Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[COI]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:51 PM, KCOComics said:

It speaks to the fact that almost since collecting comics has became a hobby, people have been saying similar things.  Demographics will change, people will dump massive collections and prices will crash. 

And I believed this. When I was a kid... 15 or 16, the first time I heard this debate at a convention, I was giddy. Plotting my time to pick up an ASM1 for a sack full of recyclable cans.  

Then when the movies started coming out and you saw books like TOS39 reach unbelievable heights, I laughed at people. Said it was ridiculous to spend thousands on a book that was worth hundreds just months earlier. 

Around 2010 I stopped waiting for the inevitable crash.  I've adopted the attitude that I can't control what happens next and I should take advantage of opportunities when they come. Because every time I've passed on an opportunity I've lived to regret it.  

 

 

Again, the demographic shift I'm talking about hasn't happened yet. People forget how young this hobby actually is, relative to other stuff like antiques and coins/currency or fine art. There are people buying and selling right now who were buying and selling the same stuff when this market was barely a market at all. We have nothing to compare the upcoming shift to. 

[october]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:22 PM, COI said:

The demographic shifts I'm talking about have yet to be proven correct, because they haven't happened yet. I'm talking about the zoomers not being able to replace the boomers, which is a long term problem, because there are two generations separating the two. 20 years ago, the zoomers were in diapers or weren't born yet, and the boomers weren't close to retirement. The fact that I'm making a point about demographics doesn't mean it's the same point that was being made 20 years ago. It doesn't mean I'm right either, but simply pointing to the past and saying essentially that because something hasn't happened in the last 20 years it won't in the next 20, isn't a particularly compelling argument either. I laid out a case as to why I think we might be in peak times; I may be totally wrong, but I don't think a hand wave and pointing to a bunch of outdated arguments from 20 years ago - as if they're the exact same arguments I'm making here - addresses those points. It might be easy to vaguely point to the future and claim an eventual collapse, but hindsight and rear-view extrapolation is also easy.

 I also understand that it's easier to be cynical about the future because on a long enough timescale everything collapses eventually. And you were right to not put too much weight in what people were saying 20 years ago because no one has a crystal ball; but we do have data on demographics, and this shift is coming. To someone else's point, it's going to affect a lot more than just comics and demographers have been on this stuff for decades. The timing and the "how" in terms of its impact on this market no one knows, but I think it's interesting to discuss. 

As to the point in bold, I agree completely and wouldn't suggest otherwise. It's what I do myself. 

But they are the same arguments, they just replace "Millennials" with "Zoomers" and "impeding Boomer retirements" with "impending Boomer deaths". It wasn't as though those macro trends were false then, just as they aren't false now, they just paint with way too broad of a brush. There are dozens of factors that play into comic prices and the loss of the original collecting generation may or may not be the brick wall it seems.

I had almost the exact same argument 10-15 years ago on here and I mentioned maybe half a dozen factors that could prop up the comic market despite diminishing Boomer participation. They were predictably scoffed at (as negativity is always more compelling than optimism) and to be fair five of those things didn't come to pass...but one did. Expansion of the comic movie universe. What other unlikely factors will we look back on ten years from now that had an outsized impact on the back issue market? Maybe we will see a renaissance in monthly floppy readership. Seems unlikely, maybe very unlikely, but vinyl was pronounced dead at one time too. The preference for digital-only goods has been greatly exaggerated and the death of physical media premature. Who knows? And that's the point. Nobody does. 

[buttock]

Re: the comments that the people at the convention are all 35-50.  That's been true of every show I've gone to over the past 30 years, because the collecting demographic is that age (well really more 35-65).  Trying to draw conclusions about a lack of people in their teens and 20s is silly.  

[COI]

On 2/23/2023 at 11:44 PM, october said:

But they are the same arguments, they just replace "Millennials" with "Zoomers" and "impeding Boomer retirements" with "impending Boomer deaths". It wasn't as though those macro trends were false then, just as they aren't false now, they just paint with way too broad of a brush. There are dozens of factors that play into comic prices and the loss of the original collecting generation may or may not be the brick wall it seems.

I had almost the exact same argument 10-15 years ago on here and I mentioned maybe half a dozen factors that could prop up the comic market despite diminishing Boomer participation. They were predictably scoffed at (as negativity is always more compelling than optimism) and to be fair five of those things didn't come to pass...but one did. Expansion of the comic movie universe. What other unlikely factors will we look back on ten years from now that had an outsized impact on the back issue market? Maybe we will see a renaissance in monthly floppy readership. Seems unlikely, maybe very unlikely, but vinyl was pronounced dead at one time too. The preference for digital-only goods has been greatly exaggerated and the death of physical media premature. Who knows? And that's the point. Nobody does. 

