The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[sfcityduck]

Here is what everyone should be worried about:

A lot of us whose jobs are not impacted by the pandemic now have excess money because we have been forced to forego a lot of discretionary spending.  I'm talking vacations, nice restaurants, going to sporting events, movies, etc.  So we suddenly find ourselves bored and with extra cash.  What do you do?  You buy things you can enjoy in your home that make you happy, one of which is collectables.  

So what's going to happen when the world re-opens and we can all travel again?  

Me, I'm taking some trips.  

Think about it.

[Shrevvy]

1 hour ago, Wally's Comics said:

The thing is this mind set made me have the same drive for any comic first app and it had me less patient that I have learned in a painful way.
I bought a Hulk 181 right after the CGC bronze bubble burst around 2005. Regardless of all the x-men/wolverine movies that book just wouldn't go up for SIX YEARS! I got tired of that and in 2011 I flipped it and a GSX1 for the same price I bought them for (just dumb for not being patient) and FINALLY only a few months after my flip- the Millennials "POOF" had $$$ and the IH 181 was their baby. LOL!

 

I don't usually regret sales, but I sold my GSX1 several years ago. I looked for months to find the whitest CGC 9.8 I could find. I bought it from Metro for peak or above GPA at the time ($4k or $6k, I can't remember and I don't want to look it up - I've been having a good day so far ). It was the best 9.8 copy I had seen. I ultimately sold it for around what I paid for. I tried selling it on the boards. Lots of interest, but no real takers. I ended up selling it off boards. I tried finding my sales thread for the book, but I am terrible with the search function here. A 9.8 closed on CL last night for $67,900. I should not have just looked...

[1Cool]

40 minutes ago, StingerMcK said:

Im very curious how prices will be at cons, as they start to become a thing again.  You always hear about dealers making a killing at a show, and other dealers who make nothing, because the casuals and cosplayers aren't spending money.  If cons have eBay and Clink prices, the casuals will continue to not buy., but will collectors pay those prices in person? And will the 'bored rich' go to a con to get more books?

There has been a couple small Cons over the last few months in my area and people were buying like crazy.  Most of the sellers there were not selling high grade keys so I'm not sure what will happen when guys like Gator shows up with a mountain of keys but I expect a truck load of cash to be going his way.  People are flush with cash right now but we will see what later in the year brings when things settle down a bit.  I expect the first few Cons out of the gate to be mad houses.

[Darkowl]

31 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

I think the math is cut and dry. The key is to be boring! 

Real estate has risk. Individual stocks have risk. Funds have risk to, but they are diversified.  In 2008 Block buster may have draged the fund down but Amazon and Netflix picked it up so everyone won in the long run. That's the key... Play the long boring game. 

Gold and silver aren't really investments. They are assets, but they aren't developed to grow like a business is.  It isn't intended to create profit margin and pay dividends. It's intended to hedge against recessions and move just ahead of inflation. 

Slow, steady and boring is the key. Not buying and selling and trying to pick winners. 

 

Like I said, the math isn’t necessarily wrong, but the math does only work when applied to certain investments, and situations. It’s a general formula that ignores several variables. 

It fails to take into consideration the number of people who can’t afford to wait for their investments to make a come back.The 2008 housing crash is a prime example of that. 

If people had held onto their money, instead of dumping it into a market that was about to take a nose dive, so many of them wouldn’t have had to claim bankruptcy, go on unemployment, or go into even further debt just so they could attend college for the second time in their life.  Not to mention the severe stress and depression people underwent due to their financial struggles.

Was it worth the risk? 

I’m sure many of them will tell you that it wasn’t, because the reality is that not everyone has the time or the means to ride out those kinds of waves. Some waves are just too big to ride out. 

And what about businesses who have gone under due to illegal corporate activities?

I actually used to work for an investment company who robbed millions from their customers (unbeknownst to me at the time). Do you really think those poor people got their money back after the Feds shut them down? 
 

Or what about certain comic books that have tanked, never to have seen a return even remotely close to their peak? I love using Peter Panzerfaust as an example, because it shows that exactly what  happens when something is driven up by sheer speculation. That book shot up in value FAST!  It used to sell for over 1K, because people had their fingers crossed that it was going to be the next WD1. But guess what? It’s a $100 book now.

Are you really going to suggest that people should have just held onto their copies because playing the long, boring game is the key? 

That kind of math just doesn’t hold up in every situation, and using it as a “one size fits all” approach will clearly result in some ramifications.

[Shrevvy]

1 minute ago, 1Cool said:

There has been a couple small Cons over the last few months in my area and people were buying like crazy.  Most of the sellers there were not selling high grade keys so I'm not sure what will happen when guys like Gator shows up with a mountain of keys but I expect a truck load of cash to be going his way.  People are flush with cash right now but we will see what later in the year brings when things settle down a bit.  I expect the first few Cons out of the gate to be mad houses.

