2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT 8 8

[GermanFan]

I rarely buy, nor do I sell. I just try to weather the storm and wait the insanity out.

[tabcom]

Over the years I have found this subject to be informative as well as entertaining.

 

After seeing the popularity of the Promise Collection last summer and the commentary that followed, I made the decision to sell about a third of my collection in the fall.

 

In early March (right before the 50-point rate hike), I took the proceeds and started to dollar cost average shorting the NASDAQ (SQQQ).

When at some point down the road, the narrative maker FED says the magic words that gives the all clear sign, I'll swap SQQQs for TQQQs.

 

Even later, I'll feel frisky and start buying comics again.

[lou_fine]

On 5/23/2022 at 1:49 AM, GermanFan said:

I rarely buy, nor do I sell. I just try to weather the storm and wait the insanity out.

Ahh...........the old Warren Buffet approach in terms of spending time in the market, as opposed to trying to time the market.  

 

[lou_fine]

On 5/23/2022 at 1:19 AM, szav said:

I thought Mitch was talking about selling/going to cash with comics now and buying back later … but yes a bit late to do that with stocks now too unless you think we’re nowhere near the bottom yet.  

Always a possibility, especially if something like a recession takes hold, but don't really see that happening with the way the consumer is spending and seemingly throwing money after being "locked down" for the past two years.  

[Mmehdy]

On 5/23/2022 at 1:19 AM, szav said:

I thought Mitch was talking about selling/going to cash with comics now and buying back later … but yes a bit late to do that with stocks now too unless you think we’re nowhere near the bottom yet.  

 

On 5/22/2022 at 2:05 PM, szav said:

This probably depends on how one is playing the tax games on these.  For those who bought in at the bottom decades ago, if they're actually paying the gains/collectibles tax, they're going to need a really big crash, ~30% or more to then buy them back and not have suffered a loss vs having just passed these to their heirs tax free (assuming they're under the estate tax max),  So much nuance here, depending upon one's individual situation. 

Cashing out and buying back in (if there is a large crash) might work for some people, but it seems like a pretty risky proposition for most I'd say ...again assuming there's not some legit way to work around the tax issue.

 

In California,  there will be tax rate as high  as 34% state and federal combined. But if you agree there is a correction coming in terms of price and possibly demand I do not see 30% to be a high risk to wait for the potential upside if there is a glut of GA/SA books hitting the market at the same time. having cash could prove to be a very wise move.

 2 possibly 3 years from now we are all gonna look back and say...this trend or amount of correction was in front of us all the time and we should of done this or that. I think the safest way to proceed is  if necessary pay the tax and sell the  questionable conditioned books with either major or minor defects and park it and standby. Inaction could cost you, selling will cost you....tough world out there, but as a great speaker once said, when times get tough, the tough get tougher. For those waiting for some kind of break, on a major/minor mega GA keys that opportunity might present itself with current market conditions of the yo-yo stock and bond market.in the next two years, maybe even at the end of this year. Hang in there.  

 Any other downside I am missing here?

 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

On 5/23/2022 at 1:29 PM, szav said:

Wow new Mitch is much more bearish than old Mitch.  I’m not convinced the coming correction will be greater than 10-20% for GA in any grade.

All these great raw collections  supposedly siting around that will get brought to market in the event of a recession… why wouldn’t they have already come out when prices were flying high?  If anything people will sit on them even more firmly while they wait for prices to climb back up.

Now if you believe it’s all crypto money driving this, and margin calls force people to liquidate, you’ll just see resales on all these recent items… not new material brought to market when prices are lower.

 I am not bearish, just realistic that they incredible price growth rate of GA Mega Keys can not keep going at its  current  price acceleration. At current/ future  super high Ga Mega Key price points it  will eliminate all true comic book collectors and leave it too the pure investor speculator whom I do not trust to hold on a long term basis in their quest for immediate profit. If the Mega GA/SA  price market stalls either because the air is too thin or that economic conditions change negativity then it should trickle down reductions in demand  to the next price tier and so on.

