Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Dark Knight]

I'd like to add this as well, but in my opinion, X-Men #1 might be the major key silver age book that is very difficult to find an exceptional copy with great eye appeal.  Most have suffered from cover tanning, yellowing, staining, marvel chipping, cover fading, etc. either one of those or a combination of all!  Unlike other keys such as Hulk 1, JIM 83, TOS 39, FF 5 and a few others are "easier" to find copies with great eye appeal.  It could be because X-Men #1 has a white front cover?  Possibly... But, FF 1 and DD 1 to me with having white covers as well are not as tough! 

It took me longer to find the perfect X-Men #1 copy to add to my collection than any of the other key books I mentioned.  Just my 2c.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Dark Knight

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:37 PM, Dark Knight said:

I'd like to add this as well, but in my opinion, X-Men #1 might be the major key silver age book that is very difficult to find an exceptional copy with great eye appeal.  Most have suffered from cover tanning, yellowing, staining, marvel chipping, cover fading, etc. either one of those or a combination of all!  Unlike other keys such as Hulk 1, JIM 83, TOS 39, FF 5 and a few others are "easier" to find copies with great eye appeal.  It could be because X-Men #1 has a white front cover?  Possibly... But, FF 1 and DD 1 to me with having white covers as well are not as tough! 

It took me longer to find the perfect X-Men #1 copy to add to my collection than any of the other key books I mentioned.  Just my 2c.

I think most of these books have their issues.  With FF 1 or DD 1 (or X-Men 1), there are definitely copies with brighter whites and others that are a bit more cream-colored.  Hulk 1 is a dark cover that's notorious not only for the usual color-breaking spine stress lines, but also for ugly color touch removal.  Jim 83 is one of those powder-blue covers that can look really faded (almost gray) or a nice bright blue depending on the copy.  With TOS 39, colors aren't usually an issue but some people get obsessed about the centering (is there blue visible under the table? is the close quotation mark visible along the right edge?).  With AF 15 (which you didn't mention), Marvel chipping is extraordinarily common and some copies have a sort-of "smudged" look in the gray areas.

It's an OCD hobby, and any high-value book is going to have specific things that collectors look for to distinguish the copies with the best eye appeal.

[Microchip]

On 4/30/2023 at 12:31 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

It's an OCD hobby, and any high-value book is going to have specific things that collectors look for to distinguish the copies with the best eye appeal.

The grade is just the beginning of the story, and thats a very good thing.  

It shows all the slab nay sayers, that the nuance in book grading is still very much alive, and is strongly represented in the market, well after the book has been graded and slabbed.

Pokemon cards have 4 different grades pertaining to the condition, if CGC (comics) went down this road on grading, they could double that at least if they so chose without even trying.  

In the meantime, the buyers are making very calculated buying decisions on books, taking all factors into consideration.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by Microchip

[alexgross.com]

On 4/29/2023 at 3:24 PM, Roger66 said:

Faded covers are simply a big knock if not a $ drag on a final auction price and GPA does not and cannot have an asterisk next to the sales' data noting "ugly copy."  When you only focus on GPA recent sales of big keys like X1 without having a fuller picture by doing your due diligence in finding the actual sale - you are often doing yourself an injustice whether as a buyer or a seller because value is very often about eye-appeal  with comics not just the technical grade assigned. I, for example, loathe faded covers  on fairly common keys and would never bid on one for my PC.  My 2-cents.    

amen to the idea of researching actual sales results including the images. also, GPA has broken out faded books into their own category, at least some of the time, so as not to totally contaminate auction averages. sometimes they need to be notified that a sale was a faded copy. but i've been impressed with their doing this in a timely way. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by alexgross.com

[DC#]

Here are some select results from the April/May ComicLink Focused Auction - Session 1A and 1B.    Good chance this is the only recap I do for this auction.....

