GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[bluechip]

41 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

We got the "work from home" email three weeks ago.  After working from home the CEO said everyone needed to be back in the office.  Week two we worked out a plan for people to return to the office to work.  We started executing the plan this week.  Lots of super pissed people, nervous people, etc.  but the message was pretty clear "your job is contingent on you coming in the office".  We were deemed "essential" because we design products for infrastructure communications (wired and wireless).  The company is providing hand sanitizer, temperature monitoring, etc but that doesn't guarantee people won't get sick. 

The industries getting "essential" ratings sometimes are justified and sometimes just because the CEOs have political pull.   

I would imagine there are some instances in which some folks in management simply miss the in-office experience or feel like they've lost control somewhat.   Some people will get sick who needn't have gotten sick and some lawsuits may result.   Let's see how long it is before the best connected Job Creators get Congress to pass laws making them immune from those suits (if laws like that aren't already in the previous stimulus bill, they will follow soon enough)     

[batman_fan]

3 minutes ago, szav said:

I sure hope they make them immune.  The last thing this country needs after this ends is mass company bankruptcy due to endless lawsuits related to this.

Hate to be cold hearted about this but if anyone doesn’t like their companies policy they’re free to quit their job.

And you can’t reasonably expect companies to protect everyone from asymptomatic carriers/spreaders  which current estimates put anywhere from 20-70% of those afflicted. There isn’t enough money in the universe to cover the punitive damages that would be awarded if companies are held liable for on the job infections.

I know in my companies case, our legal reviews everything.  They are monitoring policy changes in every state we operate to determine how we need to react to protect the company while still having people work in the office.  I know there are a lot of very nervous people coming in the office right now myself included but getting a paycheck is pretty important right now.

[Mmehdy]

On 4/3/2020 at 6:34 PM, gino2paulus2 said:

FINALLY landed this rarity during these strange times...GA STRONG 4 LIFE!!

Cong- great buy and great stuff coming up, I see about 3 more Big Ha auctions for the rest of the year..look for 6 in 2021 as material is lining up to get in and out to us collectors, also look for Ha weekly auctions to increase in book quality in the future, especially late 2020.

While CGC is still open, any books you might consider  the GA/SA  which you are either selling or trading should be sent to them immediately  and pay for priority grading if you want them back in time for future auction or sale. CGC could be down for a while and I believe that CGC over the grading companies consistently brings a bit more in price or possible demand to the table.

 I think the premium you will pay for grading especially in these tough times will be well worth the cost as this crisis goes on, buyers will become picker and CGC can assure them that what they are buying is what they are getting. Especially the determination of restored vs unrestored GA/SA is gonna be in many cases a make or break sale, if ungraded you will be at the mercy of the seller and why should he take a risk if so much other CGC graded material is out there for sale, up for auction or trade with little or no risk involved. It will be the ungraded GA comic book price that will take a beating.

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Mmehdy

[bluechip]

1 hour ago, szav said:

I sure hope they make them immune.  The last thing this country needs after this ends is mass company bankruptcy due to endless lawsuits related to this.

Hate to be cold hearted about this but if anyone doesn’t like their companies policy they’re free to quit their job.

And you can’t reasonably expect companies to protect everyone from asymptomatic carriers/spreaders  which current estimates put anywhere from 20-70% of those afflicted. There isn’t enough money in the universe to cover the punitive damages that would be awarded if companies are held liable for on the job infections.

I was all but certain somebody would say that (bolded section) but the devil is in the details.  There is a world of difference between 0 lawsuits and "endless lawsuits" and neither of those extremes is a good one, but people seem to assume it has to be one or the other.  

