So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[Glassman10]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, I guess I must have been an eternal optimist just like you since I also held onto most of my equities just like you, although I did consider selling some of them at the end of January.  I think I was fooled by the fact that the North American markets just kept on setting new records on an almost daily basis throughout this whole Coronavirus fiasco that was taking place in the rest of the world.  These continuing record stock market close definitely didn't make sense since it was bound to affect the health of all companies with travel bans in place, supply lines cut, etc, but I guess I must be a collector at heart.    

Actually, if you are thinking of stocks like Visa or Mastercard, you don't even have to go back as far as 4 weeks, since you would have done well if you had sold only 10 short days ago.  Especially since Visa had climbed to their all-time high range of about $210 - $215 about 10 days ago (i.e. almost 4 weeks AFTER the Coronavirus outbreak was announced) before dropping back into the $180 to $190 range during this past week.  Similarly with Mastercard, which had climbed to their all-time high range of about $340 to $350 about 10 days ago before falling back into the $280 to $290 price range during this past week.  

Sadly for me, I don't own any Mastercard, but being the collector that I am, will continue to hold onto the very few shares of Visa which I did pick up back in the day at around $20 a share spile adjusted and just collect their dividends until the share price goes back up again since i don't need the money right now anyways.    

I have really been given a golden ticket on both stocks. Even having waited until the horse was out of the barn and the barn was burning, I have experienced two stock splits on those things and been left with some 700% gains. Unlike you, I kept about half the Mastercard mainly because of the cap gains I would have to cough up- just as bad as selling an AF15!.  I sold all of the VISA. The IRA sales don't get taxed like that and I can't use any of those funds until next fall when I hit 71.5. Things looked so good  10 days back. 

I still feel dumb but at least I'm not getting lectured about  fuzzy staples and shrinking paper.  My early Journey into mystery is never going to be up for that kind of scrutiny.  No slabs here at all. 

I think the market will continue to fall. You can't see North America, South America or Europe really getting hammered yet but I do believe it's coming. The 1918-19 flu really only strated to rack up the fatalities until the second time it came around the globe. Calling it a hoax won't calm markets. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Glassman10
couldn't help myself

[fishbone]

On 2/26/2020 at 1:57 AM, VintageComics said:

You need to adjust the zoom back a little on your telescope. The sky isn't falling unless you're a corporate boardroom and you're looking for a massive increase every year.

People are starting to lose perspective. NOTHING can sustain massive increases year after year. Just 4 years ago this book went for under $30K and about 6 years ago it wasn't even a $20K book.

If anything, the book is on exactly the rising trajectory it would have been on if we didn't see the sudden increases we saw 3 years ago when a few copies that were improvable set outlier records.

seriously, thank you as always for your level-headed posts .......  I know you've only been posting this same thing dozens of times over the last 2 + years, but it's always refreshing  

[Dark Knight]

Those who have bought during what seemed to be the peak year for AF 15 back during summer of 2017 was it? Yes their sky is falling. Heck I'd be depressed and pissed off if I was one of those buyers during the course of the year.

Who knows when values start to pick up again. I have no clue, but hoping they will at some point. Like I've been saying before when we see AF 15 copies selling for much less than they did a year or so ago, it means most of the keys will follow suit, and it did. There are I'm sure some exceptions but overall it's been down.

 

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

1 hour ago, Dark Knight said:

Those who have bought during what seemed to be the peak year for AF 15 back during summer of 2017 was it? Yes their sky is falling. Heck I'd be depressed and pissed off if I was one of those buyers during the course of the year.

Who knows when values start to pick up again. I have no clue, but hoping they will at some point. Like I've been saying before when we see AF 15 copies selling for much less than they did a year or so ago, it means most of the keys will follow suit, and it did. There are I'm sure some exceptions but overall it's been down.

 

 

I was one of those.  Not depressed about it, since I bought to hold long term and I do believe my 5.0 presents very well for the grade and should therefore hold its value a bit better than some copies.

I don't allow myself to feel "regret" over not being able to time the market, since I've never met anyone else who can.

[Hamlet]

On 2/28/2020 at 10:49 PM, thunsicker said:

The common flu generally infects around 10% of the US population with a 1% mortality rate.  Covid 19 has a 2.3% mortality rate.  While it’s true that if 70% of the population got it and the mortality rate jumped up to 3-4% it would be horrible, neither of those are likely.

EDIT:  That’s not to say that we shouldn’t treat Covid 19 seriously.

The flu has something like a 0.1% mortality rate, not a 1% rate.

[lou_fine]

18 hours ago, Hamlet said:

On 2/28/2020 at 8:49 PM, thunsicker said:

Covid 19 has a 2.3% mortality rate.  

The flu has something like a 0.1% mortality rate, not a 1% rate.

I guess it's all relative though.  

After all, 0.1% of 45 million seasonal flu cases is still going to be a substantially higher number than say 2.3% or slightly higher of say 1,000 Covid 19 cases. 

[NoMan]

poor Spiderman. I feel sorry for him. 

[namisgr]

On 2/28/2020 at 11:49 PM, thunsicker said:

The common flu generally infects around 10% of the US population with a 1% mortality rate.  Covid 19 has a 2.3% mortality rate.  

