My road to success (Moving Update 2) 8 8

[revat]

Details are a big part of this business.

 

If you cannot be bothered with them or don't have the time for them, therein lies the problem

 

This is not a good business for you. Sorry but that's the truth

 

 

I think we can all agree that if you WANT something bad enough, you don't need anything else, even if you don't have the right talent, knowledge, experience, education, work ethic, resources, geographic location, family, and/or related skill set. The only thing you need is the willingness to blindly throw money at the situation without doing math or research and the ability to ignore the well-meaning advice of literally every single person who is more successful than you at your desired activity.

 

I think in business school they taught us that Warren Buffet made all his money that way. Same with Wayne Gretzky or Sidney Crosby (Candians!). They came out of the womb, sat around for 20 years playing video games, watching hockey and thinking they'd be voice actors, but since they saw how much money other people made playing hockey and how much fun other hockey players were having, they decided to go to be NHL superstars instead. They didn't even need to take time to learn to skate forwards and backwards or stop, they just figured they'd learn from the best at the NHL level by trial and error. In fact, I think that's how most hockey legends get their start, they just start scoring NHL goals even though they can't skate with a stick.

 

You should be learning to skate, but instead you're getting blasted in the face by the Sedin twins (not as fun as it sounds).

 

And make no mistake, if you're buying $1,000 comic books, you're in the top elite level of comic people. I know it seems like there's tons of people who do that based on what you see here on the boards and auction sites, but the truth is that people who are WILLING and ABLE to buy $1,000 comics are actually quite rare. I would bet that the vast majority of people in the larger world comic community who make more than $100,000 per year at a stable job have not bought more than a $1K comic in their lifetime. It is a lot to spend on a hobby, even one where there is occasionally some money to be made. You're not ready for it.

 

Another thing, it sounds like you're getting 'easy comic to sell' confused with 'easy comic to SELL FOR LARGE PROFIT'. Yes 'hot' comics should be easier to sell, but they're also much less likely to be bought for a price where there's profit to be made. Do you actually see the distinction?

 

 

Would you rather buy? ten $1 comics you can sell for $10 each?

 

Or one $900 comic you can sell for $1,000?

 

Which one and why? Feel free to show your work.

 

Or take a business class. Or take multiple business classes. You said you took one already, did you master it? Why do people even take them anyways? I bet Darth Vader never took a business class and he was second in command of the whole Empire.

 

I'm not sure if this advice is for me or Gabe

 

 

 

I assume you're the same person.

[Semicentennial]

I agree. There is a lot of information in the other threads, both good information and some misinformation. It will serve the OP some good if he spent more time appreciating the hobby and reading up on it some more before trying to prove to himself that he can be successful in something. Unfortunately, his impatience will continue to hurt him.

[W16227]

 

 

ok, so you've done a full analysis of the costs involved with pressing, including shipping back and forth, grading, insurance, translation fees, any custom or border fees.

 

And OF course you've calculated some EDUCATED estimated probabilities of receiving a 8.5, 8.0, and 7.5.

 

And OF course you've calculated some CONSERVATIVE expected realized values per grade upon selling, after selling fees, translation, shipping, insurance, customs duties, and taxes.

 

 

 

And with this information, you've OBVIOUSLY used the probabilities and expected values to calculated a reasonable conservative expected value of return WITH PRESSING, and one WITHOUT PRESSING. And obviously, you've determined that its more worth it through all this math that PRESSING and RESUB is worth it.

 

 

Not that you owe an explanation to anyone, but IF you could do this calculation and show your work and estimates and assumptions, I think most of us would be much more supportive. And if you don't know what I'm talking about or can't do the math, there is literally ZERO chance YOU will ever be successful in buying and selling comics, and certainly not with this comic. (Which is not to say every successful dealer can do this kind of math, but those dealers are at least smart enough to buy with such obviously large margins that the math is somewhat moot.)

 

to add -- some dealers may not go through this level of math - but successful ones - can use their own experience to evaluate deals....

 

this is what revat is describing -

 

total investment is what you paid - plus all pressing fees

 

Left side - is the estimate as to what will happen when regraded - I think I am being generous since 80% of the pressers you spoke with do not want to touch the book for fear of damage.

 

sales price is based on GPA - the good thing about this book is that there are enough data points that I can snag 30 day average and year high/low and have a reasonable expectation of accuracy. The percentages in this area are the calculation values - 90% of the time the book will sell for average. 5% high. 5% low.

