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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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Started by HarveySwick,

14,481 posts in this topic

zhamlau

zhamlau

Posted
Posted
On 3/10/2017 at 2:49 PM, Iceman399 said:

No there are several other Ga books that out preform it point for point. 

Bats 1, supes 1, aa16, asc 8, marvel 1, just to name a few. 

Fair enough there are some golden age firsts that can out pace it on the straight away. But when you look at the numbers graded versus price on these books I think the story gets more complex.  AF15 crushes each of these books in two areas: number of copies on the market graded and price paid for highest copy. I would say on some level this proves the book actually vastly outperforms all other books when taken into consideration ease to get one relatively speaking and for high grade copy potential value. That $1.1 million price occurred back in 2011 almost 6 full years ago. If you take a look at an AF15 5.5 for example. It went in that same era for $13,000 US, it now goes for $33,000 and we have had a confirmed sale of $41,500 last week. from high in 2011 to high in 2017 (just the start of the year also) its gone up over 300%. I'm sure if the highest known graded copy came up for sale now it would do about $2 million dollars. I don't think the highest copy of any of the books mentioned would go for that much, even the AA16 which i think has a 9.4 putting it more in line with top end AF15 (I of course could be wrong because speculation is just that). 

Depending on how you define "out perform" I think AF15 stacks up favorably to any book other than Tec27 or Action 1. Im not even looking at the ROI year after year which for the AF15 is leaps and bounds over any of these books.

 

Issue-------------Highest Price Paid----Number of graded copies

Batman 1-------$567,000 (2012)-----------------236 copies graded

Superman 1---$358,000(2016)-----------------129 copies graded

Marvel 1--------$227,000(2010)-----------------59 Copies graded

ASC 8------------$411,000(2016)-----------------141 Copies Graded

AllAmer16-----$216,000(2013)-----------------47 copies Graded

AF15-------------$1,100,000(2011)---------------2656 Graded Copies

 

Now, to be fair many of these books don't go into the 9's grade wise. But I think that's what helps the lower valued books price wise. The 5.5 for superman for example blow away the price of a 5.5 AF15...however that 5.5 Superman is the highest graded copy sold according the GPA (and 3rd highest in existence from what I read) so its not fair to compare it to the 230th best example which the average 5.5 is.

 

Anyway, fun discussion. I'm still shocked at what this book does. Hell at this rate qualifiers removed it might end up straight up number 3 in the next few years.

If all of these books had the highest known graded copy go up for sale, would the AF15 beat them all? That i think is key. Because that's the level playing field. Only 1-3 copies of each book in highest grade, curve flattens out and just straight fan desirability comes into play. Im thinking the af15 would win against any of these, no? Oh well, its a fun topic!

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Aman619

Aman619

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Posted (edited)

Math is hard.  13k up to 41k is not up 300%.  The price rose 28K which, compared to 13k is slightly more than 200% increase.  And as you describe, the differences in the grades can't be ignored. A 5.5 AF15 is a very different animal than a 5.5 Superman 1.  Your chart of highest prices paid seems to be missing many sales that aren't recorded on GPA. And the million dollar sale of AF15 occurred when it was the sole unmatchable 9.6... right now there are 4 9.6s. I think the next 9.6 sale will be for a million again... but not anywhere close to 2 million... and only because only 1 of them has come up for sale (Privately) in 6 years. The price was well below 1M, but now that a 9.2 sells for 450K, a 9.6 will no longer be had for 700K like the last one.

...but I agree that the demand for AF15 in ANY grade is staggeringly unexpected!

Edited by Aman619
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zhamlau

zhamlau

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Posted
6 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Math is hard.  13k up to 41k is not up 300%.  The price rose 28K which, compared to 13k is slightly more than 200% increase.  And as you describe, the differences in the grades can't be ignored. A 5.5 AF15 is a very different animal than a 5.5 Superman 1.  Your chart of highest prices paid seems to be missing many sales that aren't recorded on GPA. And the million dollar sale of AF15 occurred when it was the sole unmatchable 9.6... right now there are 4 9.6s. I think the next 9.6 sale will be for a million again... but not anywhere close to 2 million... and only because only 1 of them has come up for sale (Privately) in 6 years. The price was well below 1M, but now that a 9.2 sells for 450K, a 9.6 will no longer be had for 700K like the last one.

...but I agree that the demand for AF15 in ANY grade is staggeringly unexpected!

Agreed on you analysis of percentages, what i was saying was that it was the price was 300% of the original price. Its not that math was hard its just there was a misunderstanding of what we were discussing :-)

As for their being only one at the time, I wonder about the idea you put forward if it can be the sole justification of the price. Was the market really unaware there were multiple copies out there or could be that would grade a 9.6? I mean, its a super common book and as we have seen the population has exploded seemingly since then. Did someone bid a lifetime of earnings based on thinking "ill have the only one ever"?

