1st Wolverine art @ $140K with 22 days to go!! 0

[Domo Arigato]

Since both cost the same, if you could choose, which one would you take, Hulk 180 page or the Harrison Guitar?

I'd take the $657,000.

 

 

[Captain Canuck]

Since both cost the same, if you could choose, which one would you take, Hulk 180 page or the Harrison Guitar?

I'd take the $657,000.

 

 

One assumes they didn't need the $657K, but I agree.

[delekkerste]

The great beauty of this debate (disagreement, speculation, whatever...) is that if the price does not approach/breach the 400k that the peanut gallery projects, the legitimizers have been legitimized, while if it does, then the buyers are insufficiently_thoughtful_persons from the peanut gallery. Either way, the legitimizer is was and shall always be right!

 

$657k

Peanut Gallery Legitimizers(s) 0

 

 

errr... but the legitimizer(s) are proper, learned, and correct, and the peanut gallery are just ignorant insufficiently_thoughtful_persons.

 

I have no idea what you are trying to argue above, but I don't know who was saying that $400K was some kind of cap on this page (I know it wasn't me). In fact, I never even said that $1 million was a cap on this page - I just said it was a 50-1 shot to get there at best, and more likely 100-1, and that I like to play the odds.

Edited May 19, 2014 by delekkerste

[delekkerste]

Oh, and I spoke at length with the new owner of this page over the weekend and, no, I don't have Eminem or Hugh Jackman on speed dial. I'm sure he'll come public with an announcement soon enough, but, suffice to say, it was one of the usual suspects.

[slym2none]

I don't think anyone here would have bet money that Eminem or Hugh Jackman was going to win this... just that there was a more than 1:7,000,000,000 chance of that happening, or even 1:700,000,000.

 

 

 

-slym

[delekkerste]

I don't think anyone here would have bet money that Eminem or Hugh Jackman was going to win this... just that there was a more than 1:7,000,000,000 chance of that happening, or even 1:700,000,000.

 

There's a lot of room between 1:700,000,000 and the overinflated probability in some peoples' minds, Slym.

 

Of course no one would have bet any meaningful money straight up that they would win it, but I bet some would have taken a punt at 15-1, 25-1, 50-1, etc. when the true probabilities were even less than implied by those odds. And, just like the guy in the PG-13 movie everyone's really hoping makes it happen, I'm sure a lot of people really wanted some celebrity to pull through and prove me wrong, but instead those fantasies were cruelly dispatched yet again by the big bear with claws.

[tth2]

My final prediction for the page, made publicly over in the OA section, was $717K ($600K hammer price), so I only missed the actual outcome by 1 bid increment ($657K or $550K hammer price).

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

[delekkerste]

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

.

 

That's what I wanted you to think. You think it was a coincidence that I predicted (against consensus I might add) earlier in the week that the auction was going to be a barnburner?

[tth2]

My final prediction for the page, made publicly over in the OA section, was $717K ($600K hammer price), so I only missed the actual outcome by 1 bid increment ($657K or $550K hammer price).

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

.

 

That's what I wanted you to think. You think it was a coincidence that I predicted (against consensus I might add) earlier in the week that the auction was going to be a barnburner?

Can`t... stop... eyes... from... rolling...!

[Chip Cataldo]

I can't even imagine having that kind of money sitting around.

 

Peace,

 

Chip

[delekkerste]

Can`t... stop... eyes... from... rolling...!

 

Now you know how I've felt all these years. In any case, does it matter if you placed your winning bet just before post time or well in advance? As long as it wasn't after the fact, it all counts the same at the ticket window. Not that it even matters - the bottom line is that this page was always going to sell where the usual suspect BSDs bid it up to.

 

Anyhow, let's not pick nits. At the end of the day, the page, which virtually everyone agrees is better than the ASM 328 cover, could only manage to equal the latter's price and missed the million level by a wide margin (it would have had to sell for 52.2% higher to hit that exalted level). The "transitive property" argument failed yet again. And, it was bought by one of the two guys I thought would buy it, and not by a celebrity or other wealthy crossover buyer.

 

Yeah,

[delekkerste]

I can't even imagine having that kind of money sitting around.

 

Very few people in this hobby have that kind of money "sitting around". You would be surprised by the kind of creative financing arrangements that are employed even at the very highest levels of this hobby. Which is why there is a huge gulf between $657K and $1 million - incremental dollars at that level are much harder to come by than dollars getting to that level. Buying a page like this at that kind of price is not an easy decision for anyone in the hobby.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

My final prediction for the page, made publicly over in the OA section, was $717K ($600K hammer price), so I only missed the actual outcome by 1 bid increment ($657K or $550K hammer price).

