GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[bluechip]

On 4/7/2020 at 6:32 PM, szav said:

 

Further, I'd encourage single payer advocates to take a look at what historically happens when the Fed takes something over...like say student loans.  Government guarantee to pay = no incentive to keep costs down, less innovation, more bloat.

 

What you describe only happened with student loans because the Congress designed it to be corrupted, carving out sweet sweet deals for the middlemen who took taxpayer money at extremely low interest which they were then able to loan to students at highly inflated interest.   And to top it off they rigged the bankrupcty laws so that student loans could never be forgiven -- essentially making it so the swampy middlemen got guaranteed profits with no risk.   

When an attempt was made to fix the middleman problem it was decried as a "government takeover of the student loan industry" even though it was, and remains, government money behind the loans.

That was not a problem "...when the Fed takes something over..." but a problem when the Fed created an unholy alliance between the government and private industry to ensure private profits and subvert the supposed good intentions behind the program.   As economic "ism"s go that made our student loan program a lot less like the "S" word ism and more like the "F" word.  

[fifties]

3 hours ago, bluechip said:

 

That was not a problem "...when the Fed takes something over..." but a problem when the Fed created an unholy alliance between the government and private industry to ensure private profits

Nothing new.  Ike warned about "the military-industrial complex", a union of defense contractors and the armed forces, back in 1961...

[porcupine48]

6 hours ago, Readcomix said:

Do I get a doughnut? 

Donuts only! 

[Tri-Color Brian]

On 4/7/2020 at 9:47 PM, Mmehdy said:

1-we do not have an exact time line to.... REGAIN stable GA/SA pricing....

When has GA/SA pricing been stable in the last 30 years?  Seems to me we have had many fluctuations in price.  Prices rise steeply, plateau, drop a little, plateau again, and then rise again.  It has never seemed stable to me.  A true collector does not panic, is in it for the long haul, and waits for the next upswing or hot genre to take off.  I think the idea of mass liquidation is absurd.  We're mostly collectors...not investors that watch the ups and downs of the market all day long.  Most of us do not have our fortunes tied up in this hobby to the point of financial ruin (unless you are a dealer or speculator).  All my comics are paid for.  I am not in debt because of this hobby, and if some of you are you might want to rethink what your idea of a hobby is.  And, if by some miracle we see a major sell off and prices drop by 50% or more, I think most of us will think it's Christmas and buy as much as we can.  I know I would...

Edited April 9, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

When has GA/SA pricing been stable in the last 30 years?  Seems to me we have had many fluctuations in price.  Prices rise steeply, plateau, drop a little, plateau again, and then rise again.  It has never seemed stable to me.  A true collector does not panic, is in it for the long haul, and waits for the next upswing or hot genre to take off.  I think the idea of mass liquidation is absurd.  We're mostly collectors...not investors that watch the ups and downs of the market all day long.  Most of us do not have our fortunes tied up in this hobby to the point of financial ruin (unless you are a dealer or speculator).  All my comics are paid for.  I am not in debt because of this hobby, and if some of you are you might want to rethink what your idea of a hobby is.  And, if by some miracle we see a major sell off and prices drop by 50% or more, I think most of us will think it's Christmas and buy as much as we can.  I know I would...

 Question: "When has the GA/SA pricing been stable in the last 30 years"   Answer: The last 30 years.   I would say the greatest economic challenge occurred around 1980/1981 with yearly inflation rate 13.5 at its highest. Loans were up to 19% on homes, it was a crazy time, yet GA prices held.Even in more recent crashes GA pricing has held its ground, it might not  gone up  and lost a bit and went sideways for a while but all in all it held. I agree with that. This is a unique time in which we could see price drops of approximately  30%, mirroring the stock market. So far the market hit a 29% bottom and is about 19% currently. When we hit the real bottom, then we will see the extent of the potential damage here to our current GA pricing mode. Entire industries have been shut down on an unprecedented level with no return in sight. That is the difference between this economic collapse and previous ones, we cannot get recovery from the natural laws of economics as that is not in control, it is the virus that is currently in control . A vaccine will knock it out, and because the cause of this economic collapse is artificially created, the recover should be considerably faster once the problem goes away. We still however has some fundamental debt issues such as US government, Europe, Pensions etc and this added pressure could indicate some long term pain and inflation adding to that problem. 