In the US, according to the Centers for Disease Control the mortality rate from influenza is between 0.1 and 0.15%.

Let's face it, not many of us know of people who died from the flu in the past 70 years.

As to how many North Americans will contract COVID-19?  No one really has any idea now, but even starting in an enormous and densely populated city in China, and before the disease had been identified, there have been fewer than 100,000 reported cases and about 3,000 deaths thus far.  So let's see what transpires.

Edited March 4, 2020 by namisgr

[NoMan]

curious as how Covid-19 is gonna react within the comic convention going/pokemon/magic the gathering playing individuals who have problems with basic hygiene to begin with, like No-Soap Man I saw/smelt at a convention not too long ago. We may lose a lot of collectors, impacting the resales of our books and the hobby as a whole.

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoMan

[comicdonna]

4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

curious as how Covid-19 is gonna react within the comic convention going/pokemon/magic the gathering playing individuals who have problems with basic hygiene to begin with, like No-Soap Man I saw/smelt at a convention not too long ago. We may lose a lot of collectors, impacting the resales of our books and the hobby as a whole.

CGC and a bunch of dealers have already cancelled for Emerald City Comicon.  

[NoMan]

7 minutes ago, comicdonna said:

CGC and a bunch of dealers have already cancelled for Emerald City Comicon.  

I'm not joking. You've got to wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with this Covid-19 thing. Did you happen to see the restrooms at Wondercon two years ago? Who knows what viruses are all over slabs with all them funky hands fondling them. No bigee if No-Soap-Man buys the slab, just seems to me those type don't buy, ask a lot of questions and when they do speak, they don't say anything. I've worked behind the table for a dealer/store owner friend a couple of times. It's hard as hades. That's why I just pay the dealer what he/she/they are asking for considering what they endure and what illness they'll probably catch getting coughed all over while asked dumb questions or telling stories about how their mom threw out their comics. 

 

BYW, is that true about Emerald City Con?

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoMan

[comicdonna]

4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

I'm not joking. You've got to wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with this Covid-19 thing. Did you happen to see the restrooms at Wondercon two years ago? Who knows what viruses are all over slabs with all them funky hands fondling them. No bigee if No-Soap-Man buys the slab, just seems to me those type don't buy, ask a lot of questions and when they do speak, they don't say anything. I've worked behind the table for a dealer/store owner friend a couple of times. It's hard as hades. That's why I just pay the dealer what he's asking for considering what they endure. 

I don't get to cons much these days.  You are right, though.  It is a concern.  

[NoMan]

12 minutes ago, comicdonna said:

I don't get to cons much these days.  You are right, though.  It is a concern.  

dude that's a great plot for movie. Someone wants a comic collector dead so they plant a virus inside of key slab and the key has a fixable flaw with a press so the comic collector cracks opens the slab to press it (not to read the story nor appreciate the art, letter's page, vintage ads) but to increase profits and BAM lets the virus lose!! 

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoMan

[Dark Knight]

I think we will see more and more people buying comics online than thru dealers in person because of the coronavirus. 

[NoMan]

13 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

I think we will see more and more people buying comics online than thru dealers in person because of the coronavirus. 

i think I'm gonna walk by that pokemon/magic the gathering card-table playing business in Little Tokyo when I go to the shabu-shabu restaurant and see everyone laid out dead on the floor like those pictures of Jone's Town.

[Dark Knight]

Well I just hope the news and the CDC can be honest with all of us about the severity of the virus and not withhold anything.  I hope it gets contained and not get worst. Con season coming soon with WonderCon and SDCC during the summer. Would make or break my trips.

[NoMan]

12 minutes ago, Batmanis#1 said:

Now at $795 000

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/amazing-fantasy-15-marvel-1962-cgc-nm-94-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7224-91050.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

I say 1$ million is very much possible.

I'm old enough to know how the world works, however, it still at times hard for me to wrap my head around that kind of money for a comic book. This is not a slight on comics, comic collectors, key comics, collecting comics, AF15, the state of the hobby or anything other than that's a lot of cash. And yes, I know for some people a million dollars is like the change I keep trying to find in the center console of my Volvo.

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoMan

[NoMan]

12 minutes ago, Batmanis#1 said:

Yes for me and you (and many others) but to some it is very little money. Paintings selling for $100 millions of dollars. I know paintings are 1/1 but still.

HA takes me serious and thinks I'm a Mac-Daddy due to a pricey book I bought a while ago. Therefor, they take my bids seriously. Wonder if I should place a punishment bid on that AF15 9.4? Guess that could go bad for me and I wouldn't be able to keep my word. Also couldn't do that to Barry Sandoval and Ed Jasper (sp?) who've been nothing but cool to me, helping me uncover the history of my book.  Oh well..... having a conscience and good manners is boring sometimes.

Edited March 4, 2020 by NoMan

[Dark Knight]

Well, I guessed $800k at the AF 15 thread.  It's practically at that price right now so yea  . I failed to mention that my guess was after online bidding has ended and right before the live bidding 

[peewee22]

29 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

Well, I guessed $800k at the AF 15 thread.  It's practically at that price right now so yea  . I failed to mention that my guess was after online bidding has ended and right before the live bidding 

The book is doing very well. No letdown here. You go girl! Spidey!