Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Book Guy]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:27 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

I'm not sure how to interpret this comment.  It's because comics, via CGC have been so thoroughly commoditized new and existing collectors have been priced out to a large extent, while the hobby, and I do say hobby, we forget the emotional appeal of the comic was what originally assigned value to the eventual commodity you speak of is contracting rapidly in terms of creating new comics, new stores for comics, new readers, new future collectors.  That's not sustainable in the long term. Sure, Bob makes Money, and if that's all you care about it, that's fine, but at some point you won't make as much, and you won't have a business to pass on to anyone, but hopefully you banked enough on the way down.  But for many of your customers, many of the books you sold to them will not be worth as much, and they will get sold at a yard sale if they even make it that far. You will argue this point vehemently of course, but do you actually believe it to be true? 

Nobody is making Pulp Magazines anymore and they are currently very hot. Probably too hot, but who's to say...

With Comics and Pulps and LP Records and hardcover First edition Books, people are buying the OBJECT not the EXPERIENCE. They will read or listen to the content on their phone (probably) and if it jazzes them enough they will look to buy the Object. The digitalization of content has vastly expanded the potential audience, making it worldwide and certainly the audience for Comics 'Content' (including Films, Games etc) is the largest it has ever been, EVER!  Some of those people will want to own the Object and so they will pay whatever they have to to get it.

I just had the experience last summer of dealing with a house with 40,000 Books in it. Probably that's a pretty accurate guess as to the number. It was fairly well organized, but it still reminded me of King Tut's Tomb! Books were stacked 10 feet high etc. Overwhelming. Some great stuff, but that's a different story...

I called in a friend who owns a brick-and-mortar Bookstore to help deal with the situation as the time was limited and during some down time we talked a bit about younger Book Collectors and the future of Book Collecting. He noted that younger collectors only really wanted High Points but they were willing to pay whatever it took to get them. They were not the equivalent of 'run collectors' in Comics, but only looked for the most classic titles, Hugo Winners, Books Made Into Movies, THE OLD MAN AND THE SEA, TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD etc. 'Iconic' cover  and 'Key' Issue collectors in Comic Book terms! I also did a Record Fair a while ago and spent some time talking to a friend of mine who is quite expert on that field and very dialed in to the market, including the top end. He made an interesting observation that digital generation collectors were very focused on showing off their collections online, Facebook, Instagram etc and that status was often a major motive for collecting. Bragging Rights...

I think both observations are true and apply equally or more so to comics. People continue to be attracted to the fields and hence the Objects and human nature takes over from that. Since they aren't making 'em any more I think long term values will hold up.

I think almost everybody on these boards would look upon a serious downturn in prices as a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity, BTW. I think many doomers are really just 'talking their Book' and hoping they can buy what they want at a lower price.

Having said that, might main focus of buying which recently has been 50's and early 60's DC Sci Fi titles like STRANGE ADVENTURES etc have backed off price wise. Maybe not super high end copies, but say at 6.5 or a little better. I buy mostly on eBay. Other more quirky interest of mine show the same pattern. So there is weakness.out there. I wonder about the very high prices for things like AF15 which we all know is a fairly common Comic. A serious Financial/Economic event would almost certainly effect the prices of more common Keys that have reached nosebleed prices.

Just IMHO as they say!

 

[universal soldier]

I'm hoping to be largely "out" of my collection in 15 years so seems that I'm going to time it just right . I'm treating it like a long term investment and hoping to realize a 20% return. Is that realistic?  Certainly obtainable for my early OO collection that I paid 25-60 cents a book for, not so much with the run of the mill moderns, so hopefully there is some type of balance in there. I'm hoping to make up that difference in the higher end books I do own. I'm never going to get rich off my collection, I'm just a small fish in a really big pond.

Fascinating thread though, and quite interesting to see all the red in the recent sales. I likely have overpaid for a few books in the past three years, so far the larger $$ ones I waited until late 2022/early 2023 to purchase seem to be maintaining or only realizing a small drop off. 

[VintageComics]

On 11/7/2023 at 3:14 PM, 1Cool said:

By the way - Roy only has 352 post until he hits 100,000 posts!  Will he hit this milestone this week??

