GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[bronze johnny]

10 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

 

JOHN:

The wrong assumption you making looking back at the 1918 Pandemic or others is that the economy was just that ...1918. Economy, and  for that matter any historical  economy. We live in an entirely different world today in 2020. The US government is is record breaking debt as well as Europe and nations. Our reliance on other nations, for example China for cheaper medicine was non-existent in 1918. There are many factors too many to list here which point to this being a unique situation in time for humanity.

 Historical data is important, but  only relevant  under those exact same circumstances and conditions if you want to project those exact results as the probable outcome so be it. We can use it as a reference point but not gospel. Historical data does not necessary translate into 2020 reality.

I am not speculating, but merely stating the facts which present themselves today, April 5, 2020. We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression,.The whole world does not know it yet, but the forward thinkers do. I do not think, if you read my earlier posts, that this will last in terms of historical data-10 years for the last depression in USA that  nor will be the same, I am always siding on the positive side of things. Max 3 years..Min 1 is my best guess here. If we face "reality" and tackle as such, then we have  much less fear to deal..it is the unknown  that is greatest fear.. That is my point here. Discuss it and rather  keep it in. One of my major concerns is the underwater pension plans of the state and local governments especially the state of Illinois whose projections of fund growth to pay underfunded pensions plans have just hit a block wall.  Calpiers took a 69 billion dollar hit in value and the stock market still has a way to go. While historically there might be some incidents of the past that are very similar, there is nothing like this combination of  2020 issues together. The solution I see if the federal government taking over those  pension plans and printing money. Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper. You and me probably thru inflation down the . as it is a cheaper payback.. Again, a lot of unique 2020 circumstances all combining at once. This financial crisis would have probably happened anyway some where down the line, this just sped it up and put us in a very weak position to deal with it today.  There are major fundamental flaws of the economy of 2020 and they are going be exposed. You cannot use the historical  past to say I have bad attitude about this, If we use  past history  depressions, look at the Germany and US in the 1930's.it took a war to get out.  Today,Nobody is gonna be able to afford to go war this time.

 

 I appreciate your opinion, I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong, but the probable outcome here is something in between. I ask you to taken into consideration the  complete current economic system as it exists today and  not  just in a  historical bubble  of past pandemics  recoveries. This recession/depression  is something much bigger and fundamental system wise than this virus. We just need some luck here to find this vaccine....and get on the right, but there are some big changes coming and they will be for the better for ALL.

No, I'm not making assumptuons.

Yes, there are a number of differences between today and 1918 and we can spend all day pointing them out. You’re failing to see the most significant distinction between today and 1918. The vast power of the Federal Government over economic policy dwarfs the role it had in 1918. There were no government programs like Social Security, Medicare, FDIC and Unemployment Insurance in 1918.  I'm not going to get into the whole history of the growing role government has in the American Economy since the New Deal (especially what FDR's "Second New Deal" to combat and take the country out of the depressed economy (World War ll sped things up). The advantage America has today that it didn't in 1918 has everything to do with the subsequent economic history I've outlined. The Federal Government will use the necessary power it has to ensure the economic consequences of this pandemic are short term. This will of course require (I'm going to keep this part simple because it's more complex and requires more time and energy for me to explain) more than the power of the Federal Reserve to ensure that currency is available for investment. An infrastructure bill that includes a major public works program is required as will a necessary bailout of state and local governments. That being said, the end result will be tax increases after the presidential election in November 2020 no matter what party wins. The only issue will be who pays and how much. 

Again, try not to fall for the "economic crisis was going to happen anyway but the pandemic only brought it on quicker" belief. Such a notion is grounded in pure conjecture and fails to consider the history of pandemics throughout world history (not just America although 1918 is the most recent example) going back to the dawn of Western Civilization.

The most significant concern to consider right now is whether America will learn from this since it's highly unlikely in this age of rising globalization COVID-19 will be a once in a century pandemic. America will only be afforded so many "sick days" from the work that's required to lead the world.  

Edited April 6, 2020 by bronze johnny

[fifties]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression

 

 Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper.

The sky is not gonna fall, and although stats show a depression level unemployment rate at the moment, it will immediately fall once the stay at home directives are lifted, and restaurants, bars, hotels, motels, amusement parks, stadiums, government buildings, non-essential businesses, etc., can re-open.  Big difference as compared with past economic declines that took years to recover.  Yes, there will be some businesses that will remain shuttered, but they will be in the minority.

