The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Ride the Tiger]

I think its time to do a little market manipulation in the other direction. Start selling your friends a bunch of key books at really low prices so that everyone thinks the boom is coming.

[joeypost]

Nothing lasts forever. 

[Randall Ries]

3 hours ago, KCOComics said:

Just to be clear, pop pop never put a dime in my pocket. 

My father was a construction worker and and my mother worked a million jobs from day care companies to bar tender. 

No one paid for me to go to school and I grew up landscaping and working construction. I worked full time to pay my own way through college and I got a job at a big company and have worked hard every day to climb the ladder one foot at a time. 

I learned about investing, that's all. It's not for rich people, it's for everyone. You need a trustworthy source to learn from and you need to trust that time is on your side.  Then get boring. 

 

Also - don't take your investment advice on comic book forums 😂

Right. Apologies if you took it like I was saying ALL people who say they are self made aren't. Not so. A client I have built his trucking company out of the ashes of bankruptcy and divorce.

Around here, there is an element that constantly points out how they are self made, but it's a small town. And USUALLY, when someone keeps bringing it up, they aren't self made. Which is the case with these guys. They absolutely had help from old money or in laws. Talking about money is tacky anyway. I have always hated it.

I was advised to invest in the weed industry. Ground floor stuff. I'm glad I didn't. There is a glut now. Invest in one of its peripherals if I'm going to invest. Pipes, bongs, papers, pouches.

[KCOComics]

1 hour ago, Darkowl said:

Like I said, the math isn’t necessarily wrong, but the math does only work when applied to certain investments, and situations. It’s a general formula that ignores several variables. 

It fails to take into consideration the number of people who can’t afford to wait for their investments to make a come back.The 2008 housing crash is a prime example of that. 

If people had held onto their money, instead of dumping it into a market that was about to take a nose dive, so many of them wouldn’t have had to claim bankruptcy, go on unemployment, or go into even further debt just so they could attend college for the second time in their life.  Not to mention the severe stress and depression people underwent due to their financial struggles.

Was it worth the risk? 

I’m sure many of them will tell you that it wasn’t, because the reality is that not everyone has the time or the means to ride out those kinds of waves. Some waves are just too big to ride out. 

And what about businesses who have gone under due to illegal corporate activities?

I actually used to work for an investment company who robbed millions from their customers (unbeknownst to me at the time). Do you really think those poor people got their money back after the Feds shut them down? 
 

Or what about certain comic books that have tanked, never to have seen a return even remotely close to their peak? I love using Peter Panzerfaust as an example, because it shows that exactly what  happens when something is driven up by sheer speculation. That book shot up in value FAST!  It used to sell for over 1K, because people had their fingers crossed that it was going to be the next WD1. But guess what? It’s a $100 book now.

Are you really going to suggest that people should have just held onto their copies because playing the long, boring game is the key? 

That kind of math just doesn’t hold up in every situation, and using it as a “one size fits all” approach will clearly result in some ramifications.

Your point is taken and I'll avoid giving financial advice in the future. 

 

As it relates to comic books, I guess I never worried about selling to soon or needing to get my money out of them. 

I've sold books that have sky rocketed recently. But I always put the $$ into other comics. Not sure if I've won or lost, but I've enjoyed the heck of the hobby. 

As for the bubble, I truly don't know what to make of it. 

I agree that this is different from what happened in the 90s, so I'm not ready to raise alarms about history repeating itself.I also think people have been sitting at home, unable to travel, many saving money, and that's what has driven the collectible market. 

As we head into the summer and vaccinations keep rolling out, there will be pent up demand for travel and shows doing things we haven't done in a long time. 

That means money will be diverted out of the hobby. Perhaps it won't lead to a crash, but I suspect things will slow down and eventually return to a more normal cycle. 

I can tell you, I never saw this coming! It's unfortunate to get priced out of certain books, but I'll still find ways to enjoy this hobby no matter where it goes. 

 

[Wally's Comics]

Pretty soon we'll see bums on street corners with signs that read " Will work for Marvel Comics Drek"...

