress the final value. Congrats again!

 

 

[Nexus]

"B" all the way.

 

Anyone who thinks "A" is the correct answer enjoys PAYING more for their art SOLEY to make their art worth more......(As the Heritage lady auctioneer said during the live auction on friday!! )

 

What Mike said.

[tth2]

Some bid early just so they can say they placed a bid on a trophy piece. None of them truly expect to win or really have any intention of winning when they bid early.

Lots of comic collectors engage in thrill bidding too, but the difference is that they bid in the minimum additional increment necessary to put in a bid. From what I can see, even if the next bid for an OA lot is $100, OA bidders will put in a bid of $10,000.

[delekkerste]

You had one "must have" piece in the auction. Your words. For that, no price discovery. For everything else, price discovery. What did I get wrong?

 

You say that you practice price discovery EXCEPT in the case of must-haves like UXM #176, because price discovery there would hurt you. Again, your words. So you basically agree what I've been saying: "Price discovery" is bad for those auctions you truly want, and are prepared, to win! Because you are providing information for the competition and also potentially causing them to recalibrate their bids higher.

 

It's fine as an exercise to test the temperature. I'm guessing this theory is applied to other markets. But for nostalgia-based ONE-OF-A-KIND collectibles, we're dealing with collectors who are usually making EMOTION-BASED decisions. You may have scared away some of the lower bidders..but they were never going to be a factor in the end, anyway. All you've done is caused the stronger, more motivated players to stockpile extra ammo to fire. And this is especially true for the more highly desirable pieces.

 

Speaking for myself, I don't bid early. I only bid on pieces I "love" for my collection and believe I have a chance to win. I don't bid on pieces I merely "like" or have no shot at winning anyway. As it turns out, my batting average for winning auctions is high and I'm generally in the price range I estimated pre-auction (and often lower). That's all the proof I need.

 

On the other hand, you appear to be underbidder far more often than not (based on all the post-auction discussions here over the years, where you tell us all the lots you were the underbidder on), so I'm still not sure how much price discovery really helps you. Obviously, you bid on far more lots than the average collector, and also go after the trophy pieces, so I'm definitely not comparing myself to you, in terms of purchasing power. But the fact remains.

 

Of course, in the end, we'll all do what we believe makes sense for us. I'm not saying price discovery has no value at all, Gene. I just wouldn't use it myself. And it's funny you should bring up The Vacuum. He actually just wrote me to say that he agreed with me and that he would write you to tell you that he thought your price discovery concept is "hogwash". Not because he's unconcerned with having a bidding strategy for an auction, but because, like me, he'd rather not PAY MORE THAN HE HAS TO. And he believes any "price discovery" will lead to that. Like me, he never bids early, either.

 

I've gotten several PMs from boardies who agree with my POV. I don't know how to create a poll, but I'm open to starting one with this question:

 

Do you believe early bidding (i.e. price discovery):

 

A. Helps my chances of winning an auction.

 

B. Hurts my chances of winning an auction (or will cause me to pay more).

 

Sorry, Felix, but a poll would be unnecessary and wouldn't prove anything, other than there are other people out there who are denying the clear evidence to the contrary of your absolutist stance.

 

It is undeniable that the information gleaned from prices can be a net benefit to certain parties, such as when you have a fixed budget to allocate among multiple pieces, or any other instance where pricing reveals that you have to either up your game or move on to other targets. You are just looking at what that might do the total end price, without looking at who actually benefitted from having that information ex ante. Just look at your MM example - without that accelerated price discovery, your 2nd underbidder wouldn't have known he would have to go high to win it. The fact that it went high is no argument that this information wasn't useful. In fact, this example shows that price minimization is not the only successful outcome - knowing that you have to up your game to win a piece is also valuable information to certain parties. Your friend could easily have taken this information, recalibrated his strategy, greatly upped his budget and ended up with the piece - yes, it would have cost him more, but he'd have the piece whereas he would have been blown out of the water without that information.

 

Even Joe admits that he can conceive of one scenario where it would be useful. But, like I said, someone in his situation might never benefit from it. Others, though, clearly can and have. You can spin a narrative about this only working on pieces you don't really want to somehow justify your absolutist stance, but, the fact is that most collectors have fixed budgets and are often just looking for good examples of certain runs/artists and aren't fixated on a single piece like the UXM #176 cover.