And BTW, U.S. currency is not printed on paper...

[lou_fine]

On 4/4/2020 at 10:14 PM, Mmehdy said:

On 4/4/2020 at 9:18 PM, Chicago Boy said:

IMO Market was going soft prior to the crisis. Prices were coming back down to earth in my  outside of the big 2 and maybe marvel comics 1 making a bit of a resurgence. Ultra high grade keys would also fall into that category 

I would second that with saying more of a price pause..Cap#1 and #3 and others were a pretty good indicator the market was running out of gas, I still feel however there was some play left in that  Cap 1.,3 but things can only go in one direction for so long.

Mitch;

Although there does seem to be a bit of a drop off in prices for Cap 1, I definitely haven't seen this same drop off for Cap 3 as far as I can tell.  

For example, if I go and take a quick look at the public auction sales results going back to 2018 for Cap 3, it actually looks more like a slight uptrend to me:  

1)  Cap 3 in CGC 7.5 Universal grade sold on CC in June of 2018 for $80,000 or for 5.2X condition guide;

2)  Cap 3 in CGC 6.0 Restored Slight (P) grade sold at HA in November of 2018 for $21,600 or for 3.27X Unrestored condition guide;

3)  Cap 3 in CGC 5.5 Restored Slight (B-1) grade sold at HA in November of 2019 for $24,000 or for 3.36X Unrestored condition guide;

4)  Cap 3 in CGC 4.0 Restored Slight (C-1) grade sold at HA in early March of 2020 for $18,000 or for 3.46X Unrestored condition guide; and

5)  Cap 3 in CGC 1.0 Restored grade (Signature with Married Centerfold) sold at CL in late March for $7,105 or for 5.47X Unrerstored condition guide.

Based upon these realized public auction prices for Cap 3 relative to condition guide, it looks to me like Cap 3 is still heading in one direction and running with a pretty full tank of gas, as opposed to running out of gas.  Especially considering that most of these multiples to condition guide sales results were acheived on Restored copies, as opposed to Universal unrestored copies.     

Edited April 6, 2020 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

Mitch may be a bit hyperbolic hitting the Depression button, but there is some justification for global uncertainty being in the mix.  Looking at GA comics it’s difficult determining outliers from trends right now.  There are just too many variables. Cap 3 has to be assessed from several perspectives: 1) census numbers, taking into account possible crack and press resubs, 2) frequency of copies appearing on the market in auctions and 3) growth in acceptance and rising value of restored books.  With those three factors being considered value in the current market can be gauged along with any volatility produced by pandemic concerns.

In general, economic stability is being maintained through promises of stimulus money aimed at bolstering confidence in our institutions while shoring up the personal damage long enough for businesses to recover. As already alluded to, those promises come with conditions, red tape and an end user agreement that no one will be happy with when they read the fine print. There’s always a price tag that has to be paid. The real question is who’ll end up holding the check and how much will the final check be for bailing out businesses.

The best carefully worded parable I can apply to these uncertain times is this: imagine being shanghaied and indentured for years on a sailing ship in troubled seas, ...a ship with no compass, a broken rudder moving every which way and a confused Captain with no clue how to trim the sails.  Now we’re in the path of a hurricane.  It’s just an analogy, but this is where we find ourselves today.  Personally, I don’t see the sky falling, but it would be foolhardy to ignore storm clouds on the horizon and potential for instability.  The savvy collector has to take proper steps to prepare for bad weather while still keeping faith that some clouds do have silver ...or gold... linings.

[jimbo_7071]

It's difficult to see this pandemic ending without significant effects on the economy, including tax increases and inflation. To make matters worse, medical researchers are learning that about one-fifth of the people who get the coronavirus and recover sustain heart damage.

Those people will have increased medical costs for decades (not to mention shorter life expectancies).

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

12 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

 a confused Captain with no clue how to trim the sails.

Truer words were never spoken

[ThothAmon]

On 4/5/2020 at 2:54 AM, szav said:

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies

Doubtful this could happen for the same reason employees aren’t allowed to sue for other injuries suffered at work. Workers Compensation. 