The reason it's not the same argument is because I'm factoring in things that hadn't happened yet, including the MCU explosion and lessons learned from the recent run-up, and I'm not arguing for things like the death of physical media at all. The demographic shift my argument hinges on hasn't happened yet.

You're right, they painted with too broad of a brush, but you're doing something similar by lumping in my arguments with theirs. I was there too, I remember those arguments, and I've made a lot of points in the past that were clearly wrong. That's fine, but the demographic issue has yet to unfold. I take your point that if you buy what you can afford to lose - if you actually "collect" - then it doesn't matter, but I find it interesting and other people do to, hence why it's being brought up here. I am genuinely interested to see what will unfold, and my guess is this is as good as it's going to get for a long time. It's just a guess.

Does a bunch of people getting the demographics argument wrong 10, 15 or 20 years ago means there's nothing left to discuss? Especially since, as you mentioned, the macro trends are what they are and haven't resolved themselves yet? We're on the same page that there is an infinite number of possible intervening factors that could turn any demographics based argument on its head, but then what is there to discuss if all we're going to talk about is what we already know for certain? In conversations like this, the speculative nature of the points being made is implied, and I'm not here telling anyone what they should or shouldn't do with their money or collections.

[ageofsilver]

A lot of good thinking in this thread. I would like to add a few thoughts concerning why some Boomers’ comics may not be flooding the marketplace, any time soon. I agree that many collections are being held by people in their middle and late years. At least for those who are knowledgeable in the graded comics world, serious consideration for timing sales of some or all one’s funny books would seem wise. However, there are obstacles aplenty. Start with the incredible costs and effort associated with pressing and grading. You know you are going to want to maximize potential, even if you find the process somewhat disagreeable. Just thinking about photographing or scanning the raw books, seems daunting, let alone deciding what should come next. So, a kind of entropy may exist for many of us. Then, negotiations for selling all of part of the hoard seems like quite the task. I suspect that I am not alone in these feelings. Of course, just because I don’t want to make progress on these matters doesn’t mean I should leave it for my family to clean up, after my demise. Speaking of stepping over to the other side; as long as the collection is graded and detailed instructions are left, a posthumous sale could provide enormous tax savings for one’s intended beneficiaries. Since we tend to have longer lifespans these days, perhaps the deluge will be further postponed. 

[comicnoir]

I say postpone.

[GermanFan]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:34 AM, EastEnd1 said:

The same demographics hold for any collectible, or stock investments, or real estate, etc... sounds like the end times are coming! 

Hopefully not the end times but certainly the end of post WW 2 US/Western lead economic, financial, cultural and military dominance of the world. And demographics play a major role in this game. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by GermanFan

[Westy Steve]

On 2/23/2023 at 11:54 PM, buttock said:

Re: the comments that the people at the convention are all 35-50.  That's been true of every show I've gone to over the past 30 years, because the collecting demographic is that age (well really more 35-65).  Trying to draw conclusions about a lack of people in their teens and 20s is silly.  

At coin shows, you seldom see people in their 20s. And that market keeps chugging along because coin collectors are spontaneously made from people in their 30s and 40s who just start showing up after they get disposable income. Do not discount the “echo boom“ and also the infill caused by immigration. Below is a is text from a Harvard study on the housing demand. (I did not write it)

It is not uncommon to hear the claim that the baby boom is being succeeded by a much smaller cohort.  But this is simply no longer true if the comparison is among similar 20-year deep generations. Immigration has backfilled the birth deficit that created the baby bust and it is now larger than the baby boom.  The 2010 decennial census counted 81.5 million baby boomers and 82.1 million baby busters. But perhaps the most relevant comparison generation to aging baby boomers should be the echo boom.  It is this generation that will largely be buying baby boomer housing and making significant contributions to their Social Security and Medicare benefits when all boomers are over the age of 65. After 2030, when the ever-smaller cohort of surviving baby boomers are age 65-84, the echo boom will be age 25-44, and far fewer from this still expanding generation will have died.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Westy Steve

[Brock]

Another look at US demographics to show that the "boomer crash" hypothesis is overstated. And these numbers are not taking into account any future immigration.

[1Cool]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:26 PM, COI said:

I didn't say that. I said the boomers constitute the largest generation of collectors, and the ones who are still around have been at it for a long time. Of course lots of them bought and sold and bought again since the '60s and '70s but if you bought in the '90s or early 2000s, you bought for pennies on the dollar relative to today on a lot of the most popular books. 

I disagree - Gen-X is a much larger pool of collectors then the Boomers even though there still are more of them.  Comics went completely mainstream in the early 90s and I don't know many 40 - 50 year olds that don't have at least a box of comics in their garage or closet.  Hard to tell who is the bigger pool of hardcore collectors who have dozens (if not hundreds) of long boxes but in terms of people who were comic book collectors at one time or another you can't beat the now 40 - 50 year olds.