 Statement " A true collector does not panic, is in it for the long haul, and waits for the next upswing..." I agree that could be you, me and a number of older board members here, we, however, are clearly not the majority of GA/SA comic book collectors and speculators who exist today in 2020. That majority will control the  current market and price levels.

Statement: "Most of us do not have our fortunes tied up in the hobby to the point of financial ruin unless you are a speculator/dealer"  A lot do, there are also, dealers who are collectors such as Bedrock and nobody is immune to price market conditions and I would agree if you have your comics paid for you would be less likely to sell or panic. However with this current GA/SA price rise or bubble as some have put it, the prices are so high, even the most true comic book collector becomes somewhat of an investor...not necessary a speculator...especially at the current higher plateau price level.

Statement:" I think the idea of mass liquidation is absurd" I do too, I agree 100%. That is why I created this thread and have put so much of my energy in this. I want a stable GA/SA market, I do not want a "Flash crash"  although would probably price recover will be in a record time. I agree 100% that we were currently  on a price plateau and subject to "bad timing". Other than Bill Gates, nobody could have predicted this time of economic and social hit and coming this time when the market is a bit fragile is not great period ever for something like this.  I do not want my collection, your collection and anyone here's collection to decrease in value disproportionately to REALITY. We are here to deal with it, talk about it, and give our opinions such that we will not be hit with any surprises which tend to create panic, flash crashes, and collection dumping. We all in this together.

"I am not in debt because of this hobby..and if some of you are you might want to rethink what your idea of a hobby is" In the early 1970's there was no such think as time payments on a national level such as what HA or CC offer today. Of course, Cap #3 was 100 bucks and a price of new car was around 1800...those were the days my friends.. Speculators have hit all the top GA/SA keys and some collectors have put there all into it, some have gotten loans, some pay on time, the true collectors have to compete with those widget buyers. they are equal citizens however in our collecting community, in fact they are stuck their neck out and taken a chance on a GA/SA even though they could not afford to pay cash in full at the time of purchase. This apples especially to GA/SA keys or pedigrees.  They do not need to rethink whether or not they are a true comic collector, but they do need to think in terms of financial responsibility. That is probably a better way to put it.

"If we see a price drop of 50%, most of us will think its Christmas" I agree with that 100%, I just put in about 35 low ball bids on GA on Ha.com today.

Thank you for a great post, it got me thinking. I believe we are on the same path here.

I have never stated a number as far as a market correction and would not agree that the market will go down 50% on anything like that. It might on few books that slip thru the cracks. The stock market might give us a idea where the bottom will hit..but that recovers so quickly as supposedly it is priced in the future.We are fellow GA/SA comic book collectors  are here  for the long run  who will calmly pick up material as it become available and make our collectors that  much better during this unique time.  But the key here, just as in the stock market, is timing...when will the bottom hit, what will be the bottom price wise, and how long will it take to recover to  get back to where we came from price wise...with all of our great experience, some us 60 years plus as collectors who have seen it "all", we will together be the first ones to discover those answers. We have a amazing advantage here being members of this community acting together, sharing opinions to get to the common goal to get back normal.

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Ryan.]

I can't imagine having 5, 6 or even 7 figures sunk into a collection and having no regard for the value of that collection. 

[porcupine48]

5 hours ago, Ryan. said:

I can't imagine having 5, 6 or even 7 figures sunk into a collection and having no regard for the value of that collection. 

If I think of the value of my books-that I mostly spent very little on between 10-25 years ago-I enjoy them less to be honest.Makes the collection seem burdensome 

[Tri-Color Brian]

5 hours ago, Ryan. said:

I can't imagine having 5, 6 or even 7 figures sunk into a collection and having no regard for the value of that collection. 

I'm not saying we have NO regard for the value of our collections.  Almost all collectors like to see the values go up, but those of us that have been at this for 50+ years have seen ups and downs before.  I think most of us have our collections paid for, and hopefully we don't overspend.  We should all have some kind of emergency savings to ride out storms like this.  That's just Economic Survival 101.  The only people that will really get panicky are those who have unrealistic ideas of their comic collection values, and don't have the patience to wait for the next upswing. 

