Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Q.N.S.]

On 5/16/2024 at 4:15 PM, Chip Cataldo said:

No, it's not. It's not for legitimate sales and sellers, and the volume of sales dismisses the amateur garbage auction results and pie-in-the-sky price asks.

Overstreet getting with the times? Will catch up? They had their shot and missed. They're in the rear-view now.

Dylan was an Overstreet advisor, was he not? That's whack-a-mole-ish, yes?

Yes, Dylan Schwartz is the youngest-ever to be an Overstreet Advisor. 

I was just on Ebay looking up an Iron Man #3 at 7.0 for someone in the PGM thread. Last two sales, one was $170 and another auction for the SAME BOOK SAME GRADE went for $53.00 because bidders weren't around or didn't have enough pennies in their pocket and someone got lucky. 2 days apart, March 9th and March 11th. How is that possibly relevant? It's not. It's whack-a-mole. Meanwhile, of the multitude of dealers and shops Overstreet gets information from, lots of Iron Man #3's have been sold, raw and slabbed, and you're saying that these dealers and comic book market experts are of lesser value in establishing a price estimate of the book? Their volumes happen every day in hobby shops and conventions, but you don't want their input? It's not right. Another thing. You seem to think trading activity establishes value in comics. It doesn't. A golden age book can rise without any data for transactions, by years.....

Edited May 16 by Q.N.S.

[shadroch]

On 5/16/2024 at 1:01 PM, ThothAmon said:

I read it like spelling bird nerds read the dictionary until issue 32 or so.  Market reports were savored. Loved reading the ads also. The biggest thing was studying comic book titles and dreaming big. 

I lived vicariously through Vincent's travel segments. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 5/16/2024 at 2:40 PM, Q.N.S. said:

Yes, Dylan Schwartz is the youngest-ever to be buy an Overstreet Advisor spot. 

[alexgross.com]

interesting piece in the wsj today. apparently every investment on earth is flying high right now with the exception of comics. and yes, i know some PCH and other less common genres are doing well. but certainly SA, BA and moderns have been in the tank since the covid bubble burst. 

i wonder if this trend continues in crypto, S&P, precious metals, oil, if we won't start to see comics prices return to being in the black again sooner, rather than later. 

 

[Robot Man]

On 5/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, alexgross.com said:

interesting piece in the wsj today. apparently every investment on earth is flying high right now with the exception of comics. and yes, i know some PCH and other less common genres are doing well. but certainly SA, BA and moderns have been in the tank since the covid bubble burst. 

i wonder if this trend continues in crypto, S&P, precious metals, oil, if we won't start to see comics prices return to being in the black again sooner, rather than later. 

 

They will, but comics traditionally seem to do better when traditional investments are doing poorly. Will be a long time before comics reach Covid levels, if ever…

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 5/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, alexgross.com said:

interesting piece in the wsj today. apparently every investment on earth is flying high right now with the exception of comics. and yes, i know some PCH and other less common genres are doing well. but certainly SA, BA and moderns have been in the tank since the covid bubble burst. 

i wonder if this trend continues in crypto, S&P, precious metals, oil, if we won't start to see comics prices return to being in the black again sooner, rather than later. 

 

 

[Q.N.S.]

Just a reality check. Since 2018, the Dow has risen about 58%, and the S&P 78%. 

As of April's data, the Silver Age Index is still up 252% in the same time frame. The Bronze Age is up 110%, and the Copper Age is up 69%. 

The big difference is that stocks, metals, etc, these are at their 5-year highs, but comic books are way off their highs. 

Comics are around their supports, and still compare favorably, while the others are far extended.

 

Edited May 17 by Q.N.S.

[Telegan]

The funny thing about this is that when gold, silver, tech, crypto, energy, etc. were tanking or doing nothing, comics were going up.

Correlation vs causation, yada yada ... just because "everything else" is going up doesn't mean any other thing should be, too.  There's probably someone out there reading this thread and saying "hey, my tech stocks are still not going up - how could tech be going up?!"

That being said - everybody knows where it's at - GOLDEN AGE! ;)

[Vince G]

On 5/17/2024 at 1:49 PM, Telegan said:

The funny thing about this is that when gold, silver, tech, crypto, energy, etc. were tanking or doing nothing, comics were going up.

