Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[lou_fine]

On 9/1/2023 at 6:08 PM, Tom789 said:

Small sample to support this.  Last week's Heritage auction of CGC-graded SA Spider-mans.  I was going to calculate a percentage down number and got lazy, but it's easy to see the market for this small sector, the most popular character by far, is still down.

Price = auction sale price including 20% buyer's premium; G.C. = GoCollect 12-month average selling price.  Apologies for the bad penmanship!

 

 

 

The reason for falling prices for these kinds of books may have a lot to do with the fact that they tend to show up in every single auction, with some having even multiple copies in the same auction.  

So, no real reason to go out of your way to big too high because if you miss this copy here, another one will be coming along before you know it.  

[Telegan]

On 9/1/2023 at 11:55 AM, bc said:

I've never had an issue with perceived shilling on Clink. There has been several times where I put in a max bid that was outrageously over FMV because I couldn't watch it in real time and really wanted the book.

Every one went for around FMV at the time, none of them came anywhere near my crazy bid.

-bc

The only time this would be dangerous is when another bidder decides to throw out their crazy bid because they also wanted that book badly enough.  I think this does happen on some comics.  I love CL's auctions (just won another book last night that I'd been looking for in a higher grade, but oh well - I'll take this one) because of the way bidding is done.  I never throw out a crazy bid, but I will go a bit above what I would normally pay if I want a book badly enough.  I'm too scared to throw a wild bid out there for the reason mentioned previously.

I've never thought there was shill bidding across the board on CL simply because I've watched both prices I thought were too much for comics and prices that were way below on other comics I thought they should go for.  The only place where I rarely win comics based on how I bid is on Heritage.  It's like no matter what I think is fair value there, I always get outbid. lol.  But it sure is fun watching those auctions and the comics that come up for sale.

On 9/1/2023 at 12:56 PM, buttock said:

Clink's method of bidding dissuades shilling to a degree.  Without being able to see some real-time behavior at the end of the auction, you have to just throw out something and hope that it sticks.  That's riskier than going up incrementally.

Maybe I don't understand, but if you have a comic you want, you assign a value to it.  Say $300.  Bid that.  Or go wild and bid $305.  Why would you ever throw something out something blindly and hope that it sticks?  I mean, I guess you could throw out $3000 on the comic and you'd win, but ... lol.  I generally have a "this is the most that I would pay for that comic" price and that's what I bid.  It's generally around FMV or maybe 10-15% higher.  If the bid wins, great - if it doesn't, oh well - move on to the next comic.

[bluehorseshoe]

On 9/1/2023 at 11:39 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This is an honest request for someone to explain DD #131 to me.

Here's tonight's result for a nice 9.8 WP copy:

A "Mark Jewelers insert" copy sold for even more on ComicConnect last week, skewing GoCollect's algorithm a bit (it shows FMV at $10,000, likely as a result).

So let's toss out the higher number since the book in question is a sort-of variant, and stick with $7,000+ as the current market for a 9.8 WP copy of the book.

I have a 9.6 WP copy that I bought for a little over $1,100 in April 2021, during the height of the market ... GoCollect shows recent sales in the $800-$1,500 range (that's actually a broad range) but let's say $1,100 is about right for a 9.6.  I might expect a 9.8 to be about double, maybe as much as $2,500+, but I saw a 9.8 WP copy with less than perfect centering go for over $4,500 on ComicLink in March, and I believe Dale Roberts sold a nicer 9.8 for $5,000+ soon after that.  Now we have this result at over $7,250.

So the market is apparently saying that a 9.8 is worth more than 6 times a 9.6?  I just don't get it.  There are 110 9.8 copies in the census, so it's not exactly rare, and while Bullseye is a good character he's not exactly A-list and he's already been used in the old Ben Affleck movie.  I'm really struggling to understand why this book is going for such high prices, which is why I've stayed on the sidelines and refused to upgrade my 9.6.

Basically I'm saying that if it were possible to "short" a comic, I'd be looking hard at this one.  I just cannot justify the going rate on this book and I can't see myself ever paying more than $3,000 max for a 9.8.

That is, unless someone can make a convincing case that I should.  What am I missing here?

Look closely at what you wrote:
 

‘’I have”

”I might expect”

”I saw”

”I believe”

”I just don’t get it”

”I’m really struggling to understand”

”Basically I’m saying”

”I just cannot justify the going rate”

”I can’t see myself ever paying more”

and finally: “What am I missing here?”

Seems like what you are missing are perspectives other than the one you completely, unconditionally, 100% rely upon: your own.

[DC#]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:00 PM, VintageComics said:

Sorry, meant to say a #1 CGC 9.8 sold for a record amount. 

Come on. This isn't our first rodeo. 