Dude, I was almost at 104K at the start of the year. 

When Mike banned me from the Water Cooler (people got tired of being schooled) I lost over 3000 posts. 

[VintageComics]

On 11/7/2023 at 4:11 PM, MAR1979 said:

Or another multi-week banning? Whats the over/under?

Never again. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by VintageComics

[rlextherobot]

On 11/7/2023 at 2:08 PM, Book Guy said:

a friend of mine who is quite expert on that field and very dialed in to the market, including the top end. He made an interesting observation that digital generation collectors were very focused on showing off their collections online, Facebook, Instagram etc and that status was often a major motive for collecting. Bragging Rights...

This very forum is host to threads hundreds of pages long of people showing off their collections and acquisitions. Its the same in every forum dedicated to collecting I've ever been on. It's not just the younger collectors...

[Nick Furious]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:22 AM, VintageComics said:

I just don't know at this point when the light will fade, but this is FAR too convenient a time to build a case that the sky is falling is during the single greatest asset correction in world history with record inflation, record energy prices, record number of wars yada, yada, yada. This is quite literally an unprecedented time in modern history and you can't draw hard and fast rules around this unprecedented time.

Agreed.  Right now we've been watching industry demand shift from "Superhero First Appearances" to older, less common books with above average cover art.  Because of that shift, I feel better than ever about the longevity of comic books as a valuable collectible.  A superhero first appearance is something I can show to other comic nerds and get a "wow" response.  Above average cover art in a golden age comic is something I can show to anyone I know and get a "wow".  Don't feel great about the short-term, but I feel good about the long-term.  

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Nick Furious

[lou_fine]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:11 AM, VintageComics said:

Disney delaying the FF and X-men franchises are MONSTER factors in the decline of anything related to those two titles.

If you are banking on movies being the salvation of your specific comics, I certainly wouldn't hold my breath if I was a collector because haven't we all seen this scenario before and only good for the speculators and flippers who can timed the market perfectly. 

Especially since movie or TV related comic books tends to have only a short term temporary rocket-like spike which is then followed by the rocket ship falling back down to Earth.  

 

On 11/2/2023 at 9:11 AM, VintageComics said:

Just imagine a Surfer story line is released through film?

Haven't we already seen a FF movie with a Silver Surfer story line built in there about some 15 odd years ago?  

[MAR1979]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:14 PM, VintageComics said:

Never again. 

Congrats on your Purchase of Blackstone!

[VintageComics]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:58 PM, lou_fine said:

On 11/2/2023 at 12:11 PM, VintageComics said:

Just imagine a Surfer story line is released through film?

Haven't we already seen a FF movie with a Silver Surfer story line built in there about some 15 odd years ago?  

Yeah. It was carp though (the fish Lizard2 loves, not the doo doo). 

Disney is so obviously going to redo the entire Marvel Universe. They didn't spend $100BIL to squat on it. 

Like I said, they are S-T-A-L-L-I-N-G until contracts expire so they can restart the franchises. They've just been biding their time with all of these other stinkers they put out.

Edited November 8, 2023 by VintageComics

[VintageComics]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:00 PM, MAR1979 said:

On 11/7/2023 at 10:14 PM, VintageComics said:

Never again. 

Congrats on your Purchase of Blackstone!

[DC#]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:58 PM, universal soldier said:

I'm hoping to be largely "out" of my collection in 15 years so seems that I'm going to time it just right . I'm treating it like a long term investment and hoping to realize a 20% return. Is that realistic?  Certainly obtainable for my early OO collection that I paid 25-60 cents a book for, not so much with the run of the mill moderns, so hopefully there is some type of balance in there. I'm hoping to make up that difference in the higher end books I do own. I'm never going to get rich off my collection, I'm just a small fish in a really big pond.

Fascinating thread though, and quite interesting to see all the red in the recent sales. I likely have overpaid for a few books in the past three years, so far the larger $$ ones I waited until late 2022/early 2023 to purchase seem to be maintaining or only realizing a small drop off. 