 

[KCOComics]

2 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Right. Apologies if you took it like I was saying ALL people who say they are self made aren't. Not so. A client I have built his trucking company out of the ashes of bankruptcy and divorce.

Around here, there is an element that constantly points out how they are self made, but it's a small town. And USUALLY, when someone keeps bringing it up, they aren't self made. Which is the case with these guys. They absolutely had help from old money or in laws. Talking about money is tacky anyway. I have always hated it.

I was advised to invest in the weed industry. Ground floor stuff. I'm glad I didn't. There is a glut now. Invest in one of its peripherals if I'm going to invest. Pipes, bongs, papers, pouches.

No apologies necessary.  

 

[Darkowl]

3 hours ago, the blob said:

While I don't know about certain hyped markets in Florida and Las Vegas, haven't most things bounced back? The housing crash was aided and abetted by an incredible amount of outright fraudulent mortgage financing, not just loose credit, which I don't think was fully appreciated by folks at the time.

Anyway, I bought in December 2006. My house went up another 10% before the crash brought my house down to purchase price give or take 5%. It is now worth 2X that (and was pre-pandemic as well). So, while you can go wrong short term in real estate, long term is another issue, although some areas do die horrible deaths that can take a long time, if ever, to recover from, and yes, some pricing in those crazy bubble times in Florida might not be duplicated... I am not sure where the market is now down there. At the time I really wanted to buy a cheap condo in Miami or somewhere, but just didn't have $50-75K in cash sitting around, the credit score to get another mortgage, or the resources to pay HOA/taxes on a place I couldn't rent and would only use a little. oh well.

I wish i had money during the crash to buy real estate (or anything), but I was squeezed with a lower paying job, young kids, etc. then. every month was a scramble to pay bills. oh well.

Correct. Most things in real estate have bounced back (for now). And If you were fortunate enough to have been able to ride out the 2008 wave, then you’d definitely be seeing your returns now. This is where the “play the long, boring game” notion comes from. 

But my point is that not everyone is fortunate to ride it out. I personally would have had to file bankruptcy had I invested right before the crash, and it just wouldn’t have been worth it. Not to mention the amount of time I would have had to wait in order to break even on my investment.  I just feel like that’s time and money that could be utilized in much better ways, and why I don’t always agree that investing at the worst times is better than not investing at all. It’s an impractical blanket statement for many, imo. 

 

[Poekaymon]

2 hours ago, KCOComics said:

Your point is taken and I'll avoid giving financial advice in the future. 

 

Cant give advice, no matter how based in fact, if people are simply unwilling to receive it. It’s why we have anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers and all the rest. Can give it a shot, if you’re feeling charitable, then chuckle and move on. 

[Poekaymon]

21 minutes ago, Bluemedgroup said:

Ok, not sure why ASM 129 is taking off.  No movie rumours, no show rumours.  Nothing special on the horizon to explain its recent price explosion. 

It doesn’t need any movies or shows or rumors. It’s a major key, and ASM in general has done very well. The market as a whole is going up, and things like X-Men 266 and NM 98 are doubling or tripling in value. Would be more surprising if major keys like ASM 129 were not going up. 

[Darkowl]

5 hours ago, the blob said:

"Everyone knows that real estate goes up and down, and there’s a proven track record for it. Ironically, no one saw the 2008 crash coming, but by your logic, people would be just fine today if they had held onto their property, because we’re now at a high (was it worth the wait?)"

Almost everyone saw the 2008 crash coming. They just didn't necessarily appreciate the scope of it or how long the funk would last. Or they weren't in a position to do anything about it. Believe me, here and on the lawyer chat boards I used to inhabit, there was plenty of talk about all the impending crashes.As for "holding on to your property"... if you need a place to live, isn't that what most people did? 

