Combined investment will cause Golden Age (Collectors) to explode 3 3

[sfcityduck]

3 hours ago, bc said:

I know someone here tracks all the record sales prices, but how many $1 million+ books are there? 

Only 8 public sales have topped $1 million.  5 Action 1, 1 D27, 1 MC 1, 1 AF 15 (and that appears an outlier now).

[valiantman]

Create a system to allow anyone to invest in key issues and it won't take long for All-Star #8 to join that list.  1st Wonder Woman would be a million dollar book if everyone with $10 to $10,000 wanting to own 1st Wonder Woman could digitally join forces.

[innocuous]

This was a fun read. I was just thinking of investing in real estate via CrowdStreet, which could be loosely related. If there is a marketplace, people want to participate. The marketplace is already there, so I would be willing to play. You may say the market is small, but there is scale here where there could be funds dedicated to different collectibles, such as sports cards, by a single company. 

[N e r V]

4 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

Only 8 public sales have topped $1 million.  5 Action 1, 1 D27, 1 MC 1, 1 AF 15 (and that appears an outlier now).

 

8 hours ago, bc said:

I know someone here tracks all the record sales prices, but how many $1 million+ books are there? Think a safe bet is currently less than 10..and that goes back to what MrB was stating earlier about the size of the potential market cap vs the potential profit for a long-term, non-dividend yielding investment vehicle.

Maybe this concept applies better to other forms of high-end collectibles that have 1,000s of examples of big sales numbers (like cars).

I think based on the posters comments that the point of doing this was to to try to drive prices much higher on books for it to work. 
 

It might be something that someone does to a degree but if you have no stomach for the typical investing with stocks, etc. I’d say this is a pretty sketchy business model with more downside than upside...

[N e r V]

8 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

How about I hook you up with an Action #1 owner and you can give him/her how ever much you want to for the privilege of saying you are part owner of an Action #1?

You forgot to mention your cut in this new business model you’re trying to introduce.

Sounds to me like Mr. Bedrock is trying to become a Golden Age pimp...

You supply the cash and he’ll hook you up with some pre code whore...

[Black Bat]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Create a system to allow anyone to invest in key issues and it won't take long for All-Star #8 to join that list.  1st Wonder Woman would be a million dollar book if everyone with $10 to $10,000 wanting to own 1st Wonder Woman could digitally join forces.

Dude- I admire your gusto.  And your aisle of comics.  And your digitized library.  And your great attitude in the face of all the pessimism.  Seriously.  And yeah, I see how owning pieces of valuable books you love could be kinda fun (they should break it down by page, or panel.  Wait- Yeah!  Instead of stock certificates they could issue the individual panels of each page to the investors, covers and splashes for bigger buy ins- now that would be cool!  Hang that on your wall! Hmmm maybe I will get in on this thing...), sort of like fantasy football or something- fantasy comic book collecting.   But as an investment?  There's no way I'm handing over enough money to this sketchy arrangement to make a worthwhile "investment".  With that money I'm investing in something more liquid, or better yet, buying more actual books!  Books I crave- hunting for them at good prices and condition- and maybe their value increases over the years.  That's fun, and potentially profitable.  But I'll be watching to see how those investor books do- that'll be fun too!

Actually... if this thing takes off, like really takes off the way you're projecting, then I'll start a mutual fund consisting of shares of individual individual books.  Now that would be cool.  

Edited July 28, 2020 by Black Bat

[G.A.tor]

I see the majority of collectors wanting to own the book...hence this service is of no use to them

I see the majority of investors wanting to own the book and fully profit from it...hence this service is of no use to them

I see some segment of the market that will obviously find this appealing, but there isn't "real" money to be made on a $50 investment (not consequential money), so it shouldnt be that appealing as an investment avenue, and there isn't an avenue that will result in these books even getting back to par, more or less starting 20% or so in the hole...that appeals to very few I suspect... and to the few that just want to "own" a piece of a book...do they really? they will never get to take possession of the book...never get to hold the book...never get to show off the book?....I just don't see it having any meaningful or long term impact in or to the hobby... just my 2c, I could certainly be wrong

[valiantman]

Just now, G.A.tor said:

I see the majority of collectors wanting to own the book...hence this service is of no use to them

I see the majority of investors wanting to own the book and fully profit from it...hence this service is of no use to them

I see some segment of the market that will obviously find this appealing, but there isn't "real" money to be made on a $50 investment (not consequential money), so it shouldnt be that appealing as an investment avenue, and there isn't an avenue that will result in these books even getting back to par, more or less starting 20% or so in the hole...that appeals to very few I suspect... and to the few that just want to "own" a piece of a book...do they really? they will never get to take possession of the book...never get to hold the book...never get to show off the book?....I just don't see it having any meaningful or long term impact in or to the hobby... just my 2c, I could certainly be wrong

You've just made a perfect case against bitcoin.