Edited February 24, 2023 by 1Cool

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:54 AM, 1Cool said:

I disagree - Gen-X is a much larger pool of collectors then the Boomers even though there still are more of them.  Comics went completely mainstream in the early 90s and I don't know many 40 - 50 year olds that don't have at least a box of comics in their garage or closet.  Hard to tell who is the bigger pool of hardcore collectors who have dozens (if not hundreds) of long boxes but in terms of people who were comic book collectors at one time or another you can't beat the now 40 - 50 year olds.

Much love. 41 myself, still considered a millennial, and redeemed by God knows what, still love comics  

[1Cool]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 AM, ADAMANTIUM said:

Much love. 41 myself, still considered a millennial, and redeemed by God knows what, still love comics  

Man - Millennials are now over 40?  I'm getting old.

[ThothAmon]

On 2/22/2023 at 10:22 PM, GrasshopperFF said:

My interest into the comic book hobby, as longer term hold investments, was recent. I’ve plunged in deeply

Acknowledging that everyone has different financial circumstances and as happy as I am you have joined our hobby, I’m a little worried you will be disappointed with your returns and encourage patience. My experience is that comics of all vintages are good investments but only when you’ve had the luxury of dollar cost averaging your purchases and sales over decades. In the last couple years prices have risen sharply (last few months notwithstanding) so it’s likely that those prices will be tough to match in a recessionary economy. This is especially true for more common books that others own in great quantities at a much lower purchase price than those who purchased post pandemic. 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by ThothAmon

[october]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:54 PM, buttock said:

Re: the comments that the people at the convention are all 35-50.  That's been true of every show I've gone to over the past 30 years, because the collecting demographic is that age (well really more 35-65).  Trying to draw conclusions about a lack of people in their teens and 20s is silly.  

Yep. I've heard "the people buying expensive comics are all middle-age, people in their 20's don't care" so many times. People in their 20's don't buy expensive comics because THEY ARE POOR. I do see some at shows and on social media, but they (logically) don't jump into the deep end until they (usually) have disposable income and a steady job to generate it. 

I followed the same path. I didn't even consider comics over $30 until my late 20's because I had better things to do (partying, school) and couldn't afford them anyway. Once I had a job/wife/kids and my drinking days were done, the hobby kicked into full gear. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by october

[kimik]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:54 PM, buttock said:

Re: the comments that the people at the convention are all 35-50.  That's been true of every show I've gone to over the past 30 years, because the collecting demographic is that age (well really more 35-65).  Trying to draw conclusions about a lack of people in their teens and 20s is silly.  

Which cities are these comments referring to? The crowds here in Alberta are definitely younger the past decade than they were when I started part-time selling of multiples in the late 90s through 00s while in university/just graduated. As I have mentioned in a number of these discussions, my observation is that since 2011 the crowds are much younger and there are way more female collectors buying books. Once upon a time I knew the 10 or so buyers that would buy GA/SA/BA consistently and if they were not at a show for any reason your sales suffered (and you wondered why am I spending the time setting up). Now, there are so many younger, middle aged and OG collectors/speculators that it is fun to see how their collections progress from Copper to Bronze to Silver and then Golden Age (for some, not all). And, the cosplay game has definitely improved over the past 20 or so years.  

Another trend to younger is the age of store owners/part time sellers setting up at shows. When I started doing them, I was the youngest seller by far at 22. Now, at 47, I am one of the few older part-time sellers at the shows (but still younger than the people I set up with ). The rest are similar age and younger sellers, which is great to see.

There are also a lot of younger collector-speculators that may come to shows to buy books but are mostly active buying and selling online.

Edited February 24, 2023 by kimik

[EastEnd1]

It's always good to put real facts to a discussion... here's a pie chart from Insider Advantage (a source frequently used by corporate marketers) on the current make-up of the US population.  Each segment is roughly equivalent.  The Boomer segment rightly gets out-sized attention because as a percentage of the total population at time of birth it was historically very large.  But the US population was less than 200 million during the baby boom years.  The US population today is 300-350 million, so while these later segments may have proportionally represented fewer births, in actual numbers they are comparably large.  The largest segment of the US population today are Millenials, not Boomers.

And a second point, at every point in US history that the country has faced growth headwinds due to demographics, it has "righted the ship" through immigration.  As an immigrant nation, we're actually VERY good at it.  And certainly the demand to get into the US is as strong today as it's ever been.  Think we're going to be fine for quite a while still.       

