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Modern Speculation

Started by 1ForChrist,

141 posts in this topic

ranx

ranx

Posted
Posted

 

Feeling burn ( this is just from talking to the retailers in my area ). The second one, the one which has the first full appearance of Kamela Khan, got a lot less orders, thus even got a second printing.... Now I don't think this is common knowledge....

 

Also someone managed to get a few copies out of the 5 below bags, and posted this to all the spec websites.... This in my mind is why the 1st full appearance of Kamela Khan is still a 15-20 dollar book...Which is also why I think it's undervalued...

 

I'm sure it was way more than just someone getting a few of them out of Five Below packs. I got 10 1st prints and 5 2nd prints from the packs and they weren't hard to find as every store in the Philly area had a bunch. One or 2 people scored the incentive variant from Five Below which is quite a find, but as for the regular 1st printing, there's tons of them out there. With or without the Five Below stock

 

 

I can't imagine that it significantly added to the total available, I mean relative to the print run? which is kinda what I mean about an emotional over-reaction typical of a speculation rather then an investment mindset...

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the authority

the authority

Posted
Posted

 

Feeling burn ( this is just from talking to the retailers in my area ). The second one, the one which has the first full appearance of Kamela Khan, got a lot less orders, thus even got a second printing.... Now I don't think this is common knowledge....

 

Also someone managed to get a few copies out of the 5 below bags, and posted this to all the spec websites.... This in my mind is why the 1st full appearance of Kamela Khan is still a 15-20 dollar book...Which is also why I think it's undervalued...

 

I'm sure it was way more than just someone getting a few of them out of Five Below packs. I got 10 1st prints and 5 2nd prints from the packs and they weren't hard to find as every store in the Philly area had a bunch. One or 2 people scored the incentive variant from Five Below which is quite a find, but as for the regular 1st printing, there's tons of them out there. With or without the Five Below stock

 

 

I can't imagine that it significantly added to the total available, I mean relative to the print run? which is kinda what I mean about an emotional over-reaction typical of a speculation rather then an investment mindset...

 

 

Print run on the ANMNPO 1st print was around 32,000 and had a cover price of $5.99. It came in at #54 on Comichron.com in January 2014. With that kind of price, you'd think most would be nicely preserved...unless they didn't initially sell. That seems to be at least a possibility based on the 5 Below discovery. Either way, its probably worth hanging on to just in case she catches on with the public at large.

 

Comichron 1/2014

 

 

The trick there is that Marvel seems to be recognizing some of their new, now, all-new characters aren't catching on quite the way they had hoped. They've spent a lot of their resources pushing characters that don't seem to sell without a ratio variant attached to them. A recent article on Comicbookresources featuring an interview with Axel Alonso pointed out that all of these changes were simply coincidence. Seems unlikely but the fact that they are pushing traditional characters back in the lineup is probably the result of new characters not being read by many people. 2c

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fastballspecial

fastballspecial

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The first 'point one' was promised as the start of everything good in the marvel universe and retailers bought accordingly, and so they still inhabit most dollar bins....

 

Feeling burn ( this is just from talking to the retailers in my area ). The second one, the one which has the first full appearance of Kamela Khan, got a lot less orders, thus even got a second printing.... Now I don't think this is common knowledge....

 

Also someone managed to get a few copies out of the 5 below bags, and posted this to all the spec websites.... This in my mind is why the 1st full appearance of Kamela Khan is still a 15-20 dollar book...Which is also why I think it's undervalued...

 

In stocks as well as comics, there are over-valued and under-valued items.... The intrinsic values of these are influenced by temporary emotional over-reactions; In my opinion this is good for an 'investor' as EVENTUALLY, the market will correct... This requires patience, which is not what speculators really like, it's not a quick flip...

 

Yeah that about sums its up. The only unanswered questions is why did they do a 2nd print at all?

 

I'm glad Lon brought that up I forgot a few people did get the 1/75 variant as well. We can look at ASM 4 an example right? Value wise it plunged for awhile then a whiff of a movie appearance and the value went right back up to the point where demand has absorbed the extra copies?

 

 

 

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aerischan

aerischan

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In stocks as well as comics, there are over-valued and under-valued items.... The intrinsic values of these are influenced by temporary emotional over-reactions; In my opinion this is good for an 'investor' as EVENTUALLY, the market will correct... This requires patience, which is not what speculators really like, it's not a quick flip...

I think one difficulty with comic investing is that comics inherently have no intrinsic value.

 

Regardless of how the stock market is doing, companies still have earnings, land, property, equipment, etc. Heck, even when the market was down in 2008/2009, Apple was still making billions in revenue.

 

Meanwhile, a comic's value is tied with what other people are willing to pay. There are no dividends. All profit/loss is determined by the buy and sell price and the sell price is driven by how desirable the comic is to other people. That desirability is greatly affected by current trends, movie news, etc.

