AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022) 2 2

[Bosco685]

"That's the Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes guy - he's a fraud like the Forbes fella!"

[Bosco685]

 

[Gatsby77]

Or...maybe simply presume James Cameron wasn't exaggerating or lying to GQ when he said the film would need close to make close to $2 bn. theatrically to break even.

[Bosco685]

"If I may, where on the blue doll did James Cameron touch you?"

[Bosco685]

"That's the other Forbes Hollywood reporting hack. His quotes only count when he notes something I agree with!"

[Gatsby77]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:07 AM, Bosco685 said:

"That's the other Forbes Hollywood reporting hack. His quotes only count when he notes something I agree with!"

1. He's not wrong.

The primary point, in case you've lost it among your many many posts, is that $450 million production cost + $250 million P&A for this single film is *far* more likely than a $350 million production cost & $100 million P&A.

It's not the break-even point - it's your intentionally low-balling the cost on your chart (as @Jaydogruleswould say "putting your thumb on the scale") despite multiple credible reports to the contrary.

The "but Avatar 3 is done too -- so the costs should be split" is hogwash - as we will ultimately see two years from now when both films are long finished their runs and total costs (and revenue) have been publicly reported.

Given that time will bear this out, it's just a stupid hill to die on - and posting 1/3 of the posts in this whole thread doesn't change that -- shouting louder and repeating oneself doesn't make someone, you know...correct.

2. Just an FYI, but Scott Mendelson hasn't worked for Forbes for months. 

[Bosco685]

On 12/30/2022 at 8:19 AM, Gatsby77 said:

1. He's not wrong.

The primary point, in case you've lost it among your many many posts, is that $450 million production cost + $250 million P&A for this single film is *far* more likely than a $350 million production cost & $100 million P&A.

It's not the break-even point - it's your intentionally low-balling the cost on your chart (as @Jaydogruleswould say "putting your thumb on the scale") despite multiple credible reports to the contrary.

The "but Avatar 3 is done too -- so the costs should be split" is hogwash - as we will ultimately see two years from now when both films are long finished their runs and total costs (and revenue) have been publicly reported.

Given that time will bear this out, it's just a stupid hill to die on - and posting 1/3 of the posts in this whole thread doesn't change that -- shouting louder and repeating oneself doesn't make someone, you know...correct.

2. Just an FYI, but Scott Mendelson hasn't worked for Forbes for months. 

In case you missed this when Scott Mendelson (The Wrap industry reporter now) was providing as an example even if it was $450M production budget + $250M marketing. Hence the 'Even' word.

The hogwash (your word) is trying to hang on one hyperbolic statement from James Cameron for some crazy reason. Ignoring everything else from credible sources. Including James Cameron noting how he filmed Avatar 2, Avatar 3 and Act One of Avatar 4 back-to-back in a blur of spending.

"hogwash" 

[Bosco685]

On 12/30/2022 at 8:19 AM, Gatsby77 said:

It's not the break-even point - it's your intentionally low-balling the cost on your chart (as @Jaydogruleswould say "putting your thumb on the scale") despite multiple credible reports to the contrary.

Cool attempt to gaslight and detract from an individual so as to make up "facts" on multiple credible sources.

Entertainment Weekly: James Cameron says he shot the Avatar sequels at the same time to avoid the 'Stranger Things effect'

Quote

James Cameron says he filmed Avatar sequel The Way of Water at the same time as the forthcoming third and fourth films to avoid what he called "the Stranger Things effect," coining a new phrase to describe the inevitable growth spurt of child actors on multiyear projects.

THR: Avatar 2 budget between $350M to $400M - not $460M 

Quote

From Disney and 20th Century, The Way of Water cost $350 million-$400 million to produce, making it one of the most expensive pics in modern Hollywood history.

Official industry box office aggregators Box Office Mojo and theNumbers still not listing Avatar 2's production budget:

 

Forbes Hollywood reporter: Avatar 2 doesn't need to make $2B to break even

Quote

While Avatar: The Way of Water doesn’t seem destined to repeat that $2+ billion performance, it doesn’t have to. At this point it’s easily going to cover its production and marketing costs and be the year’s biggest blockbuster hit. Remember, much of the expense was in fact shared between The Way of Water’s production and the simultaneous filming of Avatar 3, which arrives in theaters next Christmas to continue the saga.

Rotten Tomatoes & Fandango official Hollywood reporter: Cameron shot 2.5 films at the same time

The Wrap official Hollywood Reporter on Cameron making hyperbolic claim:

But let's ignore all of those credible sources, and go with the ones that support claims this movie will be a bomb even at over $1 billion dollars worldwide. Only those that go with the highest expenses.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Bosco685

[CGC Mike]

I continue to get reports from this thread.  I have 3 choices, and you guys have 1.

My choices:

1. Lock thread

2.  Ban people from topic

3.  Issue strong warnings to all who are not getting along

Your choice:

1.  Get along

[mr_highgrade]

I might check this movie out over the weekend with family, is it any good? 

[CGC Mike]

I am going to add a suggestion.  Sometimes, it is best to agree to disagree...

[Bosco685]

On 12/30/2022 at 9:24 AM, CGC Mike said:

I am going to add a suggestion.  Sometimes, it is best to agree to disagree...

[Bosco685]

It looks like James Cameron has now announced he was being hyperbolic about that $2B claim.

