THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

The notion that the sole reason that AF 15 is experiencing a pricing surge is because evidently any copy that sells for a strong price simply must "upgradeable" is a rather absurd generalization that presumes a lot, based on virtually no tangible evidence and is demonstrably false with regard to almost every copy in question.  

As I said, it's easy to track forensically when you remove all the distractions (like upgradeable copies, copies that didn't sell for record numbers, etc).

No tangible evidence? I held the 9.0 in my hands and made the decision that it looked upgradeable to me 2 weeks before the auction ended. I think I know a thing or two about how to grade a comic.  

What's absurd is to think a $450K 9.4 sale (an all time record) and then a 9.2 $450K sale a few months later (for the same price as the 9.4 a few months prior) and then a 9.0 $400K sale is normal market dynamics or based on movie interest. AF #15 has been movie bumping since the mid 2000's but this isn't a movie bump IMO.

"Demonstrably false?" No, you're now throwing around empty words in an effort to bolster your argument like you always do.

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

What triggered this price surge?   The same thing that triggered the Hulk 1 price surge a couple years ago.  Two very strong, unexpectedly high sales results in 9.0+ grades that got everybody's attention, creating a fresh demand that has rolled all the way down to the lowest grades.

What happened with Hulk #1 was entirely different.

Hulk #1 is a much tougher book VF range and higher and when a 9.2 copy hit the market it sold for a record price because you may not have another opportunity to buy another. There is only one highest 9.4 copy.

There are 3 AF #15's in 9.6 and 3 in 9.4 and many more in 9.2/9.0 - if you really want one they are much easier to find.

[VintageComics]

33 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Most probably because those other comic book sites are not as high profile as the 3 major comic book auction sites, especially when it comes to Metro and CC.

It doesn't matter who has one for sale. Google trumps CC. If Storms, or myself or anyone has a copy for sale people will find it.

[VintageComics]

20 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

Even chipped copies are rising. I don't believe it is all "upgradeable" because it is not 100% guarantee.

Of course they are.

Because the perception is that this is the new market baseline for AF #15.

Like I said a few weeks ago, if the market accepts those 3 record sales as the new baseline all prices will rise.

My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

[lou_fine]

3 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

What's absurd is to think a $450K 9.4 sale (an all time record) and then a 9.2 $450K sale a few months later (for the same price as the 9.4 a few months prior) and then a 9.0 $400K sale is normal market dynamics or based on movie interest.

Roy;

I'll tell you what's absurd. 

Is it true that the housing market is now so hot in your area that some homes are now even selling for a million dollars over their asking price.   

[VintageComics]

1 minute ago, lou_fine said:

Roy;

I'll tell you what's absurd. 

Is it true that the housing market is now so hot in your area that some homes are now even selling for a million dollars over their asking price.   

[SC22]

18 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Of course they are.

Because the perception is that this is the new market baseline for AF #15.

Like I said a few weeks ago, if the market accepts those 3 record sales as the new baseline all prices will rise.

My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

Just how many sales will it take to convince you that AF15 is rising in value in all grades.

[SC22]

23 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

As I said, it's easy to track forensically when you remove all the distractions (like upgradeable copies, copies that didn't sell for record numbers, etc).

No tangible evidence? I held the 9.0 in my hands and made the decision that it looked upgradeable to me 2 weeks before the auction ended. I think I know a thing or two about how to grade a comic.  

What's absurd is to think a $450K 9.4 sale (an all time record) and then a 9.2 $450K sale a few months later (for the same price as the 9.4 a few months prior) and then a 9.0 $400K sale is normal market dynamics or based on movie interest. AF #15 has been movie bumping since the mid 2000's but this isn't a movie bump IMO.

"Demonstrably false?" No, you're now throwing around empty words in an effort to bolster your argument like you always do.

What happened with Hulk #1 was entirely different.

Hulk #1 is a much tougher book VF range and higher and when a 9.2 copy hit the market it sold for a record price because you may not have another opportunity to buy another. There is only one highest 9.4 copy.

There are 3 AF #15's in 9.6 and 3 in 9.4 and many more in 9.2/9.0 - if you really want one they are much easier to find.

Easy to find that is not true not many 9.0's and higher come up for sale and when they do you are for sure not guaranteed to win one.

[Iceman399]

Did hulk1962/Supergirl get a new screen name to SC22?

[VintageComics]

1 minute ago, SC22 said:

20 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

Just how many sales will it take to convince you that AF15 is rising in value in all grades.

I didn't say that AF #15 is not rising in all grades.

I said that in my opinion the initial surge last month was not caused by regular market demand, it was caused by several copies being either above average specimens or upgradeable copies making it look like record prices for normal copies.

Prices now are rising, but they are rising because of the record prices set in that last CC auction.

[VintageComics]

3 minutes ago, SC22 said:

Easy to find that is not true not many 9.0's and higher come up for sale and when they do you are for sure not guaranteed to win one.

If someone wants to find a high grade copy they're much easier to find than Hulk #1.

And I'd bet that if someone really wanted one they could find one. I know I could.

[SC22]

5 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I didn't say that AF #15 is not rising in all grades.

I said that in my opinion the initial surge last month was not caused by regular market demand, it was caused by several copies being either above average specimens or upgradeable copies making it look like record prices for normal copies.

Prices now are rising, but they are rising because of the record prices set in that last CC auction.

Same happened with the 1952 Tops Mickey Mantle cards....people where skeptic at first of a sudden 200% increase in all grades then it became the new norm and in continues to rise.