I can all but guarantee three things.  1: there will be companies that do things which are flagrant and even malicious violations of safety, like bosses who demand people work while sick and bosses who deliberately stand, coughing, over anyone who implies they should be cautious.   2:   There will be workers who insist on a level of safety which is virtually unobtainable and who will try to sue even if they hear someone cough a hundred yards.   And 3: the immunity laws that are passed will seek to ensure that lawsuits are impossible in either example #1 or #2

      

[Chicago Boy]

IMO Market was going soft prior to the crisis. Prices were coming back down to earth in my  outside of the big 2 and maybe marvel comics 1 making a bit of a resurgence. Ultra high grade keys would also fall into that category 

[Mmehdy]

58 minutes ago, Chicago Boy said:

IMO Market was going soft prior to the crisis. Prices were coming back down to earth in my  outside of the big 2 and maybe marvel comics 1 making a bit of a resurgence. Ultra high grade keys would also fall into that category 

I would second that with saying more of a price pause..Cap#1 and #3 and others were a pretty good indicator the market was running out of gas, I still feel however there was some play left in that  Cap 1.,3 but things can only go in one direction for so long. If this crisis had not occurred it might of be a slight pause for a year, maybe two before the next "hot" trend would hit GA/SA and upswing the entire overall GA/SA comic book market. If we look into the future and GA/SA prices points were artificially brought down by the crisis...does that mean that the recovery from crisis market price correction when it turns upward should be faster? It could be. Especially is this is a deep price correction. I think there will be a lot of buyers on the sideline, not just true comic book collectors but major comic book dealers and possible some investors just waiting for the right time to come into this Ga/SA market.

 What is the safest place to be in GA/SA collecting during an unknown market price decline which is predicated on a cure of a virus. This unknown territory but it is simple to say, the longer the decline, the farther the road to recovery back is. We might not ever get back to these pre-virus price points again, and the same  can be said with stock market  which was at Dow 29,000 plus. However, I think 99% at some point both will recover to the old high points. If you are, like me, waiting a bit to see where we are going, and get some type of estimate or fog clearing moment that we are all gonna be ok....SOON...I would buy in safest area. I prefer auctions over dealers for one reason and that is you can be anonymous as what you want and hyper inflate the market of the books that you want. I believe however, that buying dealer direct would cheaper in the long run, but some of this "once in a lifetime material" comes on auctions  or thru E-bay and then disappears, you never see it again and call yourself a cheapskate for not going all the way. In fact I am looking carefully at one particular item coming up soon this month, currently with just a couple of bids, but I guarantee they have not done the research I have on that "once in a lifetime" piece. Safest buying is pieces that YOU consider if you don't buy it now, you may never get it again-rarity or if I don't buy it now I will be never able to afford it again (buy Cap 1 or 3 my advice if you do not own those books or Sup1 etc...LOL). That would be my guiding principal to buy during this entire crisis. Prior to this crisis, I received a call from a collector friend who was selling a rare GA comic book collector to collector  , he wanted $13,900..based upon market value and price paid and holding time. He was offered $13,000 for it and asked me if he should take it. The offer would mean a slight loss, accounting for the holding time value of money, on paper a small profit but for factoring in inflation a slight loss. He countered at $13,500 and the buyer would come up a penny. He stated I know I can get at least $13,500 and Probably $13,750. I told him to take it, that he could use his extensive comic book collecting knowledge to turn that 13K into 20K in a heartbeat. He did not listen to me. For the last couple of months we talk about it, so he finally breaks down yesterday and calls the buyer and says I am gonna call him and take the 13K. He does, but the buyer now says $11,500 and that everything has "changed" since he made that offer. He calls me back, not a happy camper...mad as heck...asked me what he should do.. and I told him....take the $11500. If he waits and buys right he can take and turn it into $23,000 within 2 years. He did.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Chicago Boy said:

IMO Market was going soft prior to the crisis. Prices were coming back down to earth in my  outside of the big 2 and maybe marvel comics 1 making a bit of a resurgence. Ultra high grade keys would also fall into that category 

I don't mind if some of them fall my way. 

[Cat-Man_America]

7 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

I would second that with saying more of a price pause..Cap#1 and #3 and others were a pretty good indicator the market was running out of gas, I still feel however there was some play left in that  Cap 1.,3 but things can only go in one direction for so long. If this crisis had not occurred it might of be a slight pause for a year, maybe two before the next "hot" trend would hit GA/SA and upswing the entire overall GA/SA comic book market. If we look into the future and GA/SA prices points were artificially brought down by the crisis...does that mean that the recovery from crisis market price correction when it turns upward should be faster? It could be. Especially is this is a deep price correction. I think there will be a lot of buyers on the sideline, not just true comic book collectors but major comic book dealers and possible some investors just waiting for the right time to come into this Ga/SA market.

