Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[VintageComics]

On 11/4/2023 at 12:03 PM, drotto said:

If you look at the GPA averages on most books, they have returned to the trend line from say 2015 to 2020 if you essentially cut the bump from the bubble off. So if you were in before 2020 your OK.  If you are buying now, if the historical trend line holds, your again OK. Those who bought on the bump will likely eventually get back up there, it just may take 10 to 15 years.

Yep. As you scale back your lense things look less ominous. Even the people that bought high will likely be OK if they can hold.

If you're a short term flipper and you got caught with your pants down, it happens to the best of people. Learn from it and move on.

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 11/4/2023 at 4:34 PM, batmiesta said:

Bit of a head scratcher. 

X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$197	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended
X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$397	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended

X-Men movie at least three years away. That's a long time from now.  Gamble. 

[batmiesta]

On 11/4/2023 at 9:02 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

X-Men movie at least three years away. That's a long time from now.  Gamble. 

The fact that the same book goes for a $200 price difference I meant, doesn't make sense. 

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/4/2023 at 3:07 PM, batmiesta said:

The fact that the same book goes for a $200 price difference I meant, doesn't make sense. 

Unless one book is owned by someone who “encourages” people to bid it up, and the other is just some dude who sent it to auction.

[Microchip]

On 11/5/2023 at 8:07 AM, batmiesta said:

The fact that the same book goes for a $200 price difference I meant, doesn't make sense. 

Bidders missed the first one, then chased the second copy harder.   They're last few seconds bids on the first book were too light, then they upped them on the next copy.

[Poekaymon]

On 11/4/2023 at 8:10 PM, Microchip said:

Bidders missed the first one, then chased the second copy harder.   They're last few seconds bids on the first book were too light, then they upped them on the next copy.

Charitable interpretations considering other copies have sold recently in the 200s and one is up on ebay right now for $325 BIN and no one wants it.  (And it's been up for a month.)  

[Telegan]

On 11/4/2023 at 3:34 PM, batmiesta said:

Bit of a head scratcher. 

X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$197	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended
X-MEN #133  CGC 9.6 NM+ Add to WantList		$397	$75	10/13/2023	11/3/2023		Ended

Along with the other hypotheses before mine, I'll throw another one in :

On GoCollect, the last sale of a 9.6 is a BIN listed at $375 via eBay on Nov. 2 (but no indication what the actual sale price was).  But... it's also a newsstand edition.  GPA lists the actual price of the sale at $315, btw.
The last sale of a 9.6 direct edition on GPA was $202.  If you go on GoCollect and look at what appear to be direct edition prices, they have direct and newsstand prices mixed together, so I don't know how you can infer any trend/prices from that.

What if people just mixed up newsstands vs. direct pricing and/or the screwy prices on GoCollect in that one auction lot?  *shrug*

[VintageComics]

On 11/4/2023 at 8:10 PM, Microchip said:

On 11/4/2023 at 5:07 PM, batmiesta said:

The fact that the same book goes for a $200 price difference I meant, doesn't make sense. 

Bidders missed the first one, then chased the second copy harder.   They're last few seconds bids on the first book were too light, then they upped them on the next copy.

There is literally no way to tell fpr sure but yeah, logic would say that it always comes down to how many bidders are present to bid. 

I've had two of the same book in an auction before. Sometimes the 1st goes for far more, some times the 2nd goes for far more. 

I recently had a 2nd copy of the same book go for almost HALF what the first book went for but ALL previous copies went for roughly what the 2nd one went for sometimes even in the same auction.

What is the most likely excuse is that it takes two bidders to tangle, and all other variables being equal if just one bidder doesn't show up, it can cause large price fluctuations.

Edited November 5, 2023 by VintageComics

[batmiesta]

I prefer the hypothesis that some collectors are just thick as mince.

[comicartfan]

On 11/5/2023 at 1:36 AM, VintageComics said:

There is literally no way to tell fpr sure but yeah, logic would say that it always comes down to how many bidders are present to bid. 

I've had two of the same book in an auction before. Sometimes the 1st goes for far more, some times the 2nd goes for far more. 

I recently had a 2nd copy of the same book go for almost HALF what the first book went for but ALL previous copies went for roughly what the 2nd one went for sometimes even in the same auction.