[Tri-Color Brian]

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Statement " A true collector does not panic, is in it for the long haul, and waits for the next upswing..." I agree that could be you, me and a number of older board members here, we, however, are clearly not the majority of GA/SA comic book collectors and speculators who exist today in 2020. That majority will control the  current market and price levels.

I would like to know how you can be sure of that statement.  We don't even know how many collectors are out there.  Is there some secret statistic that tells us the hobby is driven by a majority of investors and speculators?  I'm not talking about the people that buy 6 and 7 figure books, I'm talking about all those who buy the $10 to $25,000 books. 

[Ryan.]

12 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I'm not saying we have NO regard for the value of our collections.  Almost all collectors like to see the values go up, but those of us that have been at this for 50+ years have seen ups and downs before.  I think most of us have our collections paid for, and hopefully we don't overspend.  We should all have some kind of emergency savings to ride out storms like this.  That's just Economic Survival 101.  The only people that will really get panicky are those who have unrealistic ideas of their comic collection values, and don't have the patience to wait for the next upswing. 

Thanks. That makes sense. 

[Ryan.]

21 minutes ago, porcupine48 said:

If I think of the value of my books-that I mostly spent very little on between 10-25 years ago-I enjoy them less to be honest.Makes the collection seem burdensome 

I rebagged all of my CGC books yesterday. (yes, I am aware of the absurdity of that sentence but quarantines make for strange behaviors). I have them in one of those hard plastic lockable BCW bins, on the floor next to my staircase, waiting for me to take them upstairs. I forgot the bin was there and next thing I know my three year old is stepping up on it and using it to launch himself to the floor. I almost had a heart attack. 

[Tri-Color Brian]

7 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

They do not need to rethink whether or not they are a true comic collector, but they do need to think in terms of financial responsibility. That is probably a better way to put it.

 

I agree.  I was taught early on that you should strive to be debt free.  With the exception of a house or car, your purchases should be only for what you can pay for in full.  Most people are not willing to follow that rule.  They like the buy now, pay later idea, but that's where they get into serious trouble in times like this.

[porcupine48]

Just now, Ryan. said:

I rebagged all of my CGC books yesterday. (yes, I am aware of the absurdity of that sentence but quarantines make for strange behaviors). I have them in one of those hard plastic lockable BCW bins, on the floor next to my staircase, waiting for me to take them upstairs. I forgot the bin was there and next thing I know my three year old is stepping up on it and using it to launch himself to the floor. I almost had a heart attack. 

If you wanna make four,stay on the floor! 

[porcupine48]

@Ryan. Last time my eight year old nephew visited-I have a box of readers for the kids in the comic den-he came running out with my AF 15 slab waving it around,trying to pry it loose because 'this one looks like it's okay to read,it already has crumples and it's the first old school Spider-Man' .He also tries to 'help uncle Jimmers' by opening 1970's Hot Wheel blister packs.Well,he did,once .Paternal instincts disappeared for a while.

[jimbo_7071]

7 minutes ago, porcupine48 said:

@Ryan. Last time my eight year old nephew visited-I have a box of readers for the kids in the comic den-he came running out with my AF 15 slab waving it around,trying to pry it loose because 'this one looks like it's okay to read,it already has crumples and it's the first old school Spider-Man' .He also tries to 'help uncle Jimmers' by opening 1970's Hot Wheel blister packs.Well,he did,once .Paternal instincts disappeared for a while.

BBM

I hope you don't mean once upon a time, when he was still among the living!

[Ryan.]

8 minutes ago, porcupine48 said:

@Ryan. Last time my eight year old nephew visited-I have a box of readers for the kids in the comic den-he came running out with my AF 15 slab waving it around,trying to pry it loose because 'this one looks like it's okay to read,it already has crumples and it's the first old school Spider-Man' .He also tries to 'help uncle Jimmers' by opening 1970's Hot Wheel blister packs.Well,he did,once .Paternal instincts disappeared for a while.

With kids around I had no choice but to started putting my slabs in these:

 

[Mmehdy]

16 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I would like to know how you can be sure of that statement.  We don't even know how many collectors are out there.  Is there some secret statistic that tells us the hobby is driven by a majority of investors and speculators?  I'm not talking about the people that buy 6 and 7 figure books, I'm talking about all those who buy the $10 to $25,000 books. 

