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THE MARVELS starring Brie Larson, Iman Vellani and Teyonna Parris (2023)
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Started by paperheart,

3,126 posts in this topic

Prince Namor

Prince Namor

Posted
Posted
On 9/13/2022 at 3:25 PM, Gatsby77 said:

You're right. 

It's nowhere close to an accurate comparison - because Captain Marvel did 80% more revenue in domestic box office alone than Justice League.

But it's not a false equivalence:

DC absolutely expected Justice League Part 1 to do $1+ billion worldwide - even after BvS fell short of $900 million.

But it's revisionist history - asserted well after the fact - to say Captain Marvel was *expected* to do $1 billion from the jump.

It was no more expected pre-release than the idea that folks legit expected Black Panther to do $1+ billion.

Deadline: Captain Marvel Opening Weekend: Around $100M - Early projection (it did $153m)

https://deadline.com/2019/02/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1202557433/

Yeah, I don't think anyone 'predicts' a movie is going to make a billion... and I don't remember anyone HERE or online speaking that it was any kind of a guarantee to hit that. In fact, there was some conservative estimates nationally, that spoke about the 'controversies' concerning Larson and things she said, and how it might hurt the movies overall appeal. 

The Opening weekend most likely WAS helped by its Endgame connection, but ultimately, for a movie to hit a BILLION, it needs really strong Multiple Viewing sales, which comes from popularity of the movie itself... 

...Which no one can accurately predict until it's released and we see how the audience reacts. (The actual audience reaction, NOT the ridiculous number of online trolls who tried to game the reviews). Overall, the prediction seems as if it was based upon Wonder Woman's actual opening weekend as most predictors just weren't sure which way this movie might go...

Here, this click-bait dimwit actually breaks it all down pretty succinctly and ends up hedging - which is how everyone seemed to be towards the movie:

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 7:12 AM, Prince Namor said:

Deadline: Captain Marvel Opening Weekend: Around $100M - Early projection (it did $153m)

https://deadline.com/2019/02/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1202557433/

Spoiler

Yeah, I don't think anyone 'predicts' a movie is going to make a billion... and I don't remember anyone HERE or online speaking that it was any kind of a guarantee to hit that. In fact, there was some conservative estimates nationally, that spoke about the 'controversies' concerning Larson and things she said, and how it might hurt the movies overall appeal. 

The Opening weekend most likely WAS helped by its Endgame connection, but ultimately, for a movie to hit a BILLION, it needs really strong Multiple Viewing sales, which comes from popularity of the movie itself... 

...Which no one can accurately predict until it's released and we see how the audience reacts. (The actual audience reaction, NOT the ridiculous number of online trolls who tried to game the reviews). Overall, the prediction seems as if it was based upon Wonder Woman's actual opening weekend as most predictors just weren't sure which way this movie might go...

Here, this click-bait dimwit actually breaks it all down pretty succinctly and ends up hedging - which is how everyone seemed to be towards the movie:

Here is where once the hype dies down you can tell how much moviegoers connected with a film directly: home theater sales.

Recognizing Disney is the king (or queen depending on your viewpoint) in the home theater sales space, many of their releases dominate the shelves. Even with Iron Man once they had acquired the distribution rights from Paramount a few years after buying Marvel Entertainment, it then released a two-disc bluray edition, bluray special edition, bluray/digital copy, 3-D bluray/digital there is a reason why Iron Man home theater sales are above most other superhero movies.

01_WW_BO.png.8093395fac7cbf8524506a657b51f05a.png

 

02_CM_BO.png.9fff67abc8f5c55bfa64a97349d7665d.png

Yet when we compare the two modern female superhero movies with their first-ever live film release there is a tale of two cities. Captain Marvel had massive results in the theater. Yet with home theater sales, it trails Wonder Woman by 32% just in the domestic market alone (international home theater sales are extremely difficult to tally).

Where did all that excitement go from theater to home sales when clearly Captain Marvel was the much bigger box office candidate? Yet both conveyed female empowerment and a celebration of female contributions to their given franchises and therefore would have repeat viewings from female fans in celebration. Does clickbait-dimwit hit on that?

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Prince Namor

Prince Namor

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Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 2:30 PM, Bosco685 said:

Here is where once the hype dies down you can tell how much moviegoers connected with a film directly: home theater sales.