As for GPA, I've heard the argument before on private sales being much different that public sales, but I was going off of GPA cause its a quick easy to quantify no questions list people could see.

I like the idea at looking at top 3 or so copies of each because the numeric grade almost doesn't matter its about collector/investor desirability for the book its just what to people want. I really think seeing the percentage increases we are seeing in much more common easy to buy copies will play themselves out in very high dollar ultra rare copies as well. More buyers of course for the "commons" below 40k, agreed, but there are probably also more players in the market now for the 7 figure buys today.

Such a fun topic. Man i wish i could afford to buy more than one of these books lol.

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Aman619

Aman619

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Thanx for not taking offense to my notes on your post.  The thing is, as you describe why you used GPA for your numbers, is that there's so much more "reading between the lines" of all public data in our hobby. One must stay up with ALL pricing data to get the full picture and make smart decisions when buying or selling, or even guessing trends in values. GPA is great at what it does, but since many big sales are kept private by dealers (with only some of them noted on the boards) and many large auction sites do not share any sales data with GPA, one must take this into consideration when drawing conclusions about what you CAN see on their site.  GPA is a great tool.  But it's most accurate for books that trade often on EBay, like slabbed Common stuff, or set records on Heritage. Truth is that even today we don't have one reliable and comprehensive sales tool we can all use because the comics market has not yet achieved the transparency of other markets.. maybe someday. Just maybe..

 

the million dollar AF15 sale WAS done because it truly was thought to be the one and only 9.6.  Many of us have made this mistake, not fully realizing the potential for more high grade copies out there, and the impact of pressing potential to existing copies. Buying the current highest graded copy today carries with it a far more realistic expectation that your purchase will not stay alone at the top.  But on a book by book basis, one can make a pretty good wager with their hard earned money whether any book is truly scarce enough in any particular grade, for the long term.  I've bought 9.0s many years ago that are still top dog.  Also, the buyer didn't use hard earned money to buy it, so it was not as risky as it would be for the rest of us.

 

we know and understand a lot more now about the slabbed marketplace than 10-15 years ago when CGC began. 9.4s were the safe high grade level for Silver Age runs.  9.6 was actually considered a freakishly ridiculous high grade comic where " the Madness begins!" As in attempting to complete a run in 9.6. And this thinking was used for a run filler book like say Avengers 44, let alone an AF15!

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

Thanx for not taking offense to my notes on your post.  The thing is, as you describe why you used GPA for your numbers, is that there's so much more "reading between the lines" of all public data in our hobby. One must stay up with ALL pricing data to get the full picture and make smart decisions when buying or selling, or even guessing trends in values. GPA is great at what it does, but since many big sales are kept private by dealers (with only some of them noted on the boards) and many large auction sites do not share any sales data with GPA, one must take this into consideration when drawing conclusions about what you CAN see on their site.  GPA is a great tool.  But it's most accurate for books that trade often on EBay, like slabbed Common stuff, or set records on Heritage. Truth is that even today we don't have one reliable and comprehensive sales tool we can all use because the comics market has not yet achieved the transparency of other markets.. maybe someday. Just maybe..

 

the million dollar AF15 sale WAS done because it truly was thought to be the one and only 9.6.  Many of us have made this mistake, not fully realizing the potential for more high grade copies out there, and the impact of pressing potential to existing copies. Buying the current highest graded copy today carries with it a far more realistic expectation that your purchase will not stay alone at the top.  But on a book by book basis, one can make a pretty good wager with their hard earned money whether any book is truly scarce enough in any particular grade, for the long term.  I've bought 9.0s many years ago that are still top dog.  Also, the buyer didn't use hard earned money to buy it, so it was not as risky as it would be for the rest of us.

 

we know and understand a lot more now about the slabbed marketplace than 10-15 years ago when CGC began. 9.4s were the safe high grade level for Silver Age runs.  9.6 was actually considered a freakishly ridiculous high grade comic where " the Madness begins!" As in attempting to complete a run in 9.6. And this thinking was used for a run filler book like say Avengers 44, let alone an AF15!

While I agree with what you're saying for the most part, I also personally subscribe to the notion that public sales (or at least sales that were publicized) trump all.  My understanding is that the second sale of the AF 15 9.6  was neither public nor publicized so I give it about as much weight as it deserves as such as a strictly "private" transaction.

