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Original Comic Art vs. Comic Books - Wall Street Analysis

Started by DESTRO-migration,

209 posts in this topic

DESTRO-migration

DESTRO-migration

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Based purely on the #'s does it not appear that Original Comic art is out-pacing the growth in comic books ? All one need do is look at this past Heritage auction and it becomes immediately clear that the trend on art surpasses comic books. Perhaps this is purely a momentary momentum phenomena but comic books are looking more and more like a 'mature market'. How many here have thought about liquidating their books and moving to original art ? Is it just me or did the ASM #1 - 9.4 sell a couple of months ago for over 100K ,...and now it gets slightly above 50K ????? ,....I just see a slow down,......no flame war intended,...(I of course respect comic books) but tell me why Im wrong ?

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Illiterati-migration

Illiterati-migration

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Based purely on the #'s does it not appear that Original Comic art is out-pacing the growth in comic books ? All one need do is look at this past Heritage auction and it becomes immediately clear that the trend on art surpasses comic books. Perhaps this is purely a momentary momentum phenomena but comic books are looking more and more like a 'mature market'. How many here have thought about liquidating their books and moving to original art ? Is it just me or did the ASM #1 - 9.4 sell a couple of months ago for over 100K ,...and now it gets slightly above 50K ????? ,....I just see a slow down,......no flame war intended,...(I of course respect comic books) but tell me why Im wrong ?

 

Yes. Based on that ONE AUCTION it is clear that art is outpacing comic books. Sell all your books while you can.

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

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Is it just me or did the ASM #1 - 9.4 sell a couple of months ago for over 100K ,...and now it gets slightly above 50K ?????

 

I think it's just you. Where was it you thought you saw a Spidey 1 CGC 9.4 go for over $100K? Perhaps you're mixing up the CGC 9.6 copy that just sold a few months ago for over $100K.

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DESTRO-migration

DESTRO-migration

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perhaps you are right,..maybe it was a 9.6,..but I coulda sworn is saw an auction (where Mike Grissmer was either the buyer or seller) for a 9.4 on EBAY that got over 100K.

 

But I do remember a Jay Parino auction that couldnt get a 110 K price.

 

IMHO the problem with comic books is that there is TREMENDOUS market risk that what is the best copy now,..will not necessarily be the best copy in the future.

 

Imagine looking at a census and seeing you have the best copy,..only to realize that 10 years later not only do you not have the best copy,...but there are 15 copies better than yours. That just seems like alotta risk to bear....wheras with original comic art,..you know for fact,...its the only existing image,..touched by the artists hand.

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drbanner

drbanner

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How much are all those Kirby pages that came to the market about 5(?) years ago flipping for? I was at a convention today talking to someone about collecting OA, and he lamented that "...he missed the boat by about 5-10 years..." I'm just a caveman comic book collector, but it seems to me that OA is going for a pretty penny today vs. several years ago, so it too might be a mature market.

 

Do modern pages typically sell/flip for more after a couple sales 2-3-4 years after the artist sells the page initially?

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shrunkenhead

shrunkenhead

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I couldn't tell a reprinted sheet of art from an original. Is there any counterfeiting yet ?

--------------------------

 

No doubt. Methinks finding out in a couple of years that you're holding onto a fake piece of art is a lot worse than finding out that you no longer own the highest graded copy. makepoint.gif

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DESTRO-migration

DESTRO-migration

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http://www.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=815&Lot_No=3390&src=pr

 

http://www.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=815&Lot_No=3384&src=pr

 

http://www.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=815&Lot_No=3391&src=pr

 

http://www.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=815&Lot_No=3386&src=pr

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nearmint

nearmint

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Keep in mind, "highest graded copies" are not the only market. I'm perfectly happy if 15 people have a higher graded copy than I do.

 

If I were smart, I'd diversify and buy both comics and OA, but try as I might, I just can't get all that excited about OA.

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shrunkenhead

shrunkenhead

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Destro, try not to take offense, because I'm not just trying to be a smart guy here but instead want to point to a serious question.

 

That said, why so insistent on convincing us comic-buffs about the future of the OA market? Call it my cynical nature, but your posts make me suspicious. If you're a "true believer," as you say, why wouldn't you try to make your purchases under the radar and reap the eventual benefits? Why the trumpeting? Doesn't that point to you being as unsure about the future of the OA market as the rest of us?

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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many here have thought about liquidating their books and moving to original art ?

 

Not too many people are going to liquidate their comic collections and move to original art. I know CGCFan has done it, but we're talking about a very small number of people. Frankly, the economics just don't make sense for 99% of collectors out there. For example, a Dave Cockrum GS X-Men #1 panel page went for $17,250 (including the juice) in the latest Heritage auction. You would have to sell more than six CGC 9.6 copies of GS #1 (assuming a $2,800 price) just to buy that one page. Most people with average size comic collections could liquidate everything they own and still not be able to afford anything they really like. I prefer original art over comics, but I'd much rather own a really nice comic collection with a lot of cool books than trade it all away for a few panel pages at today's ridiculous prices.

 

With prices where they are now, the number of people migrating from comics to original comic art will be a trickle, not a flood. Most "blue chip" comic art (and I use that term loosely, since prices are so inflated that I wouldn't dare call original art an investment) is going to set you back at least a couple of thousand dollars, and can easily escalate to 3, 5, 10, 15 or more times as much, as your Heritage auction examples show. The vast majority of people out there will only be able to afford very recent material which in most cases I doubt will hold its value (not that the blue chip stuff necessarily will either, IMO).

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DESTRO-migration

DESTRO-migration

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Markets are un-predictable. Anyone who says he 'knows' the market is clearly a hypster-pumper. I do not claim to know the market -- and for all I know,..original comic art could become worthless. That said, I believe the fundamental structure of the OA market makes it much more attractive to growth trends than comic books. To cite one under-pinning, for example,...the OA market is tiny compared with the comic book collecting market. To cite another, markets dont tend to fair well for items which have many substitutes but reward unique one of a kind items with higher prices.

 

As to why I dont buy stuff "under the radar" -- I dont believe I have that much Power over the market (anyone who trades stocks and goes on message boards would be re-miss if they thought they had any real influence over the market) and I am merely stating something I believe based on my analysis of the trend. Additionally, I am [#@$%!!!] poor right now and dont plan on buying much more unless I were to make some fast $$$$. ; )

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shrunkenhead

shrunkenhead

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Good point. I'd rather have a $17,000 collecton of nice book than one or two pieces of OA. I love OA but I can own a lot of nice comics with that kind of cake.

 

Which would make your collection easier to sell , too, should you ever want to. I naively used to think that "the bigger, more amazing, and more expensive the item, the better the resale." Duh! I've sinced learned that it's a heckuva lot easier to sell a $100 book than a $1000 book, even if the 1k book is a steal and the c-note book is jacked to the stratosphere.

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COI

COI

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But I do remember a Jay Parino auction that couldnt get a 110 K price.

 

That was for an FF #1 in 9.4.

 

If you want to have a serious market discussion, it usually helps to have a few facts. I track ASM sales, and there has never been a public sale of a 9.4 that has come anywhere close to 100K.

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fantastic_four

fantastic_four

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But I do remember a Jay Parino auction that couldnt get a 110 K price.

 

Parrino supposedly sold a CGC 9.6 copy for $110K in December 2004 on ebay. I just checked, and the buyer didn't leave feedback for Parrino, nor did Parrino leave feedback for the buyer. I give it a less-than-even chance the buyer ever paid for the book.

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