The people who primarily got burned (and lost homes) were buying properties they could not afford in the first place or could only afford if their circumstances never changed (two earners continued earning 2 incomes). $60K family income taking on a $500K mortgage only made possible by a lot of creating b.s. on the loan application put in by the mortgage broker. I don't know if these people thought they could flip and make a profit in a rising market or just keep ion refinancing as prices went up and use the cash back to pay the mortgage or whatever, I have no idea. I admit I miscalculated my future cost of living and future income a bit when i took on my mortgage, so things were rough, but we managed. But seriously, I had a cousin who thought I was an insufficiently_thoughtful_person for having equity in my home. His view was that I should refinance to the maximum I could every year or two and extract every bit of equity out of it. That would have left me with  a mortgage in 2008 I could never pay, rather than one I could struggle with. And no doubt the cash I had pulled out of the house would have been spent on B.S. or not invested all that well. I didn't take financial advise from him given that I know he had declared bankruptcy three times!

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if more shows opening up in the summer impacts things. 

Right before the crash I was living in St. George, UT. A small town that was experiencing tremendous growth. There was a massive influx of people moving there from all over, but mainly from Califoirnia.

To accommodate this new growth, construction companies worked around the clock to build, build, build. Just constant building. Not to mention all of the other construction workers who decided to venture out and start their own business.  And with that came electricians, plumbers, etc. Lots of work for everyone to go around. Houses were being built and sold within record time to accommodate this new feeding frenzy. Housing was where the money was, and NO ONE knew that this was the calm before the storm. 

But by the time reality hit everyone in the face, it was far too late. Businesses went under. Jobs were lost.  People could no longer afford their mortgage, so they had to move in with family and friends in order to stay afloat. It was hard times for many.

I'd like to think that if mostly everyone in that town saw the crash coming, they wouldn't have purchased real estate when they did. I mean, who in the right mind would?

But people didn't see the crash coming. They boarded the Titanic with optimism, and the dream that they too would be able see some profitable returns on their new investment. 

The Titanic sank, and so did the 2008 housing market. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Darkowl

[Darkowl]

1 hour ago, Poekaymon said:

Cant give advice, no matter how based in fact, if people are simply unwilling to receive it. It’s why we have anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers and all the rest. Can give it a shot, if you’re feeling charitable, then chuckle and move on. 

The problem is that you're using a formula that's been used for stocks and real estate, and attempting to apply it to the current comic book market, which has gone completely off the radar. It's as unpredictable as it gets. Not to mention that comic books and stocks share a very, very different history and pattern. 

So, it's not the facts that some people (including myself) are taking issue with, it's how you're using those facts in attempt to shape and mold your "one size fits all" assessment, which I really don't agree with.

But hey, feel free to lump me in the same category as anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, and all the rest. Surely, that's the place for anyone who disagrees with you. 

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by Darkowl

[Poekaymon]

28 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

The problem is that you're using a formula that's been used for stocks and real estate, and attempting to apply it to the current comic book market, which has gone completely off the radar. It's as unpredictable as it gets. Not to mention that comic books and stocks share a very, very different history and pattern. 

So, it's not the facts that some people (including myself) are taking issue with, it's how you're using those facts in attempt to shape and mold your "one size fits all" assessment, which I really don't agree with.

But hey, feel free to lump me in the same category as anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, and all the rest. Surely, that's the place for anyone who disagrees with you. 

 

It's common these days for people to ignore empirical data in favor of "instinct."  That's why I mention those other camps.  It's all the same, really.  

Anyway, I thought it was so obvious, and fundamental to the point, that it didn't even need to be stated that investment advice only works for people with the ability to invest in the first place.  Unsalted peanuts are a healthy snack, but you are absolutely correct that people with peanut allergies should not eat them.  Although it is a historical constant that the market goes up, it does on occasion go down, and if you can't handle a temporary downturn, like 2008, say if you're on a fixed income or are having trouble making ends meet, then, yes, you should just stick with a savings account.  I sort of assumed that, since those people really shouldn't be buying expensive comic books either.  For everyone else, not investing because of fear that a crash is coming is actually demonstrably and quantifiably financially irresponsible. 

That's a paragraph more than I told myself I was going to commit to this discussion, so I now yield the floor.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Poekaymon

[thehumantorch]

3 hours ago, Ride the Tiger said:

I think its time to do a little market manipulation in the other direction. Start selling your friends a bunch of key books at really low prices so that everyone thinks the boom is coming.

