Bubbles Bursting 8 8

[lou_fine]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:08 AM, sfcityduck said:

Interesting past week.

Stocks are down and Bitcoin is trending the same as stocks (except much worse). 

All I can say is that anybody here who thinks that potential bidders who have seen a significant paper drop in their equity investment portfolio even if they are not selling at this point in time, is going to be incentivized to continue bidding agressively or pay crazy money for collectibles is simply not living in this real world.   

[buttock]

On 1/25/2022 at 11:40 AM, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that anybody here who thinks that potential bidders who have seen a significant paper drop in their equity investment portfolio even if they are not selling at this point in time, is going to be incentivized to continue bidding agressively or pay crazy money for collectibles is simply not living in this real world.   

Despite how we've seen over and over again that when traditional investments tank collectibles rise?  

[jimbo_7071]

On 1/25/2022 at 12:43 PM, Rob said:

I assume those of us looking to acquire new books are hoping this will result in a correction in GA prices, and those who own valuable books are suspecting prices won't see a correction.

I'd like to see a correction, but I don't see it happening right away. I don't think people will still be collecting comic books one hundred years from now, so at some point values will start to move downward, but the big move won't be for decades. There are some guys in the GA forum who are 60 or over; those guys certainly don't have anything to worry about.

[EastEnd1]

Think it's much too early in this recent market downturn to be making any predictions about comic book corrections.

[aardvark88]

On 1/25/2022 at 10:40 AM, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that anybody here who thinks that potential bidders who have seen a significant paper drop in their equity investment portfolio even if they are not selling at this point in time, is going to pay crazy money for collectibles is simply not living in this real world.   

1929 depression and 2008 great recession cometh again in 2022?

 

[PopKulture]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:00 PM, aardvark88 said:

1929 depression and 2008 great recession cometh again in 2022?

 

Dreadfully tactless politicizing at the end of this otherwise benign if not banal restatement of the obvious. 

[Aman619]

with the usual caveats  THE WORLD IS ENDING!  Guy who predicted it twice says so!   

... and if it doesnt, well it sure looks like it coulda maybe would anyway... I dunno, just reading what they gave me.

[N e r V]

Not sure where prices will go but comics newfound prices are due to two things being first all the trillions the government put into peoples pockets by printing extra money and giving forgiveness on a number of peoples debts and secondly because of the above the dollar has far less value due to inflation. It’s not going to be an end to industry prices but an adjustment to the market is something I’d be surprised if it never happened .

[fishbone]

On 1/25/2022 at 2:02 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I'd like to see a correction, but I don't see it happening right away. I don't think people will still be collecting comic books one hundred years from now, so at some point values will start to move downward, but the big move won't be for decades. There are some guys in the GA forum who are 60 or over; those guys certainly don't have anything to worry about.

So you're saying I should  be happy  that I'll be dead in 100 years ?  

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

On 1/25/2022 at 3:34 PM, Aman619 said:

with the usual caveats  THE WORLD IS ENDING!  Guy who predicted it twice says so!   

... and if it doesnt, well it sure looks like it coulda maybe would anyway... I dunno, just reading what they gave me.

Ha ha! I was reading a history of the New York City Bowery last night and they told a story about a guy who founded a church there predicated on the world ending on a certain date in the 1830's. The believers gathered on that date dressed in their appropriate ascension dress and when it didn't happen the founder said he made a mistake and that it would happen in six months. When that didn't happen the founder fled town! As for the church it apparently morphed into the Seventh Day Adventists. I've heard doom-sayers my whole life and I know exactly what to do with their opinions financial or otherwise.

[Robot Man]

On 1/26/2022 at 11:27 AM, 50YrsCollctngCmcs said:

Ha ha! I was reading a history of the New York City Bowery last night and they told a story about a guy who founded a church there predicated on the world ending on a certain date in the 1830's. The believers gathered on that date dressed in their appropriate ascension dress and when it didn't happen the founder said he made a mistake and that it would happen in six months. When that didn't happen the founder fled town! As for the church it apparently morphed into the Seventh Day Adventists. I've heard doom-sayers my whole life and I know exactly what to do with their opinions financial or otherwise.