What is the most likely excuse is that it takes two bidders to tangle, and all other variables being equal if just one bidder doesn't show up, it can cause large price fluctuations.

I think you make some good points Roy. What I find to be the case is that the "first copy" in an auction tends to go for more than the next one. I believe especially if it has been awhile since the last one has come to auction. I understand there are a lot of variables, but it's just my observation  

[VintageComics]

On 11/5/2023 at 7:42 AM, comicartfan said:

On 11/5/2023 at 1:36 AM, VintageComics said:

There is literally no way to tell fpr sure but yeah, logic would say that it always comes down to how many bidders are present to bid. 

I've had two of the same book in an auction before. Sometimes the 1st goes for far more, some times the 2nd goes for far more. 

I recently had a 2nd copy of the same book go for almost HALF what the first book went for but ALL previous copies went for roughly what the 2nd one went for sometimes even in the same auction.

What is the most likely excuse is that it takes two bidders to tangle, and all other variables being equal if just one bidder doesn't show up, it can cause large price fluctuations.

I think you make some good points Roy. What I find to be the case is that the "first copy" in an auction tends to go for more than the next one. I believe especially if it has been awhile since the last one has come to auction. I understand there are a lot of variables, but it's just my observation  

What's up, man?

Logic would dictate that, especially if all other things are equal and I used to believe that as well but I've seen it with my own eyes. I see very common books in grade sometimes and the 2nd book in a same auction has gone for more money at times. And it's not always just about the QP.  

The only things this can be attributed to when it's on common books is who is bidding. 

It's why if I have a 2nd copy of a book and the auction house asked me whether I want to space them out or not, I generally don't care unless it's a very expensive book and the price difference is staggering. 

But for very high volume books where the bidding base is large - say stuff under $1000 it really is just a coin toss sometimes and you could easily get 10-20% price swings in either direction just because someone is throwing in a bid when they have a second while putting the kids to bed or whatever. 

That's how it used to be for me when my kids are young. 

Going back to the example above with the X-men book - I wouldn't attribute it to anymore more than bad luck personally. If you go through GPA you can probably find all sorts of wacky results like this, especially on cheaper books where there is no urgency to bid as another will come along soon. 

 

[buttock]

On 11/4/2023 at 9:24 AM, VintageComics said:

Well, I just lost a very long post with this board software. 

You're all lucky that the CGC Gods are smiling on the rest of you. 

Have you ever had a short post? 

[VintageComics]

On 11/5/2023 at 10:22 AM, buttock said:

Have you ever had a short post? 

No. It's always been considered large. 

[buttock]

On 11/5/2023 at 8:23 AM, VintageComics said:

No. It's always been considered large. 

[VintageComics]

On 11/3/2023 at 8:09 PM, DC# said:

For that AF#15 chart I have been trying to capture sales that do not show up in GPA (like Clink and a few other spots).    Can't say that I have gotten them all but hopefully most are there.   

Where I think a collaboration would be useful is weeding out noise and that's where I'd be able to offer insight. 

Things like PQ and QP can greatly swing volatility. For example, I've seen perfectly centered White page books go for 2-3 times their other counterparts. That's an anomaly not a trend. Other things that can affect books are movie announcements, whether the books are exceptional for the grade (or are upgradeable - that's a big silent one) or time of year (typically, winter can be hit or miss - a month or two before Christmas there is a bit of a slump, then you may get a pop as some people get their Christmas bonuses, and then a slump post X-mas as the bills set in).

Ironically, AF #15 is one of those books. 

If you all remember in the spring of 2017 the price of AF #15 nearly doubled in all grades in a Connect auction. It's the biggest blip on the GPA charts next to 2021, but it was ALMOST as big as 2021 was for that specific book. 

Several copies came to market at the same time that I thought were upgradeable and they sold for record money, which was about double the previous prices.

 

That set the AF #15 market on fire and all copies took off. 

If you remember, several AF #15 copies sold for a quarter Million or so and then the market pulled back again.

You can read the discussion in the AF #15 thread at the time. Everyone was worried it would pull back but it never went back to it's pre 2017 prices. 

This is why I believe AF #15 is a perfect test case. 