I think that's what I've been doing the last 20 years 

[Bludriver]

I cant afford to buy high grade books so I usually buy low grade books in lots on ebay as I usually get more for my money than buying them singularly. I noticed that over the past few months it is harder than ever before to win any auctions. It was getting harder to win last year, but not this bad. I no longer even try bidding on ASM or X-Men books anymore as they go for way more than I am willing to pay.

 

[Darkowl]

16 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

It's common these days for people to ignore empirical data in favor of "instinct."  That's why I mention those other camps.  It's all the same, really.  

Anyway, I thought it was so obvious, and fundamental to the point, that it didn't even need to be stated that investment advice only works for people with the ability to invest in the first place.  Unsalted peanuts are a healthy snack, but you are absolutely correct that people with peanut allergies should not eat them.  Although it is a historical constant that the market goes up, it does on occasion go down, and if you can't handle a temporary downturn, like 2008, say if you're on a fixed income or are having trouble making ends meet like, then, yes, you should just stick with a savings account.  I sort of assumed that, since those people really shouldn't be buying expensive comic books either.  For everyone else, not investing because of fear that a crash is coming is actually financial irresponsible.  

That's a paragraph more than I told myself I was going to commit to this discussion, so I now yield the floor.

 

I agree. It might be best for you to yield the floor, especially since you seem to be completely incapable of distinguishing the comic book market from stocks and real estate, and also since you clearly can't handle people disagreeing with your POV (darn those flat-earthers!!!).

Edited March 25, 2021 by Darkowl

[Randall Ries]

3 hours ago, Darkowl said:

Correct. Most things in real estate have bounced back (for now). And If you were fortunate enough to have been able to ride out the 2008 wave, then you’d definitely be seeing your returns now. This is where the “play the long, boring game” notion comes from. 

But my point is that not everyone is fortunate to ride it out. I personally would have had to file bankruptcy had I invested right before the crash, and it just wouldn’t have been worth it. Not to mention the amount of time I would have had to wait in order to break even on my investment.  I just feel like that’s time and money that could be utilized in much better ways, and why I don’t always agree that investing at the worst times is better than not investing at all. It’s an impractical blanket statement for many, imo. 

 

If it were a level playing field it'd be one thing. But that would suggest <GASP> socialism and we can't have that. Fairness and decency mingling with our capitalism just won't DO.

It's an old hat trick to try to entice people of little or moderate means to "join in the fun". ("NOBODY calls me CHICKEN, Needles! NOBODY!") If you are already loaded, losing ten Kay isn't a big deal. If that's all you have is 10k and you lose it all PLUS have to pay fees and a broker, that's like the end of the world. No thanks. Then, you get to go home and tell your wife you invested the kids college money behind her back. And it NEVER turns into one of those "Full House moments where everyone learns a lesson and all is good. The nice thing about being close to broke all the time was it showed me how valuable money can be and how fleeting it is. Even if I were Daddy Warbucks, I wouldn't toss money around and treat it with a devil-may-care attitude.

Plus the whole peer pressure thing. "Do you WANT to be poor all your life?" Of course not. But if you don't have money to spare in the first place, it's like playing D&D for the first time and the Dungeon Master wants to teach you a lesson:

"Roll the dice"

"Ok" <ROLL!> "Six. What's that mean?"

"Let's see. You got stabbed in the face by a Magic Bunny. You're dead."

"That was my first roll! I don't even understand what an effing Magic Bunny IS!"

"Too bad. Do your research next time."

"Do you know how to change a flat tire?"

"Well, NO!"

"Too bad. Well, I'm going outside for a smoke! Might take awhile."

[Randall Ries]

35 minutes ago, Bludriver said:

I cant afford to buy high grade books so I usually buy low grade books in lots on ebay as I usually get more for my money than buying them singularly. I noticed that over the past few months it is harder than ever before to win any auctions. It was getting harder to win last year, but not this bad. I no longer even try bidding on ASM or X-Men books anymore as they go for way more than I am willing to pay.

 

Prudent. I buy one book at a time from Greg Reece or a reputable dealer. Fair prices and no demons paying x5 for a Warlock book.