Correlation vs causation, yada yada ... just because "everything else" is going up doesn't mean any other thing should be, too.  There's probably someone out there reading this thread and saying "hey, my tech stocks are still not going up - how could tech be going up?!"

That being said - everybody knows where it's at - GOLDEN AGE! ;)

It's considered an 'alternative investment', in a category similar to fine art.  When those more traditional investment tank, or when they are at the height of their value, the alternative investment markets become of interest and money starts pouring in.

Edited May 17 by Vince G

[Telegan]

On 5/17/2024 at 1:59 PM, Vince G said:

It's considered an 'alternative investment', in a category similar to fine art.  When those more traditional investment tank, or when they are at the height of their value, the alternative investment markets become of interest and money starts pouring in.

Yes, that's what's been said, but ... Gold itself used to be a contrarian investment to tech.  Tech in a rising interest rate environment probably shouldn't be going up.  Oil and precious metal traders admit they usually have no idea long-term what's going to happen with those commodities (and it's somewhat been proven the past few months/years).  So these all can't be contrarian to one another and still be contrarian to comic books, can they?  Which is why I was saying when comic books were going up, energy both dumped and went up at different periods during that cycle (as an example).

Even within comic books, there are eras, genres, artists, etc, Golden Age, as an example, which have been generally holding up well so far while the rest of the market corrected.  Now if/when the rest of the comic market goes up, will that mean Golden Age will tank?  Who knows.

One thing I've always thought about this supposed relationship among these investments is the fact that stuff like gold, silver, equities, bonds, crypto, oil, etc. can be algorithmically traded.  Probably 60% (at least) of all equities trades are done by computers nowadays.  I don't know of a way to algorithmically trade comic books and fine art.  I wonder if there is a lead/lag factor in price trends in any of those type of "investments".  So, for example, "OMG, my oil stocks are crashing!  I better jump into comic books!" (I have no clue who does this, but whatever. lol).  To sell comic books will take time.  Even to buy may take time.  You're not going to quickly allocate money from one to the other unless you're being at least somewhat indiscriminate about what you're buying.  I think this, in part, is why comic books are still tanking.  We're still seeing the cascading sell-off from the COVID boom.  Whereas in stocks, it's more like "log in... click ... sold.... I'm out."

[DC#]

A little burb on the art market from Puck this week.  I took the liberty of bolding some points:  

Sotheby’s Monday blues: Let’s start with the good news: Sotheby’s, the global art auction powerhouse, made just over $267 million on Monday night, with very strong sell-through on the lots offered and only one lot withdrawn due to lack of interest. (In this case, the work was said to have been shopped around privately long enough to alienate potential bidders.) The lone withdrawal—even if the lot had been estimated at $6 million—was an encouraging sign that sellers’ expectations are getting back in line with buyers’ appetites. 

The hammer ratio for the evening tells a different story, however. Calculated by dividing the aggregate hammer price of all the sold lots against the aggregate estimate, the hammer ratio shows us the strength of bidding, and measures whether the estimate level was too high or too low. At .94, the hammer ratio signals estimates are still too high. 

Of course, you wouldn’t have needed an abacus to determine that something was off in the auction room on Monday night. Almost from the beginning of the evening, the Sotheby’s staff seemed somber. One bidder who spoke to me afterward pointed to the very thin bidding as the cause. On most lots, there was only a single bidder, possibly two. That doesn’t give the staff much to do but stand there and stare off into the distance.  

The most obvious signal of the depressed market were the hammer prices of the top two lots, which came in below the estimate level. Francis Bacon’s portrait of his former lover George Dyer, from 1966, sold for a negotiated price of $27.7 million with fees, or 18 percent below the asking price (more if you include the expected fees). Speculation in my channels is that the buyer was Turkish collector Halit Cingillioglu—and Sotheby’s did say the work ended up in a very good collection, yada yada, which would fit the theory. 