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Lazyboy

Lazyboy

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Print run on the ANMNPO 1st print was around 32,000 and had a cover price of $5.99. It came in at #54 on Comichron.com in January 2014. With that kind of price, you'd think most would be nicely preserved...unless they didn't initially sell. That seems to be at least a possibility based on the 5 Below discovery. Either way, its probably worth hanging on to just in case she catches on with the public at large.

 

Comichron 1/2014

 

 

Comichron does not have monthly print run data. Comichron has North American Direct Market distribution numbers that are estimated based on the Diamond index.

 

Those 33000-ish (did you really round 32929 down to 32000?) copies did sell... to retailers, if not readers or collectors. How many more were printed, we don't know, because there is no reason for Marvel to have to or want to release those numbers.

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the authority

the authority

Posted
Posted

Print run on the ANMNPO 1st print was around 32,000 and had a cover price of $5.99. It came in at #54 on Comichron.com in January 2014. With that kind of price, you'd think most would be nicely preserved...unless they didn't initially sell. That seems to be at least a possibility based on the 5 Below discovery. Either way, its probably worth hanging on to just in case she catches on with the public at large.

 

Comichron 1/2014

 

 

Comichron does not have monthly print run data. Comichron has North American Direct Market distribution numbers that are estimated based on the Diamond index.

 

Those 33000-ish (did you really round 32929 down to 32000?) copies did sell... to retailers, if not readers or collectors. How many more were printed, we don't know, because there is no reason for Marvel to have to or want to release those numbers.

 

I really did round down to "around" 32,000. I could have used around 25,000, around 30,000, or around 40,000 and still have been relatively close as any would have served my point. This is in no way a short printed, scarce, or rare book. Demand at the moment doesn't seem to be overly high as there are dozens ( is this close enough or would you like me to count each of them ? lol ) of these available on ebay as of this writing.

 

On a separate note, what source other than Comichron do you use to estimate print runs on recent books. Please share all of the information that you have available in reference to this book. Comichron is as close as I've seen.

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Lazyboy

Lazyboy

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I know of no source that can be used to estimate print runs of books like ANMNPO. There is simply no public information on which an estimate can be based.

 

I do believe the estimated numbers from Comichron are reasonable, even if they aren't perfect. But again, those are not print run numbers.

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ranx

ranx

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I think 30,000 is relatively small for what is supposed to be such a key book to the universe.... I mean if you compare to the million or so of spiderman reboot....

 

This comparable to saga #1 in print run numbers, which maybe high for an independent a few years ago...

 

I think that loot crate for example had 200,000 ( though the regular cover was a lot smaller ) black panthers made...

 

while I find it interesting the comment about comics having no 'intrinsic' value, I guess I then want to try a different word, like 'rational' value or 'non-emotional'....( but it still brings up an important point )....like when you realize how many nm 98s are out there.

 

ANMNPO since it is so large is difficult to find without a spine tick in the center, the size seems to make it naturally curve inwards and causes this....

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aerischan

aerischan

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Anyone speculate as early as Previews order cut off date? I'm curious to know how well you do over all when ordering months in advance.

 

I am quite sure we have several that do that. On another board I know one boardie who basically orders 50+ single books at his LCS.

Given this thread: http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9718980#Post9718980

 

I'm sure there are those that do.

 

Although with the 35-50% preorder discount from DCBS and Midtown, the bar for breaking even/turning a profit is lower versus if one is paying full cover even after factoring shipping.

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Bird

Bird

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I got tired of chasing new variants every week and went the previews spec route 6-8 months ago. I still sell too early and too low but it has been fun and more $ comes in than goes out and books and filling longboxes on my shelves as well. Not all selling (want some Batgirl?) and a ton of work though.

 

I bought a Mignola inked sketch (mostly) with the proceeds last week. So I'll keep doing it within reason. Cutting a few titles now in fact. But I do it to keep busy, as a hobby. If it felt too much I would stop. I still haven't picked up last week's books for instance, no big deal I'll get them this week with the new stuff. Then I'll list like a madman one morning when I cannot sleep.

 

I get 10-20 copies of a few things, only more than that on one or two things a month. The LCS I work with makes a good $ and I get his best copies and he works with me for variants so that I don't have to buy all the copies myself. If I could sell 200 auctions a month I would buy more, but...

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Reno McCoy

Reno McCoy

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I've never been much of a speculator, but occasionally buy 3 copies of a book I think will do well. I can do that fairly well, but I've never been able to do it that often with super heroes books (non first issues). I've been tempted a few times to dive in a little deeper, but I don't pull the trigger on selling fast enough. And, to be honest, I often let the cover art sway me one way. In other words, I haven't done it enough to know if I could be good at finding diamonds in the rough months before word of mouth starts to heat things up. Just not always sure what to look for in solicitations.

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