[tabcom]

13 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

The savvy collector has to take proper steps to prepare for bad weather while still keeping faith that some clouds do have silver ...or gold... linings.

I’ll leave the sky gazing to the Pollyannas. I prefer the stackable kind of silver or gold.

[Golden Memories]

 

 So I thought I would some information here

     It was previously Mentioned that 20% of covid patients develop heart issues

     I have seen the articles and none of them mention  chloroquine

    This supposed "wonder Drug"  has hideous  side effects , including 

    Liver damage, Brain Damage, Hallucinations, and others including inducing arrythmia 

https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368

   At my wifes hospital, anyone who takes this is REQUIRED to have a daily ekg , so the side effects are well known. 

   Also anyone who think a vaccine (still 2 years away) will close this out is mistaken for a number of reasons, first there at least

   9 known strains, second.  Also Scientists need to understand the pathogen (the same scientists who told us for months not to wear masks outside) in addition,  There have been numerous reports of persons supposedly cured becoming re-infected meaning

  this a very strong virus and vaccines will have minimal impact .

     What all this means is that we we will be dealing with this for a long time. 

  So how does this affect to comic market ?

       1) Some of my best customers were comic shop owners, buying for their customers , with shops closed all over the country and a recovery after the lockdown ends likely being slow, there goes a large portion of my market 

       2) Again as I sell golden age a large percentage of my customers are 50+ and many are unlikely  to feel safe enough to venture into a convention hall for quite some time , on other threads I see people saying they will avoid conventions , even some  insulting promoters for the ides of even having a show. 

      3) Large attendance conventions are unlikely for a while, my guess is August at best. 

      4) Even assuming the country opens on May 1, it will be slowly and in stages with a scared citizenry and thousands of small and medium businesses gone forever 

 

 I do not see "panic Selling"  unless this drags INTO 2021. But a downturn to some degree is inevitable 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Golden Memories

[tabcom]

2 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

1. Covid-19 will have long term physical consequences for some who recover from the pandemic.  

2. The scientific/medical community doesn’t have enough data on immunity after recovery to determine reinfection rate because the virus hasn’t been around long enough to conduct a valid statistical analysis.

An argument could be made that #2 negates #1

the scientific/medical community doesn’t have enough data on  long term physical consequences . . . because the virus hasn’t been around long enough to conduct a valid statistical analysis.

[tabcom]

2 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

3. There is no “wonder drug” ...just a couple of Hail Mary pharmaceuticals (chloroquine and hydro chloroquine) that certain parties are investing heavily in and promoting.

The intel I’ve read is less a Hail Mary, but more a chip shot.

[lou_fine]

7 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

As for the “what have you got to lose?” argument, the best response is “your life!”

If I were you, I would be very careful with what you say on these boards here because you might be upsetting some boardies' feelings if they know who you might be referring to with some of your comments.  

If so, being the cry babies they are, they'll go running and crying to big Mommy (nothing personal here as I really do love Mommy   ) who's working full-time from home.  Sadly, Mommy's going to have to apply the big boot to you in order to appease the cry babies..............so you should definitely be careful with saying either positive things or negative things one way or the other when it comes to this whole Coronavirus topic because it's definitely seen as burning red hot political dynamite by some members on the boards here.    

Edited April 8, 2020 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

29 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

If I were you, I would be very careful with what you say on these boards here because you might be upsetting some boardies' feelings if they know who you might be referring to with some of your comments.  

If so, being the cry babies they are, they'll go running and crying to big Mommy (nothing personal here as I really do love Mommy   ) who's working full-time from home.  Sadly, Mommy's going to have to apply the big boot to you in order to appease the cry babies..............so you should definitely be careful with saying either positive things or negative things one way or the other when it comes to this whole Coronavirus topic because it's definitely seen as burning red hot political dynamite by some members on the boards here.    

This thread is not political...it deals with reality. It would be safe to say, that  true GA/SA comic book collectors have vast experience not only in  comic book collecting but life in general. Everybody's best guess or opinion is welcome.