 

 

The weighted profit or loss - takes into account the % you will see this book at that grade after CPR. The final number - is a sum of these and represents the average profit or loss from this transaction.

 

 

 

 

 

So - not taking into account fees (ebay, paypal, HA - whatever) - OR OUTBOUND SHIPPING - trying to CPR this book will cost you an extra $100.

 

Take the project sale price of 8 - remove the extra 110 for CPR --- and you are $100 better trying to sell raw.

 

 

not including seller fees

not including shipping of the sale

 

 

 

 

Awesome chart but how did you get the occurrence percentage and how much I should get value wise? I don't get that complex with my decisions in buying.

 

 

Bare estimate on what the CPR will yield. Based on my experience with identifying pressable books and seeing the outcome first hand. This is a skill that has to be developed over time and HUNDREDS of books ( or more). One that is constantly tested - and refined ( and one that MANY other boardies are better than me at)........

 

 

That staple tear - is a huge risk so it is very doubtful that you get any bump - so the low "improvement" numbers. I believe I was kind with the drop numbers - as 4/5 pressers did not want to touch the book for fear of the tear.

 

 

Seriously - keep the book - hand onto it for a year. Think of it as a keeper not any form of investment. Hopefully the book will continue to increase in value and you can sell in 12 months for a slight loss or gain.

 

 

 

[revat]

 

 

ok, so you've done a full analysis of the costs involved with pressing, including shipping back and forth, grading, insurance, translation fees, any custom or border fees.

 

And OF course you've calculated some EDUCATED estimated probabilities of receiving a 8.5, 8.0, and 7.5.

 

And OF course you've calculated some CONSERVATIVE expected realized values per grade upon selling, after selling fees, translation, shipping, insurance, customs duties, and taxes.

 

 

 

And with this information, you've OBVIOUSLY used the probabilities and expected values to calculated a reasonable conservative expected value of return WITH PRESSING, and one WITHOUT PRESSING. And obviously, you've determined that its more worth it through all this math that PRESSING and RESUB is worth it.

 

 

Not that you owe an explanation to anyone, but IF you could do this calculation and show your work and estimates and assumptions, I think most of us would be much more supportive. And if you don't know what I'm talking about or can't do the math, there is literally ZERO chance YOU will ever be successful in buying and selling comics, and certainly not with this comic. (Which is not to say every successful dealer can do this kind of math, but those dealers are at least smart enough to buy with such obviously large margins that the math is somewhat moot.)

 

to add -- some dealers may not go through this level of math - but successful ones - can use their own experience to evaluate deals....

 

this is what revat is describing -

 

total investment is what you paid - plus all pressing fees

 

Left side - is the estimate as to what will happen when regraded - I think I am being generous since 80% of the pressers you spoke with do not want to touch the book for fear of damage.

 

sales price is based on GPA - the good thing about this book is that there are enough data points that I can snag 30 day average and year high/low and have a reasonable expectation of accuracy. The percentages in this area are the calculation values - 90% of the time the book will sell for average. 5% high. 5% low.

 

 

The weighted profit or loss - takes into account the % you will see this book at that grade after CPR. The final number - is a sum of these and represents the average profit or loss from this transaction.

 

 

 

 

 

So - not taking into account fees (ebay, paypal, HA - whatever) - OR OUTBOUND SHIPPING - trying to CPR this book will cost you an extra $100.

 

Take the project sale price of 8 - remove the extra 110 for CPR --- and you are $100 better trying to sell raw.

 

 

not including seller fees

not including shipping of the sale

 

 

 

 

Awesome chart but how did you get the occurrence percentage and how much I should get value wise? I don't get that complex with my decisions in buying.

 

 

Bare estimate on what the CPR will yield. Based on my experience with identifying pressable books and seeing the outcome first hand. This is a skill that has to be developed over time and HUNDREDS of books ( or more). One that is constantly tested - and refined ( and one that MANY other boardies are better than me at)........

 

 

That staple tear - is a huge risk so it is very doubtful that you get any bump - so the low "improvement" numbers. I believe I was kind with the drop numbers - as 4/5 pressers did not want to touch the book for fear of the tear.

 

 

Seriously - keep the book - hand onto it for a year. Think of it as a keeper not any form of investment. Hopefully the book will continue to increase in value and you can sell in 12 months for a slight loss or gain.