Page Quality, eye appeal, venue, visible defects. All of these things cause variations in price. 

Plus not every auction result CAN be the same. 

I think if you started a deep dive you'd say that there is far more rationale to why prices vary than not. 

Just to compare - the first copy below sold on Clink on 7/24 for $5100 which is in the zone for most of those GPA sales.   The second is the $7200 Clink sale from 9/1.   The 9/1 copy does have a slightly better wrap (and I mean a very slight)  in looking at the top of the 7/24 copy.   And there is that CVA stamp…..

At least two people thought there was enough difference to support a +40% premium.

And forgot that there were two more 9.8s in this Clink auction that closed on 8/29 - one WP at $4600 and one OW/WP with double cover that went for $4847.   

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by DC#

[buttock]

On 9/1/2023 at 11:04 PM, lou_fine said:

In total agreement with your view on CL's method of bidding and the reason why I don't care to participate in any of their auctions.    

Especially since I prefer to give myself some time for controlled and rational bidding throughout the entire auction till the end , instread of feeling the need to just toss out a blind Hail Mary bid at the end.  

I focus on the book, not the auction house.  It seems silly to punish myself because the auction house doesn't do things the way I prefer.  

[buttock]

On 9/2/2023 at 2:27 AM, Telegan said:

Maybe I don't understand, but if you have a comic you want, you assign a value to it.  Say $300.  Bid that.  Or go wild and bid $305.  Why would you ever throw something out something blindly and hope that it sticks?  I mean, I guess you could throw out $3000 on the comic and you'd win, but ... lol.  I generally have a "this is the most that I would pay for that comic" price and that's what I bid.  It's generally around FMV or maybe 10-15% higher.  If the bid wins, great - if it doesn't, oh well - move on to the next comic.

You're making the mistake that comic collectors are reasonable and rational.  

But more seriously, that works well for books that have some availability.  On Clink you see the crazy prices for books that come up once a decade or so.  

[KCOComics]

On 9/2/2023 at 8:35 AM, bluehorseshoe said:

Look closely at what you wrote:
 

‘’I have”

”I might expect”

”I saw”

”I believe”

”I just don’t get it”

”I’m really struggling to understand”

”Basically I’m saying”

”I just cannot justify the going rate”

”I can’t see myself ever paying more”

and finally: “What am I missing here?”

Seems like what you are missing are perspectives other than the one you completely, unconditionally, 100% rely upon: your own.

Not sure I understand the personal attack.  

Lou collects differently than I do. But I've read most of what he's written in this thread and in others.  

He's never come off like he lacks perspective and I've appreciated his perspective on the market and collecting in general.  

It seems unnecessary. 

[bluehorseshoe]

On 9/2/2023 at 11:56 AM, KCOComics said:

Not sure I understand the personal attack.  

Lou collects differently than I do. But I've read most of what he's written in this thread and in others.  

He's never come off like he lacks perspective and I've appreciated his perspective on the market and collecting in general.  

It seems unnecessary. 

I pointed out that a different perspective than one's own might be worth having a look at from time to time.  Your sensitivity issues related to what I wrote are noted however. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/2/2023 at 8:35 AM, bluehorseshoe said:

Look closely at what you wrote:
 

‘’I have”

”I might expect”

”I saw”

”I believe”

”I just don’t get it”

”I’m really struggling to understand”

”Basically I’m saying”

”I just cannot justify the going rate”

”I can’t see myself ever paying more”

and finally: “What am I missing here?”

Seems like what you are missing are perspectives other than the one you completely, unconditionally, 100% rely upon: your own.

My entire post was a request for additional perspectives, so that I could learn something.  Should be obvious to anyone who's not looking to cause trouble.

[wiparker824]

On 9/2/2023 at 1:32 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

My entire post was a request for additional perspectives, so that I could learn something.  Should be obvious to anyone who's not looking to cause trouble.

oh it was obvious to most us and I appreciated seeing something I missed in the CL auction and your perspective... but yeah you literally ended with “what am I missing here?”. Which is a pretty direct way of asking others for their perspectives to connect the dots.

I don’t understand the hostility in this thread sometimes. None of us understand or know the future of the market - we are all just shooting the mess talking about the market and what we are seeing. 

[southern cross]

The hostility,  for me is if I don't give a spoon about a book then it sells pennies on the dollar for FMV.

If I bid on a book I want to win I always pay the iron price.

What's up with that 

Edited September 2, 2023 by southern cross

[DC#]

Here is a recap of Session 1 of the ComicLink auction.    Given that so many of these books don't change hands that often - I altered my recap to look at comparison vs 12 Mos Avg (and still most books don't have sales) as well as peak sale.    As others have stated, might be hard to draw conclusions about overall state of market given the rarity of some of the items.     Anyway.....hope you find it interesting. 