 What is the safest place to be in GA/SA collecting during an unknown market price decline which is predicated on a cure of a virus. This unknown territory but it is simple to say, the longer the decline, the farther the road to recovery back is. We might not ever get back to these pre-virus price points again, and the same  can be said with stock market  which was at Dow 29,000 plus. However, I think 99% at some point both will recover to the old high points. If you are, like me, waiting a bit to see where we are going, and get some type of estimate or fog clearing moment that we are all gonna be ok....SOON...I would buy in safest area. I prefer auctions over dealers for one reason and that is you can be anonymous as what you want and hyper inflate the market of the books that you want. I believe however, that buying dealer direct would cheaper in the long run, but some of this "once in a lifetime material" comes on auctions  or thru E-bay and then disappears, you never see it again and call yourself a cheapskate for not going all the way. In fact I am looking carefully at one particular item coming up soon this month, currently with just a couple of bids, but I guarantee they have not done the research I have on that "once in a lifetime" piece. Safest buying is pieces that YOU consider if you don't buy it now, you may never get it again-rarity or if I don't buy it now I will be never able to afford it again (buy Cap 1 or 3 my advice if you do not own those books or Sup1 etc...LOL). That would be my guiding principal to buy during this entire crisis. Prior to this crisis, I received a call from a collector friend who was selling a rare GA comic book collector to collector  , he wanted $13,900..based upon market value and price paid and holding time. He was offered $13,000 for it and asked me if he should take it. The offer would mean a slight loss, accounting for the holding time value of money, on paper a small profit but for factoring in inflation a slight loss. He countered at $13,500 and the buyer would come up a penny. He stated I know I can get at least $13,500 and Probably $13,750. I told him to take it, that he could use his extensive comic book collecting knowledge to turn that 13K into 20K in a heartbeat. He did not listen to me. For the last couple of months we talk about it, so he finally breaks down yesterday and calls the buyer and says I am gonna call him and take the 13K. He does, but the buyer now says $11,500 and that everything has "changed" since he made that offer. He calls me back, not a happy camper...mad as heck...asked me what he should do.. and I told him....take the $11500. If he waits and buys right he can take and turn it into $23,000 within 2 years. He did.

But if fuel prices have gotten lower why is the market running out of gas? ...    ...  

[Cat-Man_America]

3 minutes ago, szav said:

In a perfect world it wouldn't have to be one or the other, but the reality of our overly litigious society may necessitate the choice of one of them. 

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies, and you open the floodgates to potentially millions upon millions of frivolous and/or unprovable claims that could crush businesses under the sheer cost of defending and settling them.  This doesn't help anyone but the lawyers.  This is one of the main reasons why health care costs are out of control in this country to begin with.  The damage this could cause in terms of lost jobs, and increased costs for everything (because the people who ultimately pay the cost will be the consumers and the taxpayers) would be devastating to an economy already reeling.  

I guess I just have a hard time seeing what the reasonable middle ground here could possibly be.  Maybe I'm wrong or being shortsighted, but I'm also skeptical that more than a handful of people would ever be able to prove that they got sick due to exposure at work vs exposure outside of work.  We're in unprecedented times for sure.  I've been worried from the start that the cost of our panic and reaction to this plague would take a heavier toll than the disease itself, and the thought of all the lawsuits sure to come when the dust settles is really unnerving to me.

 

 

 

The reasonable middle ground is the only way we'll all survive this as a society.  My better angel will always choose doctors and lawyers over financial profiteers with vested self-interests.  

[Cat-Man_America]

14 minutes ago, szav said:

I've run into more than one lawyer in my day that was a self interested financial profiteer, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're licking their chops right now.  Unity is the best way to get through this though, so I'll stop rambling (on this topic anyway!) after this post.  I don't think there's an easy or good, or 100% right choice here.  I just think giving immunity would be the lesser of evils.  Would love to be proven wrong, but only time will tell.

