AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022) 2 2

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

On 12/27/2022 at 12:38 PM, 1Cool said:

But they didn't necessarily need to make the 2nd film to continue to rake in the money from those sources.  I guess there could be a theme water park in the future after this film which would add some serious cash into the coffers.  I think you get my point that box office numbers are just one part of the total profits of a hit movie considering all the ways people watch a movie.  I'd think if Avatar 2 does 4x in box office numbers (looks doable) then it will be a huge success for Disney.

A successful film needs to surpass 2.5x-2.8x production budget. So the 4.0x would be a massive success for a film with an expense of this size.

[Bosco685]

Turns out Monday's estimates were under from reality.

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Bosco685

[kimik]

Is there any competition coming to the box office in January? If not, this movie will continue to run for a while. 

I guess I will be one of the few who will not see it.  

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/27/2022 at 9:43 AM, Bosco685 said:

A successful film needs to surpass 2.5x-2.8x production budget. So the 4.0x would be a massive success for a film with an expense of this size.

Except James Cameron himself has debunked this number, and I don't think it has been accurate since at least the early 2000s when the international / world marketplace became a larger factor.  Even Mark Hughes at forbes put it at a "minimum" of 3x for Black Adam (although most industry observers that aren't fanbois put the multiple for that bomb higher than that).

It's more like 3x on an absolute minimum to break even theatrically, and up to 4x-4.5x for a typical MCU film or something like avatar 2. You're also putting your thumb on the scale (again) by putting a lowball estimate of the budget for avatar 2.  The number is 460M, not 350.

-J.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Jaydogrules

[paperheart]

On 12/27/2022 at 3:47 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Except James Cameron himself has debunked this number, and I don't think it has been accurate since at least the early 2000s when the international / world marketplace became a larger factor.  

It's more like 3x on an absolute minimum, and up to 4x-4.5x for a typical MCU film or something like avatar 2.

-J.

someone posted there's another interview with Cameron floating around where he put break-even at $1.6B; haven't found it- that would be 4.5x the $360M

[Bosco685]

On 12/27/2022 at 6:47 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Except James Cameron himself has debunked this number, and I don't think it has been accurate since at least the early 2000s when the international / world marketplace became a larger factor.  Even Mark Hughes at forbes put it at a "minimum" of 3x for Black Adam (although most industry observers that aren't fanbois put the multiple for that bomb higher than that).

It's more like 3x on an absolute minimum to break even theatrically, and up to 4x-4.5x for a typical MCU film or something like avatar 2. You're also putting your thumb on the scale (again) by putting a lowball estimate of the budget for avatar 2.  The number is 460M, not 350.

-J.

Except - as has been noted a few times - Cameron is blending in Avatar 2 and 3 scenes in the same production so the expense breakoff was not accounted for with his statement. As he did the same thing with Avatar 3 including shooting for Avatar 4.

But that probably shot right by.

[drotto]

On 12/27/2022 at 8:08 PM, Bosco685 said:

Except - as has been noted a few times - Cameron is blending in Avatar 2 and 3 scenes in the same production so the expense breakoff was not accounted for with his statement. As he did the same thing with Avatar 3 including shooting for Avatar 4.

But that probably shot right by.

The other thing is that the production budget may be extremely front loaded for these films.  The technology, the facilities, soundstages, props, wardrobe, and scenery to make the movies has already been constructed, and is all part of Avatar 2's budget.   Granted there will  be more stuff built, but a lot of the stuff that will be reused is done, and likely is part of part 2's budget. That is why the actual budget's will (in theory) decrease with the next installments.  Cameron has also reported that scenes for part 4 have even been filmed.

[Bosco685]

In case you missed this important detail. Avatar 2, Avatar 3 and parts of Avatar 4 were shot back-to-back.

Avatar 2 & 3 Filmed Back-To-Back To Avoid A Stranger Things Problem

Quote

During a recent interview with EW, Cameron opened up about one major reason he decided to shoot Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar 3, and the first act of Avatar 4 at the same time. The Avatar writer/director says he wanted to avoid what he calls "the Stranger Things effect," coining a new phrase to describe the obvious growth spurts child actors can have on projects that last multiple years. For instance, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss was seven years old when she was first cast as Tuk and she is now a teenager. Similarly, Spider actor Jack Champion was twelve and is now eighteen and "growing like a weed," according to Cameron. Read his explanation for shooting the sequels back-to-back below:

 

"Otherwise, you get — and I love Stranger Things — but you get the Stranger Things effect where they're supposed to still be in high school [but] they look like they're 27. You know, I love the show. It's okay, we'll suspend disbelief. We like the characters, but, you know."