 It is great that we GA/SA comic book collectors have seen our books make price/ news  headlines every Ha signature auction, the problem is we have to live with it afterwards. Just because the price market of GA/SA books is up does not mean long time collections will hit the market, but a changing economic world in which the headwinds are mighty strong can shake some collectors loose which would otherwise not be on the market,  Combine that with known Ga comic books collectors pairing down, the dumpster investors and we have created a perfect storm of increased supply in the GA/SA comic book market.

 Making the right call now, before the real eye of the storm hits could increase you GA/SA collection to much greater heights for the future.

 I get you say max flux 10-20% and that is very possible, I say 30% minimum or greater, anybody else what to take a guess at the possible bottom?

Edited May 23, 2022 by Mmehdy

[Ian Winner]

On 5/22/2022 at 4:36 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Good observations, Cat. I was a tad fearful of a deep GA correction at first, but those concerns were quickly replaced with the hope I could go back to acquiring books without having to cough up an arm and a leg. Last night Goldin hammered out $1.7 Mil on their 6.5 Tec 27, so it seems the money guys haven’t jumped ship. And my fever dream of lower prices seems to be receding. . .

While Dec 27 still performed well (but maybe not as well as hoped compared to the recent Action #1 sale), the other books in the auction definately did not overachieve like All-American 61. I am not sure if that is the because of the platform or beginning of a correction(though probably a slight one).

  

[lou_fine]

On 5/23/2022 at 3:27 PM, Ian Winner said:

While Dec 27 still performed well (but maybe not as well as hoped compared to the recent Action #1 sale), the other books in the auction definately did not overachieve like All-American 61.

Not sure what you mean by the All-American 61 overachieving when lower graded copies have sold for more money on both the Heritage and CC auction platforms earlier this year?  

[Cat-Man_America]

On 5/23/2022 at 4:35 PM, Mmehdy said:

 I am not bearish, just realistic that they incredible price growth rate of GA Mega Keys can not keep going at its  current  price acceleration. At current/ future  super high Ga Mega Key price points it  will eliminate all true comic book collectors and leave it too the pure investor speculator whom I do not trust to hold on a long term basis in their quest for immediate profit. If the Mega GA/SA  price market stalls either because the air is too thin or that economic conditions change negativity then it should trickle down reductions in demand  to the next price tier and so on.

 It is great that we GA/SA comic book collectors have seen our books make price/ news  headlines every Ha signature auction, the problem is we have to live with it afterwards. Just because the price market of GA/SA books is up does not mean long time collections will hit the market, but a changing economic world in which the headwinds are mighty strong can shake some collectors loose which would otherwise not be on the market,  Combine that with known Ga comic books collectors pairing down, the dumpster investors and we have created a perfect storm of increased supply in the GA/SA comic book market.

 Making the right call now, before the real eye of the storm hits could increase you GA/SA collection to much greater heights for the future.

 I get you say max flux 10-20% and that is very possible, I say 30% minimum or greater, anybody else what to take a guess at the possible bottom?

  I'll stand on what I said before, ...if there's a bubble it'll pop in SA to Modern because if supply outstrips demand it'll create market volatility.  The biggest risk factor for market depreciation are long boxes of more recent vintage books collectors have been squirreling away for generations.  GA isn't invulnerable to this, but far less subject to stresses from the supply side.

With GA, the more likely outcome would be a little more daylight between low, mid and high grades (which would make collectors concerned about being totally priced out of the market a bit happier I'd think), but that's purely speculation. The cream of the GA crop (high grades, pedigrees, classic covers, trend setters and scarce books) should still rise to the top in spite of economic stress.  IMO, "Mega keys" are more prone to being outliers, not the best barometer of overall market health.  

[buttock]

On 5/23/2022 at 8:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Not sure what you mean by the All-American 61 overachieving when lower graded copies have sold for more money on both the Heritage and CC auction platforms earlier this year?  

I read this as him saying it's an example of a book that did not overachieve. 

[tth2]

On 5/24/2022 at 10:24 AM, buttock said:

On 5/23/2022 at 10:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Not sure what you mean by the All-American 61 overachieving when lower graded copies have sold for more money on both the Heritage and CC auction platforms earlier this year?  

I read this as him saying it's an example of a book that did not overachieve. 