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

 

And, as a matter of fact, here's his FIRST prediction:

 

Posted on 03/01/14 at 04:01 PM

But, I'm going to stick with my belief that this one will sell for at least $200K. Even if it somehow manages to miss that mark, I'm confident it will sell for closer to $200K than $100K.

 

Doing quck math....let's see, carry the one, add 37....

 

And we find that $657k is CLOSER to $1000k than it is $200k...with an over 100k difference (457k off vs 343k off, for those lacking the requisite math skills.)

 

So, we were both wrong...except you were more wrong than I was.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

.

 

That's what I wanted you to think. You think it was a coincidence that I predicted (against consensus I might add) earlier in the week that the auction was going to be a barnburner?

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Can`t... stop... eyes... from... rolling...!

 

Now you know how I've felt all these years. In any case, does it matter if you placed your winning bet just before post time or well in advance? As long as it wasn't after the fact, it all counts the same at the ticket window. Not that it even matters - the bottom line is that this page was always going to sell where the usual suspect BSDs bid it up to.

 

Anyhow, let's not pick nits. At the end of the day, the page, which virtually everyone agrees is better than the ASM 328 cover, could only manage to equal the latter's price and missed the million level by a wide margin (it would have had to sell for 52.2% higher to hit that exalted level). The "transitive property" argument failed yet again. And, it was bought by one of the two guys I thought would buy it, and not by a celebrity or other wealthy crossover buyer.

 

Yeah,

 

 

Just posting this as a reminder, in case it was missed earlier:

 

Posted on 03/01/14 at 04:01 PM

But, I'm going to stick with my belief that this one will sell for at least $200K. Even if it somehow manages to miss that mark, I'm confident it will sell for closer to $200K than $100K.

 

In fact, it sold for a whopping 228% more than your original prediction.

 

 

Oh, and in case anyone's wondering...your "final" prediction was made 20 minutes before the auction ended. That's like picking the winner of the Preakness 10 feet before the finish line (to steal a line from a friend.)

 

No, they won't take your bets 10 feet before the finish line.

 

Nice try, though!

[delekkerste]

My final prediction for the page, made publicly over in the OA section, was $717K ($600K hammer price), so I only missed the actual outcome by 1 bid increment ($657K or $550K hammer price).

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

 

And, as a matter of fact, here's his FIRST prediction:

 

Posted on 03/01/14 at 04:01 PM

But, I'm going to stick with my belief that this one will sell for at least $200K. Even if it somehow manages to miss that mark, I'm confident it will sell for closer to $200K than $100K.

 

Doing quck math....let's see, carry the one, add 37....

 

And we find that $657k is CLOSER to $1000k than it is $200k...with an over 100k difference (457k off vs 343k off, for those lacking the requisite math skills.)

 

So, we were both wrong...except you were more wrong than I was.

 

 

Way to take it out of context.

 

1. I said >$200K, not $200K. I was responding to a post which was pegging the value closer to $100K.

2. In that same post, I said that this page was going to shatter all known records for Kirby prices and was arguing that Copper/Bronze Age masterpieces were not going to play second fiddle to Silver Age pieces.

3. I went through all the threads and I never gave a definitive public prediction on this page. I had been telling people privately that high-$200Ks to mid-$400Ks was the probable range, BUT that I wasn't ruling out the possibility of a 5 or 6 handle.

4. That post you cribbed was from 2 1/2 months ago. It certainly did not reflect my position in recent weeks after incorporating more datapoints (not all of which were public) into my thinking.

 

Here is the full, unedited, in-context post from 2 1/2 months ago that you carved up and twisted:

 

That's the reason I asked why people are pulling 100s of thousands of dollars for this page as guesses out of thin air. Are we predicting the market or trying to create it here?? Let's be careful not to do the latter. What are pages from JIM 83, TOS 39, X-Men 1 worth?? That's the range we should be talking about. Key characters with large fanbases. Agreed some may argue Wolverine gets a premium, but I think that's debatable.

 

I am sure that almost every OA collector who started collecting in the '90s or earlier is cringing at the fact that a Herb Trimpe page from 1974 is about to blow all known records for Kirby art out of the water, just as they remain mortified that the top 5 or 6 biggest recorded sales for American OA include a McSpidey cover and two DKR pieces! I think the fact is, though, that enough time has passed for Bronze/Copper Age to have become the driving nostalgic force in the OA market, especially among the under-45 crowd.

