Why comic OA is better than fine art 1 1

[kav]

2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Drop in the bucket compared to the millions whose attention has been diverted elsewhere. 

The plural of "anecdote" is not "evidence". 

Your first statement is anecdotal-or show me the stats.  Show me the decline in comics value across the boards as collectors are dying out and 'kids' arent replacing them.

Edited August 28, 2017 by kav

[delekkerste]

Pretty easy when you look at unit comic sales. Go to Comicchron, look at the data,  and tell me people's interests haven't been splintered just like I've said. 

Smaller gateway = fewer future collectors 

[kav]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

Pretty easy when you look at unit comic sales. Go to Comicchron, look at the data,  and tell me people's interests haven't been splintered just like I've said. 

Smaller gateway = fewer future collectors 

I said across the board-that includes GA, SA etc and keys.  Show me where planet comic values have dropped drastically so I can go and buy em.

Edited August 28, 2017 by kav

[vodou]

24 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Funny how comic guys in their 40s-60s seem to revere PRB art more than just about anyone else - must be the BWS and, to a lesser extent, Studio-era Jones influences.

For me it's The Orientalists. I blame Bud Plant's catalogs for that, there was a period (90s?) where he highlighted several coffee table books on the subject every single mailing. For (seemed like) a decade. Until June of this year they were all just pictures in books for me, then I (finally) got to The Met and wow...they, as a group, really are something else.

[delekkerste]

9 minutes ago, kav said:

I said across the board-that includes GA, SA etc and keys.  Show me where planet comic values have dropped drastically so I can go and buy em.

Just give it 20-30 yrs. Maybe less.  The generations that broadly grew up with comics will age out by then. 

Edited August 28, 2017 by delekkerste

[kav]

Just now, delekkerste said:

Just give it 20-30 yrs. Maybe less. 

If you are basing that on comichron current sales that figure does not take into account the huge number of collectors like myself who never buy new books, only vintage.  

[kav]

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I just don't think you are right.  But if so thats great news for the small number of future collectors who can acquire massive collections for cheap.

[delekkerste]

9 minutes ago, kav said:

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I just don't think you are right.  But if so thats great news for the small number of future collectors who can acquire massive collections for cheap.

Sure, it will be great to be young, rich and into old comics in 30 years.  But, aside from certain revolutions, it's pretty much always good to be young and rich. 

[kav]

Just now, delekkerste said:

Sure, it will be great to be young, rich and into old comics in 30 years.  But, aside from certain revolutions, it's pretty much always good to be young and rich. 

No if they implode like you say you wont need to be rich to get tons of books.  And those will be the people who actually love to read the books.  There's so many books I would love to read that are encased in slabs.

[delekkerste]

12 minutes ago, kav said:

If you are basing that on comichron current sales that figure does not take into account the huge number of collectors like myself who never buy new books, only vintage.  

You're already into comics. I'm talking about new comics as the gateway to vintage comics for new collectors. 

[delekkerste]

1 minute ago, kav said:

No if they implode like you say you wont need to be rich to get tons of books.  And those will be the people who actually love to read the books.  There's so many books I would love to read that are encased in slabs.

Sure, but if you're one of the millions of future serfs with tons of student debt, you won't be able to afford these books even at lower prices. 

[kav]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

You're already into comics. I'm talking about new comics as the gateway to vintage comics for new collectors. 

Yes true.   Well maybe if Marvel stops producing crud where every issue is a new universe with 300 variant covers and dialogue out of a sitcom that could start happening again.... 

[kav]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

Sure, but if you're one of the millions of future serfs with tons of student debt, you won't be able to afford these books even at lower prices. 

Dont get student debt.  Become a plumber and make 100K a year instead of degree in English working at Starbux.....

[delekkerste]

27 minutes ago, vodou said:

For me it's The Orientalists. I blame Bud Plant's catalogs for that, there was a period (90s?) where he highlighted several coffee table books on the subject every single mailing. For (seemed like) a decade. Until June of this year they were all just pictures in books for me, then I (finally) got to The Met and wow...they, as a group, really are something else.