 

 

[Bosco685]

On 12/27/2022 at 8:16 PM, drotto said:

The other thing is that the production budget may be extremely front loaded for these films.  The technology, the facilities, soundstages, props, wardrobe, and scenery to make the movies has already been constructed, and is all part of Avatar 2's budget.   Granted there will  be more stuff built, but a lot of the stuff that will be reused is done, and likely is part of part 2's budget. That is why the actual budget's will (in theory) decrease with the next installments.  Cameron has also reported that scenes for part 4 have even been filmed.

I noted this the other day, so we are aligned. But it got buried in, "But Cameron said it has to make $2B to break even!"

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/27/2022 at 5:19 PM, Bosco685 said:

In case you missed this important detail. Avatar 2, Avatar 3 and parts of Avatar 4 were shot back-to-back.

Avatar 2 & 3 Filmed Back-To-Back To Avoid A Stranger Things Problem

 

 

...except nowhere here or anywhere  does he say he is conflating the budgets of the movie with the others.  Obviously, those movies will have their own reported budgets, no Hollywood bean counter (or any accountant worth a whit) in their right mind would do what you are proposing.), especially with the profit participation of Cameron, other producers and likely even some of the cast.  

In fact he makes it a point to NOT say this.  

Until or unless he says something definitive to the contrary, you should report what's in nearly ALL industry media - and that is 460M for this movie.  

You did the same thing with the aquaman and the GOTG 2 budgets.  I appreciate your charts and input but you should try to at least report the data in a non-partisan manner, if you are going to do it, basing it on publicly available info and not your personal preferences/wish casting.

-J.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Jaydogrules

[drotto]

On 12/27/2022 at 8:21 PM, Bosco685 said:

I noted this the other day, so we are aligned. But it got buried in, "But Cameron said it has to make $2B to break even!"

I was just reinforcing what you had said. 

[Bosco685]

On 12/27/2022 at 9:33 PM, Jaydogrules said:

...except nowhere here or anywhere  does he say he is conflating the budgets of the movie with the others.  Obviously, those movies will have their own reported budgets, no Hollywood bean counter (or any accountant worth a whit) in their right mind would do what you are proposing.), especially with the profit participation of Cameron, other producers and likely even some of the cast.  

In fact he makes it a point to NOT say this.  

Until or unless he says something definitive to the contrary, you should report what's in nearly ALL industry media - and that is 460M for this movie.  

You did the same thing with the aquaman and the GOTG 2 budgets.  I appreciate your charts and input but you should try to at least report the data in a non-partisan manner, if you are going to do it, basing it on publicly available info and not your personal preferences/wish casting.

-J.

Your modification of balance sheet facts and then implying I apply personal preferences and 'wish-casting' (whatever that means) seems like you need to force YOUR reality into a discussion and acting like an auditor checking work on a comic book forum.

James Cameron has noted he purposely filmed these movies grouped together (same interview as the breakeven statement). There is never any accounting clarifications how he ensured Film 2's budget stopped and Film 3 and Film 4's budgets began. He just kept shooting to knock these films out to beat the clock. And is quoted on this just as clearly as "You have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.” Which is the crazy statement made to GQ during an interview.

Now you and two others should knock off the personal character attacks to force YOUR TRUTH over movie financials on a comic book forum.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Bosco685
Inserted GQ interview quote

[Bosco685]

On 12/27/2022 at 9:49 PM, drotto said:

I was just reinforcing what you had said. 

In reading the GQ interview with James Cameron (click here), that is where he notes the breakeven statement and that he filmed Avatar 2, 3 and parts of 4 together.

Interesting how the latter statement gets ignored for whatever reason.

[Gatsby77]

On 12/28/2022 at 3:41 AM, Bosco685 said:

James Cameron has noted he purposely filmed these movies grouped together (same interview as the breakeven statement). There is never any accounting clarifications how he ensured Film 2's budget stopped and Film 3 and Film 4's budgets began. He just kept shooting to knock these films out to beat the clock. And is quoted on this just as clearly as "You have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.” Which is the crazy statement made to GQ during an interview.