+1

Weak, pathetic people with no common sense or a will of their own. Thusly, we have had places like the Spahn Ranch, Waco and Jonestown…

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

On 1/26/2022 at 11:41 AM, Robot Man said:

+1

Weak, pathetic people with no common sense or a will of their own. Thusly, we have had places like the Spahn Ranch, Waco and Jonestown…

from Wikipedia:

Millerite roots, 1831–44

Main article: Great Disappointment

The Seventh-day Adventist Church formed out of the movement known today as the Millerites. In 1831, a Baptist convert, William Miller, was asked by a Baptist to preach in their church and began to preach that the Second Advent of Jesus would occur somewhere between March 1843 and March 1844, based on his interpretation of Daniel 8:14. A following gathered around Miller that included many from the Baptist, Methodist, Presbyterian and Christian Connection churches. In the summer of 1844, some of Miller's followers promoted the date of October 22. They linked the cleansing of the sanctuary of Daniel 8:14 with the Jewish Day of Atonement, believed to be October 22 that year. By 1844, over 100,000 people were anticipating what Miller had called the "Blessed Hope". On October 22 many of the believers were up late into the night watching, waiting for Christ to return and found themselves bitterly disappointed when both sunset and midnight passed with their expectations unfulfilled. This event later became known as the Great Disappointment.

Pre-denominational years, 1844–60

Edson and the Heavenly Sanctuary

After the disappointment of October 22 many of Miller's followers were left upset and disillusioned. Most ceased to believe in the imminent return of Jesus. Some believed the date was incorrect. A few believed that the date was right but the event expected was wrong. This latter group developed into the Seventh-day Adventist Church. One of the Adventists, Hiram Edson (1806–1882) wrote "Our fondest hopes and expectations were blasted, and such a spirit of weeping came over us as I never experienced before. It seemed that the loss of all earthly friends could have been no comparison. We wept, and wept, till the day dawn.

 

Wonder if they had a Shaman?

Edited January 26, 2022 by 50YrsCollctngCmcs

[MusterMark]

On 1/26/2022 at 11:27 AM, 50YrsCollctngCmcs said:

Ha ha! I was reading a history of the New York City Bowery last night and they told a story about a guy who founded a church there predicated on the world ending on a certain date in the 1830's. The believers gathered on that date dressed in their appropriate ascension dress and when it didn't happen the founder said he made a mistake and that it would happen in six months. When that didn't happen the founder fled town! As for the church it apparently morphed into the Seventh Day Adventists. I've heard doom-sayers my whole life and I know exactly what to do with their opinions financial or otherwise.

So you're going to wear your ascension dress?

I don't even know what one looks like ...  

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

On 1/26/2022 at 2:35 PM, MusterMark said:

So you're going to wear your ascension dress?

I don't even know what one looks like ...  

I'm saving my ascension dress for when Action 1 sells for $100M!!

[VintageComics]

On 1/24/2022 at 1:13 PM, adamstrange said:

Both Keller and Geppi ended up selling off large chunks of comics due to the real estate bubble and collapse.

Something important to remember about the Real Estate collapse was that it took a lot of people by surprise. Only Gold Bugs were really expecting it to my knowledge.

This current potential slowdown in the economy, at least to me, seemed to have been telegraphed better to Joe Public as we've been hearing about rate hikes, supply chain issues, inflation and a bear market for some time. Or maybe I've just been reading too much of the Gold thread in the WC. 

Also, the staggering amount of wealth created in the last 2 years dwarfs any previous time in history IMO. I mean, we had TRILLIONS pour into people's pockets. That has never happened before. 

On 1/25/2022 at 12:44 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

On 1/25/2022 at 12:07 AM, zosocane said:

What did that barber Occam say?  The simplest explanation is often the right answer.  Shortly after the pandemic started, besides the massive price gains on keys, esp Marvel SA keys, the other development in the hobby was significantly younger buyers, guys in their 30s, buying big/bigger books.  They seemed to parachute in during 2020 and 2021.  Their arrival and the massive price gains are not mutually exclusive.  Many of these younger guys were specking crypto early, when it was comparatively dirt cheap, and became very, very liquid in 2021 when crypto markets exploded.  Now, it is a blood-bath in the crypto markets.  The music is stopping for many in that sector.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out into our "hobby."  On on that $3.3 MM OA buyer?  My immediate thought was "crypto."

There could be a few guys like that who have entered the hobby, but I doubt there are enough to fully explain the recent trends. A lot of people are staying at home—bored to death—and spending their cash on everything and everything. In 2020, people were allowed to take $100K out of their 401Ks early without the usual 10% penalty, and a lot of people did. Interest rates are low, so some people are taking equity out of their homes. People are working from home and saving money by not paying for day care, not traveling, not eating out, etc., etc. They have money, and money burns holes in a lot of people's pockets.

