AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022) 2 2

[Bosco685]

On 1/2/2023 at 12:19 PM, drotto said:

Any way this does not hit 2 billion at this point?

Now industry analysts are predicting it will due to the number of times each box office report surpasses estimates. And this will now be the third $1.5B box office film for James Cameron.

 

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

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Avatar: The Way of Water beat estimates over the four-day New Year’s holiday weekend at the box office to rise past $1.4+ billion at the global box office. The film should hit $1.5 billion sometime on Tuesday, topping Top Gun: Maverick as the highest-grossing release of 2022.

 

However, we are once again in “never underestimate James Cameron” territory here, and next weekend should see the film climb to $1.65-1.7+/- billion. I’d previously grown to suspect Avatar 2 wouldn’t quite have enough momentum to hit $2 billion, but audiences are sending the message loud and clear that $2 billion is definitely still on the table.

 

Indeed, unless its momentum slows considerably through January, it looks not only possible but increasingly likely that Avatar: The Way of Water is going to eventually reach $2 billion after all. And if Avatar: The Way of Water does reach $2 billion, it will be only the sixth movie in history to do so, along with Avatar ($2.92 billion), Avengers: Endgame ($2.79 billion), Titanic ($2.2 billion), Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens ($2.069 billion), and Avengers: Infinity War ($2.048 billion).

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At this point, despite debate on the subject and Cameron’s statements about the budget necessitating a top-three all-time finish, Avatar: The Way of Water has covered its production budget and marketing costs. And it’s important to keep reminding everyone that much of the large investment on the front end of producing this film also went into the sequel Avatar 3 — which was filmed at the same time as Avatar: The Way of Water, has already finished principal photography, and releases in theaters at Christmas of 2024. Later Avatar sequels will have lower costs for this reason, too.

 

But yes, Avatar 2 was expensive to make and to market, so it definitely needed to be a blockbuster hit just to cover its investments. I’d say it reached break-even at around $1.2 billion, and that’s not counting the point made above about costs actually being shared somewhat with Avatar 3 and other sequels, or the fact it got tax rebates and other revenue on the front end to reduce the actual total out of pocket expenses.

@drotto even the industry analysts are now calling out the future sequel investments on the front-end leading to lower costs in the future. Along with Avatar 3 and Avatar 4 Act One shot at the same time.

Honestly, it is crazy how strong this movie is doing. No matter if anyone wanted this or not. All indications point to many general audiences around the world did.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Bosco685

[Bosco685]

 

[mtracy64]

On 1/2/2023 at 8:45 PM, Bosco685 said:

 

Is Gavin calling Gitesh a liar, or are we supposed to interpret "This never happened" to mean "This had never happened before"? Either way, it's something which realistically could only happen when Christmas Eve and Christmas Day both fall on a weekend.

[drotto]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:06 PM, mtracy64 said:

Is Gavin calling Gitesh a liar, or are we supposed to interpret "This never happened" to mean "This had never happened before"? Either way, it's something which realistically could only happen when Christmas Eve and Christmas Day both fall on a weekend.

I also think the really bad winter storms and cold weather may have affected the domestic box office.  Many people who may have wanted to see the film were kept form seeing it, then came the holiday weekend, and New Years weekend was their first chance to go.

[MattTheDuck]

Went last night - 9 pm showing.  Not sold out, but a nice crowd including an entire family of probably 8 or 10.  

Now, I did not see the first Avatar.  I thought this movie suffered from three things: one was the self-indulgent, very long sequences of characters swimming around underwater.  Beautiful?  Absolutely.  45 minutes too long?  Double absolutely.  Very little of it advanced the story.  Second was the irredeemably evil "bad guys."  Cardboard cut-out characters. If there'd been a puppy-analog they would have shot it for fun.  Third was creating this incredible alien world and then populating it with aliens that look and act very similar to human beings.  Not very imaginative.

[Bosco685]

On 1/2/2023 at 9:06 PM, mtracy64 said:

Is Gavin calling Gitesh a liar, or are we supposed to interpret "This never happened" to mean "This had never happened before"? Either way, it's something which realistically could only happen when Christmas Eve and Christmas Day both fall on a weekend.

It's actually supporting what Gitesh noted - but with numbers when you see every big movie noted had a third week dropoff when compared to the second weekend. But for Avatar 2, its third weekend actually increased.

The post was worded oddly, as I thought the same at first.

On 1/2/2023 at 10:55 PM, drotto said:

I also think the really bad winter storms and cold weather may have affected the domestic box office.  Many people who may have wanted to see the film were kept form seeing it, then came the holiday weekend, and New Years weekend was their first chance to go.