Anyone can be a profiteer.  I certainly don't begrudge profit ...that would be the epitome of hypocrisy... but as professions, lawyers and doctors are the backbone and defensive line of social order.  ...BTW, I'm neither a lawyer nor a doctor and I've never played one on TV (I did play a vampire once, but that's another story).  

My inclination is to root for the little guy up against the crunch of wealth and privilege, not because I have issues with wealth or privilege, but because I also support fairness.  What I'm saying is that a reasonable balance provides security.  The breakdown of social order occurs when a system fails to support fairness for the vast majority of folks who reside at the lower end of the spectrum.  Sadly, unity will not occur in the near term because that is not the prevailing philosophy guiding us.

That said, we're still on the same page and you're absolutely right that there's no easy, good, or 100% right choice.  It's just that there isn't any one-size-fits-all solution either.

Bottom line: With our health (knock on wood) and plenty of beers on hand ...NO Corona... there's still room for GA comics in my life even in the midst of the zombie apocalypse.

[lou_fine]

3 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

With our health (knock on wood) and plenty of beers on hand ...NO Corona... t

Well, if this global lockdown lasts long enough, no doubt as I heard that the Corona plant down in Mexico is closed down since it's non-essential.  

Edited April 5, 2020 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

 TMI since I don’t imbibe Corona beer it’s non-essential!, ...but fine ales are a staple of life !!!

 

 

[comicjack]

1 hour ago, Cat-Man_America said:

 TMI since I don’t imbibe Corona beer it’s non-essential!, ...but fine ales are a staple of life !!!

 

 

So is toilet paper  

[waaaghboss]

4 hours ago, comicjack said:

So is toilet paper  

Fortunately I have many long and short boxes of emergency toilet paper in my basement

[bluechip]

21 hours ago, szav said:

In a perfect world it wouldn't have to be one or the other, but the reality of our overly litigious society may necessitate the choice of one of them. 

Allow any lawsuits for claims that you contracted coronavirus due to your job or workplace policies, and you open the floodgates to potentially millions upon millions of frivolous and/or unprovable claims that could crush businesses under the sheer cost of defending and settling them.  This doesn't help anyone but the lawyers.  This is one of the main reasons why health care costs are out of control in this country to begin with.  The damage this could cause in terms of lost jobs, and increased costs for everything (because the people who ultimately pay the cost will be the consumers and the taxpayers) would be devastating to an economy already reeling.  

I guess I just have a hard time seeing what the reasonable middle ground here could possibly be.  Maybe I'm wrong or being shortsighted, but I'm also skeptical that more than a handful of people would ever be able to prove that they got sick due to exposure at work vs exposure outside of work.  We're in unprecedented times for sure.  I've been worried from the start that the cost of our panic and reaction to this plague would take a heavier toll than the disease itself, and the thought of all the lawsuits sure to come when the dust settles is really unnerving to me.

I really hope these current social distancing policies and shelter in place orders can start cutting down on the number of people that are stricken, or that we can come up with a good treatment or vaccine sooner than predicted, and that my worries are proven to have been unfounded.

 

 

I've visited, worked and lived in countries where they didn't presume that allowing any lawsuits at all is necessarily catastrophic.   Yet the costs of their health care per capita isn't nowhere near what ours is. 

But while they do have lawyers who can sue for malpractice, they don't have heath care company CEOs making the kind of seven, eight and even nine figure salaries they "earn" here.

   

Edited April 6, 2020 by bluechip

[bluechip]

9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, if this global lockdown lasts long enough, no doubt as I heard that the Corona plant down in Mexico is closed down since it's non-essential.  

Digging around in storage the other day I discovered a box filled with booze and soda left over from a party some time ago, and there were half a dozen bottles of unopened corona beer.   I put them aside figuring maybe they'll be collector's items. 

[Cat-Man_America]

7 hours ago, comicjack said:

So is toilet paper  

Obviously you're unaware of technological advances in the Appalachian regions where they have this covered... 

