AF 9.6 coming to auction 7 7

[Glassman10]

On 9/3/2021 at 2:54 PM, pemart1966 said:

Sometimes I think that it's just the NUMBER that sells...

Some wise guy said "Buy the book, not the grade."

[peewee22]

On 9/3/2021 at 3:00 PM, Glassman10 said:

Some wise guy said "Buy the book, not the grade."

May be me 'cause I always buy the book. 

[fishbone]

On 9/3/2021 at 11:48 AM, Glassman10 said:

bob wrote me this morning when I asked and indicated if he had a 5.0 it would be between 65-75K.  I think the folks who have the 1.5- 35's stashed will do quite well. 

yup, sounds right

[Dark Knight]

The Goldin CGC 8.5 white page copy was the one I used to own . Came from the Saginaw collection which was auctioned on ebay by Sparkle City.

[bluechip]

On 9/3/2021 at 11:38 AM, Aman619 said:

As he said.  After the single 9.6 sold for 1.1m privately, and a few more 9.6s showed up the widely held opinion was that they were worth far less than 1.1m. It made sense then just as you suggest it would again with a 9.8 showing up. No one knows if there’s a 9.8 out there in the raw or in a 9.6 holder. Could be, as always with these things. Btw one of the 9.6s reportedly has OW/W pages, a notch higher than the others. Does that affect its value relative to the others?  Maybe White pages might. Who knows. 
 

also we appear to be reaching a point where more copies at the top is a feature not a bug. Copies change hands more often yielding more sales data points and allows more buyers and creates competition. More so than s single HGC that sits in a collection for 10-20 years 

"more copies at the top" will feed the value increases even as it increases the potential for corrections.

The paradox has more than one cause, but a big one is this:  If you're selling something rare, then the more people there are who own something similar to sell the more people there will be voicing support for the value of the item you're selling and even bidding on it to make sure it doesn't sell for much less than they believe theirs is worth.   And since that "something similar" could be any book which simply has a similar grade number, the value-enhancing effect can be extended to many, or virtually any, other books. 

[NoMan]

On 9/3/2021 at 2:42 PM, Dark Knight said:

The Goldin CGC 8.5 white page copy was the one I used to own . Came from the Saginaw collection which was auctioned on ebay by Sparkle 

Edited September 3, 2021 by NoMan

[Chicago Boy]

On 9/3/2021 at 4:42 PM, Dark Knight said:

The Goldin CGC 8.5 white page copy was the one I used to own . Came from the Saginaw collection which was auctioned on ebay by Sparkle City.

Why did you move on from it if you don't mind me asking ?

[Dark Knight]

On 9/3/2021 at 4:44 PM, Chicago Boy said:

Why did you move on from it if you don't mind me asking ?

I believe at that time, I changed my taste in collecting from silver age to golden age.  I started buying some GA keys with the funds.

[LordRahl]

On 9/3/2021 at 11:50 AM, pemart1966 said:

If that's the case re AF slabbed PQ then someone is going to be paying north of $3M for a copy that isn't even the best graded copy.

With this and the unknowns:  e.g. whether there's a 9.8 currently graded as a 9.6 (or less ); how many 9.6/9.8s are out there ungraded etc - paying this kind of bread is ridiculous.  

 

 

 

This viewpoint is frankly ridiculous. It's impossible to know if there are more 9.4/9.6/9.8 copies of ANY book sitting around raw in a closet somewhere. We know (with a pretty high level of confidence) that there is a higher grade Action 1 out there raw than the current highest graded copy, so does that mean that the current highest graded copy isn't worth 7 figures? No, it does not. There could be dozens of 9.6 and 9.8 AF 15's out there. Just as possible that there are 0 more. It doesn't matter as they aren't graded and for sale. The available supply is tiny relative to the demand. What may or may not happen 5/10/20 years from now has no bearing on what they are worth today.