See above. I agree with you on the root cause for the third week increase. But that would mean all the other movies never had the same weather impacts. Ever. Which then it makes the theory less plausible as the sole contributor, and actual it may come down to weather and word of mouth too leading to a 5% increase week-over-week. The other would be release schedules when considering worldwide timing. But the latter wasn't the contributor for Avatar 2.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Bosco685

[Bosco685]

[Bosco685]

China keeps going up

 

[Bosco685]

 

[Axelrod]

On 1/3/2023 at 4:11 AM, Bosco685 said:

It's actually supporting what Gitesh noted - but with numbers when you see every big movie noted had a third week dropoff when compared to the second weekend. But for Avatar 2, its third weekend actually increased.

The post was worded oddly, as I thought the same at first.

See above. I agree with you on the root cause for the third week increase. But that would mean all the other movies never had the same weather impacts. Ever. Which then it makes the theory less plausible as the sole contributor, and actual it may come down to weather and word of mouth too leading to a 5% increase week-over-week. The other would be release schedules when considering worldwide timing. But the latter wasn't the contributor for Avatar 2.

I think another factor here is simply the dearth of other options.  I see a lot of movies and there is not much else out there right now.  Puss in Boots?  And....?  Avatar really has the market all to itself. 

[jsilverjanet]

been wanting to go but it seems all the 3d theaters are full when i have a 3 hour window

really amazing how well this is still doing

[sledgehammer]

On 5/19/2019 at 6:46 AM, ComicConnoisseur said:

On 5/18/2019 at 11:30 PM, Red84 said:

With all the sequels already planned, its going to be pretty funny when Avatar 2 bombs.

(And yes, "bombs" is relative, but in this case I expect it to make less than a billion worldwide. In the age of Marvel, there's no room for Avatar 2, 3, 4, ...)

Honestly, I saw the first picture it was ok and liked it. I really though haven't been on the edge of my seat waiting for a sequel, yet alone 3 more sequels. Not saying the first picture was bad,but kind of agree with you that the sequels won't set the box office on fire.

I miss CC.

I remember him telling us that "Speed Racer" was going to be the ultimate box office smash.

[jsilverjanet]

On 1/3/2023 at 12:41 PM, sledgehammer said:

I miss CC.

I remember him telling us that "Speed Racer" was going to be the ultimate box office smash.

he's still around under a different name

[adampasz]

I saw it last night. The technical achievement is mind-blowing, but I just couldn’t connect to it emotionally after the first hour or so. I spent too much time sitting in the Uncanny Valley, scrutinizing the effects. Overall, I found it grim, humorless, and an hour too long.

I wanted to see it in the theater for the experience. I enjoyed the experience for a while. But by the third hour, I was ready to be done.

Minor spoiler about a character who shows up in the first 20 minutes…

Spoiler

The character of Spider in this movie reminded me so much of Kamandi! Every time he was on screen, I kept wishing Cameron had used his vast resources to make an awesome Kamandi film instead.

[drotto]

On 1/3/2023 at 2:08 PM, adampasz said:

I saw it last night. The technical achievement is mind-blowing, but I just couldn’t connect to it emotionally after the first hour or so. I spent too much time sitting in the Uncanny Valley, scrutinizing the effects. Overall, I found it grim, humorless, and an hour too long.

I wanted to see it in the theater for the experience. I enjoyed the experience for a while. But by the third hour, I was ready to be done.

Minor spoiler about a character who shows up in the first 20 minutes…

  Reveal hidden contents

The character of Spider in this movie reminded me so much of Kamandi! Every time he was on screen, I kept wishing Cameron had used his vast resources to make an awesome Kamandi film instead.

The odd thing about the uncanny Valley for me was the real human actors looked more out of place then the fully digital ones. So I was fine with the pixel ones, but real people bothered me. It makes sense, beacuase much of the sets and background were CGI but it is not what I expected.  After about 1 hour, I got over it for some reason.

[Bosco685]

On 1/3/2023 at 1:37 PM, Axelrod said:

I think another factor here is simply the dearth of other options.  I see a lot of movies and there is not much else out there right now.  Puss in Boots?  And....?  Avatar really has the market all to itself. 

I would agree "nothing else to see" would be a bigger factor if we were not talking about this film rushing to $1.5B worldwide. But naturally it does play into all the other factors.

[Bosco685]

On 1/3/2023 at 1:59 PM, jsilverjanet said:

he's still around under a different name

Is he? I didn't realize that.

[Bosco685]