 

 

 

the issue is barely what the 'odds' are or aren't, or even whether or not a profit or loss is still possible. The issue that you are/were willing to the pressing/regrade WITHOUT KNOWING THE ODDS OR DOING THE ANALYSIS, and DO NOT HAVE THE RELEVANT SKILLS TO DO THE MATH OR JUDGE THE PRESSABILITY of the comic.

Edited September 8, 2016 by Revat

[Jking3437]

131 new post.

 

 

What the heck did I miss

[jsilverjanet]

Lot of bad advice by so call experts

 

[porcupine48]

boobs

[chrisco37]

I hope that ASM129 comes back 9.0 then what will everyone say

 

That would be a good thing, but what if it comes back a 7.5? You know as well as anyone else who flips that you need to have that margin for error built into your business model.

 

What is the margin of error percentage?

 

 

The margin of error is lets say you're buying a book for $100 and you submit it thinking it has a good shot at a 9.8 which will then be worth $300. Look up what that book goes for in 9.6 or potentially 9.4. Maybe at 9.6 you break even and at 9.4 it will be a small loss. If you've subbed enough books you start to get a general idea of what CGC is looking for in certain grades, so you have to develop your grading eye so you have some sort of confidence that a book will come back in the grade range you believe it to be.

 

There's nothing wrong with taking a gamble now and then as long as you can afford to do so, but you should always try to mitigate your losses, especially now as you're trying to build up your cash.

 

I like the way you laid it out and I do think that way sometimes but not often.

 

You need to think that way all the time right now. Grind it out, build your cash up and eventually you will be able to take risks on bigger books. Always think about building your cash up, you will take some losses, that happens to everyone, but you want to minimize them as much as possible.

 

To be honest I don't know how to begin with finding 100 dollar comics I remember the comics that I do because they are key issues and in mist cases easier to flip.

 

On this forum alone there are threads discussing "hot" books in both the Copper and Bronze sections. Take some of that information and start looking on eBay, other web retailers or scour the local LCS's. Most of the guys I personally know have to hustle a little to find books, they're not just going to drop out of the sky.

 

To be successful at this you're going to have to work at it. I think there are a lot of people here who are willing to share information and knowledge, but no one wants to hold your hand. Do your research, do your work, build slowly within your means.

 

I checked and I was overwhelmed by how much info there was do you how any tips?

 

If you can't/won't/don't read that stuff and try and decipher the info on these boards, then either:

 

-You're lazy and you really don't want it bad enough

 

or

 

Well, that's it.

 

Look...everyone is looking for that "one big score". Last year, I got really lucky and had it (and lucky for me, I had the funds to make it happen at the time). A friend and I went in on a collection together and did really, really well. I know guys that have been doing this longer than me and are still waiting for it. It may never happen.

 

You cannot count on it. In fact, you may have already hit your "big score" with the generous finders fee on the JLA book.

 

I'm not a big time seller, but I've made some money on books over the years (but I've spent alot more). Most of my "big" profits on particular books have been books that I bought years ago that heated up well after the purchase. You're going to have a near impossible task buying "key" books at/over FMV and trying to flip them quickly.

 

But, you keep doing what you're doing. Only $1K in the hole after a few years. That should tell you something.

 

 

[chrisco37]

131 new post.

 

 

What the heck did I miss

 

Have you read the first 131 posts in this thread? You "missed" more of that.

[Logan510]

Details are a big part of this business.

 

If you cannot be bothered with them or don't have the time for them, therein lies the problem

 

This is not a good business for you. Sorry but that's the truth

 

I think we can all agree that if you WANT something bad enough, you don't need anything else, even if you don't have the right talent, knowledge, experience, education, work ethic, resources, geographic location, family, and/or related skill set. The only thing you need is the willingness to blindly throw money at the situation without doing math or research and the ability to ignore the well-meaning advice of literally every single person who is more successful than you at your desired activity.

 

I think in business school they taught us that Warren Buffet made all his money that way. Same with Wayne Gretzky or Sidney Crosby (Candians!). They came out of the womb, sat around for 20 years playing video games, watching hockey and thinking they'd be voice actors, but since they saw how much money other people made playing hockey and how much fun other hockey players were having, they decided to go to be NHL superstars instead. They didn't even need to take time to learn to skate forwards and backwards or stop, they just figured they'd learn from the best at the NHL level by trial and error. In fact, I think that's how most hockey legends get their start, they just start scoring NHL goals even though they can't skate with a stick.

 

You should be learning to skate, but instead you're getting blasted in the face by the Sedin twins (not as fun as it sounds).