Hope you caught the PRB exhibition at The National Gallery or the Tate Britain back in 2012-13 (I saw it at the Tate Britain in 2012, which I believe had about 30 more pieces that did not travel).  Not sure we'll ever see an assemblage quite like that again anytime soon. 

[vodou]

14 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Hope you caught the PRB exhibition at The National Gallery or the Tate Britain back in 2012-13 (I saw it at the Tate Britain in 2012, which I believe had about 30 more pieces that did not travel).  Not sure we'll ever see an assemblage quite like that again anytime soon. 

Did not. I'm okay with the occasional permanent PRB examples up at the Boston MFA. That's enough for me and I leave the love of BWS to yourself and others too

Even The Orientalists...once I would have committed murder during armed robbery to hang one in my home, but now...well, tastes change, I guess. They are nice. But I no longer feel any urge to own one, or even think about how to do that (raising 500k for a decent example). They're just objects and I'd rather go visit them occasionally than care for them full-time. On reflection, part of this change of heart is that I have fleshed out (and refined) my own collection in some rather unexpected ways the last fifteen years. What was once in my mind unobtainable has been obtained. Many times over; the fire (to acquire) burns less brightly now. I know it's  sacrilege 'round these parts but...I even feel this way about Frazetta oils now. Funny thing is that my collection today, FMV aside, is vastly superior (aesthetically, to me) than a Frazetta, as in, many singular pieces I would not trade 1:1 for a top Frazetta oil. I think you've been coming to a similar opportunity cost conclusion yourself since you went on such a spending spree the last five (?) years!

[Mighty Hal]

31 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Just give it 20-30 yrs. Maybe less.  The generations that broadly grew up with comics will age out by then. 

Gene, it feels like you've been predicting the impending demise of comics/comic art for years. The market remains robust. If anyone reacted to your earlier predictions and sold their stuff, they left  money on the table.

The future of the $3.99 floppy may not look bright, but the graphic novel area of my local library is growing rapidly. Some of those books have been read to death! Those crazy kids aren't hitting the LCS like before but a ton of them are reading both legal and pirated comics on the internet. A younger generation is still getting exposed to comics, just in a different way than in the past.

What I'm saying is, no one knows what will happen in the years ahead, including when or if our hobby goes away. 

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, Hal Turner said:

Gene, it feels like you've been predicting the impending demise of comics/comic art for years. The market remains robust. If anyone reacted to your earlier predictions and sold their stuff, they left  money on the table.

The future of the $3.99 floppy may not look bright, but the graphic novel area of my local library is growing rapidly. Some of those books have been read to death! Those crazy kids aren't hitting the LCS like before but a ton of them are reading both legal and pirated comics on the internet. A younger generation is still getting exposed to comics, just in a different way than in the past.

What I'm saying is, no one knows what will happen in the years ahead, including when or if our hobby goes away. 

Wrong back in the day about impending demise for sure.  Not been calling for an impending demise in a long time though. 

You are wrong if you think that the future is completely unknowable.  Many times, the long-term trends are easiest to predict.  Like the fact that everyone here will be dead in 150 years.  Or that the younger generations will not have neither the aggregate interest nor the aggregate resources to clear the market at ever-higher prices when the Gen Xers and older generations call it a day. 

The fact that the market is strong now does not have any bearing on what happens in 20-30 years (possibly sooner). In fact, the higher we go now, the higher the barriers to entry get and the more sure it is that the market will have to fall in the future to clear the market when the demographic changeover occurs. 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by delekkerste

[PhilipB2k17]

I think Gene is mostly correct that long term demographics probably do not favor comic books or even OA as an investment. But, I think medium term, the hobby (OA, particularly) will grow. I just attended a Con and know several dealers who were there. They know I collect OA, and are asking me more questions about getting into it. I know this is anecdotal, but the universe of comic collectors is still larger than OA collectors, and there's still a lot of room to grow in OA by converting comic collectors into OA collectors. There's at least 20 years of that potential growth, I think.