 

So, sure, if you really want something, know what it should be worth, know you're willing to go above and beyond, there is usually no benefit to price discovery. But, don't tell me that information is never useful to someone else going after that same piece that might have a fixed budget, is going after multiple pieces, might not know what the piece is worth, etc., because that quite obviously is not the case.

[delekkerste]

Gene, I understand the price discovery argument and I think it has its merits however in the UXM Cover I'm not sure this tactic would have helped me for example.

 

Lets say I'm willing to discover if the cover was going to go over 16K, what I'm willing to pay. I would have been the lead pre-auction but would have not discovered much if I'm sitting on the book showing 9K, with a 16K max and you blow by that in 15 seconds of it going to the auction floor. I'm sitting there committed to my 16K bid, which precludes me from bidding on other pieces before "R" and I still get blown out of the water.

 

I think the tactic has its uses BUT it also has limitations related to what other bidders do pre-auction.

 

Oh, I agree absolutely, Jason. You can't instigate price discovery on your own, and if no one else plays ball, it's not going to be of any benefit to anyone. I'm somehow being painted in a corner of saying that you should always bid early and often, except in one particular instance, which is something I have never said or intimated!

 

I think by now I have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that there are certain situations for certain individuals where it can be useful, whereas the opposition seems to be saying that it is never beneficial to anyone at any time (and if it is, it somehow must mean you didn't really want the piece to begin with!), which is demonstrably false.

 

And the very argument that early bidding may alert other bidders that they need to up their game shows why Felix's argument is fatally flawed, because clearly those bidders who were alerted did gain an informational advantage from knowing this. Yes, it may have hurt someone who was already prepared to bid high, but, just because there was a zero-sum outcome doesn't mean that somebody didn't benefit (at someone else's expense). All Felix has done is reinforce what I have said - if you are the guy in my situation for something like the UXM #176 cover, it doesn't help me to accelerate price discovery, but it certainly could not have hurt anyone else.

[Claudio]

 

Sorry, Felix, but a poll would be unnecessary and wouldn't prove anything, other than there are other people out there who are denying the clear evidence to the contrary of your absolutist stance.

 

When did Felix's stance become absolutist? The way I read this whole thing is that you like price discovery certain times because it helps you allocate funds. Felix is saying that has probably raised the price you have paid for the items. I don't think he is saying that is raised the price on every single one of your purchases but it has almost certainly raised the amount you have paid for your winnings as a whole. I think even you agree with this but you are just trying to point out that the information to you is worth the cost... which is fine,. Either way, this has been an entertaining thread. I think you have both made your point.

[delekkerste]

When did Felix's stance become absolutist? The way I read this whole thing is that you like price discovery certain times because it helps you allocate funds. Felix is saying that has probably raised the price you have paid for the items. I don't think he is saying that is raised the price on every single one of your purchases but it has almost certainly raised the amount you have paid for your winnings as a whole. I think even you agree with this but you are just trying to point out that the information to you is worth the cost... which is fine,. Either way, this has been an entertaining thread. I think you have both made your point.

 

All I have said is that price discovery can be beneficial in certain situations to certain individuals. It seems that you agree. Felix and others apparently do not acknowledge this, saying that might only be true for pieces you don't really want, when the reality is that not every piece is a must-have for every collector and most collectors do have to make trade-offs where additional information can undeniably be useful in making these decisions. You also have recognized that sometimes the information gleaned is worth the cost. I have never said otherwise, but there seems to be a chorus of people who only see a final higher price and can't see how anybody would have benefited at any time from having a better grasp of where the piece might end up.

 

In any case, no, I do not think it is "almost certain" that my bidding strategy has resulted in me paying more than I otherwise would have. More on that below...

 

 

On the other hand, you appear to be underbidder far more often than not (based on all the post-auction discussions here over the years, where you tell us all the lots you were the underbidder on), so I'm still not sure how much price discovery really helps you. Obviously, you bid on far more lots than the average collector, and also go after the trophy pieces, so I'm definitely not comparing myself to you, in terms of purchasing power. But the fact remains.