Of course that statement is goes to WHO you define as a True comic book collector. I just believe,like you and me, the the pure and true comic book collector is a dinosaur. Who ever heard of GPA and CGC in the good old days. Don't get me wrong we need them and they do very good things to protect our GA/SA comic book world, but today you need a degree in fiance as well as a big bank account in order to amass a CGC unrestored  GA comic book collection. In 1970's we knew "who was who"...collector or dealer..Today with so many lines blurred, who can really judge what a comic book collector is, let alone a true lifer.

 I do not think Brian, that we have as much control over  GA/SA comic book market, than  during the early 70's.  Our GA/SA world is more complex than ever, and more influenced by outside forces such as Marvel/DC movies,world economies,  grading  services and giant auction houses. There is no magic number here Brian, and that was my point.

It is not that we do not count in our world, but our voice is much smaller in 2020 because our GA/SA comic book world is a lot bigger than we could ever have imagined 30 years ago

Your question if fair game and I thank you for reading my reply.

[Tri-Color Brian]

2 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Of course that statement is goes to WHO you define as a True comic book collector. I just believe,like you and me, the the pure and true comic book collector is a dinosaur. Who ever heard of GPA and CGC in the good old days. Don't get me wrong we need them and they do very good things to protect our GA/SA comic book world, but today you need a degree in fiance as well as a big bank account in order to amass a CGC unrestored  GA comic book collection. In 1970's we knew "who was who"...collector or dealer..Today with so many lines blurred, who can really judge what a comic book collector is, let alone a true lifer.

 I do not think Brian, that we have as much control over  GA/SA comic book market, than  during the early 70's.  Our GA/SA world is more complex than ever, and more influenced by outside forces such as Marvel/DC movies,world economies,  grading  services and giant auction houses. There is no magic number here Brian, and that was my point.

It is not that we do not count in our world, but our voice is much smaller in 2020 because our GA/SA comic book world is a lot bigger than we could ever have imagined 30 years ago

Your question if fair game and I thank you for reading my reply.

I always read your replies...mostly to see how many words you will misspell or use incorrectly, but also to see your POV...    I'm going to argue one point here, and that is your statement about the 70s.  I don't think we really knew who was who at all.  I didn't know you, you didn't know me...I didn't know robotman, and he didn't know me.  In fact, there were many of us collectors who didn't know anyone except our close friends.  We didn't go to comic shows.  We just bought from each other, new comics at the store, or the occasional visit to a comic shop in L.A.  I didn't go to my first convention until '75, and then again in '79.  Between '79 and '94 I didn't go to any shows.  Nobody knew what I collected or who I was.  Nobody knows now unless they've looked at my flickr albums in the last month or so.    So, my long winded point is, we have no idea how many collectors are out there that are not among the "mover and shaker" club.

[Mmehdy]

31 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I agree.  I was taught early on that you should strive to be debt free.  With the exception of a house or car, your purchases should be only for what you can pay for in full.  Most people are not willing to follow that rule.  They like the buy now, pay later idea, but that's where they get into serious trouble in times like this.

Thank you for your support on that statement. But I would bet that your grandparents as well mine lived thru the ten year depression 1929-1939. The stories they told me, the expression on their faces and the lessons learned were still burned in their memory 25 years later. We have an advantage over the "young" folks who have no idea what it was like. Until now. Debt free today is akin to being unamerican. Our system is geared towards buy now and pay later...similar to the way the US is taking on debt. I know for you and me, it is very important to only buy what you can afford but please see my comments about being a dinosaur...LOL

[Tri-Color Brian]

6 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Thank you for your support on that statement. But I would bet that your grandparents as well mine lived thru the ten year depression 1929-1939. The stories they told me, the expression on their faces and the lessons learned were still burned in their memory 25 years later. We have an advantage over the "young" folks who have no idea what it was like. Until now. Debt free today is akin to being unamerican. Our system is geared towards buy now and pay later...similar to the way the US is taking on debt. I know for you and me, it is very important to only buy what you can afford but please see my comments about being a dinosaur...LOL

Maybe some people will learn from this experience to be more debt free in the future.  This might be "our" great depression...and I know one thing, nobody is going to wait until they run out of toilet paper to buy new rolls from now on...and they might even keep a little 6 month stockpile of non-perishable food on hand too. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian