Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 41 41

[DC#]

On 9/3/2024 at 1:42 PM, kimik said:

I take it that the grader's notes told a nasty story about the back cover? The front is weak for a 3.5 - this may have been a case of buy the book, not the grade, holding true.

Buy the book + holiday could definitely be the combo that hit this one.    The Feb copy sold on Heritage for $30k is arguably much worse looking - the $22k copy has a bit worse chipping (and the back corner issue) but the colors are so much more vivid.   

[DC#]

On 9/3/2024 at 1:45 PM, WolverineX said:

yikes, good deal or is the bottom still in the future?  

 

Maybe 22k for a 3.5 will be a good sale in the next few months.. prices tend to drop even more as we reach the holidays....

The trend lines have been "flattish" for most of the blue collar grades over the past 18-24 months - or a much more gradual decline.    The greatest variation seemingly tied to stellar examples in the grade.    Below is a chart I update ever so often on the AF15 page in the Silver Age section.    

There is a 4.0 copy coming up on Heritage in a couple of weeks that looks very much like the 3.5 - should be a good test to see if yesterday's number was truly an outlier or not (at least in the near term).    

[VintageComics]

On 9/3/2024 at 7:19 PM, DC# said:

The trend lines have been "flattish" for most of the blue collar grades over the past 18-24 months - or a much more gradual decline.    The greatest variation seemingly tied to stellar examples in the grade.    Below is a chart I update ever so often on the AF15 page in the Silver Age section.    

There is a 4.0 copy coming up on Heritage in a couple of weeks that looks very much like the 3.5 - should be a good test to see if yesterday's number was truly an outlier or not (at least in the near term).    

In this thread, I stated about 1.5 years ago (early 2023) that dealers seem to be saying that the market had levelled off and your post seems to support that. 

Corrections are made by many different factors, but the largest is people getting out, and this is usually people who either need to or want to get out. 

Some people sell off because they need to. The must have the money. 

Others sell off because they want to get out.

Once those people clear out, which is generally, pretty early on, the market stabilizes. 

Economic headwinds in the next few months are going to be the largest factor for the direction of the market from here on out. Strong market indicators (good fiscal decision making) are going to be the strongest indicators of what happens next. 

[Stefan_W]

I made six bids in the CL auction tonight all at or above GPA value and got blown out of the water on all of them. The nicer stuff is going for a lot. 

[Stefan_W]

On 9/3/2024 at 10:32 PM, Stefan_W said:

I made six bids in the CL auction tonight all at or above GPA value and got blown out of the water on all of them. The nicer stuff is going for a lot. 

Spoke too soon. I ended up winning a couple of subbies I was after. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

Regarding that 3.5, never ever underestimate the power of Marvel chipping to depress prices.  For whatever reason a higher percentage of AF 15s have chipping than just about any other book I can think of.  But there is such a high overall supply of AF 15s that I don't see any reason to be stuck with a chipped copy if you don't want one.  So basically buyers get to choose:  avoid chipping and pay a premium, or accept chipping and get a deal.

[LordRahl]

On 9/3/2024 at 7:32 PM, Stefan_W said:

I made six bids in the CL auction tonight all at or above GPA value and got blown out of the water on all of them. The nicer stuff is going for a lot. 

Lots of high grade stuff going for a bunch of money. Don't follow low and mid grade but the high grade stuff I was following was strong.

Edited September 3 by LordRahl
typo

[Microchip]

On 9/4/2024 at 12:17 PM, VintageComics said:

Economic headwinds in the next few months are going to be the largest factor for the direction of the market from here on out. Strong market indicators (good fiscal decision making) are going to be the strongest indicators of what happens next. 

Tech looks like it will be tanking leading up to the election.   Albeit comic prices move in larger cycles, it'll be interesting to see if alternative investments get a nod upwards once again.

[Microchip]

On 9/4/2024 at 1:43 PM, LordRahl said:

Lots of high grade stuff going for a bunch of money. Don't follow low and mix grade but the high grade stuff I was following was strong.