We had to wait 45 minutes to get into the Westlake show a couple weeks ago. It is sort of funny. They were trying to keep the sales floor less crowded for social distancing, yet 150 of us were standing six inches apart in the hotel lobby waiting to get in...

But you are right, lots of buying going on. I can only guess at what we had missed getting into the con late. I still came home with a stack of books. Already tried following up to purchase books post con and they are gone. Some nice books at the show. Two DD #1s, one of which is probably a deal today.

I am ready to hit another show as soon as I can. 

[MatterEaterLad]

7 minutes ago, Shrevvy said:

I don't usually regret sales, but I sold my GSX1 several years ago. I looked for months to find the whitest CGC 9.8 I could find. I bought it from Metro for peak or above GPA at the time ($4k or $6k, I can't remember and I don't want to look it up - I've been having a good day so far ). It was the best 9.8 copy I had seen. I ultimately sold it for around what I paid for. I tried selling it on the boards. Lots of interest, but no real takers. I ended up selling it off boards. I tried finding my sales thread for the book, but I am terrible with the search function here. A 9.8 closed on CL last night for $67,900. I should not have just looked...

We could create a whole thread of "selling too soon" regrets.

Mine would be selling three 9.9 Miller DDs about a year ago. 

[Shrevvy]

4 minutes ago, MatterEaterLad said:

We could create a whole thread of "selling too soon" regrets.

Mine would be selling three 9.9 Miller DDs about a year ago. 

You are right. In this market, every sale is a bad sale. 

[sfcityduck]

10 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

There has been a couple small Cons over the last few months in my area and people were buying like crazy.  Most of the sellers there were not selling high grade keys so I'm not sure what will happen when guys like Gator shows up with a mountain of keys but I expect a truck load of cash to be going his way.  People are flush with cash right now but we will see what later in the year brings when things settle down a bit.  I expect the first few Cons out of the gate to be mad houses.

Cons are the poor man's internet.  Heck, lots of dealers were fleeing cons such as Comic-Con that weren't really focused on buying and selling comics any more.  Anyone on this site can email Gator and I'm sure he'll sell you a book.  I personally feel that by the time the big cons re-open, a lot of folks are going to have other options to spend money on that they will have been denied for a year and a half or more.  No one has been denied the opportunity to buy comics during Covid.  So as the world opens back up, the market is likely going to cool down.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

14 minutes ago, MatterEaterLad said:

We could create a whole thread of "selling too soon" regrets.

Mine would be selling three 9.9 Miller DDs about a year ago. 

 

14 minutes ago, MatterEaterLad said:

We could create a whole thread of "selling too soon" regrets.

Mine would be selling three 9.9 Miller DDs about a year ago. 

 

[oldmilwaukee6er]

Only 3 installments of $33.32! Wait, what? 

Even comic hoodies be bubblin' 

[oldmilwaukee6er]

42 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

So what's going to happen when the world re-opens and we can all travel again?  

Me, I'm taking some trips.  

Think about it.

Agreed. I've already booked my next two (Montana and Miami).

I got round trip from Milwaukee to Kalispell MT for $298; have not seen prices like that since I was in college in the mid-late 90s. 

I know for myself... it's been absolutely eye-opening how much discretionary money I spend on dining and drinking out. Shocking. 

I am addicted to saving that money now and the lady and I have an ongoing discussion about former ways of life to which we're reluctant to go back. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by oldmilwaukee6er

[sfcityduck]

2 minutes ago, oldmilwaukee6er said:

Agreed. I've already booked my next two (Montana and Miami).

I got round trip from Milwaukee to Kalispell MT for $298; have not seen prices like that since I was in college in the mid-late 90s. 

I know for myself... it's been absolutely eye-opening how much discretionary money I spend on dining and drinking out. Shocking. 

I am addicted to saving that money now and the lady and I have an ongoing discussion about former ways of life to which we're reluctant to go back. 

Yep.  I save @ $250 a week on parking and lunch just by not going to the office.  And that doesn't count money I might spend having drinks after work.

[oldmilwaukee6er]

35 minutes ago, Shrevvy said:

We had to wait 45 minutes to get into the Westlake show a couple weeks ago. It is sort of funny. They were trying to keep the sales floor less crowded for social distancing, yet 150 of us were standing six inches apart in the hotel lobby waiting to get in...  I am ready to hit another show as soon as I can. 

I am much less so. Ready to return. Already, pre-Covid, I had fallen out of 1 local show due to overcrowding, this was the old Mighty Con.

My strategy has always been show up later and pick at my discretion because I didn't have a lot of competition for the things that I buy. 

Now the competition is up and I'm just not sure I'm ready for the butts to nuts picking of old. 