Maybe a few more "green shoots" this time and results do feel a bit stronger than the March CL auction.   But a lot of books bouncing around still....hard to say if they are finding their footing.  

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

Despite the changing winds in the market, there are still guys out there on eBay trying to price books like it's 2021.

Hulk #117 is a random run-filler book that I'm looking for in 9.6 WP.  Haven't seen one come around, but I do keep track of other 9.6s to get a sense of the market.  A 9.6 OW/W sold for $288 on Heritage last August, and an OW copy sold for $274 this past February.  Then this OW/W copy closed at $357 last week:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115775482070

Sure enough, the winning bidder is one of these eBay flipper guys who immediately relisted the book for $682.50:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115793697494

I have no idea why this dealer (from whom, for the record, I have bought books in the past when desperate) thinks it's a good business model to buy books on widely viewed public auction sites for what is essentially the upper bound of their actual FMV in a down market, and then mark them up by nearly 100% -- but it's a pattern I've seen him and others follow repeatedly for the past several years.  Seems like a great way to take a bath, or at the very least have your money tied up in inventory that you simply can't sell because you are intentionally pricing way outside the realm of what's reasonable.

[lou_fine]

On 4/28/2023 at 12:24 PM, mjoeyoung said:

4.0 grade went  $2051 low in 2019, then $2300 in 2020, then $2475 in 2021, then $3806 in 2022 and last sale of $2520 in 2023.  I would define that $3806 as "off-trend."

I would tend to agree and define that $3,806 as a FOMO driven outlier and should pretty much be ignored for longer term trending purposes. 

[Stefan_W]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:28 PM, DC# said:

Here are some select results from the April/May ComicLink Focused Auction - Session 1A and 1B.    Good chance this is the only recap I do for this auction.....

Maybe a few more "green shoots" this time and results do feel a bit stronger than the March CL auction.   But a lot of books bouncing around still....hard to say if they are finding their footing.  

Thanks again for sharing this

I think the biggest eye-popping gains from this auction were for Stan Lee signed modern books. There were a couple that went for double or more compared to their previous sale listed in GPA. Those books are still super strong in the currently auction based on the ones that have closed so far. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/4/2023 at 10:08 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Despite the changing winds in the market, there are still guys out there on eBay trying to price books like it's 2021.

Hulk #117 is a random run-filler book that I'm looking for in 9.6 WP.  Haven't seen one come around, but I do keep track of other 9.6s to get a sense of the market.  A 9.6 OW/W sold for $288 on Heritage last August, and an OW copy sold for $274 this past February.  Then this OW/W copy closed at $357 last week:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115775482070

Sure enough, the winning bidder is one of these eBay flipper guys who immediately relisted the book for $682.50:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115793697494

I have no idea why this dealer (from whom, for the record, I have bought books in the past when desperate) thinks it's a good business model to buy books on widely viewed public auction sites for what is essentially the upper bound of their actual FMV in a down market, and then mark them up by nearly 100% -- but it's a pattern I've seen him and others follow repeatedly for the past several years.  Seems like a great way to take a bath, or at the very least have your money tied up in inventory that you simply can't sell because you are intentionally pricing way outside the realm of what's reasonable.

And how many of these speculators are still buying books on Comic Link and Comic Connect, etc. at these types of prices in the hopes of flipping them as prices return to 2021 levels?  How many people are investors "buying the dip" in prices, again thinking there will be a short time until the prices bounce back? 

I'm sure there are also a lot of FOMO buyers, worried that prices may go up.  This goes hand in hand with some pent up demand from buyers who saw previously out of reach books fall back within reason.

This is how you get a plateau after a deflation in values.  If there are enough of these types of these people and they keep buying prices may go up from here, if there are more that believe that values are still too high...

[VintageComics]

On 5/4/2023 at 7:17 PM, mjoeyoung said:

And how many of these speculators are still buying books on Comic Link and Comic Connect, etc. at these types of prices in the hopes of flipping them as prices return to 2021 levels?  How many people are investors "buying the dip" in prices, again thinking there will be a short time until the prices bounce back? 