$100k at 5% CAGR for 15 years would be right at $200k (100% return).    A 20% return over that period would require a 1.3% CAGR (probably less than inflation).   So not a stretch to think you will hit 20% but also likely that all of us could make more by selling today regardless of market conditions/prices and moving the capital to other investments.    If it were only about the money.......

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 11/8/2023 at 12:10 PM, DC# said:

$100k at 5% CAGR for 15 years would be right at $200k (100% return).    A 20% return over that period would require a 1.3% CAGR (probably less than inflation).   So not a stretch to think you will hit 20% but also likely that all of us could make more by selling today regardless of market conditions/prices and moving the capital to other investments.    If it were only about the money.......

this reminds me, when it come to tangible assets of course there is no guarantee they hold their value much less keep up with inflation. I frequently watch Antique Roadshow reruns that show the estimated value from a range of shows from 2005 -2018 and then they show the updated value for 2023. So many things have gone down or stayed flat, and and it they stayed flat from 2007, well you lost money due to inflation, about 3/4 in fact.  My wife and I play the game of if it went up or down and by how much, and I'm probably right 75% of the time. The trend I see is mostly generational, as  those items were of cultural or practical importance to one generation, they peak after 50-75 years and then they drop off. American Comics are well passed their shelf-life date. We've spent the last 25 years with a moribund medium of cross-overs, reboots, death and rebirth, re-hash, gender and race swaps, and 17 different series that have Infinity Gloves, Garters, Gauntlets, Gum-ball Machines, and Garden Gnomes. What filled that void? The little device in your pocket (no not that one, the other one) and a side order of Manga. 

[valiantman]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:21 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

The trend I see is mostly generational, as  those items were of cultural or practical importance to one generation, they peak after 50-75 years and then they drop off. American Comics are well passed their shelf-life date. We've spent the last 25 years with a moribund medium of cross-overs, reboots, death and rebirth, re-hash, gender and race swaps, and 17 different series that have Infinity Gloves, Garters, Gauntlets, Gum-ball Machines, and Garden Gnomes. What filled that void? The little device in your pocket (no not that one, the other one) and a side order of Manga. 

Just curious whether the 50-75 years is measured from the start of the era or from the start of widespread collecting?  For example, U.S. coin and stamp collecting were big in the middle of the 20th century, but the items had already been around for 150+ years.

So, if the 50-75 year estimate starts with the beginning of widespread collecting, comics would be about 1963 starting as widespread collectible, and we're in roughly year 60.

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:45 AM, valiantman said:

Just curious whether the 50-75 years is measured from the start of the era or from the start of widespread collecting?  For example, U.S. coin and stamp collecting were big in the middle of the 20th century, but the items had already been around for 150+ years.

So, if the 50-75 year estimate starts with the beginning of widespread collecting, comics would be about 1963 starting as widespread collectible, and we're in roughly year 60.

That’s a valid question, some things were not hobby’s that became collectible. Like MCM furniture or uranium glass, while stamps, coins, matchbooks, trains, those were hobby’s that were “pursued” for pleasure until they were collected for profit. Comics seem somewhere in the middle. They certainly have done better than old National Geographic magazines! It’s also hard to pinpoint because collecting is mostly a post-war sign of middle class affluence by and large and many things became hobby’s to pursue with disposable income in a relatively short time frame. Your age and interests relative to that era (Silent Generation, Greatest Generation, Boomer, old Gen X really make it fuzzy. My contention is that Gen X is the end of that contiguous shared experience. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by MyNameIsLegion

[PopKulture]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:54 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

That’s a valid question, some things were not hobby’s that became collectible. Like MCM furniture or uranium glass, while stamps, coins, matchbooks, trains, those were hobby’s that were “pursued” for pleasure until they were collected for profit. Comics seem somewhere in the middle. They certainly have done better than old National Geographic magazines! It’s also hard to pinpoint because collecting is mostly a post-war sign of middle class affluence by and large and many things became hobby’s to pursue with disposable income in a relatively short time frame. Your age and interests relative to that era (Silent Generation, Greatest Generation, Boomer, old Gen X really make it fuzzy. My contention is that Gen X is the end of that contiguous shared experience. 