It's at $200B.

[G.A.tor]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

You've just made a perfect case against bitcoin.

It's at $200B.

actually I haven't...you can't compare bitcoin to comics...apples and oranges...

[valiantman]

Just now, G.A.tor said:

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

You've just made a perfect case against bitcoin.

It's at $200B.

actually I haven't...you can't compare bitcoin to comics...apples and oranges...

If you're spending $1,000 on apples or $1,000 on oranges, you can compare them.  You either get what you wanted for $1,000, or you don't.

[G.A.tor]

10 minutes ago, valiantman said:

If you're spending $1,000 on apples or $1,000 on oranges, you can compare them.  You either get what you wanted for $1,000, or you don't.

not talking about the transactional function...you can spend $1000 on dirt too, but that doesn't apply any more than comparing bitcoin to comics...

talking about underlying reasons "comic share" wont  materialize in the long run... folks don't buy bitcoin for the enjoyment of owing a piece of a superhero comic, or childhood memory, or intangible appeal (like you owning a ton of superman items but not action 1)...bitcoin has become currency and investment, regardless of whether it is physically backed up by a tangible item or not (a paper dollar bill is not truly backed up by anything, either, as it once was...more and more transactions occur electronically with no physical presence )...bitcoin has come to serve a function, regardless...

Comics have existed for 80+ years...folks have co owned or "shared" comics as long as anyone can remember...folks have profited from the buying and selling of comics, almost always when bought at a less than current fmv evaluation... comic share sells a piece of a called investment, and sells it at a 20% premium... if this item or similar item doesn't trade hands at higher prices, then there is no fundamental reason for folks to pay more for a share, than initially offered...astute folks would see it as losing 20% right off the bat (which is why it hasn't seen mass appeal I'm sure)...and ultimately comic collecting and , gulp, "investing" typically has an emotional component (as you stated, getting to own " a part" of an action 1)... I predict it will not produce the results you anticipate (ie causing GA comics to explode in value), but as mentioned, I could be wrong

Edited July 28, 2020 by G.A.tor

[valiantman]

20 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Comics have existed for 80+ years...folks have co owned or "shared" comics as long as anyone can remember...folks have profited from the buying and selling of comics, almost always when bought at a less than current fmv evaluation... comic share sells a piece of a called investment, and sells it at a 20% premium... if this item or similar item doesn't trade hands at higher prices, then there is no fundamental reason for folks to pay more for a share, than initially offered...astute folks would see it as losing 20% right off the bat (which is why it hasn't seen mass appeal I'm sure)...and ultimately comic collecting and , gulp, "investing" typically has an emotional component (as you stated, getting to own " a part" of an action 1)... I predict it will not produce the results you anticipate (ie causing GA comics to explode in value), but as mentioned, I could be wrong

Fair enough - and you're certainly entitled to your (certainly well-informed) opinion, but I think one thing that is missing from the discussion is that NOT everyone in the comic shares system would be looking for a quick profit.  I've mentioned either in this topic or one of the others currently active on the board that I would be investing in key Golden Age books for 10-to-30 years, and I would HAPPILY pay a 20% premium for shares of key Golden Age books today, because I do not believe I will:

1) Ever have the money to purchase ANY of the key Golden Age books outright.

2) Have an opportunity to make it worth anyone's time to work together with me ($100 to $1,000 at a time) to set up one of the "folks have co owned comics as long as anyone can remember" for a $100,000+ comic. (I'm not worth your time, or anyone else's.)

3) If, somehow, I had a financial windfall before 10-to-30 years have passed, I believe those key Golden Age issues will already have increased in value by more than 20% (vs. today), and I would have been better off paying that 20% up front.

For those three reasons, and knowing that I would plan to hold my shares forever - literally - my family would be the ones to sell, and a digital exchange would be much easier on them when the time comes than 1,000 slabs - so that's a 4th reason that the system should exist and be successful for someone like me.

Flippers wouldn't even need to bother with such a system... but long-term comic collectors who really would like to "complete" their life's work in part (with shares) since they'll never complete it in full (complete copies), would have that option.