[Mmehdy]

A real issue on GA/SA collecting is looking at  a comic book you potentially want to buy and figuring out if the book would be a good candidate for pressing etc and resubmission. It can  be graded or ungraded and we all consider this factor during a purchase. During this crisis time many factors will change the normal course  especially using this as a  major factor in a GA/SA buying decision. If you think based on these unstable market conditions you can turn an immediate profit..you had better do so ASAP... Things are gonna change.

 

1-If you have considered pressing/etc  your GA book and resubmitting it to the CGC or taking a ungraded book and putting it on steroids and then submitting  to the CGC, I would recommend you do it at once. CGC both pressing and grading services could be closed for  a very long time. Further your book could sit after being pressed  to await a regrade if you get caught in the middle. 

2- I think CGC graded GA..restored or unrestored is the best insurance you can have to try to reduce any great decline  of value in your collection, I would submit any ungraded GA/SA material which you  conclude  is worth grading ASAP. They will easier to sell or trade during this downturn.

3-We have not really hit a depression mentality yet..it is too soon...everybody becomes cheap in a depression mentality and our usual lifestyle that we have been living is gonna  substantially change.If you are buying  a GA book that you feel could be upgraded by CGC magic, you must now consider this major factor or consideration: Will the upcoming price decline will wipe out any increase in value of the GA/SA book that  you anticipated . Will the costs of upgrading adding to the purchase price put eliminate some buyers as the price will change for the book.  The more you have invested in the book, the greater the return is necessary to break even or turn a profit. When that community depression mentality hits, and it will, ALL collectable values are going to be  in the radar of  that mentality whether you collect GA/SA or comic book original art, coins etc.

 My advice to you if you will need to sell in the next 12 months or want to trade..get your books in now to the CGC to preserve your collections top value going forward while you can. We will turn the corner on this and we GA/SA collectors can go back to what we do best..Enjoy GA/SA as there is nothing else like it.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Mmehdy

[bronze johnny]

33 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

A real issue on GA/SA collecting is looking at  a comic book you potentially want to buy and figuring out if the book would be a good candidate for pressing etc and resubmission. It can  be graded or ungraded and we all consider this factor during a purchase. During this crisis time many factors will change the normal course  especially using this as a  major factor in a GA/SA buying decision. If you think based on these unstable market conditions you can turn an immediate profit..you had better do so ASAP... Things are gonna change.

 

1-If you have considered pressing/etc  your GA book and resubmitting it to the CGC or taking a ungraded book and putting it on steroids and then submitting  to the CGC, I would recommend you do it at once. CGC both pressing and grading services could be closed for  a very long time. Further your book could sit after being pressed  to await a regrade if you get caught in the middle. 

2- I think CGC graded GA..restored or unrestored is the best insurance you can have to try to reduce any great decline  of value in your collection, I would submit any ungraded GA/SA material which you  conclude  is worth grading ASAP. They will easier to sell or trade during this downturn.

3-We have not really hit a depression mentality yet..it is too soon...everybody becomes cheap in a depression mentality and our usual lifestyle that we have been living is gonna  substantially change.If you are buying  a GA book that you feel could be upgraded by CGC magic, you must now consider this major factor or consideration: Will the upcoming price decline will wipe out any increase in value of the GA/SA book that  you anticipated . Will the costs of upgrading adding to the purchase price put eliminate some buyers as the price will change for the book.  The more you have invested in the book, the greater the return is necessary to break even or turn a profit. When that community depression mentality hits, and it will, ALL collectable values are going to be  in the radar of  that mentality whether you collect GA/SA or comic book original art, coins etc.

 My advice to you if you will need to sell in the next 12 months or want to trade..get your books in now to the CGC to preserve your collections top value going forward while you can.

"Depression mentality?"

Have you studied the economic consequences of past pandemics? I can tell you from my studies of past pandemics, in particular the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, the evidence demonstrates that the declining economic impact was temporary and followed by an increase in manufacturing and job growth. Entertainment and service industries were the hardest hit while other areas of business including healthcare expanded. Interestingly, the greater increase in job growth were the areas with the highest mortality rate. What's the methodology you're using to make these determinations? What historical evidence do you have to support your "Depressions Mentality" conclusion? Do you have historical data upon which your conclusions are based? I'd like to see it if you do. You can PM your information. Thanks!