[Mmehdy]

I think the odds increase of a 1962 raw book higher graded copy clearly is in the AF15 favor as opposed Action 1. I agree we do not know, but I would be much safer with the total number of graded copies of Action 1 vs AF to say once you get to the lofty 2/3 M dollar price range, what I am saying is I would sleep better at night knowing my 2/3M is in Action 1 rather than AF 15 from a purely business or investment risk factors. That being said, I know of at least one ultra high graded AF which has not been graded conservative, in the 9.6 range from a very long term collection as well as ungraded Action #1's so we can say with reasonable certainty that the census will change over time. I agree with Pemart thinking...whether a 9.8 or a 9.6 hits is a matter of time. The effect will be unknown as to the whether it ups the stakes on the existing copies, but I would say a 9.8  record breaking might actually increase all the under copies whether it is Action 1 or AF15...time will tell....

Edited September 5, 2021 by Mmehdy

[bluechip]

On 9/4/2021 at 5:57 PM, LordRahl said:

This viewpoint is frankly ridiculous. It's impossible to know if there are more 9.4/9.6/9.8 copies of ANY book sitting around raw in a closet somewhere. We know (with a pretty high level of confidence) that there is a higher grade Action 1 out there raw than the current highest graded copy, so does that mean that the current highest graded copy isn't worth 7 figures? No, it does not. There could be dozens of 9.6 and 9.8 AF 15's out there. Just as possible that there are 0 more. It doesn't matter as they aren't graded and for sale. The available supply is tiny relative to the demand. What may or may not happen 5/10/20 years from now has no bearing on what they are worth today.

Way too argumentative.

It is not just opinion that there are more AF 15s, and that copies are far more likely to be in great shape.  That is not just overwhelmingly intuitive but also born out by indisputable facts, therefore totally "impossible to know".  People pointing that out should not be insulted or responded to as if they have expressed a specific desire to devalue your books.     

[Aman619]

yes.  knowing whats out there should be in any buyers knowledge base. Knowing that theres better copies should be taken into consideration when buying the Highest Graded Copy so you aren't blindly chasing the "best".  This was more of a crapshoot early with the census.  You had to work out in your head whether the 9.2 highest graded copy you wanted to buy was a placeholder, or would survive as top copy.  I'll say from experience that now, in 2021, its pretty rare that some of mine did survive.  Early DCs are far scarcer than Marvels keys, but somehow a few higher graded copies were squeezed out of the ether!  so do I think the top census copies will survive?  Id have to say probably not.  Specifically for AF15, Id say 50/50 theres a 9.8 out there.  Perhaps if those who know of or have seen these pristine copies saw them with CGC eyes lately, they might be candidates for another 9.6 or 9.8.  Or, perhaps CGC itself will view the next one a a touch better than the 9.6s.  Records were meant to be broken!  But I trust they won't just give out a top grade on a top book unless it earns it.  the fact that theres so many 9.4 or better copies of AF15 just blows my mind really.  why wouldn't there be a few more.

[pemart1966]

Allow me to clarify my earlier statement wherein I said that this copy wasn't even the best graded copy.  Yes it's tied as the best numerically graded copy but someone stated that there is likely one with the same numerical grade but with better PQ.  

So although this copy bears the same numerical grade, it's not the best copy in its grade when PQ is factored in.

Edited September 5, 2021 by pemart1966

[UncleBEN]

I am not so sure there is a 9.8 out there in the wild, anything is possible I suppose. I do know of some very high graded raw copies but 9.8 is an entirely other ballgame. Look at ASM 1 with in my mind a much more forgiving cover with 1 9.8 in the census. 

 

9.8 NEAR MINT/MINT (NM/MT): Back to Top

Nearly perfect in every way with only minor imperfections that keep it from the next higher grade. Only subtle bindery or printing defects are allowed. Cover is flat with no surface wear. Inks are bright with high reflectivity and minimal fading. Corners are cut square and sharp. Small, inconspicuous, lightly penciled, stamped or inked arrival dates are acceptable as long as they are in an unobtrusive location. Spine is tight and flat. Staples must be original, generally centered and clean with no rust. Paper is white, supple and fresh. Only the slightest interior tears are allowed.

 

I pasted this just to refresh my memory, and looking back at marvel's paper quality on this issue I really wonder if a 9.8 is possible, perhaps a gifted grade ala Promise Collection?