Also, by the time the public sale of the first AF 15 9.6 did occur, CGC had been around for what, 10 or 11 years ?  By then people were well acquainted with the perils of over paying for a book based solely on it being the "one highest graded" copy.  

Truth is, whether there is just one or four copies , a 9.6 copy of AF 15 is still a top of the census copy, that basically never comes available, and will probably always be one of the single most desired books in all of the hobby.

Do I think the next 9.6 copy to come up for sale publicly will fetch $2M though? 

Nah.

But certainly something in the $1.3-$1.5MM range for sure.  2c

-J.

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paul747

paul747

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/10/2017 at 11:17 PM, comicquant said:

If there is potential for a bump this one is it.  Graded in 2002, probably hasn't been pressed, definitely hasn't been dry-cleaned.  A clean and press and I don't think a 5.0/5.5 is out of reach by any stretch.   

Your book?  Book is real nice for grade but worn . The smear on from cover and the color breaking large corner creases along with the other defects will keep this from getting a large bump . The bump is almost priced in at this point.

Edited by paul747
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zhamlau

zhamlau

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Posted
4 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Thanx for not taking offense to my notes on your post.  The thing is, as you describe why you used GPA for your numbers, is that there's so much more "reading between the lines" of all public data in our hobby. One must stay up with ALL pricing data to get the full picture and make smart decisions when buying or selling, or even guessing trends in values. GPA is great at what it does, but since many big sales are kept private by dealers (with only some of them noted on the boards) and many large auction sites do not share any sales data with GPA, one must take this into consideration when drawing conclusions about what you CAN see on their site.  GPA is a great tool.  But it's most accurate for books that trade often on EBay, like slabbed Common stuff, or set records on Heritage. Truth is that even today we don't have one reliable and comprehensive sales tool we can all use because the comics market has not yet achieved the transparency of other markets.. maybe someday. Just maybe..

 

the million dollar AF15 sale WAS done because it truly was thought to be the one and only 9.6.  Many of us have made this mistake, not fully realizing the potential for more high grade copies out there, and the impact of pressing potential to existing copies. Buying the current highest graded copy today carries with it a far more realistic expectation that your purchase will not stay alone at the top.  But on a book by book basis, one can make a pretty good wager with their hard earned money whether any book is truly scarce enough in any particular grade, for the long term.  I've bought 9.0s many years ago that are still top dog.  Also, the buyer didn't use hard earned money to buy it, so it was not as risky as it would be for the rest of us.

 

we know and understand a lot more now about the slabbed marketplace than 10-15 years ago when CGC began. 9.4s were the safe high grade level for Silver Age runs.  9.6 was actually considered a freakishly ridiculous high grade comic where " the Madness begins!" As in attempting to complete a run in 9.6. And this thinking was used for a run filler book like say Avengers 44, let alone an AF15!

Oh Man, its hard for me to take offense :-) Besides i totally knew were you were coming from. I think You make very solid points from start to end. Hell all im doing is speculating. Also i could have that recency bias going on, seeing how much AF15 has moved in the last 3 years I might be pulling out ranges that just aint gonna happen.

As it stands, ill stay by this one. I full expect a 9.6 AF15 next time it sells to hit 2million (or very d-mn close). Call me crazy, but just watching what lower grades are doing across the board I think that same appetite exists in the ever expanding speculator class that is taking over parts of the hobby. Ive seen it in comic art, i would assume its happening here too.

 

Again, fun topic.

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Aman619

Aman619

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Posted

I don't think the next sale hits 2M... but it ought get there.  But the buyers will argue for a lower price due to the plentiful nature of 4 9.6s.  I suppose a smart seller (or dealer) will counter that if you buy the first 9.6 to come to market, you are in the drivers seat because it will set the benchmark for the next copies to beat!  All future buyers will have to pay more...

but, in the million dollar plus price range, the buying pool isn't quibbling about price too much.  Yes yes they aren't stupid etc etc, Im not saying that.... but if you are buying 1M++ comics with cash, you've got plenty of assets besides your comics, making it a more a "fun" thing, not as much an investment where losing $$$ would keep you up at night..

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thedude

thedude

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

5.5 sells 41,500

6.0 sells 43,500

6.0 sells for 42,000

Was this book undervalued for so long or are there just that many more folks playing the comic market now?

AF15 prices rise for 3 main reasons, 

1.  those who wish to own and keep a copy

2. even at these increasing prices, it's still a very good book to flip for profit, since it seems to increase yearly/monthly.

3. collectors have realized (for awhile now) that it's in the top 3 books as far as 1st Superhero appearances. along with Action 1 and Tec 27. no matter if it's not as old of a book and easier to get.

I've owned 3 copies and really wish I had kept my first two.

2c

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