THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[VintageComics]

4 hours ago, zhamlau said:

But i think the idea on this one is that its pre-press allowed graded a 4.5, and it was graded brutally hard judging be appearance. If this is as it looks its gonna be a 5.5 with ccs pressing so they are bidding accordingly. If they think that I bet its going to 30,000 on final bid.

And this is a terrific reason why outliers shouldn't be used at the new bar for a price point.

[zhamlau]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

And this is a terrific reason why outliers shouldn't be used at the new bar for a price point.

And its a unique circumstance that rarely will come up. Outlier prices on standard in grade copies I think have value. But this guy isn't really a 4.5 unlike the vast majority of CGC books that are the grade they report to be (and I'm not talking a half grade off). If equal quality 4.5's come up and one sells in public auction for 30k and one for 24k within weeks of each other, that is telling a story that has consequences. Ill listen to that. It might not be the rule going forward but it didn't happen in a vacuum. But when one book is a 5.5 hiding in a 4.5 case (which is very rare obviously) than its so different it shouldn't even be considered in the discussion.

Edited March 15, 2017 by zhamlau

[jjfversion1]

What are the odds that something is terribly wrong on the inside of the book that we just don't see?

[Dark Knight]

I feel that the grade is right on for this copy.  I was comparing my copy to the one on CC and they both have the same type of strong eye appeal for a 4.5.  I dunno if anyone noticed the long faint triangular crease at the bottom right hand corner of the book.  I think that it is long enough that I cannot see an upgrade potential among other defects on the book.

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, Dark Knight said:

 I dunno if anyone noticed the long faint triangular crease at the bottom right hand corner of the book.  I think that it is long enough that I cannot see an upgrade potential among other defects on the book.

You can have a crease that size on a 6.5. I don't think that keeps the book from upgrading into the upper VG range.

[VintageComics]

3 hours ago, zhamlau said:

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

And this is a terrific reason why outliers shouldn't be used at the new bar for a price point.

And its a unique circumstance that rarely will come up. Outlier prices on standard in grade copies I think have value. But this guy isn't really a 4.5 unlike the vast majority of CGC books that are the grade they report to be (and I'm not talking a half grade off). If equal quality 4.5's come up and one sells in public auction for 30k and one for 24k within weeks of each other, that is telling a story that has consequences. Ill listen to that. It might not be the rule going forward but it didn't happen in a vacuum. But when one book is a 5.5 hiding in a 4.5 case (which is very rare obviously) than its so different it shouldn't even be considered in the discussion.

So you more or less agree with me.

For me an outlier is when it doesn't fall into a 'normal' range.

And  when there are perceptible reasons for why the price not falling into a normal range then that is enough for me to discount it as a 'normal' sale.

[namisgr]

The book was graded a 4.5 because of not only the corner flaws, but the two long vertical reading creases that run along the front cover near the edge of the spine.  No amount of pressing will take them out.  I could see the book in a 5.0 new label slab, but would think the book was overgraded if the number was any higher.

[VintageComics]

There's a middle of the road CGC 4.5 in this week's Heritage auction. No MC, OW pages, no really glaring defects.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/amazing-fantasy-15-marvel-1962-cgc-vg-45-off-white-pages/a/121712-13208.s?ctrack=1087068&type=spotlight-6--comic--news--tem031517#

If everyone believes that a 4.5 is now all of a sudden a $30K book then this one should sell for close to that as well.

[trashcollector]

Here's my copy

[Spiderturtle]

36 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

There's a middle of the road CGC 4.5 in this week's Heritage auction. No MC, OW pages, no really glaring defects.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/amazing-fantasy-15-marvel-1962-cgc-vg-45-off-white-pages/a/121712-13208.s?ctrack=1087068&type=spotlight-6--comic--news--tem031517#

If everyone believes that a 4.5 is now all of a sudden a $30K book then this one should sell for close to that as well.

It should if it also had an option of 6 month zero interest payment plan

[Spyderfan]

Welcome to the club trashcollector!  

[cheta42]

26 minutes ago, trashcollector said:

Here's my copy

Welcome to the club. Nice book!