What would be interesting is to do a survey on comic collecting and OA collecting among the general population, and also among comic collectors generally. Break down the demographics, etc.

But, that is a subject that is not wholly related to this thread. The fine art market, at its core, is a tax dodge and investment market. It's a store of value for liquid assets, for the most part. It's also a status symbol. There are a few OA artists who are breaking through into that realm, such as Frazetta and Crumb. And I expect a few more will eventually. 

But, Modern Art - like Modern OA - gets the benefit of speculation from people who want to buy pieces at the ground floor, hoping they turn into the next De Koonig, or Lichtenstein, etc. - or Dark Knight Returns Walking Dead, or Killing Joke. I brought this up in a previous thread. There's an incentive to turn a new modern artist into a big name by the people who "discover" them, and also who own a lot pf their work.

Will physical comic collecting go away? I think people buying individual issues might. But, I think folks will shift to collecting trades, and that may be how these things come out in the future, along with digital. Remember how Amazon and the Kindle was going to kill physical book sales? It dipped initially, but people actually like reading physical books. As long as there is a desire for illustrated sequential storytelling, there will be comic book OA.

Gene is also correct that certain types of antique categories are losing value. But, that is a function of changing tastes and society. Furniture is a great example. In a generation of people who like spare, modern styling, or IKEA, who is going to want an ornate 19th century china hutch? Heck, people don't even buy fine china or silverware any longer.

And, decorative arts have always been fragmented. There were always niche collectors of pre-Columbian art, or African art, etc.

But lets look at the rise in prices of classic movie posters. Why do these continue to go up in price? Or rare books? Because people still watch movies, or read books. They may not have fancy dinner parties with fine china or silverware. But they read, and watch created content on an entertainment device.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[vodou]

10 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

There's at least 20 years of that potential growth, I think.

This is a stretch. I assume you mean growth = beating inflation. And if so, then that means incomes among those interested in spending also beating inflation and beating "growth", because that's the only way collectors that don't already have a massive (and trade-able) net position in comics/art could entertain getting a leg up on the thing, leverage if you will. Otherwise you're depending purely on aspirationals trying to grab a slice of the pie before it all gets away from them. That's not what encourages collectors to collect - at entry level.

Or it's all gonna be kids of today's billionaires that inherit and just wanna get more toys

[PhilipB2k17]

8 minutes ago, vodou said:

This is a stretch. I assume you mean growth = beating inflation. And if so, then that means incomes among those interested in spending also beating inflation and beating "growth", because that's the only way collectors that don't already have a massive (and trade-able) net position in comics/art could entertain getting a leg up on the thing, leverage if you will. Otherwise you're depending purely on aspirationals trying to grab a slice of the pie before it all gets away from them. That's not what encourages collectors to collect - at entry level.

Or it's all gonna be kids of today's billionaires that inherit and just wanna get more toys

I'd guess that the ratio of Comic Collectors to OA collectors is at least 10 to 1.  Just reducing that ratio to 9 or 8 to one adds a lot of new money chasing OA than existed before. Yes, there is a barrier to entry, but given the ratio involved there's plenty of room to grow as people reach prime earning years. 

I put a 20 year horizon on it, but it could be 15...or 25. 

20 seems about right as that is when Gen Xers start hitting retirement age and may be ready to unload their collections. It's also around the time a lot of baby boom collectors start dying off in large numbers. (Harsh to say, but it's a fact of life). 

And, as I said, it would be interesting to see a market survey to determine the actual growth potential. I suspect some folks have done that, privately, which is why you see investors and speculators jump into the higher end of the OA market  

But, in the medium term, Idbe pretty wary of heavily investing in OA whose value is being driven largely by baby boomer nostalgia. 

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17