It's important not to speculate about depressions and economic catastrophes and "pandemania" can often create speculation that only feeds further fear.

Best to stick with the factual evidence and none of what I've studied about the economic consequences of pandemics suggests what your saying here.

Respectfully,

John

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by bronze johnny

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, bronze johnny said:

"Depression mentality?"

Have you studied the economic consequences of past pandemics? I can tell you from my studies of past pandemics, in particular the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, the evidence demonstrates that the declining economic impact was temporary and followed by an increase in manufacturing and job growth. Entertainment and service industries were the hardest hit while other areas of business including healthcare expanded. Interestingly, the greater increase in job growth were the areas with the highest mortality rate. What's the methodology you're using to make these determinations? What historical evidence do you have to support your "Depressions Mentality" conclusion? Do you have historical data upon which your conclusions are based? I'd like to see it if you do. You can PM your information. Thanks!

It's important not to speculate about depressions and economic catastrophes and "pandemania" can often create speculation that only feeds further fear.

Best to stick with the factual evidence and none of what I've studied about the economic consequences of pandemics suggests what your saying here.

Respectfully,

John

 

 

JOHN:

The wrong assumption you making looking back at the 1918 Pandemic or others is that the economy was just that ...1918. Economy, and  for that matter any historical  economy. We live in an entirely different world today in 2020. The US government is is record breaking debt as well as Europe and nations. Our reliance on other nations, for example China for cheaper medicine was non-existent in 1918. There are many factors too many to list here which point to this being a unique situation in time for humanity.

 Historical data is important, but  only relevant  under those exact same circumstances and conditions if you want to project those exact results as the probable outcome so be it. We can use it as a reference point but not gospel. Historical data does not necessary translate into 2020 reality.

I am not speculating, but merely stating the facts which present themselves today, April 5, 2020. We are in a depression, period.  Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression,.The whole world does not know it yet, but the forward thinkers do. I do not think, if you read my earlier posts, that this will last in terms of historical data-10 years for the last depression in USA that  nor will be the same, I am always siding on the positive side of things. Max 3 years..Min 1 is my best guess here. If we face "reality" and tackle as such, then we have  much less fear to deal..it is the unknown  that is greatest fear.. That is my point here. Discuss it and rather  keep it in. One of my major concerns is the underwater pension plans of the state and local governments especially the state of Illinois whose projections of fund growth to pay underfunded pensions plans have just hit a block wall.  Calpiers took a 69 billion dollar hit in value and the stock market still has a way to go. While historically there might be some incidents of the past that are very similar, there is nothing like this combination of  2020 issues together. The solution I see if the federal government taking over those  pension plans and printing money. Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this  money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper. You and me probably thru inflation down the ,as it is a cheaper payback.. Again, a lot of unique 2020 circumstances all combining at once. This financial crisis would have probably happened anyway some where down the line, this just sped it up and put us in a very weak position to deal with it today.  There are major fundamental flaws of the world economy in 2020 and they are going be exposed. You cannot use the historical  past to say I have bad attitude about this, If we use the  past history of depressions, look at the Germany and US in the 1930's.it took a war to get out.  Today,Nobody is gonna be able to afford to go war this time.

 

 I appreciate your opinion, I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong, but the probable outcome here is something in between. I ask that  you to take into consideration the  complete current economic system as it exists today which has major flaws in it and  not  just in a  historical bubble  of past pandemics  recoveries. This recession/depression  is something much bigger and fundamental system wise than this virus. We just need some luck here to find this vaccine....and get on the right track, but there are some big changes and fixes coming and they will be for the better for ALL. In the end we will overcome whatever is in front us and learn from that, be better citizens and not just look at our phones and consider that the entire world but remember that it is the real people that count and we are all in this together.

 So here is my question to you, based upon your extensive reading and understanding of past pandemics what is your best guess as to how things will play out over next 3 months, 6 months and and year? I am interested to hear your opinion.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Mmehdy