Oh Man I Sure Hope the Comics Market Never Crashes as Bad as the Stamps Market 13 13

[THE_BEYONDER]

CGC slabs are the new Bitcoin....

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 3/15/2022 at 11:46 AM, Rob said:

Sounds like someone has pipe dreams the overnight increase in value is here to stay.  "It can't go down!"  How many times have we heard that?

Those people are stupid as well.

No one can predict what will happen tomorrow thats the point. 

Just because something is higher doesnt mean it can't go higher or keep going lower.  All the media is "click bait."

 

[1Cool]

On 3/15/2022 at 2:39 PM, EastEnd1 said:

I've been hearing about the demise of comics since at least 1980.  By way of reference, I started collecting around 1972 and am 58 now.  Comic circulations declined throughout the 1970s and that was supposed to bring the end... it didn't.  And then the emergence of the direct market was supposed to bring the end cause comics would slowly disappear from newstands and not be as widespread to attract new readers... it didn't.  And then the black and white boom and bust of the 1980s was supposed to bring the end cause so many people lost so much money... it didn't.  In fact, shortly thereafter we had the explosion in comics of the early 1990s... but then again that was also supposed to bring the end because it was all built on superficial variants and manufactured collectibles.  The 1990s implosion may have actually brought us closest to the end... but not really.  This new grading company called CGC suddenly showed up and guess what... comics exploded again, with near ridiculous valuations (not unlike today) in the early 2000s.  That eventually led to a pullback and more talk about the end and guess what... no end.  A new technology called CGI made it possible for the major film studios to make truly realistic superhero movies... and comics exploded again with valuations reaching even more "insane" levels.  Oh, but that was supposed to bring the end too because people would tire of superhero movies... they haven't.  In fact, comic book properties have become the most valuable in Hollyowood!  And the major studios have doubled down on them by using them as catalysts for launching entire new streaming services.  And here we stand... superheros are more popular than ever and comic valuations are higher than ever, which very likely means that there are as many if not more "collectors" since I started in 1972.  And so naturally, the talk of doom emerges again. 

I'm actually pretty bullish on the future... I actually see the next catalyst to further growth just starting to merge... the accelerated digitization of commerce brought on by the pandemic.  Emerging company's like Rally are making it possible to trade comics (or "partial comics") like stocks... Ebay has apparently announced "Ebay Vault", a 40,000 sq ft "Fort Knox" facility to hold your collectibles, authenticate and potentially even GRADE them, and easily facilitate transfer of ownership... and Wall Street is slowly reaching its tentacles into our "little hobby" (along with many other collectibles).  Folks, my own view is that the next five to ten years are going to make for a very interesting, and potentially lucrative, ride. 

I highlighted two items that I can not disagree with but also highlights the problem with our discussion.  I'm not disagreeing that the next 5 to 10 years should be very good years in terms of buying and selling comics.  There are a ton of 40 - 60 years who actually value the physical comics and find enjoyment just holding / reading a comic book and will spend a great deal of money to own books from their childhood (even those not designated as key books).  Companies are jumping on board to monetize hot books and this has brought in a whole new batch of younger investors in comic books which does give some hope but I'm one of the people who feels the whole thing is flimsily held together.  We mock people in Holland for basing their economy on tulips and think they all must have been insane.  But I really don't see much difference between them and us in a ton of ways.  

I respect your opinion that a new golden age of comics will be right around the corner and hope you are right since I really like comic books but my gut tells me that you will be proven to be wrong.

[october]

On 3/15/2022 at 1:56 PM, 1Cool said:

I highlighted two items that I can not disagree with but also highlights the problem with our discussion.  I'm not disagreeing that the next 5 to 10 years should be very good years in terms of buying and selling comics.  There are a ton of 40 - 60 years who actually value the physical comics and find enjoyment just holding / reading a comic book and will spend a great deal of money to own books from their childhood (even those not designated as key books).  Companies are jumping on board to monetize hot books and this has brought in a whole new batch of younger investors in comic books which does give some hope but I'm one of the people who feels the whole thing is flimsily held together.  We mock people in Holland for basing their economy on tulips and think they all must have been insane.  But I really don't see much difference between them and us in a ton of ways.  

I respect your opinion that a new golden age of comics will be right around the corner and hope you are right since I really like comic books but my gut tells me that you will be proven to be wrong.

The tulip bubble was short. It was what? Two years? While speculative money certainly played a part, futures/option contracts really accelerated it. That sort of stuff isn't prevalent in comics...at least not yet. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by october

[NewWorldOrder]

On 3/15/2022 at 11:56 AM, 1Cool said:

I highlighted two items that I can not disagree with but also highlights the problem with our discussion.  I'm not disagreeing that the next 5 to 10 years should be very good years in terms of buying and selling comics.  There are a ton of 40 - 60 years who actually value the physical comics and find enjoyment just holding / reading a comic book and will spend a great deal of money to own books from their childhood (even those not designated as key books).  Companies are jumping on board to monetize hot books and this has brought in a whole new batch of younger investors in comic books which does give some hope but I'm one of the people who feels the whole thing is flimsily held together.  We mock people in Holland for basing their economy on tulips and think they all must have been insane.  But I really don't see much difference between them and us in a ton of ways.  

I respect your opinion that a new golden age of comics will be right around the corner and hope you are right since I really like comic books but my gut tells me that you will be proven to be wrong.

I feel like this response is spot on if its from the 1990's which I felt the same way.

I really only disagree with your 5-10 year gap.  I think the wave of collectibility is min another 25 years.  Not saying skies the limit, but I am just seeing too much interest in the back issue market from younger people now, and children being introduced to these characters at a young age now not seen since the 60/70's I think the future is just fine.