[VintageComics]

37 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

It should if it also had an option of 6 month zero interest payment plan

Do you think a 6 month zero interest payment plan causes someone to bid 40% or 50% over fair market value? I don't.

I think that some people think that this is an old label, a tightly graded copy and an upgrade candidate. That's the only explanation I can understand under the normal laws of valuation.

If people think that 4.5 copies are now worth $30K then I'm going to say that it's not healthy and the sky is about to start falling.

[zhamlau]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

So you more or less agree with me.

For me an outlier is when it doesn't fall into a 'normal' range.

And  when there are perceptible reasons for why the price not falling into a normal range then that is enough for me to discount it as a 'normal' sale.

well I wouldn't call it an "outlier" price example because that implies its like a normal 4.5. This is a 5.5 hiding in a 4.5 case by all appearances. Had it been a standard run of the mill 4.5 selling than yeah. But this appears to the bidders to be a pretty clear under-grade and they are treating it as such. They are bidding as if it will get 5.5, not that they want to set a new price for a 4.5 cause "they gotta have it". Its gonna get cracked, maybe pressed, and resubmitted based on the bidding we are seeing.

I agree with you its a rare circumstance if that's what you mean though.

[VintageComics]

2 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

well I wouldn't call it an "outlier" price example because that implies its like a normal 4.5. This is a 5.5 hiding in a 4.5 case by all appearances. Had it been a standard run of the mill 4.5 selling than yeah. But this appears to the bidders to be a pretty clear under-grade and they are treating it as such. They are bidding as if it will get 5.5, not that they want to set a new price for a 4.5 cause "they gotta have it". Its gonna get cracked, maybe pressed, and resubmitted based on the bidding we are seeing.

I agree with you its a rare circumstance if that's what you mean though.

Gotcha. Not an outlier. Not even a 4.5 price. Understood.

[Spiderturtle]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Do you think a 6 month zero interest payment plan causes someone to bid 40% or 50% over fair market value? I don't.

I think that some people think that this is an old label, a tightly graded copy and an upgrade candidate. That's the only explanation I can understand under the normal laws of valuation.

If people think that 4.5 copies are now worth $30K then I'm going to say that it's not healthy and the sky is about to start falling.

I agree, but for me playing the upgrade game is too risky.  But for someone from  california, i would bid higher on the cc copy b/c i wouldn't get taxed the 10 percent like the ha copy and zero interest for 6 months is nice.   That could easily swing the price $5k right there.  Maybe a normal 4.5 should go for $22k vs the $27k 

[Gotham Kid]

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

4 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

It should if it also had an option of 6 month zero interest payment plan

Do you think a 6 month zero interest payment plan causes someone to bid 40% or 50% over fair market value? I don't.

I think that some people think that this is an old label, a tightly graded copy and an upgrade candidate. That's the only explanation I can understand under the normal laws of valuation.

If people think that 4.5 copies are now worth $30K then I'm going to say that it's not healthy and the sky is about to start falling.

+1 on this Roy

[Spiderturtle]

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Do you think a 6 month zero interest payment plan causes someone to bid 40% or 50% over fair market value? I don't.

I think that some people think that this is an old label, a tightly graded copy and an upgrade candidate. That's the only explanation I can understand under the normal laws of valuation.

If people think that 4.5 copies are now worth $30K then I'm going to say that it's not healthy and the sky is about to start falling.

Maybe the buyer won't mind if it remains a 4.5.  A recent cc cgc 5.0 auction went for $30k, and that copy i believe had rusty nails.  Anything is possible when it comes to strong eye appeal copies

[G.A.tor]

I've sold multiple 4.5s for 20 and 22k in last 6 months. And I have the best of the 3 cgc 4.5s still available ...even I don't think a 4.5 is even a 25k book let alone 30+.  One sale does not a market make. Geesh. 

[chrisco37]

14 hours ago, jjfversion1 said:

What are the odds that something is terribly wrong on the inside of the book that we just don't see?

I would hope that anyone bidding on a book like this would pony-up for the notes.    Nothing like spending that kind of money thinking you've got upgrade potential, only to find out you don't when you crack it open.