 I believe that the Virus cure and recovery  issues are tied to  FUTURE GA/SA comic book values. Any opinion, any speculation goes as far as I am concerned if it leads  to where we are headed in the future..bright or dark is fair game.. I think every board member will agree on two things 1-we do not have an exact time line for a cure of this virus nor a actual time line when we will be at full recovery of the economic and REGAIN stable GA/SA pricing. 2-We all want it sooner, than later. Bringing  these issues out will give everyone on this board a head up as to where we might be going in the future, and making life choices as to keeping your GA/SA comic book collection, retainment of future value of your collection, and what will our GA/SA comic book collecting  community look like and be after we get thru this crisis( and we will win). I tend to agree with Tabcom that it will be a chip shot beating this, its a question of time..which in todays, instant news society it will seem like forever. Our decision to Buy, Sell or Trade is at stake here. We will not act in a panic, but carefully.

 What makes me mad the most, when it comes to our GA/SA comic book collecting community is that this crisis will force some GA/SA comic book collectors not to have to sell by choice but by necessity.  This virus will not care how many years it took you to collect you GA/SA comic books., how much emotional  joy your collection has brought you., and that feeling of loss when part or all of your collection is gone. I understand much larger issues are at play here. But a loss is a loss..especially for our fellow collectors, some of whom may never return.

I am hopping that some of this downtime will increase activity on HA.com for example, collectors whom have time on their hands might discover other ways, such as E-Bay to find their GA/SA in different ways, and that might increase buying activity way after this crisis is over. Especially on platforms that do not rely upon in person sales. Our of boredom we could see big interest on HA's upcoming Signature auction. I am hoping that GA/SA collectors who have not read any great material lately do so. Our ability to rediscover, what is really great and important is NOW..and that excuse that we were too busy and too tired are out the door. Some of your GA/SA collectors have been in the "math" collecting business too long and just looking at the numbers...rediscover why you are here in the first place..GA/SA is great period. Writing, Illustrations, and truth, justice ,and the American way is our bloodline.

 Take advantage of this period of time, reread the books that you can or order some of the outstanding GA/SA reprint volumes and get back to GA/SA reality.

 

[lou_fine]

33 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

2-We all want it sooner, than later.

On this, I think we can most definitely all agree on this 110%.  

[waaaghboss]

5 hours ago, szav said:

Are you thinking were going to look at such single payer system Covid 19 successes as Italy, Portugal, and Spain and all clamor for single payer? 

Our healthcare system has problems for sure but its still the best in the world.  Pretty sure no other country has the number of medical tourists that the USA does, there's a reason for that.  Personally I'd rather see all health insurance abolished except catastrophic coverage that kicks in after a certain dollar amount (want to make sure no one is financially ruined by bad luck).  Make everything cash pay up to that point, so that people have some incentive to take care of themselves and not to overutilize our limited heath care resources. That has about as much chance as becoming reality as single payer does though.

Further, I'd encourage single payer advocates to take a look at what historically happens when the Fed takes something over...like say student loans.  Government guarantee to pay = no incentive to keep costs down, less innovation, more bloat.

Since this is actually my area of expertise I'll say that the truth on Hydroxychloroquine is probably somewhere in the middle.  It very likely helps a certain subset of people, people who are dying as a result of their immune system overresponse to the virus.  Hydroxychloroquine's method of action in helping with lupus and RA are not well understood, and for these conditions different people have a very wide range of reactions to even small doses.  I think when they do finally get to compile a lot of data they'll find that it has a small but statistically significant beneficial effect for a very small number of people who meet a very specific set of criteria.  It's not going to help everyone or even the majority of people, but it will help some people.  Hopefully we'll be able to figure out soon out which people can actually benefit from it, because it is a very nasty drug that can cause a lot of problems (though the worst problems it causes usually don't manifest until someone has been taking it for a long period of time).

Well, with your student loan comparison, the loan is given to the student, who then is at the mercy of the bloated higher ed industry.  With single payer, doesn't the government itself negotiate the rate it pays?  Does the government pay whatever health care providers ask for with regard to Medicare and Medicaid?

[Cat-Man_America]

7 hours ago, tabcom said:

An argument could be made that #2 negates #1

the scientific/medical community doesn’t have enough data on  long term physical consequences . . . because the virus hasn’t been around long enough to conduct a valid statistical analysis.

Not really, that conflates two different issues.  The physical consequences are based on reports that 20% of recovered Covid-19 patients may have heart damage... 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-19-patients-puzzles-doctors/

Reinfection by the virus is where there isn't enough scientific data available to conduct valid statistical analysis.  

