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Modern Speculation

Started by 1ForChrist,

141 posts in this topic

Lazyboy

Lazyboy

Posted
Posted
Almost everything I've read from Black Mask is either bad, or struggles for mediocrity.

 

There's a large difference in quality (in general) between some of the Image books and those.

 

 

Disclaimer: I haven't read every Black Mask book.

 

I loved the 1st issue of 4 Kids Walk into a Bank but it took so long for issue #2 to come out, I really lost interest. I had it preordered but I don't think I read it. These small companies should plan a little better for consistency in release dates. They are great are grabbing a person's attention but have a difficult time keeping it.

These indies have copied the #1 variant copy craze that the other big 2 keep doing. Until people wake up and stop buying 25 plus variants of #1's why be concerned about keeping time schedules. Sales drop off no biggie there is another book we can put out that'll be a #1. Rinse repeat that is the trend right now.

Good post. I was checking the latest top 100 sales, and it seems 50 percent of the top 100 comic books are like a number one issue? It seems like the comic book companies reboot and publish a pile of new number ones every single month. Eventually people are going to figure out most number ones are not going to double in value.

That`s one good thing about The Walking Dead comic book as there is continuity where they don`t reboot it every few months with a shiny new number one with 10 variants.

 

Comic book companies publish more of what people are buying. Since the #1s are at the top of the chart, it only makes sense for them to publish more. Variants, female versions of male characters, etc. All trends that the companies will exploit to make a dollar. (I've said this before, I don't blame the companies for publishing the ever increasingly harder to get variants. All they have to do is look and see what people are willing to pay for brand new comics, so they know there is a demand. And it helps them sell more units than they otherwise would.)

 

The history of this hobby is publishers chasing the latest trends going all the way back to the beginning. Superheroes are selling, so let's publish superheroes. Horror comics sell, so lets pump out horror comics. Romance sells, so here are a bunch of romance titles. 3D comics were a trend for a while in the 50s?

 

I still cannot believe Marvel or DC haven't gone to a series of mini-series or a season format where they restart numbering at #1 every year. Marvel is close with the constant restarts whenever an event occurs.

I wonder if this strategy has cost Marvel readers?

They should bring back the numbering for Amazing Spider-Man and Uncanny X-Men to start. IMHO

I also wonder how big an impact Loot Crate has on the scene with sales?

That leaves me with a question maybe someone on here can answer for me. If a shop orders 500 copies of a book with the promise of partial or full returns if it doesn't sell. Does that Marvel or DC ever retract sales numbers for returned copies or do they just count all 500 as "sales"?

 

Obviously their internal numbers will reflect that. But we never see their numbers (outside of Statements of Ownership in years past).

 

ygogolak's link explains how Diamond's monthly charts (and estimates based on those charts) handle returnable issues.

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natevegas

natevegas

Posted
Posted

That article is a lot of fluff. Its just a guess but they say it leads to more sales. Blah blah. Comichron would be more accurate if they had better final sales numbers not just initial but in order to get that internal transparency would have to be present 2c

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CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted

I used to post it all the time back a couple years ago, but people should realize comichron doesnt actually have sales data.

 

Diamond releases a top 300 list, with specific numbers, just a single integer representing a relationship to Batman (as the traditionally most stable selling comic).

 

Batman always sells 100 units, and everything else is listed as an integer relative to it. (like a percent).

 

Comichron simply TAKES this information, accessible by retailers on Diamond, and apply an estimating function to turn the integers into units.

 

think like 1 point of index = x units sold.

 

Their formula I am sure had some decent research to it when they created it, but not one number on Comichron is "correct", they are all estimates based on a formula, applied to information Diamond releases. Also, comichron isnt the only source, other people have similar estimating formulas (icv2 for instance) and generally land in the same ball park.

 

Comichron gets referenced the most because the data they create is easily accessible including historical details.

 

So, key things to remember when talking comichron, they dont create the data, Diamond does, Comichron just multiplies them by a value to estimate units, and two, no actual number on comichron is actually correct, all just estimates based on that formula applied to Diamond's numbers.

 

 

Here's an example of Diamond's data:

http://www.diamondcomics.com/Home/1/1/3/597?articleID=182669

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fastballspecial

fastballspecial

Posted
Posted

So here is one nobody has brought up yet. This book seems to

be roughly ignored currently.

 

All New Marvel Now Point 1 1st Full Kamala Khan

 

Currently in Raw 1st Print $7-12 book

Undervalued?

 

Slabs are selling, but not many at $140-150 in 9.8

 

1/75 Variant still doesnt show up much

There is a 9.2 slabbed for $199

And a raw for $425 that looks to be 8.5 or so.

Cameo & Variant sold for $1k in 9.8

 

2nd prints seem to be at $5-10 currently.

 

Captain Marvel 17 2nd print

 

Raw - Seems to be a $200 book in high grade, but hard to tell

because sellers arent putting grades on many of the books.

 

9.8 Seems to settle at $600ish from what I can tell on ebay.

(One sale in Oct for over $700, but last 2 were $600ish)

 

 

 

 

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CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted

 

Captain Marvel 17 2nd print

 

 

that one is going to be very interesting in the future as a case study of this time period. There arent a lot of books that were so clearly manufactured on these boards like that one was, regardless of where it ends up 5 years from now, 10 years from now, its a fascinating one.

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fastballspecial

fastballspecial

Posted
Posted
What about the All-New, All Different? Also a first appearance.

 

Which one is that? There are so many of those books now I am getting confused by them. Was it related to X-23?