[Randall Ries]

3 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

To answer your question:  No.  The punisher hoodies are popular right now because the Punisher logo is being co-opted by white supremacist hate groups.  That hoodie, with the punisher logo and American flag (Punisher is a "patriotic" hero like CA now?) seems to be catering to that misuse of the logo.  Bleeding cool has been highlighting this problem for more than a year:

https://www.facebook.com/153368328016421/posts/marvels-punisher-skull-now-used-for-qanon-recruitment/2986613014691924/

https://bleedingcool.com/comics/punisher-creator-gerry-conway-speak-qanon-punisher-logo/

https://bleedingcool.com/comics/punisher-skull-worn-by-qanon-mayor-of-sequim-washington-in-meetings/

It's been in the mainstream press more recently:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/the-punisher-jon-bernthal-capitol-hill-rioters-disney-marvel-hero-skull-symbol-controversy-220259977.html

Ah. Thanks. I was unaware of that. I have gotten to the end of my patience with the media and the endless fighting and rampant stupidity of...well... just about everyone. I dumped cable tv. People who deserve to be punished aren't. It's depressing. I don't need more of that. I'll deal with people like I always have. One at a time. And really, it doesn't impact me all that much if I don't know about it. See? Because if I KNOW about it, it sort of insinuates I have to be some social justice warrior and pick a side. So, I'll always be someones enemy. We saw the BLM movement and at the beginning, for the first few hours, it WAS a protest about cops killing minorities. Great! I'm behind that. But the 4th hour? It was co-opted by goons, sociopaths, who like keeping people "in their places", the media, the t-shirt, hat and slogan vendors and then it's no longer pure. It's a cacophony of a bunch of other people with their particular ax to grind. I hate it.

So, what I DO is treat everyone decently. I still hold doors. I'll carry stuff for old people to their cars. I say "How's it going?" to people in line waiting to by the swill they loosely call "coffee". You know: Carry my weight. Do what I should be doing. Not ABOUT to wear anything that might tip my political or social hand. I don't need to be part of an affiliate to be decent to others. If you encounter me, you won't be able to say "That dude made my day worse!"

[Poekaymon]

19 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Prudent. I buy one book at a time from Greg Reece or a reputable dealer. Fair prices and no demons paying x5 for a Warlock book.

Hopefully all those eBay bidders don't find out about Greg Reece!

[Darkowl]

19 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

If it were a level playing field it'd be one thing. But that would suggest <GASP> socialism and we can't have that. Fairness and decency mingling with our capitalism just won't DO.

It's an old hat trick to try to entice people of little or moderate means to "join in the fun". ("NOBODY calls me CHICKEN, Needles! NOBODY!") If you are already loaded, losing ten Kay isn't a big deal. If that's all you have is 10k and you lose it all PLUS have to pay fees and a broker, that's like the end of the world. No thanks. Then, you get to go home and tell your wife you invested the kids college money behind her back. And it NEVER turns into one of those "Full House moments where everyone learns a lesson and all is good. The nice thing about being close to broke all the time was it showed me how valuable money can be and how fleeting it is. Even if I were Daddy Warbucks, I wouldn't toss money around and treat it with a devil-may-care attitude.

Plus the whole peer pressure thing. "Do you WANT to be poor all your life?" Of course not. But if you don't have money to spare in the first place, it's like playing D&D for the first time and the Dungeon Master wants to teach you a lesson:

"Roll the dice"

"Ok" <ROLL!> "Six. What's that mean?"

"Let's see. You got stabbed in the face by a Magic Bunny. You're dead."

"That was my first roll! I don't even understand what an effing Magic Bunny IS!"

"Too bad. Do your research next time."

"Do you know how to change a flat tire?"

"Well, NO!"

"Too bad. Well, I'm going outside for a smoke! Might take awhile."

The peer pressure is definitely real.

My girlfriend (at the time) invited me to go to some investing meeting that some of her friends were putting on, and after the presentation was over, they asked me if I wanted in. I told them that I couldn't afford to invest at the time, and their response was, "You can't afford not to invest in this!". 

Peer pressure at its finest!