I'm sure there are also a lot of FOMO buyers, worried that prices may go up.  This goes hand in hand with some pent up demand from buyers who saw previously out of reach books fall back within reason.

This is how you get a plateau after a deflation in values.  If there are enough of these types of these people and they keep buying prices may go up from here, if there are more that believe that values are still too high...

People are buying. Collectors are buying. Dealers are buying. 

I stated in this thread in January that many dealers I've spoken to either expect or are experiencing a bounceback. We shouldn't be surprised. That's a normal market behavior that we'[ve seen every time: Steady climb, big increase, pullback, plateau, climb again. 

@DC#'s charts seem to be showing that. 

I continue to auction books off and they continue to do reasonably well. Sure, a few bomb (especially books that shot up multiple in value in the space of a year) but the books that didn't shoot up overnight are still pulling @ GPA numbers or higher with some lower. 

And I've actually broken quite a few GPA records or almost met them with some of my books at Comiclink over the last few months. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by VintageComics

[lou_fine]

On 4/28/2023 at 4:13 PM, FormerReader said:

On 4/28/2023 at 3:34 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Interesting that X-MEN #1 took a big loss.  I guess the movie hype might have cooled down? 

The movie is years out and the book is overpriced. Once actual news starts coming out it should get a bump. For now the COVID bump needs to come back to reality.

Well, hasn't history shown us time and time again that any movie hyped related book is something for collectors to avoid like the plague unless you were either already in there long before the hype or a trader and lucky enough to be able to time the market just perfectly before the eventual collaspe comes.     

Edited May 5, 2023 by lou_fine

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/4/2023 at 5:35 PM, VintageComics said:

People are buying. Collectors are buying. Dealers are buying. 

I stated in this thread in January that many dealers I've spoken to either expect or are experiencing a bounceback. We shouldn't be surprised. That's a normal market behavior that we'[ve seen every time: Steady climb, big increase, pullback, plateau, climb again. 

@DC#'s charts seem to be showing that. 

I continue to auction books off and they continue to do reasonably well. Sure, a few bomb (especially books that shot up multiple in value in the space of a year) but the books that didn't shoot up overnight are still pulling @ GPA numbers or higher with some lower. 

And I've actually broken quite a few GPA records or almost met them with some of my books at Comiclink over the last few months. 

Sure people are buying, but what are they PAYING?  The great majority of books in the chart above are below the 90 day average, and these are for the most part the big keys in the market.  I don't see any reason why prices shouldn't continue falling from here.  From 2019 to the middle of 2022 values skyrocketed,  so why isn't it possible that values continue to unwind in a similar time frame?

I wouldn't rely solely on what would be considered "normal market behavior" here.  The economic conditions that got us to this point were highly abnormal. 100 year pandemic.  Stay at home orders.  $5 trillion dollars in stimulus. A huge runup in the stock market and crypto. Even now people are not required to make their student loan payments.

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market.  These might cause some trouble.

There is also a lot of psychology at play here.  Someone can look at today's values and think "Prices are 50% lower than 2021, now is the time to buy."  Others may say "Prices are still 100% higher than 2019, I'm going to wait until they come down more."  Each thought is equally valid.  Which thought becomes the prevailing wisdom?

Edited May 5, 2023 by mjoeyoung

[Nick Furious]

On 5/5/2023 at 3:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market.  These might cause some trouble.

I would say high inflation yes, high interest rates yes, higher housing costs yes (but that is regularly subsidized, as we saw with the government sanctioned non-payment of rent).  I think sustained high unemployment, recession and big stock market drop are unlikely in the US.  I think we've seen enough to realize that a fiat currency creates the opportunity for governing policy that allows unlimited deficit spending to avoid economic reality.  For the time being the US can deficit spend with a level of impunity that no other country enjoys.  I anticipate that the accelerated erosion of the dollar (not against other currencies, but against real goods) is more likely than big drops in the stock market or even in comic books.  I think it's more likely that in 5 years a $300 comic book may still be worth $300...but it will only buy $200 worth of today's groceries.  