Regardless of what's going on with crypto and the stock market, I don't think the various collectibles bubbles will be popping quite yet because the circumstances that helped to create them won't go away until the pandemic is in our rearview mirror.

With comics, moderns will probably be the canary in the mine. Other bubbles (BA, SA, GA, OA) will not pop before that one.

I do believe it's a combination of both crypto money (you can't pull $2TRIL in profits and not have it affect the economy) and stimulus money.

I mentioned this in Comics General, but I don't think the average Joe realizes just how much stimulus money went directly into people's pockets. 

I speak to my musician, restaurant and other friends and they all say they 'did really well' with a wink. 

And the wealthy definitely got money they didn't really 'need'. I've spoken to some people in various industries who saw massive government checks being cashed for personal use. 

All that money sloshing around drove up asset prices and then driving up the prices got the attention of more investors and here we are.

Personally, I don't see a massive slump. Most of the wealthy can hang onto stuff and don't want to sell for a loss, although you could see a period of stagnation and a slight correction.

But who knows? We're in unprecedented territory. 

[rjpb]

There is never just one factor that drives rising prices for a non-essential commodity. Crypto and stock market profits may well contribute, particularly in some subsectors of the collectible markets, but comics have rarely shown a steady even rise from year to year but rather big jumps followed by plateaus and then after a few years another big jump, and not always at the same time among all genres and eras, as well as some price drops for particular issues and genres now and then.

I suspect one contributor to the broad rise in values over the last year is that the money freed up from cashing in is largely getting plowed back into the market. I wonder what impact stricter IRS reporting rules might have going forward on those thinking of cashing out profits on one book in order to purchase another.

[GermanFan]

A black swan may be the population development in the coming years. I think the odd situation will be called off in the next months, everything points to it crumbling, but there could be some surprises coming in the years ahead. May be, must not be. If a certain number of collectors would leave the hobby it could reflect in prices. But this is wild speculation of a black swan event.

[jimbo_7071]

On 1/27/2022 at 1:39 PM, rjpb said:

There is never just one factor that drives rising prices for a non-essential commodity. Crypto and stock market profits may well contribute, particularly in some subsectors of the collectible markets, but comics have rarely shown a steady even rise from year to year but rather big jumps followed by plateaus and then after a few years another big jump, and not always at the same time among all genres and eras, as well as some price drops for particular issues and genres now and then.

I suspect one contributor to the broad rise in values over the last year is that the money freed up from cashing in is largely getting plowed back into the market. I wonder what impact stricter IRS reporting rules might have going forward on those thinking of cashing out profits on one book in order to purchase another.

Yes, I think the IRS is going to be cracking down on things like entrepreneurs (including dealers) buying books for their personal collections and booking them as "inventory" and using them to reduce their net profits. Twenty years ago it was a free-for-all; now the IRS is getting more sophisticated about catching things like that. I can't imagine those shenanigans are common enough to have a significant impact, though.

[rjpb]

On 1/28/2022 at 9:11 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Yes, I think the IRS is going to be cracking down on things like entrepreneurs (including dealers) buying books for their personal collections and booking them as "inventory" and using them to reduce their net profits. Twenty years ago it was a free-for-all; now the IRS is getting more sophisticated about catching things like that. I can't imagine those shenanigans are common enough to have a significant impact, though.

Probably only the larger dealers use the inventory method of accounting, and it would be tough to prove that "personal collection" purchases aren't inventory if one is routinely selling books in their possession. I was thinking more of the collector and sometimes seller who will now may get a 1099 for the comic they sell for $5K in order to fund the purchase of something else, but will have booked a $4K profit on what they sold, even though all proceeds were just plowed into a different book. Now they will have to consider taxes paid on the gain, as well as potential auction and payment fees when considering the sale in order to fund their collecting. You might see more cash only deals on the DL, or straight up trading as a result. 

[Monsters-n-heroes]

On 1/28/2022 at 11:31 AM, rjpb said:

Probably only the larger dealers use the inventory method of accounting, and it would be tough to prove that "personal collection" purchases aren't inventory if one is routinely selling books in their possession. I was thinking more of the collector and sometimes seller who will now may get a 1099 for the comic they sell for $5K in order to fund the purchase of something else, but will have booked a $4K profit on what they sold, even though all proceeds were just plowed into a different book. Now they will have to consider taxes paid on the gain, as well as potential auction and payment fees when considering the sale in order to fund their collecting. You might see more cash only deals on the DL, or straight up trading as a result. 

The good ole days again ... maybe? ... I personally hope that this brings more people back to flea markets and comic and toy shows for in person selling and trading, but we'll see.