 

[Tom789]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:10 PM, lou_fine said:

The reason for falling prices for these kinds of books may have a lot to do with the fact that they tend to show up in every single auction, with some having even multiple copies in the same auction.  

So, no real reason to go out of your way to big too high because if you miss this copy here, another one will be coming along before you know it.  

Um, no different than a year ago when the prices were higher?

[KCOComics]

On 9/2/2023 at 6:44 PM, DC# said:

Here is a recap of Session 1 of the ComicLink auction.    Given that so many of these books don't change hands that often - I altered my recap to look at comparison vs 12 Mos Avg (and still most books don't have sales) as well as peak sale.    As others have stated, might be hard to draw conclusions about overall state of market given the rarity of some of the items.     Anyway.....hope you find it interesting. 

 

A couple of prices that jumped out to me.

These books are starting to feel cheap.  

Hulk 181 in 7.5 for $4.5k 

HOS92 in 9.2 for $8k 

X1 in 5.0 for $11k

 

The early Hulks (1-6) look to be pretty stable, though high grade copies look to be performing well. 

And GA books are pretty hit and miss. 

[lou_fine]

On 9/2/2023 at 7:05 AM, buttock said:

I focus on the book, not the auction house.  It seems silly to punish myself because the auction house doesn't do things the way I prefer.  

Too many auctions nowadays with too few hours in the day to keep track of them all.  

As such, the CL auctions don't tend to be near the top of my viewing priorities because I don't really care for their auction format, although I have certainly won books from them in the past before.  

[lou_fine]

On 9/2/2023 at 7:07 AM, buttock said:

On Clink you see the crazy prices for books that come up once a decade or so.  

On CL, I tend to see the crazy prices more for books that are the highest graded copies, especially if they are the single highest graded, even though these same books might not carry much value in anything say below NM- 9.2 condition grade. 

It's really a case of to each their own, but I always fnd it better to buy a book whereby if additional roughly equivalent graded copies comes into the marketplace, it actually helps to reinforce and continue to push up the price which I had originally paid for the book.  I find that to be a much better scenario than buying a book whereby if an additional equivalent or higher graded copy comes into the marketplace, it serves pretty much only to destroy the original price which you had paid for your copy.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/2/2023 at 6:44 PM, DC# said:

Here is a recap of Session 1 of the ComicLink auction.    Given that so many of these books don't change hands that often - I altered my recap to look at comparison vs 12 Mos Avg (and still most books don't have sales) as well as peak sale.    As others have stated, might be hard to draw conclusions about overall state of market given the rarity of some of the items.     Anyway.....hope you find it interesting. 

 

The ranges on these are astonishing.  So many deltas in the red to the tune of over 50%, even 70% ... and a surprising number in the green selling for 3, 5, 10+ times peak.  Thank you as always for putting in so much effort.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Sweet Lou 14

[Nick Furious]

On 9/2/2023 at 9:03 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

a surprising number in the green selling for 3, 5, 10+ times peak

You need to look at the peak year on those for better clarity.  They are thinly traded books, and the same grade comps can go back a long way.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/2/2023 at 10:07 PM, Nick Furious said:

You need to look at the peak year on those for better clarity.  They are thinly traded books, and the same grade comps can go back a long way.  

You're right.  I just took a second glance (rushing, but still) and it looks like all but two of the big green numbers are for rare GA books.  The two SA books I saw are Hulk #6 (which actually isn't so scarce if memory serves, #4 might be more plentiful but not by much) and JIM #84 which is one of four tied for the highest grade in the census.

[Telegan]

On 9/2/2023 at 9:03 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

The ranges on these are astonishing.  So many deltas in the red to the tune of over 50%, even 70% ... and a surprising number in the green selling for 3, 5, 10+ times peak.  Thank you as always for putting in so much effort.

Among things I've noticed is that if you take the numbers at face-value, you may be doing a disservice to the pricing (and yourself).  A lot of those massively-down comics are from the Silver Age or later, had speculative run-ups based upon movies, tv shows, etc. and had peak prices in 2021 or 2022.

When I try to come up with a good price for these, I almost always "disregard" 2021-2022 (and some of 2020, as well) pricing.  Again, that's just me.  It's like saying a stock was a $1000+ stock during the dotcom bubble and is now trading at $8, so now is the time to get in because... you just know it's got to go back up.  When I'm looking to buy something from that era, I'm looking to see what it was selling for pre-2020 and how close it is to the prices around then.

On that note, Golden Age seems to be a different beast (I'm speaking somewhat anecdotally).  GA comics seem to have either gone down a bit, held steady, or skyrocketed in some cases (again, generally speaking).  I think GA has been a bit of a refuge for some collectors trying to escape the sell-off in other eras and has also seen a taking-to by "new" collectors.