 

This may be a controversial statement: while there are collectors, big collectors even, in their 30s and early 40s who do collect Silver Age and older art, I sincerely doubt that Silver Age gets them as passionate and pumped up as Bronze/Copper Age. For proof of that, just look at you and me. We both appreciate comics history and all the important artists, many of whom are represented in our respective collections. But, if I look at what really jazzes me up the most, I'd say it's the period from roughly 1973 to 1987 (I started collecting in 1983, but discovered much of the earlier material through back issues and reprints), while clearly the '80s hold a special position for you above all other decades. We and our peers want the Kirby, Ditko, Romita, Buscema, etc. examples as well, because we appreciate the history and those artists' contributions to everything that came later (not to mention some of the most iconic images, many of which happen to be among the hobby's biggest trophies, come from those artists). But, when I look at the big collectors who are sub-45/46 in age (with a couple of notable exceptions like Fishler), I strongly suspect that almost all of their respective nostalgic sweet spots and eras are, in their heart of hearts, either Bronze Age or Copper Age.

 

And, that's why I think this page will exceed, probably by a fair amount, pages from those Silver Age books you mentioned. Sure, many the older collectors/dealers will balk at paying that much for a Herb Trimpe Hulk page from the '70s. But I don't think some of the younger guns will have those qualms. Maybe talk of rivaling the DKR #3 splash and such was premature in light of allegations that the #181 pages might still be out there. But, I'm going to stick with my belief that this one will sell for at least $200K. Even if it somehow manages to miss that mark, I'm confident it will sell for closer to $200K than $100K.

[the blob]

well who is to say that someone bidding on behalf of a celebrity looking for "something cool" to stick in his game room didn't help push it past $500K and that one of the usual suspects was the final bidder?

 

anyway, nice chunk of change. $657K is getting into real money...or a 4 X 5 sketch by picasso on the back of a napkin...

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

My final prediction for the page, made publicly over in the OA section, was $717K ($600K hammer price), so I only missed the actual outcome by 1 bid increment ($657K or $550K hammer price).

You made this prediction on the day of the auction, after you saw the way the wind was blowing in the auction.

 

And, as a matter of fact, here's his FIRST prediction:

 

Posted on 03/01/14 at 04:01 PM

But, I'm going to stick with my belief that this one will sell for at least $200K. Even if it somehow manages to miss that mark, I'm confident it will sell for closer to $200K than $100K.

 

Doing quck math....let's see, carry the one, add 37....

 

And we find that $657k is CLOSER to $1000k than it is $200k...with an over 100k difference (457k off vs 343k off, for those lacking the requisite math skills.)

 

So, we were both wrong...except you were more wrong than I was.

 

 

Way to take it out of context.

 

1. I said >$200K, not $200K. I was responding to a post which was pegging the value closer to $100K.

 

 

You have GOT to be kidding me!

 

Because *I* said it would CROSS $1million, not sell for "way more" than $1million, and you had a problem with that.

 

You just made the exact same argument.

 

You arrogantly dismissed all of my arguments as naïve, uninformed rambling from someone who you characterized...very haughtily, I might add...as someone who knew nothing about what he was speaking.

 

"Carved up and twisted"?

 

You are hysterical. You've impressed a lot of folks around here, no doubt with your money and collection, but when it comes to making a rational discussion, you fall far, far short...what I don't understand (it's probably not wanting to tell truth to your money) is why more people don't see it.

 

Someone call in the backhoe...it's getting deep in here.

 

Just admit it. I can. I was wrong. See? You were wrong, too.

 

Can you admit it....?

 

 

[delekkerste]

 

You have GOT to be kidding me!

 

Because *I* said it would CROSS $1million, not sell for "way more" than $1million, and you had a problem with that.

 

You just made the exact same argument.

 

 

Here's what you said:

 

I have little doubt that it will cross $1,000,000. If the cover to Spidey #328 can sell for $600K+, this should have no problem.

 

That's a concrete prediction. On the other hand, my comment was in response to another comment, back on March 1 when the Hulk #180 page had only been know to exist for one week! I can assure you that I hadn't formed any concrete opinions on where the page would end up at that point!

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

You have GOT to be kidding me!

 

Because *I* said it would CROSS $1million, not sell for "way more" than $1million, and you had a problem with that.

 

You just made the exact same argument.

 

 

Here's what you said:

 

I have little doubt that it will cross $1,000,000. If the cover to Spidey #328 can sell for $600K+, this should have no problem.

 

That's a concrete prediction. On the other hand, my comment was in response to another comment, back on March 1 when the Hulk #180 page had only been know to exist for one week! I can assure you that I hadn't formed any concrete opinions on where the page would end up at that point!

 

Can you admit you were wrong?