Certainly anxious to be proven wrong :P

[Aman619]

On 9/5/2021 at 5:42 PM, pemart1966 said:

Allow me to clarify my earlier statement wherein I said that this copy wasn't even the best graded copy.  Yes it's tied as the best numerically graded copy but someone stated that there is likely one with the same numerical grade but with better PQ.  

So although this copy bears the same numerical grade, it's not the best copy in its grade when PQ is factored in.

Well, to me the better page quality copy IS the best copy… for those who care to put them under the microscope to pick any edge between them . It’s not like it’s White pages and all the rest are cream/OW.  And not everyone will care cause it’s only technically the best copy.  Nearly everyone at this point would want any of the copies, unless one is known to brittle or browning or rusty staples, etc.   I’m sure the buyer of this copy will be ecstatic… unless the underbidder chases him far into an obscene price to win it.

[Glassman10]

Right now, the only methodology to account for copies is the census and the census does CGC graded books. It doesn't account for private sales of raw copies and until the raw copy gets the good housekeeping seal of approval, speculation is just that- speculation.  I would certainly agree that there are a bunch of copies in the wild ungraded for AF15 but the numbers offered up are always conjecture. 

I would also certainly think that after all this time, that more Action 1 have had ample time to expose themselves. 

 

What is the case is that the quantity of high grade copies that are registered as 9.4 or 9.6 can be manipulated to change the census slightly. Then, we get to how to auction is to be paid for and whether it's truly an auction or a seller buying back his own book but in the meantime raising the value of other AF15's out there regardless of condition.  The whole thing, conjecture and all is quite fishy to me. But "Hey" Everyone who owns one is making money. 

[jimjum12]

On 9/5/2021 at 7:47 PM, Glassman10 said:

Right now, the only methodology to account for copies is the census and the census does CGC graded books. It doesn't account for private sales of raw copies and until the raw copy gets the good housekeeping seal of approval, speculation is just that- speculation.  I would certainly agree that there are a bunch of copies in the wild ungraded for AF15 but the numbers offered up are always conjecture. 

I would also certainly think that after all this time, that more Action 1 have had ample time to expose themselves. 

 

What is the case is that the quantity of high grade copies that are registered as 9.4 or 9.6 can be manipulated to change the census slightly. Then, we get to how to auction is to be paid for and whether it's truly an auction or a seller buying back his own book but in the meantime raising the value of other AF15's out there regardless of condition.  The whole thing, conjecture and all is quite fishy to me. But "Hey" Everyone who owns one is making money. 

It may not be the total flip-flop that the manipulation crowd likes to portray .... even if the buyer and seller are the same, if the increase is significant it will still cost them... for example, if they paid 1 mil for the 9.4 and then pressed it to 9.6 and auctioned it off at 5 mil, they still have to come out of pocket with 4 mil to retain ownership of their book. It's not a shell game at all. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Aman619]

Those holding HG raw copies of Action 1 and potential 9.6 or 9.8 AF15s are doing so for the same reason.  The books aren’t for sale. It’s not easy to pay the fees without a sale in the near future.  And some of these are old school collectors not actively slabbing, so their books are safely tucked away til some future date.  And probably a bunch of other reasons..

[tth2]

I would be surprised if there was a 9.8 copy of AF 15 out there, although of course anything's possible.  But as was discussed earlier in this thread, 9.8 is a tough grade and not generally seen in Silver top keys, whether Marvel or DC.

The likeliest source of a 9.8 would be from a pedigree.  The 2 9.8 X-Men 1s are from the Curator and Pacific Coast pedigrees.  But we already know that the Curator, PC and White Mountain AF 15s are not 9.8s and not capable of being "improved" to 9.8.  

Having said that, the 9.8 ASM 1 is not from a pedigree as far as I know, but it's the exception that proves the rule.

[MGsimba77]

According to the census theres more restored AF15s in the highest grades than blue. Maybe alot of them had it removed I don't know? I think the purple 9.8 AF15 is trimmed to death. If there's actually numerous NM AFs out there ungraded then maybe a good chance it's due to restoration. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by MGsimba77