 

And make no mistake, if you're buying $1,000 comic books, you're in the top elite level of comic people. I know it seems like there's tons of people who do that based on what you see here on the boards and auction sites, but the truth is that people who are WILLING and ABLE to buy $1,000 comics are actually quite rare. I would bet that the vast majority of people in the larger world comic community who make more than $100,000 per year at a stable job have not bought more than a $1K comic in their lifetime. It is a lot to spend on a hobby, even one where there is occasionally some money to be made. You're not ready for it.

 

Another thing, it sounds like you're getting 'easy comic to sell' confused with 'easy comic to SELL FOR LARGE PROFIT'. Yes 'hot' comics should be easier to sell, but they're also much less likely to be bought for a price where there's profit to be made. Do you actually see the distinction?

 

 

Would you rather buy? ten $1 comics you can sell for $10 each?

 

Or one $900 comic you can sell for $1,000?

 

Which one and why? Feel free to show your work.

 

Or take a business class. Or take multiple business classes. You said you took one already, did you master it? Why do people even take them anyways? I bet Darth Vader never took a business class and he was second in command of the whole Empire.

 

That's why he lost to a barely trained Luke Skywalker...duh.

[Logan510]

Details are a big part of this business.

 

If you cannot be bothered with them or don't have the time for them, therein lies the problem

 

This is not a good business for you. Sorry but that's the truth

 

 

I think we can all agree that if you WANT something bad enough, you don't need anything else, even if you don't have the right talent, knowledge, experience, education, work ethic, resources, geographic location, family, and/or related skill set. The only thing you need is the willingness to blindly throw money at the situation without doing math or research and the ability to ignore the well-meaning advice of literally every single person who is more successful than you at your desired activity.

 

I think in business school they taught us that Warren Buffet made all his money that way. Same with Wayne Gretzky or Sidney Crosby (Candians!). They came out of the womb, sat around for 20 years playing video games, watching hockey and thinking they'd be voice actors, but since they saw how much money other people made playing hockey and how much fun other hockey players were having, they decided to go to be NHL superstars instead. They didn't even need to take time to learn to skate forwards and backwards or stop, they just figured they'd learn from the best at the NHL level by trial and error. In fact, I think that's how most hockey legends get their start, they just start scoring NHL goals even though they can't skate with a stick.

 

You should be learning to skate, but instead you're getting blasted in the face by the Sedin twins (not as fun as it sounds).

 

And make no mistake, if you're buying $1,000 comic books, you're in the top elite level of comic people. I know it seems like there's tons of people who do that based on what you see here on the boards and auction sites, but the truth is that people who are WILLING and ABLE to buy $1,000 comics are actually quite rare. I would bet that the vast majority of people in the larger world comic community who make more than $100,000 per year at a stable job have not bought more than a $1K comic in their lifetime. It is a lot to spend on a hobby, even one where there is occasionally some money to be made. You're not ready for it.

 

Another thing, it sounds like you're getting 'easy comic to sell' confused with 'easy comic to SELL FOR LARGE PROFIT'. Yes 'hot' comics should be easier to sell, but they're also much less likely to be bought for a price where there's profit to be made. Do you actually see the distinction?

 

 

Would you rather buy? ten $1 comics you can sell for $10 each?

 

Or one $900 comic you can sell for $1,000?

 

Which one and why? Feel free to show your work.

 

Or take a business class. Or take multiple business classes. You said you took one already, did you master it? Why do people even take them anyways? I bet Darth Vader never took a business class and he was second in command of the whole Empire.

 

I'm not sure if this advice is for me or Gabe

 

 

 

I already gave you the best advice you're ever going to get

[Logan510]

Lot of bad advice by so call experts

 

 

pancake boy

[KPR Comics]

Lot of bad advice by so call experts

 

Totally disagree with this

[Logan510]

Lot of bad advice by so call experts

 

Totally disagree with this

 

Well, if the bad advice is to continue flipping he's probably right, because Gabe should stop. He's not going to stop, but he should.

 

 

[Red84]

Lot of bad advice by so call experts

 

Totally disagree with this

 

He was being facetious.

[KPR Comics]

He's a tool.

 

Jk

[Logan510]

He's a tool.

 

Jk

 

Biggest in the shed

[KPR Comics]

She's kinda hot, too

[jsilverjanet]

Folks let's stay focused on the most important thing going on in this thread

 

Me!

 

 

[jsilverjanet]

I'd go work in a comic shop or work for a dealer at a convention to learn about the biz