 

Here's yet another argument where Felix has, at best, drawn an incorrect conclusion and, at worst, again argued against himself. If I was winning everything in sight while bidding early and often, that might be evidence that accelerating price discovery forces prices higher at my expense. The fact that I'm not would, if anything, seem to disprove that theory. The fact that I was willing to pay $7K hammer for that X-Men #96 page at Heritage but not $7.5K hammer just means that I liked it at one price and didn't at another. Most likely, Felix's observation has absolutely nothing to do with price discovery and he's just pointed out a factoid which indicates that I'm price sensitive, bid on a lot of lots and know the market pretty well for what I bid on.

 

In most cases, I would tend to agree with Hari - most pieces will end up at about the same place regardless of when bids are placed, especially if the marketplace already has a good handle on value. I felt it would not be to my advantage to bid up the UXM #176 cover in the online session. But, what if I had? Would it have really changed the outcome? Or did playing my cards close to the vest just give me the false sense of playing it smart when it probably wouldn't have changed the result?

[Doc Joe]

I dont think there is a clear cut answer,

 

I did price discovery on the Captain Marvel cover; which I wanted badly, but not bad enough to go nuts for.

 

Was on holiday, trying to allocate money, was underbidder on Cap Marvel, at 14K or so,

 

was debating about whether to throw some bids at it or wait for the auction, decided to put in a bid, - outbid, now it was at 16K (or so) which was getting up there for what I wanted to pay,

 

still, just wanted to explore, threw another bid (again, the figures I cant quite recall exactly) and was outbid again. Now I was pretty sure I was out of the running. Which was annoying but also freeing so I could then make a deal for another piece.

 

The next day I was no longer the underbidder! So now I know tits not just me, and that was even more freeing that there was no way I was going to get this.

 

 

[Doc Joe]

One question I have though is

 

Is it different with Comiclink vs HA/Comicconnect with price exploration

 

(apart from the fact the comic connect is a nightmare to keep track of multiple auction going at the same time and not missing out on things with extended bidding, I have pretty much given up on them because of this, I'm sure I would endure if there was something I really wanted of course)

 

But with HA, at least you can feel things out, albeit very fast, at the end and you can edge up if needed.

 

Comiclink its pretty much how much do you want this, throw your max and if you really care add X%. That how they hope to get the good prices, two people throwing large get it all amounts and the underbidder sets the price.

 

I dont see much point in price exploration with comiclink, just get to the last minute and put in what you would pay!

[Nexus]

Sorry, Felix, but a poll would be unnecessary and wouldn't prove anything, other than there are other people out there who are denying the clear evidence to the contrary of your absolutist stance.

 

 

It's a simple question for the group, Gene. (But if I'm in your shoes, I wouldn't want to see the results, either. )

 

Anyway, you articulated my "absolutist stance" quite well:

 

So, sure, if you really want something, know what it should be worth, know you're willing to go above and beyond, there is usually no benefit to price discovery.

 

That's close enough. I don't believe that I ever said that price discovery was "never useful" (your own straw man). But I do believe its uses are limited. Perhaps those casting a wide net hoping to land a couple of fish, believe price discovery will help their chances. No problem. However, I tend to think that any price discovery proponent, with their feet held to the fire with their own UXM #176, will tend to not want price discovery. So I don't believe you're alone there. And that's really all I'm saying...nothing more absolute than that.

[Nexus]

 

Sorry, Felix, but a poll would be unnecessary and wouldn't prove anything, other than there are other people out there who are denying the clear evidence to the contrary of your absolutist stance.

 

When did Felix's stance become absolutist? The way I read this whole thing is that you like price discovery certain times because it helps you allocate funds. Felix is saying that has probably raised the price you have paid for the items. I don't think he is saying that is raised the price on every single one of your purchases but it has almost certainly raised the amount you have paid for your winnings as a whole. I think even you agree with this but you are just trying to point out that the information to you is worth the cost... which is fine,. Either way, this has been an entertaining thread. I think you have both made your point.

