MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[SquareChaos]

2 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

No, the first page is not the current list. It's about 4 pages back or so.

Let me spell it out for you, ASM #119 sells for what it does because it's hard to find in high grade and there are plenty of ASM collectors out there, demand > supply. In the same vain, the variants sell for the same reasons.

Sure, same old tired 'it's rare so it's valuable' argument. 

Good luck finding someone in 45 years nostalgic for a cover with Wolverine dressed up as Deadpool wearing gold chains  (Does that one have gold chains? I can't remember - guess it isn't too memorable)

Edited April 18, 2017 by SquareChaos
Clarity

[ygogolak]

2 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Sure, same old tired 'it's rare so it's valuable' argument. 

Good luck finding someone in 45 years nostalgic for a cover with Wolverine dressed up as Deadpool wearing gold chains 

Um, the people who were alive when Bronze age books were released are not going to be alive / actively collecting in 45 years. You're assuming a migration of collectors who are spending money on variants moving towards older books. Which could very well happen but is by no means guaranteed.

There will however be people who were alive when all of these Modern variants were released. What you don't seem to be grasping is the nostalgic connection to these items.

Oh, I remember when I bought that ASM from the newsstand growing up....etc....

Edited April 18, 2017 by ygogolak

[kevhtx]

Whats the alternatives? If some think that these shouldn't be on the top list of valuable, what books SHOULD be on the list? It looks like a diverse list to me. When you get to the level of this type of investment, usually its people who have the money to invest in many types of books. So, they are investing in probably more than just variant/cover books.

[SquareChaos]

Just now, ygogolak said:

Um, the people who were alive when Bronze age books were released are not going to be alive / actively collecting in 45 years. There will however be people who were alive when all of these Modern variants were released. What you don't seem to be grasping is the nostalgic connection to these items.

Oh, I remember when I bought that ASM from the newsstand growing up....etc....

You're the one making the comparisons, not me. I wouldn't pay $$$$ for either book in 9.8, a 9.6 BA is fine by me and that can be had for relatively cheap.

Both extremes are equally foolish in my eyes - people that pay thousands and thousands of dollars for nothing more than a cover in a slab, and people that pay nosebleed premiums for a 9.8 when half of them can't tell the difference between it and a 9.6.

[ygogolak]

Just now, SquareChaos said:

You're the one making the comparisons, not me. I wouldn't pay $$$$ for either book in 9.8, a 9.6 BA is fine by me and that can be had for relatively cheap.

Both extremes are equally foolish in my eyes - people that pay thousands and thousands of dollars for nothing more than a cover in a slab, and people that pay nosebleed premiums for a 9.8 when half of them can't tell the difference between it and a 9.6.

Fair enough, you don't like anything, haha.

[kevhtx]

6 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Sure, same old tired 'it's rare so it's valuable' argument. 

Good luck finding someone in 45 years nostalgic for a cover with Wolverine dressed up as Deadpool wearing gold chains  (Does that one have gold chains? I can't remember - guess it isn't too memorable)

Whether you like it or not, even the older books, the rare/valuable argument still applies. Yes, the market may be somewhat larger for some books, but scarcity is what drives the market for these books. In 45 years, books that are rare will still be in demand. If Wolverine and deadpool are still popular characters, those Campbell covers will still be in demand imo.

[IntoAnother]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

I was also wondering specifically what he meant. I know he has been after a few of the books on this list. I mean, he can be a completionist and be unhappy of the state of the game, but I didn't fully understand what he meant either.

I wasn't aware he's been after a few on the list. What he's trying to say makes even less sense to me now. 

[SquareChaos]

Just now, ygogolak said:

Fair enough, you don't like anything, haha.