No.

You're guessing - also known as making things up - inferring something that has never been stated - nor jives with the reality of independent budgets for past film series that were also shot back-to-back.

The most-reported budget for this singular film, Avatar 2, so far is ~$460 million (reported by Deadline, and presumptively validated by Cameron's noting - as reported by Variety, GQ and others, that the break-even for *this* film was ~$2.0 billion - based on his quote In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”).

That quote refers to *this* film - not 2+3 or 2+3+4.

Yes - he's shooting back-to-back, but that doesn't mean the budgets are inseparable - nor that the Avatar 3 will cost less, despite that's being a logical inference because much of the sets and and costume work is done.

See the Lord of the Rings trilogy and Matrix 2-3 -- shot back-to-back with separate budgets that did not get cheaper as they went along.

[Bosco685]

On 12/28/2022 at 4:57 AM, Gatsby77 said:

No.

You're guessing - also known as making things up - inferring something that has never been stated - nor jives with the reality of independent budgets for past film series that were also shot back-to-back.

The most-reported budget for this singular film, Avatar 2, so far is ~$460 million (reported by Deadline, and presumptively validated by Cameron's noting - as reported by Variety, GQ and others, that the break-even for *this* film was ~$2.0 billion - based on his quote In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”).

That quote refers to *this* film - not 2+3 or 2+3+4.

Yes - he's shooting back-to-back, but that doesn't mean the budgets are inseparable - nor that the Avatar 3 will cost less, despite that's being a logical inference because much of the sets and and costume work is done.

See the Lord of the Rings trilogy and Matrix 2-3 -- shot back-to-back with separate budgets that did not get cheaper as they went along.

Happy Holidays!

[Bosco685]

The Return of James Cameron, Box Office King

Quote

The Way of Water was expensive to make—How expensive? “Very ,” according to Cameron, who told me he’d informed the studio that the film represented “the worst business case in movie history.” In order to be profitable, he’d said, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

Quote

Cameron told me he’d already shot all of a third Avatar, and the first act of a fourth. There is a -script for a fifth and an intention to make it, as long as the business of Avatar holds up between now and then.

In the same interview. Both quotes. Reality!

[Gatsby77]

On 12/28/2022 at 5:52 AM, Bosco685 said:

The Return of James Cameron, Box Office King

In the same interview. Both quotes. Reality!

Exactly - and these two quotes have nothing to do with each other:

1) For Avatar 2 to be profitable, it has to hit ~$2 bn. in worldwide box office.

2) He's finished shooting Avatar 3, much of Avatar 4 & some of Avatar 5.

They're separate statements.

It'd be different if Cameron said something like "Avatar 2-4 have to gross a combined total of $5 bn." - He specifically didn't, but rather referenced the break-even cost for only this singular film.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Gatsby77

[Bosco685]

On 12/28/2022 at 6:05 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Exactly - and these two quotes have nothing to do with each other:

1) For Avatar 2 to be profitable, it has to hit ~$2 bn. in worldwide box office.

2) He's finished shooting Avatar 2, much of Avatar 3 & some of Avatar 4.

They're separate statements.

It'd be different if Cameron said something like "Avatar 2-4 have to gross a combined total of $5 bn." - He specifically didn't, but rather referenced the break-even cost for only this singular film.

This means a lot to you. I can tell.

1) Comparing to Lord of the Rings is a mistaken example as the three films are based on a wildly popular book series so to be successful there had to be ALL THREE FILMS.

2) Avatar 2 just came out and 3 is filmed and the first act of Avatar 4. Yet Avatar 2 was just released. And there is no need for these sequels like Lord of the Rings. Including the EW interview clarification.

Avatar 2 & 3 Filmed Back-To-Back To Avoid A Stranger Things Problem

Seriously? All over being more 'in the know' than me. Happy Holidays!

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Bosco685

[Artboy99]

On 12/27/2022 at 12:42 PM, kimik said:

Is there any competition coming to the box office in January? If not, this movie will continue to run for a while. 

I guess I will be one of the few who will not see it.  

I don't think you are missing much as in my opinion the story is rather ho-hum.