[EastEnd1]

Have to say, I'm not sure if this is a bubble or actually a seismic shift.  In my recently retired state, I have CNBC on a fair amount and I'm seeing a lot more chatter lately about investing in "alternative assets".  The other day, they gave a good 15-20 minutes to the CEO of a start-up called ALT.  The company is apparently trying to set up a "stock exchange" for alternative assets to make trading of ownership interests in these assets as easy as buying and selling stocks.  They're starting with trading cards (sport and non-sport) and are apparently attracting some serious wall street attention and money.  I'm sure they're not the only outfit trying to get into the space... streamlining processes and inefficiencies in business transactions is a classic wealth generator (think Amazon or what CGC and Ebay did for comic books).  It's possible that the pandemic (along with the rapid market recovery) has driven some bored rich people to invest in other non-traditional assets.  But it may also be that this early buying is on its way to achieving enough critical mass to spur wall street to do what it does... jump into, or even create, new infant markets that show serious growth potential.  And if wall street does jump into this in a big way, I think we've barely scratched the surface with the price increases seen thus far.  Will be interesting to watch...

[thunsicker]

1 hour ago, Shrevvy said:

I don't usually regret sales, but I sold my GSX1 several years ago. I looked for months to find the whitest CGC 9.8 I could find. I bought it from Metro for peak or above GPA at the time ($4k or $6k, I can't remember and I don't want to look it up - I've been having a good day so far ). It was the best 9.8 copy I had seen. I ultimately sold it for around what I paid for. I tried selling it on the boards. Lots of interest, but no real takers. I ended up selling it off boards. I tried finding my sales thread for the book, but I am terrible with the search function here. A 9.8 closed on CL last night for $67,900. I should not have just looked...

https://www.cgccomics.com/boards/topic/350003-giant-size-x-men-1-cgc-98-white-pages/

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

paper value. meaningless long term unless your plan was to sell the house in the short term or use it to take out HELOCs and live off the equity.

that's why i was unphased in 2008-2012 by this stuff. I bought at the end of 2006. I had no intention of selling any time soon.

of course, that is the opposite of comic flippers.... If people laying out $20K for a nice IH 181 are doing so as keepers/collectors want a cool iconic book for the long haul, there is hope

Agree 100%! I was unphased as well other than the losing value overnight thingy. I planned on living at the house. Which I did and still am. Now the thing is grossly overvalued. So that means another bubble. Rentals are hard to find around here. Expensive and stingy when they are found.

I want cool iconic books too but even if I had twenty gees, I wouldn't spend it on a 9.6 IH 181. 9.0 would be satisfactory. I have learned not to be greedy. For some reason, my like can turn into a Tex Avery "Droopy" cartoon suddenly and for no particular reason. So many books I could buy for $20k. I couldn't confine myself to just the one book. I would "diversify". LOL!

[Randall Ries]

12 minutes ago, EastEnd1 said:

Have to say, I'm not sure if this is a bubble or actually a seismic shift.  In my recently retired state, I have CNBC on a fair amount and I'm seeing a lot more chatter lately about investing in "alternative assets".  The other day, they gave a good 15-20 minutes to the CEO of a start-up called ALT.  The company is apparently trying to set up a "stock exchange" for alternative assets to make trading of ownership interests in these assets as easy as buying and selling stocks.  They're starting with trading cards (sport and non-sport) and are apparently attracting some serious wall street attention and money.  I'm sure they're not the only outfit trying to get into the space... streamlining processes and inefficiencies in business transactions is a classic wealth generator (think Amazon or what CGC and Ebay did for comic books).  It's possible that the pandemic (along with the rapid market recovery) has driven some bored rich people to invest in other non-traditional assets.  But it may also be that this early buying is on its way to achieving enough critical mass to spur wall street to do what it does... jump into, or even create, new infant markets that show serious growth potential.  And if wall street does jump into this in a big way, I think we've barely scratched the surface with the price increases seen thus far.  Will be interesting to watch...

I don't think I like that at all. It's an interesting concept but I don't know if I want corporate suits controlling EVERYTHING about a very neat hobby.

[Shrevvy]

12 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

https://www.cgccomics.com/boards/topic/350003-giant-size-x-men-1-cgc-98-white-pages/

Thank you! I was hoping someone might find the thread for me (half the reason I posted about it). Looks like my memory was faulty and the sale did occur to a board member. I was really hoping the pics would still be there as I cannot find the scans on my computer.

[InfantTerrible]

325-Billions going to American's pockets in recent weeks, even if tiny portion of that going to collectibles, it will still affect this industry

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stimulus-checks-irs-status

..and more still coming

[Randall Ries]

53 minutes ago, oldmilwaukee6er said:

Only 3 installments of $33.32! Wait, what? 

Even comic hoodies be bubblin' 

Do any serious collectors have one of these? I wouldn't be caught dead in one myself. I always looked upon skull, dream catcher and wolfie t-shirts as sort of embarrassing. I mean yeah if you like that, it's fine. Just a little too loud for me, I guess. Plus, I don't want to be a walking billboard for Coke, Pepsi, Doritos or anything that males money for someone else.

A friend gave me a bunch of clothing with his company logo emblazoned across the front. I like the guy but I wear my own company shirt. I don't need people coming up to me asking for HIS business card, you know?