I like lots of things actually. If I were wealthy, I might buy some of these books without blinking because one man's $20 is another man's $2000. I don't begrudge anyone that buys anything that they enjoy - my arguments typically center around justifications. My knowledge of this area of the market isn't near as deep as some of you, but I know enough to know there are just not many people active and in the hunt for these high priced modern books, and that in and of itself makes the market precarious. That is basic ECON. The way these books are spoken of at times, you'd think they were sure thing blue chips that people would be foolish not to invest in - is that really the case? I don't think so, and I think people should read dissenting views.

[Jaydogrules]

FWIW here is the most recent version of the list (scroll down):

2017, Q2 Update coming soon....

-J.

 

Edited April 18, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[SquareChaos]

4 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

Whether you like it or not, even the older books, the rare/valuable argument still applies. Yes, the market may be somewhat larger for some books, but scarcity is what drives the market for these books. In 45 years, books that are rare will still be in demand. If Wolverine and deadpool are still popular characters, those Campbell covers will still be in demand imo.

Rarity is a single component in a more complicated function, I would never deny that. But rarity alone does not make something collectible or desirable. There are books out there with beautiful covers and just a few printings that no one cares about 

Most suggest you need a nostalgic component. I'm not entirely sure on that, I think it can happen due to significance as well, but I won't suggest I completely understand it. And I've said this before... but I'll say it again here - I could be very wrong, this could be the new norm for comic collecting. But if that is the case, the collector base will need to change drastically, most collectors I know just are not interested in these type of books.

[kevhtx]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

Rarity is a single component in a more complicated function, I would never deny that. But rarity alone does not make something collectible or desirable. There are books out there with beautiful covers and just a few printings that no one cares about 

But this is the same argument with art. Lots of paintings out there. Some may or may not have caught people's eye and became popular/valuable. Some sit around for a long time and then become valuable. 

There will always be rich people who have money to buy pretty, scarce things. Value draws attention to these books whether they are variants or keys anyway.

[ygogolak]

One formula for value: demand > supply

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

One formula for value: demand > supply

That is valid.

And it is great to keep it that high level if you don't want to really understand what may be going on - personally if I put thousands in to something with the idea of getting it (or more) back at a later date, I want to attempt to understand the market and see if it makes sense to me. As an example, look at the diamond market.

[SquareChaos]

3 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

But this is the same argument with art. Lots of paintings out there. Some may or may not have caught people's eye and became popular/valuable. Some sit around for a long time and then become valuable. 

There will always be rich people who have money to buy pretty, scarce things. Value draws attention to these books whether they are variants or keys anyway.

I think you enter into a whole new realm when you're talking about 1/1 - you can see ridiculous bidding battles, a lot of it just for bragging rights. From the outside looking in, I wouldn't try to justify that type of behavior either, but I'm on much less firm ground there... I don't know anything about the fine art market and I'd hazard to guess most of us here in this thread don't either.

[kevhtx]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

I think you enter into a whole new realm when you're talking about 1/1 - you can see ridiculous bidding battles, a lot of it just for bragging rights. From the outside looking in, I wouldn't try to justify that type of behavior either, but I'm on much less firm ground there... I don't know anything about the fine art market and I'd hazard to guess most of us here in this thread don't either.

I don't think you have to get into "ridiculous bidding battles" to buy art or have an understanding of the art market. It could simply be buying a $1000 painting that you like from a rising artist. The markets are different but they do have their similarities. Cover artists are artists and people buying their books from a low print run is like buying a numbered print of a painting from an painter. Granted buying OA from them is more comparable to the art world, but similar concepts apply.

Art brings out emotion in people and cover art is no different. Is Deadpool wearing gold chains flashing a gang sign art? Well, not to me, but Im sure it is to some people and it caught some fire. I HATE Jackson Pollack paintings, but there are people who like them (even though he was a hack).

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, kevhtx said:

I don't think you have to get into "ridiculous bidding battles" to buy art or have an understanding of the art market. It could simply be buying a $1000 painting that you like from a rising artist. The markets are different but they do have their similarities. Cover artists are artists and people buying their books from a low print run is like buying a numbered print of a painting from an painter. Granted buying OA from them is more comparable to the art world, but similar concepts apply.