Recognizing Disney is the king (or queen depending on your viewpoint) in the home theater sales space, many of their releases dominate the shelves. Even with Iron Man once they had acquired the distribution rights from Paramount a few years after buying Marvel Entertainment, it then released a two-disc bluray edition, bluray special edition, bluray/digital copy, 3-D bluray/digital there is a reason why Iron Man home theater sales are above most other superhero movies.

01_WW_BO.png.8093395fac7cbf8524506a657b51f05a.png

 

02_CM_BO.png.9fff67abc8f5c55bfa64a97349d7665d.png

Yet when we compare the two modern female superhero movies with their first-ever live film release there is a tale of two cities. Captain Marvel had massive results in the theater. Yet with home theater sales, it trails Wonder Woman by 32% just in the domestic market alone (international home theater sales are extremely difficult to tally).

Where did all that excitement go from theater to home sales when clearly Captain Marvel was the much bigger box office candidate? Yet both conveyed female empowerment and a celebration of female contributions to their given franchises and therefore would have repeat viewings from female fans in celebration. Does clickbait-dimwit hit on that?

Do those numbers include digital sales? 
If not, Digital movie sales exploded every year from 2018 up and may explain some of the difference. 

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 5:59 PM, Prince Namor said:

Do those numbers include digital sales? 
If not, Digital movie sales exploded every year from 2018 up and may explain some of the difference. 

That may be something you read that mistakenly referenced something else. There was a 18% jump in digital sales between 2018 to 2019. But that is comprised of ALL digital sales (including legacy movies and TV shows sold digitally). So movies such as the release of Casablanca, Spaceballs, Blade Runner" The Final Cut and any previous movie is tallied into those totals. Not just new movie releases.

279489288_DigitalSales2018.PNG.cbc1b5acc6b5f9b7dd3e3774f2f72caf.PNG

To attribute that 18% increase to Captain Marvel digital sales and that within one year it had experienced that much disc reduction, I'd like to see those numbers too. MPAA reports these details every year.

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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

Posted
Posted
On 9/23/2022 at 2:30 PM, Bosco685 said:

Here is where once the hype dies down you can tell how much moviegoers connected with a film directly: home theater sales.

Recognizing Disney is the king (or queen depending on your viewpoint) in the home theater sales space, many of their releases dominate the shelves. Even with Iron Man once they had acquired the distribution rights from Paramount a few years after buying Marvel Entertainment, it then released a two-disc bluray edition, bluray special edition, bluray/digital copy, 3-D bluray/digital there is a reason why Iron Man home theater sales are above most other superhero movies.

01_WW_BO.png.8093395fac7cbf8524506a657b51f05a.png

 

02_CM_BO.png.9fff67abc8f5c55bfa64a97349d7665d.png

Yet when we compare the two modern female superhero movies with their first-ever live film release there is a tale of two cities. Captain Marvel had massive results in the theater. Yet with home theater sales, it trails Wonder Woman by 32% just in the domestic market alone (international home theater sales are extremely difficult to tally).

Where did all that excitement go from theater to home sales when clearly Captain Marvel was the much bigger box office candidate? Yet both conveyed female empowerment and a celebration of female contributions to their given franchises and therefore would have repeat viewings from female fans in celebration. Does clickbait-dimwit hit on that?

Nah - paging @Jaydogrules - 'cuz haven't you heard?

Post-theatrical digital sales are just "ancillaries" :insane:

But in all seriousness - theatrical staying power matters a lot. It's indicative of word-of-mouth (positive or negative) and the reality is Captain Marvel had incredible legs - because people liked what they saw, and went to see it multiple times.

In fact, its legs were at least comparable to - if not better - than those of The Dark Knight Rises.

Dark Knight Rises
Opening Weekend: $160.9 million

Weekend 2: $62.1 million (-61.4%)

Weekend 3: $35.7 million (-42.5%)

Weekend 4: $19.0 million (-46.9%)

Weekend 5: $11.0 million (-42%)

Total after 5 weekends: $409.8 million

Captain Marvel

Opening Weekend: $153.4 million 

Weekend 2: $68.0 million (-55.7%)

Weekend 3: $34.3 million (-49.6%)

Weekend 4: $20.7 million (-39.7%)

Weekend 5: $12.4 million (-39.8%)

Total after 5 weekends: $373.9 million

Captain Marvel then went on to close this gap in domestic totals vs. The Dark Knight Rises from $35.9 million at the end of 5 weeks to just $21.3 million by the end of its run ($426.8 million vs. $448.1 million).