The show-reel from this latest Clink auction...

This one always mystifies me.

[VintageComics]

On 9/3/2024 at 10:32 PM, Stefan_W said:

I made six bids in the CL auction tonight all at or above GPA value and got blown out of the water on all of them. The nicer stuff is going for a lot. 

That's because of easing of interest rates. When money gets cheaper, big money spends it...or feels more comfortable spending it at the very least, so wallets get loosened up. 

This is part of the concept behind trickle down economics and you're seeing a real example of it. 

On 9/3/2024 at 11:29 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Regarding that 3.5, never ever underestimate the power of Marvel chipping to depress prices.  For whatever reason a higher percentage of AF 15s have chipping than just about any other book I can think of.  But there is such a high overall supply of AF 15s that I don't see any reason to be stuck with a chipped copy if you don't want one.  So basically buyers get to choose:  avoid chipping and pay a premium, or accept chipping and get a deal.

That's the exaggeration of pricing, created by the internet that I was talking about. 

The price swings are large enough that they carry into surrounding grades. 

On 9/3/2024 at 11:43 PM, Microchip said:

Tech looks like it will be tanking leading up to the election.   Albeit comic prices move in larger cycles, it'll be interesting to see if alternative investments get a nod upwards once again.

Interest rates.

I spoke to a big buyer / dealer and he sees spending happening with falling rates. I have to agree. It loosens everyone's belt.

You can make the argument that they shouldn't be lowering rates with inflation still looming, but I've heard chatter that they're doing it simply because banks are being crushed by people not borrowing money. You can make the case that the lowering of interest rates is primarily being done so big banks don't fail. 

[VintageComics]

On 9/4/2024 at 10:49 AM, Poutine said:

Still not buying a house for the next two years at least 

When they raised rates I told my kids to be ready to buy in 3-4 years. 

They dropped them far sooner than I expected, but it was for reasons I already outlined above. "Too big to fail" is unfortunately part of life now. 

Edited September 4 by VintageComics

[justadude]

The demographic overlap between men who like other men with their underwear on the outside and global economists is truly impressive.

[Telegan]

On 9/3/2024 at 9:32 PM, Stefan_W said:

I made six bids in the CL auction tonight all at or above GPA value and got blown out of the water on all of them. The nicer stuff is going for a lot. 

For the stuff I look at, this has been true for a while.  Now, mind you, I just look at most of the stuff, I don't buy it - way above what I'm going to pay for a comic book in most cases. lol.  High grade stuff has been going for good prices whether it's warranted or not.  What I've found is that there have been pretty good deals if you're looking stuff that lower-to-upper mid-grade comics, although I'm seeing some people bidding those up, too.  This is in SA and GA.  Meanwhile rarity in GA, Baker, Cole, Schomburg, etc. still seems to be bringing in the money in pretty much any grade.  The first 3 bids I made on CL, I won.  I put a lukewarm bid on a 4th and lost it.  I think I would've won the 4th, as well, if I had bid what had thought I would bid going into the auction.  But I've decided to hold off a bit to put money into another auction after the 3 wins I did get.  I've got a couple more I'm looking at in the CL auction - we'll see where those go and if I decide to go full-on with my bid or try to get a steal. lol.

  

On 9/4/2024 at 11:40 AM, justadude said:

The demographic overlap between men who like other men with their underwear on the outside and global economists is truly impressive.

There's always that speed bump in a thread that sends you into a ditch that you won't recover from for at least a day ...

Edited September 4 by Telegan

[namisgr]

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041015/how-do-interest-rate-changes-affect-profitability-banking-sector.asp#:~:text=Interest rates and bank profitability,profits they earn by investing.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Interest rates and bank profitability are connected, with banks benefiting from higher interest rates.
• When interest rates are higher, banks make more money by taking advantage of the greater spread between the interest they pay to their customers and the profits they earn by investing.
• A bank can earn a full percentage point more than it pays in interest simply by lending out the money at short-term interest rates.
• Moreover, higher interest rates tend to reflect a healthy economy. Demand for loans to businesses and consumers should be high, with the bank making better returns on those loans.