 

 

Much respect to Gene. We don't bid the same way, that's all. He's OK with paying for information and finds it useful (unless it's for "must-haves"); I'd rather not (and don't really find that information useful anyway). Just personal preferences. I don't always agree with Gene, but always enjoy hearing his take!

[Nexus]

I felt it would not be to my advantage to bid up the UXM #176 cover in the online session. But, what if I had? Would it have really changed the outcome? Or did playing my cards close to the vest just give me the false sense of playing it smart when it probably wouldn't have changed the result?

 

I believe most observers believe you got the cover at a very favorable price. There was definitely the potential for it to be less-than-favorable, especially if the Internet session had been more heated. In any event, there's a reason you didn't use price discovery here and I believe that reason applies more often than not when it comes to auctions. Fair enough?

[heartened]

When two of my friends disagree, the reality is that they are both correct.

 

In my opinion, where the early bidding ends is helpful when the final hammer price range is unknown. The MM page is a good example, because people don't know where the market is, and in effect this auction is part of making that market. Thus, early bidding is helpful because, on average, people tend to keep doing early internet bidding until the price hits 50-60% of the final auction price. In the case of MM, it went up to 14K or so and ended at 28K all-in. The fact that it went to 14K allowed me and others to know what it may take to get it, and that's where of course it ended at.

 

On the other hand, Gene's UXM cover early bidding went to around 8-9K, which showed us all that it would end at around 20K. In contrast to the MM cover, we all know the market for JRJR UXM covers has been around 20K for the past 5 years at least, so this information wasn't as helpful as in the case of the MM page, but it still told me that this cover wasn't going to be an outlier. Thus, the early bidding helped everyone, including Gene, know that the cover was going to end around 20K.

 

I would argue that there is no such thing really as "price discovery". All auctions end the early bidding at roughly 50-60% of the "potential" max hammer price (unless a bidding war ensues). Whatever you want to call it, thrill bidding, placehholding, price discovery, doesn't matter. It usually goes to this magical 50-60% no matter what. Now, sometimes it ends for much less than the projected max price, but it rarely goes over it. Thus, the early information (whether we call it price discovery or not) is important information and lets you allocate resources across multiple pieces in a single auction.

 

In my own case, I watch a lot of auctions, and I do bid on a few. The ones I bid on are the ones where I don't know what the final value may be, and thus I want to see if I can get to that 50-60% threshold where people tend to back off. That helps me know how much it'll take to get it come auction time.

 

By the way, notice how this type of bidding may not necessarily increase the final hammer price, it just gets you up to the 50-60% earlier in the process.

 

Hope that helps.

[heartened]

Also, for the onlookers, I don't think everyone realizes Gene and Felix and many of the others are good friends. This has been a great discussion, and really helpful to those people learning the ropes.

[Nexus]

I dont think there is a clear cut answer,

 

I did price discovery on the Captain Marvel cover; which I wanted badly, but not bad enough to go nuts for.

 

Was on holiday, trying to allocate money, was underbidder on Cap Marvel, at 14K or so,

 

was debating about whether to throw some bids at it or wait for the auction, decided to put in a bid, - outbid, now it was at 16K (or so) which was getting up there for what I wanted to pay,

 

still, just wanted to explore, threw another bid (again, the figures I cant quite recall exactly) and was outbid again. Now I was pretty sure I was out of the running. Which was annoying but also freeing so I could then make a deal for another piece.

 

The next day I was no longer the underbidder! So now I know tits not just me, and that was even more freeing that there was no way I was going to get this.

 

 

Yes, I agree with this. I actually said in my first post in this thread on this subject, that early bidding can push a price past a point someone's willing to pay. In which case, he doesn't need to expend any more mental energy on it and can move on. So again, I haven't been "absolutist" in my stance. In my case, I already know which lots I have a shot at, and which lots I don't, so this rarely comes into play for me.

 

I will throw Gene a bone and say this: I have the luxury of bidding live. I wouldn't participate if I couldn't. I NEVER reveal my max ahead of time. Too problematic. HOWEVER...for those who are unable to bid live, and are unable to adapt their bidding on the fly, and have multiple lots they're after, then having more information ahead of the live auction can be useful. Merry early Christmas, Gene!

 

In the end, we all gotta do what makes sense for us individually.