It’s funny you mention National Geographic. When I was a kid looking for other stuff, even junkyards knew to ask a lot for National Geographic. I recall prices for generic 40s issues being $3 to $5, and double that if they had a Coke ad on the back cover. The earlier all-text covers were $10 and up. The first issue was a holy grail worth $10,000 and up. It’s just remarkable what that same money spent on comics or pulps could’ve bought.

Edited November 9, 2023 by PopKulture

[1Cool]

On 11/9/2023 at 12:03 PM, PopKulture said:

It’s funny you mention National Geographic. When I was a kid looking for other stuff, even junkyards knew to ask a lot for National Geographic. I recall prices for generic 40s issues being $3 to $5, and double that if they had a Coke ad on the back cover. The earlier all-text covers were $10 and up. The first issue was a holy grail worth $10,000 and up. It’s just remarkable what that same money spent on comics could’ve bought in comics or pulps. 

I never really understood why most magazines have zero collectability but comics became such a major collectible.  Time magazines to old Playboys to National Geographics to Home and Garden - all but a handful of issues are basically worthless even when they are 50 - 60 years old.  

[PopKulture]

On 11/9/2023 at 11:06 AM, 1Cool said:

I never really understood why most magazines have zero collectability but comics became such a major collectible.  Time magazines to old Playboys to National Geographics to Home and Garden - all but a handful of issues are basically worthless even when they are 50 - 60 years old.  

Playboy has been crashing hard for years now. Various issues of Time have held their value solidly, with many new “key” issues arising because of society and technology, like the now-valued Steve Jobs or Bill Gates early covers. The 40s and 50s celebrity and sports star issues are still in demand. 

At one time, many magazines were treasured for their ads, which were commonly framed and used as decor, and that has definitely fallen by the wayside. I haven’t been in anyone’s house for years and seen an Old Dutch ad.  

[DC#]

On 11/9/2023 at 7:21 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

this reminds me, when it come to tangible assets of course there is no guarantee they hold their value much less keep up with inflation. I frequently watch Antique Roadshow reruns that show the estimated value from a range of shows from 2005 -2018 and then they show the updated value for 2023. So many things have gone down or stayed flat, and and it they stayed flat from 2007, well you lost money due to inflation, about 3/4 in fact.  My wife and I play the game of if it went up or down and by how much, and I'm probably right 75% of the time. The trend I see is mostly generational, as  those items were of cultural or practical importance to one generation, they peak after 50-75 years and then they drop off. American Comics are well passed their shelf-life date. We've spent the last 25 years with a moribund medium of cross-overs, reboots, death and rebirth, re-hash, gender and race swaps, and 17 different series that have Infinity Gloves, Garters, Gauntlets, Gum-ball Machines, and Garden Gnomes. What filled that void? The little device in your pocket (no not that one, the other one) and a side order of Manga. 

If you bought AF#15 5.0 or Showcase #4 5.0 in 2005 at around $5k and $3k respectively - you would have had around a 15% annual return by start of 2023.   That is compared to around a 9% annual rate for the S&P 500.   Even a common ASM #252 in 9.8 would have generated around 12% annually over that time.      As they say - past performance is not a guarantee of future performance - but that was a good period of time for at least some books if not a lot of books.      

That period had drivers (superhero film boom, COVID liquidity boom) and drags (2008 financial crisis, post COVID bust).   But the unknown is the impact of generational dynamics that everyone has been debating and how long they might last.    I am personally a little skeptical that books will see double-digit annual returns from today over the next 15 years.   With no expertise whatsoever, I would think 5-7% annual growth would be surprisingly good.      

[MyNameIsLegion]

Now that we have math, money and pop-culture in this thread where’s @delekkerste🧐 I need another “doomer” or more accurately Gen-axer

Edited November 9, 2023 by MyNameIsLegion

[DC#]

Another example of how some, more rare collectibles are doing well still.    PSA 10 of a Luke Skywalker "rookie card" just sold for a what I believe is a record $78k.   Only 9 cards at this grade.  Previous high according to PSA site was $55k back in 2021 - and the card was a bargain back in 2019 at $5k-$7k.   

And the only PSA 10 of the rookie sticker went for $58k (last sold in 2018 for under $7k)

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by DC#