[Microchip]

You've heard rumours of an ever credible Yale alumni member wanting to launch the second coming of comic books NFT's??

 

I have it on good authority SBF reads the "Billionairs changing their minds" thread with avid enthusiasm.

 

[Old Fashion PB and J]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:03 AM, namisgr said:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041015/how-do-interest-rate-changes-affect-profitability-banking-sector.asp#:~:text=Interest rates and bank profitability,profits they earn by investing.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Interest rates and bank profitability are connected, with banks benefiting from higher interest rates.
• When interest rates are higher, banks make more money by taking advantage of the greater spread between the interest they pay to their customers and the profits they earn by investing.
• A bank can earn a full percentage point more than it pays in interest simply by lending out the money at short-term interest rates.
• Moreover, higher interest rates tend to reflect a healthy economy. Demand for loans to businesses and consumers should be high, with the bank making better returns on those loans.

 Take your logic elsewhere sir!

[DC#]

A bit slow getting this done but here is a cross section of results from all sessions of the ComicLink Sept Featured Auction.    Some of my observations

- As usual, head scratchers to the high and low.   And some head scratcher GPA Last Sales

- Yes still lots of red - but maybe a bit more green and black on the left side of chart (vs last, 90- day and 12 month) and when you look GPA only comparisons on the right hand side.   Perhaps some stability than compared to 18-24 months ago?  That being said, these CL auctions can throw a monkey in your wrench of confidence.   Maybe the red on the chart really gets reduced when I stop comparing to 2022.   

- There are definitely opportunities in these auctions.   I tend to only bid on things that interest me - but maybe I should look more for the arbitrage opportunity.    Feel like CL is almost a wholesale auction for dealers.   Feels like you see a lot of these books pop up on other sellers shortly after CL closes.    

 

Edited September 9 by DC#

[skypinkblu]

On 9/8/2024 at 9:55 PM, DC# said:

A bit slow getting this done but here is a cross section of results from all sessions of the ComicLink Sept Featured Auction.

What a tremendous amount of work...thank you!

[The Less Blob]

On 9/4/2024 at 10:49 AM, Poutine said:

Still not buying a house for the next two years at least 

Interest rates are about the same as when I bought in a pretty hot market in 2006. I had excellent credit and I think I was at 6.5% (yes, of course I refinanced later to a chunk less), so I see 6.9% now. It seems crazy high, but historically, it is not.

[VintageComics]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:45 PM, The Less Blob said:

On 9/4/2024 at 10:49 AM, Poutine said:

Still not buying a house for the next two years at least 

Interest rates are about the same as when I bought in a pretty hot market in 2006. I had excellent credit and I think I was at 6.5% (yes, of course I refinanced later to a chunk less), so I see 6.9% now. It seems crazy high, but historically, it is not.

Historically it's not high, but for recent history (and people's short memory) it is. Most 20 somethings will only remember the low rates of the last 20 years.

I bought my 1st home in '97 at those rates and it dropped over the entire term of my mortgage, which was great.

But speaking strictly in recent terms, it's hard for banks to make money from interest when people can't afford anything. Average house prices in the US have doubled in the last few years, food and fuel prices are through the roof. Prices are through the roof on everything. 

So the lowering of rates is just as much an incentive for people to spend more, to keep the money supply for banks going as anything else. hard to make profit from interest when nobody is spending money (commercial real estate collapse anybody?)

And you can see this reflected directly in the comic market. 

The rebound is happening in comics. All indicators point that out, but it's coinciding with the dropping of interest rates. 

It's really simple: Generally speaking, making money cheaper makes asset prices rise because people spend more of it.

That's exactly what happened during the pandemic in a roundabout way. Free money reduced the value of money, causing people to spend more of it.

So whether you introduce more money into the system, or lower interest rates, they both have similar effects on how people spend it. They spend more of it.