The other top lot, Howard Rachofsky’s bright yellow Lucio Fontana painting, came very close to the asking price of $20 million, but still got hammered down at $19.7 million after desultory bidding. The first bid, of $19.5 million, was presumably the third-party guarantor. The second bid, just a sliver more at $19.7 million, should have provoked a response. It didn’t. Clearly, the guarantor was happy to take their fee instead of taking home the painting

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 5/17/2024 at 3:23 PM, Telegan said:

Yes, that's what's been said, but ... Gold itself used to be a contrarian investment to tech.  Tech in a rising interest rate environment probably shouldn't be going up.  Oil and precious metal traders admit they usually have no idea long-term what's going to happen with those commodities (and it's somewhat been proven the past few months/years).  So these all can't be contrarian to one another and still be contrarian to comic books, can they?  Which is why I was saying when comic books were going up, energy both dumped and went up at different periods during that cycle (as an example).

Even within comic books, there are eras, genres, artists, etc, Golden Age, as an example, which have been generally holding up well so far while the rest of the market corrected.  Now if/when the rest of the comic market goes up, will that mean Golden Age will tank?  Who knows.

One thing I've always thought about this supposed relationship among these investments is the fact that stuff like gold, silver, equities, bonds, crypto, oil, etc. can be algorithmically traded.  Probably 60% (at least) of all equities trades are done by computers nowadays.  I don't know of a way to algorithmically trade comic books and fine art.  I wonder if there is a lead/lag factor in price trends in any of those type of "investments".  So, for example, "OMG, my oil stocks are crashing!  I better jump into comic books!" (I have no clue who does this, but whatever. lol).  To sell comic books will take time.  Even to buy may take time.  You're not going to quickly allocate money from one to the other unless you're being at least somewhat indiscriminate about what you're buying.  I think this, in part, is why comic books are still tanking.  We're still seeing the cascading sell-off from the COVID boom.  Whereas in stocks, it's more like "log in... click ... sold.... I'm out."

wait, what thread am I in? We can't have a conversation about precious metals, Al Gore ain't got no rhythm , and the price of investments vs. collectibles (Gene can probably copy/paste previous arguments here) without @tth2 and @delekkerste 

Edited May 18 by MyNameIsLegion

[Stefan_W]

If I was the owner of the 9.2 copy I would be extremely annoyed by these results that were only 40 second apart.

 

[drbanner]

Looks like this book has solidified itself as one of the iconic classic bronze age covers, always been one of my faves from this era!

[ThothAmon]

On 5/29/2024 at 9:13 AM, drbanner said:

iconic classic bronze age

Nice!  My hunt for a Tec 20 continues. Crazy 

 

[Q.N.S.]

Must be the kinky element why today's weirdo kids made that issue of Spiderman a "key". 

 

[LordRahl]

Can someone 'splain me this? Especially amid the GCC, it has Cream to Off White and it's not even top census. What am I missing?

 

[the blob]

On 5/15/2024 at 5:51 PM, Rip said:

The Overstreet has been massively off as long as I can remember collecting comics even back in the 80's and 90's.

I used to use the CBM and enter as many telephone auctions as I could to find out "real" pricing.
After winning a few here and there I would modify a want list often offering 5-30 times guide for various golden age books.
At the same time I knew many dealers that would use the Overstreet as a bible and I'd buy golden age books from them as much as I could. 
On rare occasion I still find collectors pricing their books using Overstreet.

The most valuable things in the Overstreet are the Dealers report, and the various dealer ads.

I used to go to shows in the mid/late 90s and spend $200 on BA/SA/GA books and guide would say I had $2,000. It was all make believe.

[the blob]

On 5/17/2024 at 12:22 PM, Q.N.S. said:

Just a reality check. Since 2018, the Dow has risen about 58%, and the S&P 78%. 

As of April's data, the Silver Age Index is still up 252% in the same time frame. The Bronze Age is up 110%, and the Copper Age is up 69%. 

The big difference is that stocks, metals, etc, these are at their 5-year highs, but comic books are way off their highs. 

Comics are around their supports, and still compare favorably, while the others are far extended.

 

You are not including dividend reinvestment. S&P is up 107% since 1/1/2018. Transactional costs and taxes are higher for collectibles as well.

[Stefan_W]

Can't wait for the @DC# breakdown of the current CL auction. Everything I have bid on so far went well above GPA.