THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[delekkerste]

2 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

My English professor told me something I'll never forget. Things go in cycles. They are in they are out. Prices go up prices go down. It's life.

Are you reading the same thread as I am?  Don't you know that AF #15 prices CAN ONLY GO UP UP UP 4EVER?  Have you not read all the posts from people who cannot, in their darkest nightmares, even begin to fathom an alternative reality where this is not true? 

If everyone here listened to your English professor, this thread would have been over about 300 pages ago.   

[SC22]

29 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

I saw a girl in bell bottom jeans and a guy with the white lace up Converse sneakers the other day.

My English professor told me something I'll never forget. Things go in cycles. They are in they are out. Prices go up prices go down. It's life.

When was AC1 and TEC27 not in demand?

Edited October 24, 2017 by SC22

[SC22]

Just now, delekkerste said:

Are you reading the same thread as I am?  Don't you know that AF #15 prices CAN ONLY GO UP UP UP 4EVER?  Have you not read all the posts from people who cannot, in their darkest nightmares, even begin to fathom an alternative reality where this is not true? 

If everyone here listened to your English professor, this thread would have been over about 300 pages ago.   

Yes and the AF15 market would have also died a long time ago.

[lou_fine]

20 hours ago, lou_fine said:

On 10/22/2017 at 5:20 PM, delekkerste said:

On 10/22/2017 at 1:15 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, isn't both the entire stock market and comic book markets pretty much overvalued at these record high levels? 

 Just because something is at record highs does not necessarily mean it's overvalued.  But, in this case, yes, you are right. 

  At long last, I finally managed to get something right!!! 

Oh, I forgot since it's now October. 

How about the long-standing generalized theory that investors should buy in October, sell in March, and then take the next several months off for holidays until October comes around again? 

Rinse and repeat.............but get ready to take cover. 

Edited October 24, 2017 by lou_fine

[Jordysnordy]

57 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Does it really matter what future generations dig? Many of us may be gone in 20 to 30. 

Not necessarily on collecting the whole or parts of the titles. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see GAtor (Rick), Vintage Comics (Roy), and many others running to the nearest hobby store to get the latest Spidey. I mean, what number is it currently on? . But I can tell you what's in every balloon in the first 11 pages of AF15.

The guys I know that love the mainstream (new) comics would never spend 1000+ bucks on a vintage comic. You're talking about 2 different types of collectors. 

 

You are also missing my point. I’m talking about the market as a whole, not just keys, or moderns or toys or T-Shirts. Whether you agree or not, to a certain extent they are related. Yes the movies have been a huge boom to our hobby but can super heroes stand the test of time? That’s to be determined the future. Westerns once were king - how many are made today? Everyone wanted to be The Lone Ranger back in the day..... 

For ME, I believe younger readers are necessary or comics can go the way of stamp collecting. For the MOST part, young kids today are not reading comics but they will go to the movies. Will this translate into helping keep high values of comics?? That I can’t answer. But I do know that my love of comics has led me down the path to buy bigger ticket books along the way. Maybe I’m out to lunch on this but I don’t think younger people will look towards comics as an investment the way we do (I’m 48). Everyone around here knows me as a huge Spidey guy so I’m not knocking AF in any way. I have owned 6 copies over the last few years. Some to keep and some to flip because the market has been on a roll and it has been easy money so far. 

People look at baseball as a dying sport because of the demographics trending in the wrong way. Is it so far fetched to see comics going down this path? To keep things relevant the next generation has to be engaged or comics can fade away. Just because toys, movies and t-shirts are popular right now, that does not mean comics are not immune to a downward cycle. Loving a movie doesn’t necessarily mean one will run out and buy a big ticket comic. Sure some will invest in them as they would do in art or jewellery but I feel the majority of collectors truly love comics and read them and these are the people who are pouring most of the money into our hobby.

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

No, I believe that's a train carrying all of the known copies of AF 15 that are in existence. 

I think cgc cases are water tight. 

[lou_fine]

1 minute ago, NoMan said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

No, I believe that's a train carrying all of the known copies of AF 15 that are in existence. 

I think cgc cases are water tight. 

In that case, I think we should do a quality control check by having everybody here who owns a CGC slabbed copy of AF 15 to submerged them in a big tub of water for several days and then pull them back up to see if the books are still dry as a whistle. 

Unfortunately, I don't own a slabbed copy of AF 15 so everybody else's copy will have to do for this little test here. 

[paul747]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

The end is Nye!! Let's all rush to sell!! Sell, sell and sell!! The comic book prophecies have been foretold the signs of the end are here!! The Beast of Revelations has shown it's head!!

DUDE! Did you read what he wrote? 

[peewee22]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

Are you reading the same thread as I am?  Don't you know that AF #15 prices CAN ONLY GO UP UP UP 4EVER?  Have you not read all the posts from people who cannot, in their darkest nightmares, even begin to fathom an alternative reality where this is not true? 

If everyone here listened to your English professor, this thread would have been over about 300 pages ago.   