REDDIT: James Cameron refutes the rumor that Avatar needs 2 billion dollars to "break even"

Now back to talking about the movie itself.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Bosco685

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/30/2022 at 5:19 AM, Gatsby77 said:

1. He's not wrong.

The primary point, in case you've lost it among your many many posts, is that $450 million production cost + $250 million P&A for this single film is *far* more likely than a $350 million production cost & $100 million P&A.

It's not the break-even point - it's your intentionally low-balling the cost on your chart (as @Jaydogruleswould say "putting your thumb on the scale") despite multiple credible reports to the contrary.

The "but Avatar 3 is done too -- so the costs should be split" is hogwash - as we will ultimately see two years from now when both films are long finished their runs and total costs (and revenue) have been publicly reported.

Given that time will bear this out, it's just a stupid hill to die on - and posting 1/3 of the posts in this whole thread doesn't change that -- shouting louder and repeating oneself doesn't make someone, you know...correct.

2. Just an FYI, but Scott Mendelson hasn't worked for Forbes for months. 

Isn't it funny how none of those "Cameron Whisperers" who, evidently, like to think they know more about Cameron's own balance sheet than he does, didn't start publicly calling him "wrong" about his own movie, until after it became clear the movie wouldn't touch 2B? 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:22 AM, Bosco685 said:

It looks like James Cameron has now announced he was being hyperbolic about that $2B claim.

REDDIT: James Cameron refutes the rumor that Avatar needs 2 billion dollars to "break even"

Now back to talking about the movie itself.

"...it needs to be like the 10th highest film.."

So then 1.5B to break even. 

And we are talking about the movie. 

-J.

[Bosco685]

On 12/30/2022 at 11:27 AM, Jaydogrules said:

"...it needs to be like the 10th highest film.."

So then 1.5B to break even. 

And we are talking about the movie. 

-J.

Yes. The movie. Which then Cameron also noted it was filmed back-to-back with Avatar 3 and parts of Avatar 4. But at least it gets us away from the fixation a film needs to hit $2B to break even. That is quite the massive target. Though so is $1.5B.

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Bosco685

[paperheart]

may get to $2B.  trailed Rogue One by 14% after first weekend, now 5%- it's clearly going past that total ($533M).  $550M US and 30/70 split gets it to $1.8B+,  $600M US and 30/70 is $2B.

[Bosco685]

With this Avatar 2 budget assumption discussion, I was playing around with a model based on today's latest box office to determine what an estimated studio revenue goal would be to break even. Also, recognizing with James Cameron's correction that Avatar 2 needs to land around the Top 10 of total box office results. I'll stretch it to Top 12 for this analysis.

Current box office distribution: Ballpark the portion of the individual markets making up the total worldwide box office. So of a total worldwide box office, we can distinguish what is required across all three box office regions.

Budget assumption model: Based on the high, moderate and low estimations for the Production Budget and Print & Ad Budget (assuming both account for all theatrical expenses).

Worldwide box office revenue model: Based on the budget assumptions, we can estimate the studio revenue breakeven point. I had to play with the worldwide box office total to get as close as possible to the budget assumptions.

Final Analysis:

• High Budget: Flawed assumption, as Cameron would have noted Avatar 2 would need to land in the Top 6 in order to achieve $1.7B (around $710M studio revenue to break even).
• Low Budget: Flawed assumption, as Cameron would have noted Avatar 2 is already profitable since it now sits at #23 beating Minions (2015).
• Moderate Budget: More valid assumption, as it places the goal for Avatar 2 closer to the Top 10. So a $400M Production, and $200M for P&A (Marketing).

I'll even update my production budget chart to reflect $400M based on this more informed analysis.

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/30/2022 at 12:44 PM, Bosco685 said:

With this Avatar 2 budget assumption discussion, I was playing around with a model based on today's latest box office to determine what an estimated studio revenue goal would be to break even. Also, recognizing with James Cameron's correction that Avatar 2 needs to land around the Top 10 of total box office results. I'll stretch it to Top 12 for this analysis.

Current box office distribution: Ballpark the portion of the individual markets making up the total worldwide box office. So of a total worldwide box office, we can distinguish what is required across all three box office regions.

Budget assumption model: Based on the high, moderate and low estimations for the Production Budget and Print & Ad Budget (assuming both account for all theatrical expenses).

Worldwide box office revenue model: Based on the budget assumptions, we can estimate the studio revenue breakeven point. I had to play with the worldwide box office total to get as close as possible to the budget assumptions.

Final Analysis:

• High Budget: Flawed assumption, as Cameron would have noted Avatar 2 would need to land in the Top 6 in order to achieve $1.7B (around $710M studio revenue to break even).
• Low Budget: Flawed assumption, as Cameron would have noted Avatar 2 is already profitable since it now sits at #23 beating Minions (2015).
• Moderate Budget: More valid assumption, as it places the goal for Avatar 2 closer to the Top 10. So a $400M Production, and $200M for P&A (Marketing).

I'll even update my production budget chart to reflect $400M based on this more informed analysis.

I think that is perfectly reasonable.  

-J.

[drotto]

Another interesting thing heard about Avatar, it belongs to James Cameron and not directly to Disney.  Disney is the distributor, and does not have sole rights.   This means Disney plus may need to pay Cameron to put it on D+, and it may be availible fir higher profits for VOD and Blu-ray, it is not a given it belongs to Disney, and may have more post theatrical profits, because technically Cemeron can shop it around,  and pursue a more traditional post release stratagy.