4 hours ago, szav said:

Are you thinking were going to look at such single payer system Covid 19 successes as Italy, Portugal, and Spain and all clamor for single payer? 

Our healthcare system has problems for sure but its still the best in the world.  Pretty sure no other country has the number of medical tourists that the USA does, there's a reason for that.  Personally I'd rather see all health insurance abolished except catastrophic coverage that kicks in after a certain dollar amount (want to make sure no one is financially ruined by bad luck).  Make everything cash pay up to that point, so that people have some incentive to take care of themselves and not to overutilize our limited heath care resources. That has about as much chance as becoming reality as single payer does though.

Further, I'd encourage single payer advocates to take a look at what historically happens when the Fed takes something over...like say student loans.  Government guarantee to pay = no incentive to keep costs down, less innovation, more bloat.

Since this is actually my area of expertise I'll say that the truth on Hydroxychloroquine is probably somewhere in the middle.  It very likely helps a certain subset of people, people who are dying as a result of their immune system overresponse to the virus.  Hydroxychloroquine's method of action in helping with lupus and RA are not well understood, and for these conditions different people have a very wide range of reactions to even small doses.  I think when they do finally get to compile a lot of data they'll find that it has a small but statistically significant beneficial effect for a very small number of people who meet a very specific set of criteria.  It's not going to help everyone or even the majority of people, but it will help some people.  Hopefully we'll be able to figure out soon out which people can actually benefit from it, because it is a very nasty drug that can cause a lot of problems (though the worst problems it causes usually don't manifest until someone has been taking it for a long period of time).

I'm not advocating or dismissing, just reading the tea leaves.  It depends on whether most folks come out of this believing the health care system as it exists today is working.  Not casting blame, just acknowledging the reality.  

Eventually it becomes a perception issue.  Did someone drop the ball, or not?  It's human nature to assess fault in retrospect, and the chips will fall where they may.  

An iceberg, misfortune and poor engineering sunk the Titanic, but who did the public consider culpable? (rhetorical question)

[lou_fine]

10 hours ago, szav said:

Our healthcare system has problems for sure but its still the best in the world.  Pretty sure no other country has the number of medical tourists that the USA does, there's a reason for that. 

Not sure if your point of view is correct here since I have yet to heard of any Canadian that would want to have the American user pay health care system over the government funded Canadian health care system.  

On a slightly different side issue, why are there caravans of American drug tourists that come all the way up to Canada to clean all of the insulin and other cheap drugs out of our pharmacies?    

[ArkhamCastle]

The drugs being touted as "why Not" seem to be working in many cases [See Representative from Michigan}.  As to side effects that seems to be a bit foolish in the sense that almost all drugs have side affects.  Just listen to any drug commercial on TV or read the paperwork included with the RX.  In many cases they seem worse than the illness.  Yes, I our drug companies have many faults but just watch where the cures come from.  Not interested in single payer system.  " You can keep your doctor, hospital and insurance company" Yea Right!

[tabcom]

A voice from the distant past has a message for all today.

‘This is the CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER… it is my responsibility to enforce all the laws that haven’t been passed yet. It is also my responsibility to alert each and every one of you to the potential consequences of various ordinary everyday activities you might be performing which could eventually lead to The Death Penalty….

.. Our studies have shown that this horrible force is so dangerous to society at large that laws are being drawn up at this very moment to stop it forever! Cruel and inhuman punishments are being carefully described in tiny paragraphs so they won’t conflict with the Constitution … which, itself, is being modified in order to accommodate THE FUTURE.’

 

[Readcomix]

2 hours ago, tabcom said:

A voice from the distant past has a message for all today.

‘This is the CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER… it is my responsibility to enforce all the laws that haven’t been passed yet. It is also my responsibility to alert each and every one of you to the potential consequences of various ordinary everyday activities you might be performing which could eventually lead to The Death Penalty….

.. Our studies have shown that this horrible force is so dangerous to society at large that laws are being drawn up at this very moment to stop it forever! Cruel and inhuman punishments are being carefully described in tiny paragraphs so they won’t conflict with the Constitution … which, itself, is being modified in order to accommodate THE FUTURE.’

 

Do I get a doughnut?