 

 

[buttock]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:34 AM, kimik said:

Which cities are these comments referring to? The crowds here in Alberta are definitely younger the past decade than they were when I started part-time selling of multiples in the late 90s through 00s while in university/just graduated. As I have mentioned in a number of these discussions, my observation is that since 2011 the crowds are much younger and there are way more female collectors buying books. Once upon a time I knew the 10 or so buyers that would buy GA/SA/BA consistently and if they were not at a show for any reason your sales suffered (and you wondered why am I spending the time setting up). Now, there are so many younger, middle aged and OG collectors/speculators that it is fun to see how their collections progress from Copper to Bronze to Silver and then Golden Age (for some, not all). And, the cosplay game has definitely improved over the past 20 or so years.  

Another trend to younger is the age of store owners/part time sellers setting up at shows. When I started doing them, I was the youngest seller by far at 22. Now, at 47, I am one of the few older part-time sellers at the shows (but still younger than the people I set up with ). The rest are similar age and younger sellers, which is great to see.

There are also a lot of younger collector-speculators that may come to shows to buy books but are mostly active buying and selling online.

Go back a couple of pages for the comments, but they've been going on here for the entirety of my 2 decades on the boards.  

[buttock]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:32 AM, october said:

Yep. I've heard "the people buying expensive comics are all middle-age, people in their 20's don't care" so many times. People in their 20's don't buy expensive comics because THEY ARE POOR. I do see some at shows and on social media, but they (logically) don't jump into the deep end until they (usually) have disposable income and a steady job to generate it. 

I followed the same path. I didn't even consider comics over $30 until my late 20's because I had better things to do (partying, school) and couldn't afford them anyway. Once I had a job/wife/kids and my drinking days were done, the hobby kicked into full gear. 

The worst part is that we're now "old guys" Andy.  

[GrasshopperFF]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:19 AM, ThothAmon said:

Acknowledging that everyone has different financial circumstances and as happy as I am you have joined our hobby, I’m a little worried you will be disappointed with your returns and encourage patience. My experience is that comics of all vintages are good investments but only when you’ve had the luxury of dollar cost averaging your purchases and sales over decades. In the last couple years prices have risen sharply (last few months notwithstanding) so it’s likely that those prices will be tough to match in a recessionary economy. This is especially true for more common books that others own in great quantities at a much lower purchase price than those who purchased post pandemic. 

 

Where was this advice 2 years ago?! I could have been prepared for this! Who knew?

Yes, my timing into the comic book hobby could not have been worse. Jumping in at the peak, and already seeing books like Hulk 181 (7.5 grade) dropping 20%. The X-Men 4 (8.5 grade) I way overpaid for in a Heritage auction has dropped even more. It’s a good thing I didn’t need the money used for a mortgage or other necessities!

Long term (defined as 10 years or more) I feel strongly I’ll be ahead. So, no, I will not be disappointed. In the meantime, this dip was made for buying! 

[Bookery]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:33 PM, october said:

I think reminding everyone that the exact same demographic cliff arguments have been present on the boards since it's inception is worth pointing out, as well as the fact that they have yet to be correct. 

Except that they have always been correct!  The straw-man argument is always presented that comics (or any pop culture collectibles market) will not "crash", when no one ever made the "crash" argument to begin with.  But there is, and always will be, a slow ebb of declining interest as cultures and interests change over time.  Comic books once sold massive quantities of issues across all sorts of genres.  When I opened my shop in 1984 I still had numerous collectors for westerns, TV and movie tie-ins, Classics Illustrated, Disney, and other genres.  Most of these have indeed declined in interest since then.  Sure, I can sell these genres quickly out of the $5 boxes... but that simply prices them at the same level as a new-release comic.  Comics books weren't just about super-heroes any more than fiction novels were just about elves and orcs.  But over time the comic market keeps contracting as more and more genres fall by the wayside and new-release production numbers keep shrinking.  The same thing has happened with movie posters and lobby cards... the horror and sci-fi genres still do well, but almost everything else has declined in interest other than obvious rarities.

Most collectors, even on these boards, aren't really "comic book collectors" per se... they are super-hero collectors.  They buy comics, action figures, statues, movie-memorabilia, all tied to super-heroes.  Comic book audiences, except for very small niche independents, have consolidated down to primarily one of two genres (horror still does well also).  So yes, those that have been predicting that each new generation will have declining interest in comic books as a whole have been absolutely correct.  (And that doesn't mean any pop-culture collectible can't have a temporary resurgence... they often do). 

Young people also forget, when talking about how something will be popular "forever",  just how brief of a time comic books have existed so far.  Both of my parents are still around and they were born before there was such a thing as a super-hero.  When I was born, Superman was only 20 years old, and I pre-date Spider-Man.  And when talking comic books as a "collectible"... that didn't really take off until the early 1970s with the introduction of Overstreet and various fanzines.  All in all... a remarkably short period in which to declare something's enduring popularity, or lack of.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Bookery