 

(thumbs u

 

Marvel isn't making it easy on us with those same title relaunches. I think that makes 3 or 4 of them with the same title or close to it.

 

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paul747

paul747

Posted
Posted

 

Captain Marvel 17 2nd print

 

 

that one is going to be very interesting in the future as a case study of this time period. There arent a lot of books that were so clearly manufactured on these boards like that one was, regardless of where it ends up 5 years from now, 10 years from now, its a fascinating one.

 

Its not manufactured. No one knew what book her first appearance was in. When it was confirmed the 2nd print came out of nowhere. Remember if it did not say it on the CGC label it did not happen. Rumored 1000-2000 print run and the first time we see the full Kamala khan as Ms Marvel using her powers on a killer cover! Perfect storm.

 

Still only 238 copies at CGC and just over 1/2 are hitting a 9.8. This book is steady at $550-$600 dollars . As you say time will tell the tale but I am betting that this book goes down as a top 5 modern from this time period. I sold most of my copies for this book and all of my Saga #1's and regret selling both.

 

If marvel does not impload and Kamala is ever confirmed for TV/Movie and Print run spec was correct....LOOK OUT !

 

lots of ifs and ands but who knows.

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ygogolak

ygogolak

Posted
Posted
What about the All-New, All Different? Also a first appearance.

 

Which one is that? There are so many of those books now I am getting confused by them. Was it related to X-23?

 

(thumbs u

 

Marvel isn't making it easy on us with those same title relaunches. I think that makes 3 or 4 of them with the same title or close to it.

 

Marvel Point One, Marvel Now Point One, All-New, All-Different Marvel Now point One.

What's so confusing? :roflmao:

 

Then, try and figure out how a store catalogs it in their back issues.

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Aweandlorder

Aweandlorder

Posted
Posted
What about the All-New, All Different? Also a first appearance.

 

Which one is that? There are so many of those books now I am getting confused by them. Was it related to X-23?

 

(thumbs u

 

Marvel isn't making it easy on us with those same title relaunches. I think that makes 3 or 4 of them with the same title or close to it.

 

Marvel Point One, Marvel Now Point One, All-New, All-Different Marvel Now point One.

What's so confusing? :roflmao:

 

Then, try and figure out how a store catalogs it in their back issues.

 

I wonder myself

eBay sellers clearly dont know how to:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CGC-9-8-Kamala-Khan-Collection-1st-Cover-Appearance-and-Series-/302136032874?hash=item4658b5fe6a:g:U9cAAOSwTA9X3vuk

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natevegas

natevegas

Posted
Posted
What about the All-New, All Different? Also a first appearance.

 

Which one is that? There are so many of those books now I am getting confused by them. Was it related to X-23?

 

(thumbs u

 

Marvel isn't making it easy on us with those same title relaunches. I think that makes 3 or 4 of them with the same title or close to it.

 

Marvel Point One, Marvel Now Point One, All-New, All-Different Marvel Now point One.

What's so confusing? :roflmao:

 

Then, try and figure out how a store catalogs it in their back issues.

Which All-New All-Different Marvel NOW are we talking about the first one or the second one. lol

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GLCBrad

GLCBrad

Posted
Posted
What about the All-New, All Different? Also a first appearance.

 

Which one is that? There are so many of those books now I am getting confused by them. Was it related to X-23?

 

(thumbs u

 

Marvel isn't making it easy on us with those same title relaunches. I think that makes 3 or 4 of them with the same title or close to it.

 

Marvel Point One, Marvel Now Point One, All-New, All-Different Marvel Now point One.

What's so confusing? :roflmao:

 

Then, try and figure out how a store catalogs it in their back issues.

Which All-New All-Different Marvel NOW are we talking about the first one or the second one. lol

 

Wow I just looked at sold eBay listings for this book. This might be ground zero for "everything might be worth something one day"

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ranx

ranx

Posted
Posted

The first 'point one' was promised as the start of everything good in the marvel universe and retailers bought accordingly, and so they still inhabit most dollar bins....

 

Feeling burn ( this is just from talking to the retailers in my area ). The second one, the one which has the first full appearance of Kamela Khan, got a lot less orders, thus even got a second printing.... Now I don't think this is common knowledge....

 

Also someone managed to get a few copies out of the 5 below bags, and posted this to all the spec websites.... This in my mind is why the 1st full appearance of Kamela Khan is still a 15-20 dollar book...Which is also why I think it's undervalued...

 

In stocks as well as comics, there are over-valued and under-valued items.... The intrinsic values of these are influenced by temporary emotional over-reactions; In my opinion this is good for an 'investor' as EVENTUALLY, the market will correct... This requires patience, which is not what speculators really like, it's not a quick flip...

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Lonzilla

Lonzilla

Posted
Posted

 

Feeling burn ( this is just from talking to the retailers in my area ). The second one, the one which has the first full appearance of Kamela Khan, got a lot less orders, thus even got a second printing.... Now I don't think this is common knowledge....

 

Also someone managed to get a few copies out of the 5 below bags, and posted this to all the spec websites.... This in my mind is why the 1st full appearance of Kamela Khan is still a 15-20 dollar book...Which is also why I think it's undervalued...

 

I'm sure it was way more than just someone getting a few of them out of Five Below packs. I got 10 1st prints and 5 2nd prints from the packs and they weren't hard to find as every store in the Philly area had a bunch. One or 2 people scored the incentive variant from Five Below which is quite a find, but as for the regular 1st printing, there's tons of them out there. With or without the Five Below stock

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