[VintageComics]

On 5/5/2023 at 4:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Sure people are buying, but what are they PAYING?

Absolutely. 

On 5/5/2023 at 4:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I wouldn't rely solely on what would be considered "normal market behavior" here.  The economic conditions that got us to this point were highly abnormal. 100 year pandemic.  Stay at home orders.  $5 trillion dollars in stimulus. A huge runup in the stock market and crypto. Even now people are not required to make their student loan payments.

I find it amazing that I make a post that vaguely references these things. My posts are SO vague that most people wouldn't even recognize them for what they are.

And my posts get moderated within seconds or minutes because a few eagle eye'd enemies routinely go out of their way to try to get me moderated.

But you can openly talk about these forbidden topics and the post sits for days. 

Just A. M. A. Z. I. N. G. 

On 5/5/2023 at 4:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market.  These might cause some trouble.

There is also a lot of psychology at play here.  Someone can look at today's values and think "Prices are 50% lower than 2021, now is the time to buy."  Others may say "Prices are still 100% higher than 2019, I'm going to wait until they come down more."  Each thought is equally valid.  Which thought becomes the prevailing wisdom?

Meh. I'm well aware of all of these things, having done nothing but study them deeply for the past 3 years. 

Normal rules of economics stopped being applied almost 2 decades ago when the global economy crashed and entire countries went bankrupt. 

For many people it was devastating, but for others it was an opportunity of a lifetime to build generational wealth. 

What I learned is that when someone is losing money, someone else is making it. 

The world has always had it's major problems. It keeps chugging ahead. 

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by VintageComics

[lordbyroncomics]

I find it amazing that anyone could think this message board has cultivated "enemies" amongst older male comic collectors. 

People may disagree, they may debate, they may argue- but enemies. Right. You don't have enemies because you disagree on a message board. If you meet up to rumble in the parking lot of a convention center, it may be different. But no one's going to do that because it's stupid. And because it's easier to project snark and condescending tones behind a screen and make yourself believe you're influential enough to warrant enemies.

[VintageComics]

On 5/6/2023 at 12:11 AM, lordbyroncomics said:

I find it amazing that anyone could think this message board has cultivated "enemies" amongst older male comic collectors. 

People may disagree, they may debate, they may argue- but enemies. Right. You don't have enemies because you disagree on a message board. If you meet up to rumble in the parking lot of a convention center, it may be different. But no one's going to do that because it's stupid. And because it's easier to project snark and condescending tones behind a screen and make yourself believe you're influential enough to warrant enemies.

I find it amazing that you could think you know anything about the situation if you're not directly involved in it.

There is a small contingent of boardies who through great efforts make sure I get moderated for every single, little potential infraction even if the posts are not against the Terms of Service and they've been doing so consistently and aggressively for almost 3 years now. 

Meanwhile there are posts being made by other boardies that are clearly against the TOS that don't get moderated at all. 

Why do you think that is? 

Edited May 6, 2023 by VintageComics

[VintageComics]

On 5/6/2023 at 1:33 AM, Cat said:

You deserve to be banned for the disgusting insinuation you made about DJPinkPanther's passing being caused by your COVID conspirscy theory. 

I don't even care if I get modded, it's worth it to call out such a disgusting arsehole move. 

You deserve to be banned for the disgusting insinuation you made about me. 

I did no such thing. What are you talking about?

[ThothAmon]

Do you guys need to ruin this thread also with your inane back and forth? Cork it. 

[Courageous Cat]

uptight peeps in the room 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Courageous Cat

[ThothAmon]

On 5/6/2023 at 7:03 AM, Courageous Cat said:

uptight peeps