I never said AF15 prices won't go down. But I don't believe prices will tank. If you outlay an AF15 in 9.0 or an A1/T27 in 5.0, etc, at a reasonable market price, I believe there will always be a potential buyer.

[paul747]

33 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

You are also missing my point. I’m talking about the market as a whole, not just keys, or moderns or toys or T-Shirts. Whether you agree or not, to a certain extent they are related. Yes the movies have been a huge boom to our hobby but can super heroes stand the test of time? That’s to be determined the future. Westerns once were king - how many are made today? Everyone wanted to be The Lone Ranger back in the day..... 

For ME, I believe younger readers are necessary or comics can go the way of stamp collecting. For the MOST part, young kids today are not reading comics but they will go to the movies. Will this translate into helping keep high values of comics?? That I can’t answer. But I do know that my love of comics has led me down the path to buy bigger ticket books along the way. Maybe I’m out to lunch on this but I don’t think younger people will look towards comics as an investment the way we do (I’m 48). Everyone around here knows me as a huge Spidey guy so I’m not knocking AF in any way. I have owned 6 copies over the last few years. Some to keep and some to flip because the market has been on a roll and it has been easy money so far. 

People look at baseball as a dying sport because of the demographics trending in the wrong way. Is it so far fetched to see comics going down this path? To keep things relevant the next generation has to be engaged or comics can fade away. Just because toys, movies and t-shirts are popular right now, that does not mean comics are not immune to a downward cycle. Loving a movie doesn’t necessarily mean one will run out and buy a big ticket comic. Sure some will invest in them as they would do in art or jewellery but I feel the majority of collectors truly love comics and read them and these are the people who are pouring most of the money into our hobby.

I agree to a point. I also believe that like star wars, marvel comics has a huge collector base that are not comic people but are Disney collectors.

Edited October 24, 2017 by paul747
.

[paul747]

2 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

I never said AF15 prices won't go down. But I don't believe prices will tank. If you outlay an AF15 in 9.0 or an A1/T27 in 5.0, etc, at a reasonable market price, I believe there will always be a potential buyer.

Again, I think he said , maybe 30 percent. I think that could be possible

[peewee22]

2 minutes ago, paul747 said:

Again, I think he said , maybe 30 percent. I think that could be possible

If it goes down 30%, it will eventually go back up. The cycle thing again.

Edited October 24, 2017 by peewee22

[SC22]

22 minutes ago, paul747 said:

DUDE! Did you read what he wrote? 

Yes I was making a joke!!

[exitmusicblue]

4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I am not congenitally bearish by any means - I was 99%+ invested in stocks until about March of this year (currently about 77% invested, though, the higher prices go, the more I plan to sell).  I bought Bitcoin last year at $600...and sold it at $1200.  Made good money, but not great money.   I recognized its merits but got off the train when I felt it had become fully and fairly valued.  Did I see this magnitude of a bubble coming in Bitcoin?  Obviously no.  But, now that we are in an obvious bubble, it's, well, obvious that it's not going to end well.  Similarly, few thought we'd be at current AF #15 prices in 2017, but, now that we are, even many who are predisposed to be bullish on comics are saying, "whoa, hey now, this is kind of crazy."

Most people here seem to think a comic market bust can't ever happen.  As for the few that do think it can and will happen...I don't think any of us has a crystal ball.  But, in very broad strokes, I think it will happen like Hemingway said:  gradually, and then suddenly.  As in the last downturn, people will initially freeze and sit on their hands to see if the dip is temporary and if they can just ride through it.  We'll probably be months off of peak prices and it still won't be clear to many that a correction has even begun (much as the Fed didn't see the last recession coming even after hindsight had shown we were already in recession at the time).  Eventually, though, some people will end up selling, prices will soften, the market will get illiquid as some sit on their inventory and others struggle to find buyers.  

I think prices are so frothy (some cryptocurrencies up more than 100,000%; Bitcoin up 800% in a year; AF #15s up 20-30% YTD on top of already years of big gains (and remember that, unlike a stock of a company which builds value every year, an AF #15 will never be more than the same AF #15); stocks trading at multiples that are between the 1st and 4th highest ever recorded depending on the metric; interest rates low or even negative in most countries; property prices in the hot markets waaaaay above mid-2000s peak prices, etc.) that the next bust will be substantial.  Not just 10-20%, probably 30-40% at least in the major asset classes, with probably most cryptocurrencies and the junkiest stocks down 80-90%+.  I expect Bitcoin to fall 75%+ from wherever it eventually tops out, which would be pretty par for the course for a burst bubble based on historical precedent.  

As for comics?  If everything else above comes to pass (or any semblance thereof), I suspect that, sure, AF #15s can easily fall 30% or more from peak levels.  People don't think the best of the best art & collectibles can't tank in price?  Is everyone here too young to remember what happened to the art market from 1990-96?  Or the market for Ferraris, trophy properties and all the other stuff that Japanese and other buying had inflated up to absurd levels by the end of the '80s?  What goes up to crazy levels can also come back down.  It's like billionaire investor Howard Marks said (paraphrasing):  no asset is so inherently good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price.  Or, as I like to say:  it's not just what you buy, it's when you buy that counts.  My corollary to that is that any fool can get lucky and buy low - very few are smart and/or lucky enough to sell high, though.  