Art brings out emotion in people and cover art is no different. Is Deadpool wearing gold chains flashing a gang sign art? Well, not to me, but Im sure it is to some people and it caught some fire. I HATE Jackson Pollack paintings, but there are people who like them (even though he was a hack).

No, it doesn't have to be ridiculous bidding battles, but I thought you were talking about extremes similar to the extremes of Modern comic book collecting present in this thread.

And I do agree that OA is the far better comparison, because like I said, when you enter into the realm of 1 of 1 weird things can begin to happen. And again, there is no doubting people like these covers, and it is without doubt very subjective. As you mention Jackson Pollack (I'm not a fan either), I can say I don't understand the love for JSC - to me, his women are usually curvier versions of Rob Liefeld females, they're weirdly stretched looking, and typically seem relatively emotionless... they often wear the same half smile. But then, other people love his work, they chase it down, and I think such followings are actually healthy for the hobby (though I wish we had less artists focused so much on being cover artists).

Like I said earlier... for me it is all about attempting to make clear that these 'most valuable modern variants' appear to have a higher element of risk to them than most other books you could spend a comparable amount of money on - I'm talking a lower grade SA blue chip for instance. I have nothing against the books themselves, I'd be happy to own several if I had them. If people are certain they want to spend $5000 on a Spider-man book that is just a few years old then they are going to do it, but I know people do so for a variety of reasons, and if they're thinking "investment" I just think they should hear a little bit more of a cautionary tale than is usually present in this thread, or even the entire Modern forum. Of course, they may be going for 'high risk / high reward' and that is certainly a tactic that has worked for people in the past.

[kevhtx]

If the concept is that someone comes to me and says they have $3k to invest, and they want either Siege #3 or IH 181, Ill steer them to the latter every day of the week. Easily. But, I would also tell them my reasoning and that in the end, it is their money and they ultimately should do what they want. Some will buy Siege 3. To each their own. I do have 3 books from the list though, so I jump around in my collecting.

[Lethal_Collector]

6 hours ago, kevhtx said:

If the concept is that someone comes to me and says they have $3k to invest, and they want either Siege #3 or IH 181, Ill steer them to the latter every day of the week. Easily. But, I would also tell them my reasoning and that in the end, it is their money and they ultimately should do what they want. Some will buy Siege 3. To each their own. I do have 3 books from the list though, so I jump around in my collecting.

Sound logic, I can say I've said the same thing to my friends in the past.

Which 3 do you have?

 

Jerome

[kevhtx]

26 minutes ago, Lethal_Collector said:

Sound logic, I can say I've said the same thing to my friends in the past.

Which 3 do you have?

 

Jerome

Batman 608 rrp

ASM 688

X-23 1 Dell'otto 

[World Devourer]

8 hours ago, ygogolak said:

No, the first page is not the current list. It's about 4 pages back or so.

Let me spell it out for you, ASM #119 sells for what it does because it's hard to find in high grade and there are plenty of ASM collectors out there, demand > supply. In the same vain, the variants sell for the same reasons.

"Let me spell it out for you?"  y, with respect, I don't think there's a need to be condescending. Square is a very agreeable and knowledgable poster.

I also take his point. I don't see the correlation between ASM #119 and the variants being discussed (although on a side note there IS technically a variant version that has a double cover but that is really a printing error. 

You say the issue is hard to find in high grade (by the by, the spelling is "vein")  and yet there are 2 9.8's currently listed for sale, and 54 graded at this level in total.  I've yet to see this happen with some of these variants. I'm sure Jay will agree there won't be 2 ASM #667's in 9.8 for sale simultaneously, much less a total of 54 in 9.8.

The variants are a different beast entirely. Like the Chromium Age, publishers are offering alternate versions of titles, but unlike said period, they are much, much scarcer (I think Jay's head would explode if someone produced an ASM #667 in 9.8 W with a metallic embossed hero on the Dell 'Otto cover).