Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[Black_Adam]

Lots of big books on the Comiclink exchange this morning. I'm guessing the seller needs funds ASAP to load up on N95 masks and toilet paper.

 

[1Cool]

29 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

I understand what you're saying.

What I am saying is some people in the thread  are saying that comics in general keys and non keys are resistant to the stock market. 

 

We are about to see if that's true or not.

If there ever was a time that comics would see a huge correction is now.  The number of comic readers and pure collectors seems to be at an all time low (based on new comic sales and the lack of run collectors in the market).  The recent (last ten years) surge in key comic prices has brought in a ton of new money guys that really just see comics as a commodity and those guys will have to run if the market collapses.   Add in the fact that a large number of comic guys are at least thinking about retirement you have a perfect storm brewing.  Past economic collapses have seemed to not effect the comic book industry since guys just held their books and enjoyed buying on the cheap.  I see the number of guys who will be buying as Rome burns is way lower then in the past.

[wilbil]

9 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

If there ever was a time that comics would see a huge correction is now.  The number of comic readers and pure collectors seems to be at an all time low (based on new comic sales and the lack of run collectors in the market).  The recent (last ten years) surge in key comic prices has brought in a ton of new money guys that really just see comics as a commodity and those guys will have to run if the market collapses.   Add in the fact that a large number of comic guys are at least thinking about retirement you have a perfect storm brewing.  Past economic collapses have seemed to not effect the comic book industry since guys just held their books and enjoyed buying on the cheap.  I see the number of guys who will be buying as Rome burns is way lower then in the past.

it is important to remember that there is a LOT of investment money on the sidelines that has been pulled from the stock market.

[1Cool]

3 minutes ago, wilbil said:

it is important to remember that there is a LOT of investment money on the sidelines that has been pulled from the stock market.

That is a good point and is the x-factor but I see it as less valid compared to the last time.  Keys have always been expensive but with the sky rocket most have seen over the last 10 years I'd be hard pressed to find any that are fool proof good investments during a bad day.  2008 you had a ton of nice keys that were pretty good deals in the day which I'm sure were tempting places to put cash.  Not so much now a days.

[1Cool]

But E-Bay just started up a whopping 5% e-bucks promotion so they are doing their part to keep every one buying - way to go E-Bay!

[ThothAmon]

It's fairly obvious to me that the dropping stock market will impact negatively the used funny book market that has probably been looking for a reason to sell off anyways after years of record gains.  The one bright spot is that online sales can only be helped by people being homebound.

[Krismusic]

6 minutes ago, RANDOM ACTS said:

I just took a look at e-Bay and even New Mutants #98 cgc 9.8 and Star Wars #1 cgc 9.8 seem to be down in prices.

This might be a good time to buy some keys.

hmmm might need to price check some of my keys that I wanted....

[miraclemet]

Well the Stockmarket was turning south last week and all the comics I was watching on HA last night (all Golden Age) went for what I expected or more (thus I bought nothing). So I still havent seen any canary in the coal mine yet...

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, wilbil said:

it is important to remember that there is a LOT of investment money on the sidelines that has been pulled from the stock market.

It is also important that a lot of this money sitting on the sidelines is smart money that is waiting for the markets to hit a bottom and then see signs of a turnaround before buying back in at much lower prices.  

Especially since unlike other stock market crashes, there were lots of time (actually nearly 4 full weeks) for investors to get out since the whole Coronavirus news came out around January 21st or thereabouts and then the North American markets simply ignored all of the huge waving red flags and went on their merry way setting record highs for another 3 weeks plus while this VIRUS OF FEAR AND PANIC (which is much deadlier than the actual Covid-19 virus itself) was spreading.      

[wilbil]

12 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

there were lots of time (actually nearly 4 full weeks)

there has been a tremendous amount of cash sitting on the sidelines a lot longer than that. a lot longer.

 

13 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

investors to get out

many did. 

 

14 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

record highs for another 3 weeks

wash and repeat and wash and repeat stocks.