Correct.  Slightly clearer wording would be: "the other books in the auction, like All-American 61, definately did not overachieve"

[Joshua33]

On 5/23/2022 at 1:29 PM, szav said:

Wow new Mitch is much more bearish than old Mitch.  I’m not convinced the coming correction will be greater than 10-20% for GA in any grade.

All these great raw collections  supposedly siting around that will get brought to market in the event of a recession… why wouldn’t they have already come out when prices were flying high?  If anything people will sit on them even more firmly while they wait for prices to climb back up.

Now if you believe it’s all crypto money driving this, and margin calls force people to liquidate, you’ll just see resales on all these recent items… not new material brought to market when prices are lower.

The raw collections don't come out because people are foolish. They think things will go up forever. It takes until they aren't going up anymore to realize they missed peak, then they'll try to sell. There's almost an arrogance to most when things are on the rise. 

As far as bottom?... You are about to see the nastiest economy of our lifetime. I'm afraid that we are only at the tip of the iceberg. 

[lou_fine]

On 5/24/2022 at 7:43 AM, Joshua33 said:

The raw collections don't come out because people are foolish. They think things will go up forever. It takes until they aren't going up anymore to realize they missed peak, then they'll try to sell. There's almost an arrogance to most when things are on the rise. 

Exactly bang on here, as clearly evident with the latest recent surge in real estate prices, and yet the supply of real estate listings is at an almost record low as sellers don't want to list because they think prices will only go higher next month. 

[tth2]

On 5/24/2022 at 12:50 PM, lou_fine said:

Exactly bang on here, as clearly evident with the latest recent surge in real estate prices, and yet the supply of real estate listings is at an almost record low as sellers don't want to list because they think prices will only go higher next month. 

Maybe because they don't need to sell and they don't want to be the sucker who turned out to have sold at the bottom of the market.

[Mmehdy]

On 5/24/2022 at 7:43 AM, Joshua33 said:

The raw collections don't come out because people are foolish. They think things will go up forever. It takes until they aren't going up anymore to realize they missed peak, then they'll try to sell. There's almost an arrogance to most when things are on the rise. 

As far as bottom?... You are about to see the nastiest economy of our lifetime. I'm afraid that we are only at the tip of the iceberg. 

Great observation, but I think there is more at play here. If one has a comic book collection  that was held for the last 20+ years, plans can change with your 401K plan gets reduced by 30/40 and even 50%.... the GA/SA comics will go before you enter your new forced career as "burger flipper".  But you are spot on about the attitude of the owner than thinks it will go up forever. Wise men have said you cannot predict the top but only see it from below it. I think this really boils down to whether or not you are a true comic book collector or speculator. The line has been blurred by true collectors who are buying and selling at a profit to keep pace with price increases as time goes on. Heck, maybe we all a little bit or speculator and collector, but to me it matters what  majority side of the fence you are on.

 I cannot say that if the hedge fund, cyptro and pure speculators folks today exited our GA/SA comic book world that I would miss them, worry about them, or hope they come back in the future. Our GA/SA comic book world made up of a majority of true comic book collectors would be just fine as it was 40, 30 and  even 20 years ago.

 The thing that is most troubling to me is how much have these hit and run profit only  Gamespot speculators types have invaded our current GA/SA comic book market? I mean they are easy to spot on the recent mega key run up purchases...possibly the Promise collection purchases but exactly how many are there, how much of the  recent price run up could be attributed to them and their potential over real market collector GA/SA value?  Any Idea's????

Edited May 24, 2022 by Mmehdy

[tabcom]

On 5/24/2022 at 10:43 AM, Joshua33 said:

. . .

As far as bottom?... You are about to see the nastiest economy of our lifetime. I'm afraid that we are only at the tip of the iceberg. 

[adamstrange]

On 5/24/2022 at 10:34 AM, tth2 said:

Correct.  Slightly clearer wording would be: "the other books in the auction, like All-American 61, definately did not overachieve"

Or as Shakespeare would have put it:  "Yea, verily and forsooth, the tomes over in yonder sale, amongst them the one and sixty All-American, did not, methinks, surpasseth all understanding.'

[Cat-Man_America]

On 5/24/2022 at 9:43 AM, Joshua33 said:

The raw collections don't come out because people are foolish. They think things will go up forever. It takes until they aren't going up anymore to realize they missed peak, then they'll try to sell. There's almost an arrogance to most when things are on the rise. 