If enough long-term collectors/investors thought like I do... those key Golden Age books would not only be "locked up" for decades, but the money that fueled them would come from all sorts of untapped funds, which this industry has never seen pointed in that direction.

Edited July 28, 2020 by valiantman

[Aman619]

Hey I bought $1000 of dirt!  It’s a fascinating business in the suburbs.  Somebody adds onto their house, pays someone to dig and then Pays extra to haul away the dirt from the hole for the foundation.  Builder finds a landscaper building a berm and needs dirt.  Owner has to pay landscaper not only for the dirt, but also to transport it to his backyard.  The dirt triples in value.  Common, lousy dirt!   Seems like a good business!

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

Hey I bought $1000 of dirt!  It’s a fascinating business in the suburbs.  Somebody adds onto their house, pays someone to dig and then Pays extra to haul away the dirt from the hole for the foundation.  Builder finds a landscaper building a berm and needs dirt.  Owner has to pay landscaper not only for the dirt, but also to transport it to his backyard.  The dirt triples in value.  Common, lousy dirt!   Seems like a good business!

Someone posted a "FREE DIRT" photo on our community's Facebook page and there were a dozen comments asking "WHERE?!?" within the first ten minutes.

[G.A.tor]

17 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Fair enough - and you're certainly entitled to your (certainly well-informed) opinion, but I think one thing that is missing from the discussion is that NOT everyone in the comic shares system would be looking for a quick profit.  I've mentioned either in this topic or one of the others currently active on the board that I would be investing in key Golden Age books for 10-to-30 years, and I would HAPPILY pay a 20% premium for shares of key Golden Age books today, because I do not believe I will:

1) Ever have the money to purchase ANY of the key Golden Age books outright.

2) Have an opportunity to make it worth anyone's time to work together with me ($100 to $1,000 at a time) to set up one of the "folks have co owned comics as long as anyone can remember" for a $100,000+ comic. (I'm not worth your time, or anyone else's.)

3) If, somehow, I had a financial windfall before 10-to-30 years have passed, I believe those key Golden Age issues will already have increased in value by more than 20% (vs. today), and I would have been better off paying that 20% up front.

For those three reasons, and knowing that I would plan to hold my shares forever - literally - my family would be the ones to sell, and a digital exchange would be much easier on them when the time comes than 1,000 slabs - so that's a 4th reason that the system should exist and be successful for someone like me.

Flippers wouldn't even need to bother with such a system... but long-term comic collectors who really would like to "complete" their life's work in part (with shares) since they'll never complete it in full (complete copies), would have that option.

If enough long-term collectors/investors thought like I do... those key Golden Age books would not only be "locked up" for decades, but the money that fueled them would come from all sorts of untapped funds, which this industry has never seen pointed in that direction.

1-very likely most collectors are in this boat, which is why those type of books trade hands a lot less frequently, and to those affluent enough to afford (and control the market)

2-doesn't happen because logistically and financially not worth it generally

3-all time value of money and opportunity costs...the rate at which the comic "might" increase, one could likely take that $100 or $1000 and turn it into way more than 20% (break even point) with a little work (buy a bronze key to flip, etc)...

its part 4 that won't materialize...long time collectors that I know (and I know a lot) don't want to complete their collections "partially" (in reality not at all since they won't ever have the comic)...the true completists wants the book, not the investment, or the "ideal" that they own some part of a book that they will never "own"... Just reading the responses from the majority of collectors here on the board, indicate this is not the case...

that said, there are certainly those that will buy shares (as indicated by some offerings selling)...what I don't think will materialize will be an active secondary market for those shares at higher prices (see my cap 3 example)

again, who knows, to each their own, but I am willing to bet all (by not "investing" ) that this won't affect any golden age prices to any degree

 

[valiantman]

7 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

1-very likely most collectors are in this boat, which is why those type of books trade hands a lot less frequently, and to those affluent enough to afford (and control the market)

2-doesn't happen because logistically and financially not worth it generally

3-all time value of money and opportunity costs...the rate at which the comic "might" increase, one could likely take that $100 or $1000 and turn it into way more than 20% (break even point) with a little work (buy a bronze key to flip, etc)...

its part 4 that won't materialize...long time collectors that I know (and I know a lot) don't want to complete their collections "partially" (in reality not at all since they won't ever have the comic)...the true completists wants the book, not the investment, or the "ideal" that they own some part of a book that they will never "own"... Just reading the responses from the majority of collectors here on the board, indicate this is not the case...

that said, there are certainly those that will buy shares (as indicated by some offerings selling)...what I don't think will materialize will be an active secondary market for those shares at higher prices (see my cap 3 example)

again, who knows, to each their own, but I am willing to bet all (by not "investing" ) that this won't affect any golden age prices to any degree

 

1 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

2 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

3 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

4 - you don't think the first three reasons would result in money going to key books, if such a system did exist.