Who wants to build a 3 dimensional graph? 

Edited November 5, 2023 by VintageComics

[VintageComics]

On 11/5/2023 at 10:26 AM, buttock said:

You made me do it. The long post, that is. 

[batmiesta]

On 11/5/2023 at 12:10 AM, Microchip said:

Bidders missed the first one, then chased the second copy harder.   They're last few seconds bids on the first book were too light, then they upped them on the next copy.

But the first copy is the one that went for $397 .  If I was that buyer, then an exact copy finished $200 less, I would be pretty pissed, but I am not that stupid so it would never happen.  (leaving myself wide open for future possible poop )

Edited November 5, 2023 by batmiesta

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 11/3/2023 at 4:16 PM, bc said:

@DC# does a good job of that over here:

Here's one of his recent graphs:

-bc

 

this is the single most useful post in this entire thread.  This post is this thread answered. all discussion to throw out "outliers" should be summarily ignored. That's not how statistical analysis works. That's baked into the statistical analysis itself and is accounted for. But anyone not legally blind can read this trend line unassisted.  Repeat this for the top 10 SA and BA books of the last 5 years and I'd wager a similar, if not steeper result.  Only those engaged in magical thinking or dealers would even attempt to explain this away.  Superheroes peaked in 2019, the pandemic, like a dying sun created a temporary flare of heat that only portends a cooling trend.  there's simply no ignoring the macroeconomic forces layered in with demographics trends.  Boomers are aging our of relevancy, and comics are predominately their pop-culture artifact. the Gen-X cohort is too small to absorb it in full, and millennial's are only superficially interested.  Everything collectible, without exception, cycles out of public consciousness in time. Super-hero comics have 90 years. We are in the last 15. Plan accordingly. 

[batmiesta]

On 11/5/2023 at 5:52 PM, MyNameIsLegion said:

this is the single most useful post in this entire thread.  This post is this thread answered. all discussion to throw out "outliers" should be summarily ignored. That's not how statistical analysis works. That's baked into the statistical analysis itself and is accounted for. But anyone not legally blind can read this trend line unassisted.  Repeat this for the top 10 SA and BA books of the last 5 years and I'd wager a similar, if not steeper result.  Only those engaged in magical thinking or dealers would even attempt to explain this away.  Superheroes peaked in 2019, the pandemic, like a dying sun created a temporary flare of heat that only portends a cooling trend.  there's simply no ignoring the macroeconomic forces layered in with demographics trends.  Boomers are aging our of relevancy, and comics are predominately their pop-culture artifact. the Gen-X cohort is too small to absorb it in full, and millennial's are only superficially interested.  Everything collectible, without exception, cycles out of public consciousness in time. Super-hero comics have 90 years. We are in the last 15. Plan accordingly. 

Oooohhh! Sorry.

[VintageComics]

On 11/5/2023 at 12:52 PM, MyNameIsLegion said:

this is the single most useful post in this entire thread.  This post is this thread answered. all discussion to throw out "outliers" should be summarily ignored. That's not how statistical analysis works. That's baked into the statistical analysis itself and is accounted for. But anyone not legally blind can read this trend line unassisted.  Repeat this for the top 10 SA and BA books of the last 5 years and I'd wager a similar, if not steeper result.  Only those engaged in magical thinking or dealers would even attempt to explain this away.  Superheroes peaked in 2019, the pandemic, like a dying sun created a temporary flare of heat that only portends a cooling trend.  there's simply no ignoring the macroeconomic forces layered in with demographics trends.  Boomers are aging our of relevancy, and comics are predominately their pop-culture artifact. the Gen-X cohort is too small to absorb it in full, and millennial's are only superficially interested.  Everything collectible, without exception, cycles out of public consciousness in time. Super-hero comics have 90 years. We are in the last 15. Plan accordingly. 

Speaking solely about AF #15, which is what we were doing, you'd be totally wrong if you looked at the 2017 data, which was an inflated market build entirely on outliers but OK. 

And comics have been "dying" since this chat forum was formed over 20 years ago so it's hard to take that sentiment seriously when someone says this is the death knell and we're in the final 15 years. People have been saying it for much longer than the last 20 years.

I might be a dealer but I genuinely don't care either way.