As far as bottom?... You are about to see the nastiest economy of our lifetime. I'm afraid that we are only at the tip of the iceberg. 

I try not to be too judgmental on why collectors keep books raw unless they're reading them from cover to cover every so often.  This is certainly why a lot of folks get into the hobby and remain in it for the long haul. Ironically all collectors suffer from "long haul syndrome" (-this hobby is the ironic pentathelon).  If the books are low to mid grade keeping them raw for the purpose of reading and art perusal might make some sense, but high grades are at risk of deterioration every time the cover's cracked unless the collector is very careful ...and as we get older and "fidgetier" that scenario is even more likely to play out.

The reality is more akin to a Catch 22 setting where you can't win with a raw collection in the short term because the cards are stacked against you.  The costs of encapsulation are a serious consideration and unless the collector has some "juice" (as in a very well known dealer or collector with a sizable collection to start with) the TATs will likely kill the realized values before he/she can get those books into the right auction in a rapidly declining market.  Food for thought.

On 5/24/2022 at 1:31 PM, Mmehdy said:

Great observation, but I think there is more at play here. If one has a comic book collection  that was held for the last 20+ years, plans can change with your 401K plan gets reduced by 30/40 and even 50%.... the GA/SA comics will go before you enter your new forced career as "burger flipper".  But you are spot on about the attitude of the owner than thinks it will go up forever. Wise men have said you cannot predict the top but only see it from below it. I think this really boils down to whether or not you are a true comic book collector or speculator. The line has been blurred by true collectors who are buying and selling at a profit to keep pace with price increases as time goes on. Heck, maybe we all a little bit or speculator and collector, but to me it matters what  majority side of the fence you are on.

 I cannot say that if the hedge fund, cyptro and pure speculators folks today exited our GA/SA comic book world that I would miss them, worry about them, or hope they come back in the future. Our GA/SA comic book world made up of a majority of true comic book collectors would be just fine as it was 40, 30 and  even 20 years ago.

 The thing that is most troubling to me is how much have these hit and run profit only  Gamespot speculators types have invaded our current GA/SA comic book market? I mean they are easy to spot on the recent mega key run up purchases...possibly the Promise collection purchases but exactly how many are there, how much of the  recent price run up could be attributed to them and their potential over real market collector GA/SA value?  Any Idea's????

Yes, there's a lot more going on.  I'd think there are fewer folks among the burger flipping crowd investing in high-end GA comics.  That said, most are probably experienced with flipping. I have a pair of trimmers in my garage, but no hedge, so more of my funds are tied to speculation, nothing cryptic about it! "Gamespot speculator types" may be more game than what they collect, or just wisely diversifying in more stable commodities which GA comics are in my estimation.

The Promise Collection is what it is, a great collection with a good story behind it.  Folks can rightfully question whether over-grading was involved that impacted earlier grades and even how much ...if any... of the Promise story was embellished.  It's actually a good thing that not a lot of Promise Collection books have been flipped.  It's like dating immediately after a break-up, ...everyone notices, especially if it's too soon.

On 5/24/2022 at 6:02 PM, adamstrange said:

Or as Shakespeare would have put it:  "Yea, verily and forsooth, the tomes over in yonder sale, amongst them the one and sixty All-American, did not, methinks, surpasseth all understanding.'

Or to wildly paraphrase a favorite historical George Santayana quote (my version): "Those who do not learn from Heritage results are doomed to come up short on the next hammered price."   

Edited May 25, 2022 by Cat-Man_America
ale added, ...it's time for a brew!

[Aman619]

On 5/24/2022 at 1:44 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe because they don't need to sell and they don't want to be the sucker who turned out to have sold at the bottom of the market.

And…. They’d have to buy again at todays Sky high prices, or pay capital gains.  AND interest rates are Sky high (relatively… my first mortgage in the 80s was 9%. ).

[buttock]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:44 AM, tth2 said:

Maybe because they don't need to sell and they don't want to be the sucker who turned out to have sold at the bottom of the market.

Not to mention, what are you going to buy with the money from the sale?