Now we've established that you wouldn't take part in such a system.   Noted.

That's not surprising, since you're in the group of people who can own (and control) key book costs, decide who to partner with, and easily flip Bronze keys for cash (a true apples/oranges situation vs what I'm talking about - long-term partial ownership of Golden Age keys versus flipping comics I care nothing about for quick cash, which I'm not looking for). 

None of the three situations applies to you, so the system would be useless to the 20 people in the industry like you, but not the 20,000,000 like me. 

What? 20,000,000 people?  Am I nuts?  Nope. If anyone has comics they won't throw away - they can't throw away... probably about 20,000,000 people... they probably also have an idea of which comics they'd love to own but don't. 

They MIGHT be interested in partial ownership - like stocks, crypto, mutual funds, and pretty much every other investment type in history.  20,000,000 might be interested, and it only took 100 of them to devour an overpriced Captain America #3 in three minutes.

[G.A.tor]

10 minutes ago, valiantman said:

1 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

2 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

3 - so there's money today that isn't going to key books which could be.

4 - you don't think the first three reasons would result in money going to key books, if such a system did exist.

Now we've established that you wouldn't take part in such a system.   Noted.

That's not surprising, since you're in the group of people who can own (and control) key book costs, decide who to partner with, and easily flip Bronze keys for cash (a true apples/oranges situation vs what I'm talking about - long-term partial ownership of Golden Age keys versus flipping comics I care nothing about for quick cash, which I'm not looking for). 

None of the three situations applies to you, so the system would be useless to the 20 people in the industry like you, but not the 20,000,000 like me. 

What? 20,000,000 people?  Am I nuts?  Nope. If anyone has comics they won't throw away - they can't throw away... probably about 20,000,000 people... they probably also have an idea of which comics they'd love to own but don't. 

They MIGHT be interested in partial ownership - like stocks, crypto, mutual funds, and pretty much every other investment type in history.  20,000,000 might be interested, and it only took 100 of them to devour an overpriced Captain America #3 in three minutes.

at the time, that might have been a recent sale on a cap 3...my point is, do you think if those 100 folks knew that the book not only was overpriced 20%, but maybe even now overpriced 40%, they would have devoured it? the real test will be when shares open for trading (again, a 90 day window is way to restrictive, maybe going to daily trading will help?) what do they trade at (if at all)... I don't know the answer, but please report back... 

 

and there are hundreds if not 1000's of serious golden age collectors that can purchase most any book they want...the handful of books that are out of reach, most have come to terms with

but there are most definitely not 20,000,000 folks that "might" be interested in golden age comics...I'm guessing its the same  1000's that are already collectors of that genre... but that's my experience, others will vary... will be fun to watch, if nothing else, but it won't make golden age books "explode" in value...it just won't (imo)

[MrBedrock]

My wife would call this thread NATO - No Action, Talk Only

If you want it to happen, go out and make it happen. It is certainly not going to happen by trying to convince folks in this forum that it is worthwhile.

[G.A.tor]

2 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

My wife would call this thread NATO - No Action, Talk Only

If you want it to happen, go out and make it happen. It is certainly not going to happen by trying to convince folks in this forum that it is worthwhile.

true, but it is good, fun discourse in an otherwise generally dreary time (covid)...I like Greg (he joined on my birthday, Oct 8!), and I wish him luck...but I just don't see it (though, as stated, I could be wrong)

[valiantman]

2 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

My wife would call this thread NATO - No Action, Talk Only

If you want it to happen, go out and make it happen. It is certainly not going to happen by trying to convince folks in this forum that it is worthwhile.

I guess it's good I'm just predicting that this will happen to Golden Age keys when the system exists.  As far as "make it happen", since I clearly do not have the means to buy $100,000+ comics, I cannot (personally... for that extra redundancy) build a system that would cost millions to develop.

If I was predicting mass casualties, going out and making it happen personally would be a bad way to "prove it".