In other words, people liked it - and went back to see it with repeat viewings that would not have occurred if with either bad word-of-mouth or simply obligatory watches as an Endgame lead-in.

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 8:38 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Nah - paging @Jaydogrules - 'cuz haven't you heard?

Post-theatrical digital sales are just "ancillaries" :insane:

But in all seriousness - theatrical staying power matters a lot. It's indicative of word-of-mouth (positive or negative) and the reality is Captain Marvel had incredible legs - because people liked what they saw, and went to see it multiple times.

In fact, its legs were at least comparable to - if not better - than those of The Dark Knight Rises.

Dark Knight Rises
Opening Weekend: $160.9 million

Weekend 2: $62.1 million (-61.4%)

Weekend 3: $35.7 million (-42.5%)

Weekend 4: $19.0 million (-46.9%)

Weekend 5: $11.0 million (-42%)

Total after 5 weekends: $409.8 million

Captain Marvel

Opening Weekend: $153.4 million 

Weekend 2: $68.0 million (-55.7%)

Weekend 3: $34.3 million (-49.6%)

Weekend 4: $20.7 million (-39.7%)

Weekend 5: $12.4 million (-39.8%)

Total after 5 weekends: $373.9 million

Captain Marvel then went on to close this gap in domestic totals vs. The Dark Knight Rises from $35.9 million at the end of 5 weeks to just $21.3 million by the end of its run ($426.8 million vs. $448.1 million).

In other words, people liked it - and went back to see it with repeat viewings that would not have occurred if with either bad word-of-mouth or simply obligatory watches as an Endgame lead-in.

And yet theatrical revenue share leads to the biggest impact to profit results. Which even you have noted when it fits a narrative.

  1. Domestic: 50-60% to studio, 40-50% to theater chains
  2. International (non-China): 40% to studios, 60% to theater chains
  3. China: 25% to studios, 75% to PRC

With the Home Theater Market, studios (estimated) keeps 85% of the profits.

I'm not sure how comparing the 3rd Batman film in a three-film franchise matters to the 21st MCU film with a fanatical connected world franchise which was inserted between a two-part massive Avengers story in the Infinity Stone Saga. They are not on equal footing when you factor in that reality.

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Bird

Bird

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 8:52 AM, Bosco685 said:

Dark Knight Rises
Opening Weekend: $160.9 million

Weekend 2: $62.1 million (-61.4%)

Weekend 3: $35.7 million (-42.5%)

Weekend 4: $19.0 million (-46.9%)

Weekend 5: $11.0 million (-42%)

Total after 5 weekends: $409.8 million

Captain Marvel

Opening Weekend: $153.4 million 

Weekend 2: $68.0 million (-55.7%)

Weekend 3: $34.3 million (-49.6%)

Weekend 4: $20.7 million (-39.7%)

Weekend 5: $12.4 million (-39.8%)

Total after 5 weekends: $373.9 million

lots more people went to see DK during the week it seems than CM...nerds!

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Bosco685

Bosco685

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Posted (edited)
On 9/24/2022 at 8:57 AM, Bird said:

lots more people went to see DK during the week it seems than CM...nerds!

After the first week remember there was a little event that then held moviegoers back from attending theater showings until they got comfortable. Just a little thing.

Or as some would refer to it, "A tiny blip!" And of course comparable to Captain Marvel, as I had heard there was a similar event where a woman tripped on a theater carpet going into a showing.

fall-popcorn.gif.2cc9d03316d5a85aab7e39f02fcc3756.gif

Solid comparison @Gatsby77 :baiting:

Edited by Bosco685
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Cozmo-One

Cozmo-One

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 8:02 AM, ▫️ said:

I don’t doubt that. People are also stupid. Have you met the general population? Isn’t Avatar the highest grossing movie of all time? 

I liked the first Captain Marvel, in particular the themes around standing back up after being knocked down (in life, etc). Also enjoyed watching Ms. Marvel with my daughter, so very much looking forward to this sequel.

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fastballspecial

fastballspecial

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Posted (edited)
On 9/24/2022 at 8:02 AM, ▫️ said:

I don’t doubt that. People are also stupid. Have you met the general population? Isn’t Avatar the highest grossing movie of all time? 

Its made for the general audience. If only hard core comic fans saw it wouldn't make a profit. 

I am just happy seeing my heroes on the big screen. I spent decades as a kid hoping for it. 
Many need to remember that.

 

 

Edited by fastballspecial
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