[lou_fine]

12 minutes ago, wilbil said:

28 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

there were lots of time (actually nearly 4 full weeks)

there has been a tremendous amount of cash sitting on the sidelines a lot longer than that. a lot longer.

Yes, it seems that some investors were out way too soon as they left right after the bottom of the 2018 Christmas Eve crash and never got back in on time and hence missed the entire huge runup that took place in the markets during 2019.  

[James J Johnson]

3 hours ago, wilbil said:

it is important to remember that there is a LOT of investment money on the sidelines that has been pulled from the stock market.

This. And as an alternative to the stock market are most definitely sinking it into comics (and other collectible areas).

[James J Johnson]

49 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

Well the Stockmarket was turning south last week and all the comics I was watching on HA last night (all Golden Age) went for what I expected or more (thus I bought nothing). So I still havent seen any canary in the coal mine yet...

You won't see the canary sitting idly by. From what little birdies told me, the canary in the comic hobby's gold, silver, and bronze mine is singing "we're in the money". 

[wilbil]

14 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, it seems that some investors were out way too soon as they left right after the bottom of the 2018 Christmas Eve crash and never got back in on time and hence missed the entire huge runup that took place in the markets during 2019.  

yes. that is what happened. you win. I am a pacifist. 

[WolverineX]

3 hours ago, miraclemet said:

Well the Stockmarket was turning south last week and all the comics I was watching on HA last night (all Golden Age) went for what I expected or more (thus I bought nothing). So I still havent seen any canary in the coal mine yet...

ahh.  good to know!

[VintageComics]

7 hours ago, RANDOM ACTS said:

I really don't think it`s the Coronavirus for why the market has slowed. It really is the hollywood movie hype that caused this. Go look at the GPA in 2018 and most keys are down between 10-30 percent. Comics got spiked with the movies and tv shows. Flash speculator of  villians got killed the most. A strong rumor is most cw shows will be cancelled by 2022. 

Actually, it's probably most related to mandatory tax collection and bidders paying less for their comics to compensate for increased taxes. I would peg that as the primary reason.

[WolverineX]

On 3/9/2020 at 2:12 PM, lou_fine said:

It is also important that a lot of this money sitting on the sidelines is smart money that is waiting for the markets to hit a bottom and then see signs of a turnaround before buying back in at much lower prices.  

Especially since unlike other stock market crashes, there were lots of time (actually nearly 4 full weeks) for investors to get out since the whole Coronavirus news came out around January 21st or thereabouts and then the North American markets simply ignored all of the huge waving red flags and went on their merry way setting record highs for another 3 weeks plus while this VIRUS OF FEAR AND PANIC (which is much deadlier than the actual Covid-19 virus itself) was spreading.      

The question is how do  you know what is the bottom?

[James J Johnson]

2 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

The question is how do  you know what is the bottom?

Here's how you know:

 

[alexgross.com]

On 3/9/2020 at 8:25 AM, 1Cool said:

If there ever was a time that comics would see a huge correction is now.  The number of comic readers and pure collectors seems to be at an all time low (based on new comic sales and the lack of run collectors in the market).  The recent (last ten years) surge in key comic prices has brought in a ton of new money guys that really just see comics as a commodity and those guys will have to run if the market collapses.   Add in the fact that a large number of comic guys are at least thinking about retirement you have a perfect storm brewing.  Past economic collapses have seemed to not effect the comic book industry since guys just held their books and enjoyed buying on the cheap.  I see the number of guys who will be buying as Rome burns is way lower then in the past.

absolutely! your comics are already losing value with each passing day. all of you guys who want to dump your SA keys, you'll be lucky to find anyone who'll pay half GPA for them anymore. of course, since i am a generous person, if you have nice key books, i'll pay you a tad over half GPA on them. hurry and sell to me before the crash completely annhilates what little value your silly books have left! 

[WolverineX]

13 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

Here's how you know:

 

ARe we at the Abyss?  Pandamic and Dow Jones officially crossing to the bear market today.