Folks forget that the fan base for this stuff expands by the year.  There are waaaay way more Spidey fans today than there were 20, even 10 years ago.  Meanwhile new supply of  AF15?  Naw.  And the march continues, domestically + internationally.   Unlike with the art market, there is constant mainstream exposure.  Unlike with old school Disney characters, many fans never outgrow their childhood fave superheroes.

 

 

 

[SC22]

5 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said:

Folks forget that the fan base for this stuff expands by the year.  There are waaaay way more Spidey fans today than there were 20, even 10 years ago.  Meanwhile new supply of  AF15?  Naw.  And the march continues, domestically + internationally.   Unlike with the art market, there is constant mainstream exposure.  Unlike with old school Disney characters, many fans never outgrow their childhood fave superheroes.

 

 

 

Bingo!! We have a winner!!

[delekkerste]

6 hours ago, exitmusicblue said:

Folks forget that the fan base for this stuff expands by the year.  There are waaaay way more Spidey fans today than there were 20, even 10 years ago.  Meanwhile new supply of  AF15?  Naw.  And the march continues, domestically + internationally.   Unlike with the art market, there is constant mainstream exposure.  Unlike with old school Disney characters, many fans never outgrow their childhood fave superheroes.

 

 

 

It is true that there are a lot more Spidey fans now than 20 years ago, but, you and others keep conflating fans of the movies & merchandising with fans of the comics.  None of those new fans who only get their Spidey fix from movies and merchandising is a potential AF #15 buyer.  Yes, the greater sized fan base may embolden existing comic collectors (or maybe even lapsed comic collectors re-entering the fold) to stretch and buy an AF #15 (which is exactly what has been happening over the past 15 years), but, this cohort is not growing meaningfully and has, on balance, aged considerably since the first Spidey movie was released in 2002.  

6 hours ago, SC22 said:

Bingo!! We have a winner!!

Just wishing something to be true does not make it true.  

[zhamlau]

7 hours ago, exitmusicblue said:

Folks forget that the fan base for this stuff expands by the year.  There are waaaay way more Spidey fans today than there were 20, even 10 years ago.  Meanwhile new supply of  AF15?  Naw.  And the march continues, domestically + internationally.   Unlike with the art market, there is constant mainstream exposure.  Unlike with old school Disney characters, many fans never outgrow their childhood fave superheroes.

 

 

 

I think there is some validity to that, but they wont all be buyers of the comics. I sometimes wonder if you added up all the online comics, independents/alternative work, specialty, and mainstream comic makers would it be close to say the mid 90s comic book market?

I don't see it collapsing and being worth 10cents on the dollar anytime in any of our lifetimes. But I do see it slowing down and regressing price wise in say 10-15 years. With the new fan bases being born, I can see the high end boutique books like AF15 and high quality original art holding value and maybe growing as opposed to commons and low grades semi-keys. There will be more of a class of collectors just wanting the museum grade material driving that up, but runs and low grades will lose willing buyers and so their price will fall.

Its funny, stratification seems to be the key to our culture and economy.

[gregreece]

Thought I'd weigh in as a dealer. We have many, many 25-50 year olds buying 4 and 5 figure comics who never read them as kids. And we have many 24-30 year olds buying all kinds of Golden Age. The market has grown exponentially in the last 20 years. Interestingly, there are a larger % than you might think who got in as a result of the movies. And they are not all motivated by future profit potential. They simply have the disposable income and enjoy being around the hobby. Couple that with long time collectors and you have tremendous demand for limited supply. I'll state the obvious: comics were not manufactured collectibles (beanie babies, etc). What's out there is out there. I think we will see an ever widening gap between the blue chips and everything else. There will be break out books of course, but an Action Comics #1, Detective Comics #27, Amazing Fantasy #15 etc. have transcended comicdom and are trophies for the wealthy whether they've read a comic or not in many cases. Will their be corrections in price going forward? Likely. But if I were a betting man I'd bet on the blue chips 15-20 years out. I've enjoyed following the thread. Best, Greg

[ComicConnoisseur]

Respectfully, what a lot of you old-timers might not realize is the power of social media. These DC and especially Marvel characters are like the new rock stars. They get talked about daily which continually creates interest in these characters.

Comic book sales are probably much bigger with the Comixology and Marvel Unlimited apps that bring in new fans as well.

Also baseball is not dead. It continues to break attendance records and is talked about daily on social media. One of my biggest money hauls this year was continually cashing in on Aaron Judge rookie cards. 

So yeah with social media these comic book characters will be even more popular as new fans are being introduced to them every day.

Conclusion AF #15 in any grade is and will be a great investment now or in the future.

 

[yanksarod22]

Totally agreee....like one high end dealer keeps saying these prices will be a bargain in 5 years