Edited April 19, 2017 by SC22

[Dark Knight]

10 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Of course they are.

Because the perception is that this is the new market baseline for AF #15.

Like I said a few weeks ago, if the market accepts those 3 record sales as the new baseline all prices will rise.

My point is that those 3 record sales are NOT indicative of the normal market.

Not necessarily the new market baseline because it is not absolute.  There are a bunch of books that have set market baselines in the past, but each succeeding sale, the price sold for less than predicted or less than what it last sold for.  The record sale prices you pointed out are primarily uber high grades where there are less copies in the census than lower graded copies.  What I am seeing is an major uptick in price in practically every grade so far on high and low grades.  

Let's take a look for example at the current CC auction.  The CGC 7.5 right now has a bid of $77k, a couple months ago a 7.5 copy sold on CL for $87k.  I think it will surpass that mark.  The CGC 6.5 copy is already at $56k, with the last recorded sale I have on this grade was at $50k on Dec, 2016. I will leave the 4.0 copy out of this because of the white pages and I am still a firm believer that white pages will command a higher price especially if it hits specific criteria: no MC, deep colors, nice centering, etc.  this copy seems to hit most of the criteria if not all.  There is an offer of $25k for a 4.5 copy and in my opinion is a weaker 4.5 due primarily to the long subscription crease from top to bottom, I have a 4.5 copy and it looks much cleaner.  And finally a 1.5 copy with an offer of $8k! Yeah the copy with the huge chunk out, a very weak 1.5..  A 1.8 sold for $8400 just last month.  

Based on current prices, and most do look like its grade or lower, I see that these are the new prices for AF 15 and in my opinion (always a chance I am wrong) will continue as the trend. Yes at first I was a non-believer in the record sales from the last CC auction where the 4.5 sold for around $37k, etc. but now it's still happening to all copies in all grades setting record highs.  Do I think this is market healthy?  I dunno yet because I do not know the ceiling for this book.

[SC22]

Just now, VintageComics said:

If someone wants to find a high grade copy they're much easier to find than Hulk #1.

And I'd bet that if someone really wanted one they could find one. I know I could.

Yes Hulk 1 is rarer for sure but not many people who own high graded copies of either book want to sell.

[SC22]

1 minute ago, Dark Knight said:

Not necessarily the new market baseline because it is not absolute.  There are a bunch of books that have set market baselines in the past, but each succeeding sale, the price sold for less than predicted or less than what it last sold for.  The record sale prices you pointed out are primarily uber high grades where there are less copies in the census than lower graded copies.  What I am seeing is an major uptick in price in practically every grade so far on high and low grades.  

Let's take a look for example at the current CC auction.  The CGC 7.5 right now has a bid of $77k, a couple months ago a 7.5 copy sold on CL for $87k.  I think it will surpass that mark.  The CGC 6.5 copy is already at $56k, with the last recorded sale I have on this grade was at $50k on Dec, 2016. I will leave the 4.0 copy out of this because of the white pages and I am still a firm believer that white pages will command a higher price especially if it hits specific criteria: no MC, deep colors, nice centering, etc.  this copy seems to hit most of the criteria if not all.  There is an offer of $25k for a 4.5 copy and in my opinion is a weaker 4.5 due primarily to the long subscription crease from top to bottom, I have a 4.5 copy and it looks much cleaner.  And finally a 1.5 copy with an offer of $8k! Yeah the copy with the huge chunk out, a very weak 1.5..  A 1.8 sold for $8400 just last month.  

Based on current prices, and most do look like its grade or lower, I see that these are the new prices for AF 15 and in my opinion (always a chance I am wrong) will continue as the trend. Yes at first I was a non-believer in the record sales from the last CC auction where the 4.5 sold for around $37k, etc. but now it's still happening to all copies in all grades setting record highs.  Do I think this is market healthy?  I dunno yet because I do not know the ceiling for this book.

Exactly!!

[Captain Canuck]

Just now, SC22 said:

Exactly!!

Supergirl, Hulk... is that you?

[SC22]

2 minutes ago, Captain Canuck said:

Supergirl, Hulk... is that you?

Yes why? SC22 has become my all time favorite cover/book in the SA....hence the change.

Edited April 19, 2017 by SC22

[Iceman399]

PUMP Pump it up!

[VintageComics]

2 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

Not necessarily the new market baseline because it is not absolute.

It's a baseline in the sense that the rest of the market is now adjusting to those record CC prices.

2 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

The CGC 7.5 right now has a bid of $77k, a couple months ago a 7.5 copy sold on CL for $87k.

As I said earlier today, the 7.5 is a very nice looking copy. Don't think it will upgrade but under this new frenzy, and because it's a nice looking copy it will sell for a strong number.

3 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

The CGC 6.5 copy is already at $56k, with the last recorded sale I have on this grade was at $50k on Dec, 2016.

Again, as I said earlier the 6.5 has lots of stuff that looks fixable - back cover has pressable defects, dirt that can be remove AND the front cover is very clean looking.

This is the type of copy that sets a record.

[SC22]

Just now, Iceman399 said:

PUMP Pump it up!

Oh it's OK for everyone else to talk value but not me yeah sure give me a break!!

[VintageComics]

3 minutes ago, Captain Canuck said:

4 minutes ago, SC22 said:

Exactly!!

Supergirl, Hulk... is that you?

If I knew it was him I wouldn't have replied.