Again not saying every year will be a record breaker, but should be pretty stable.

Spider-man at the movies doesnt just make almost $2 billion dollars at the box office during covid just to forgotten over the next 25-50 years. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by NewWorldOrder

[EastEnd1]

Just thought of another one that was supposed to destroy the hobby way back when... the pervasive "mature themes" in comics during the 1980s.  Small children would no longer be able to read comics so where would the "new readers of the future come from"??  Even Marvel was sufficiently concerned that they launched their "Star Line" of comics for young kids to make sure the pipeline kept going.  Well neither Marvel's "Star" line, nor the collapse of comic book reading, panned out on that one also.   

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 3/15/2022 at 3:04 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

I feel like this response is spot on if its from the 1990's which I felt the same way.

I really only disagree with your 5-10 year gap.  I think the wave of collectibility is min another 25 years.  Not saying skies the limit, but I am just seeing too much interest in the back issue market from younger people now, and children being introduced to these characters at a young age now not seen since the 60/70's I think the future is just fine.

Again not saying every year will be a record breaker, but should be pretty stable.

Spider-man at the movies doesnt just make almost $2 billion dollars at the box office during covid just to forgotten over the next 25-50 years. 

I wish I could be this optimistic about the health of the planet in general over the next 25-50 years.

[shadroch]

On 3/15/2022 at 9:50 AM, NewWorldOrder said:

As long as my generation is alive people will be collecting.

Especially with the new selling platform "whatnot" the buying and selling of the new stuff mixed with the old in our hobby seems very strong.  

Nothing lasts forever, but since Marvel and DC got into the movie business they solidified many comics before 2000 as gold now.  

Totally agree.  If you have vintage comics in your collection those will be the last stuff to go down and you will see it coming more than likely.

 I remember having this same conversation with the comic book store owner I used to work for in the 90's.  He was worried about Marvel opening up their owns stores, Digital comic books, and kids being into video games etc.   I talked to him in 2019, and he wished stayed the course in the 90's.  He admitted he was way too pessimistic.

All of this applies to the stock market as well.  In life there are too many of these people walking around....

 

Staying the course in the stock market means doing nothing. Staying the course for the shop owner would have meant years of struggling to meet the monthly nut.

The thousands upon thousands of shops that didn't survive didn't close because the owners had made their fortunes. The guys I sold my shops to were passionate but got tired of reaching into their pockets to keep the place going.  It's a small sampling  but of my fellow shop owners on Long Island in 1988, the few who were open ten years later almost all had pensions or were on disability.  I was shocked when a friend who had what I thought was a very successful shop offered to give it to me. It turned out he was about to be evicted, hadn't paid rent, or insurance for months and owed Diamond for the last six weeks. He was looking for a sucker to step in and pick up his debts. 

When I sold my shop, I was getting 52% off new books and free delivery. Within five years, the typical terms for small shops was 40-45% and not only did you have to pay for shipping, but it came COD which added a few bucks per box.  

[1Cool]

On 3/15/2022 at 3:04 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

I feel like this response is spot on if its from the 1990's which I felt the same way.

I really only disagree with your 5-10 year gap.  I think the wave of collectibility is min another 25 years.  Not saying skies the limit, but I am just seeing too much interest in the back issue market from younger people now, and children being introduced to these characters at a young age now not seen since the 60/70's I think the future is just fine.

Again not saying every year will be a record breaker, but should be pretty stable.

Spider-man at the movies doesnt just make almost $2 billion dollars at the box office during covid just to forgotten over the next 25-50 years. 

I don't see physical comics as being something that is forgotten but something that was part of the past and all but forgotten by everyone but a few niche buyers.  From your end of the comic book spectrum I can see why you think comics are being bought by younger people since I do agree high grade slabs of keys are one of the hot investments (equities) for young people to own.  The Gamestock crowd is all over comics and sport cards as a means to make money.  Most do not give a damn about the book and the fact that they can't read it makes no difference.  Your end of the market may actually have some life beyond my 15 year time table since people do love to make money but yours is a small component of the comic market.  

[Bookery]

On 3/15/2022 at 3:10 PM, EastEnd1 said:

Well neither Marvel's "Star" line, nor the collapse of comic book reading, panned out on that one also.   

Through the '60s most of the popular titles were selling 500,000+ copies.  Today, most comics sell below 100,000 copies... many well below.  If an 80+% drop in readers isn't a "collapse", I guess I'm not sure how you are defining the word.

[Bookery]

On 3/15/2022 at 3:04 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

Spider-man at the movies doesnt just make almost $2 billion dollars at the box office during covid just to forgotten over the next 25-50 years. 

Movies may affect collectibles values, but they have almost nothing to do with current comics readership.  Do you run out and buy the physical book to every hit movie based on a novel?  

[troydivision1]

On 3/15/2022 at 2:39 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

Most people can if they come up with a game plan.  It's harder IMO to do nothing than be productive each day. 

Owning Gold looks pretty cheap to me.

 

 

On 3/15/2022 at 2:44 PM, theCapraAegagrus said:

What is that? 1 flake? I thought we were discussing practicality.

Perhaps the ETF is a reference to the thread about shared 'ownership' of key comics via LLC?

[EastEnd1]

On 3/15/2022 at 3:52 PM, Bookery said:

Through the '60s most of the popular titles were selling 500,000+ copies.  Today, most comics sell below 100,000 copies... many well below.  If an 80+% drop in readers isn't a "collapse", I guess I'm not sure how you are defining the word.

Do you really think the comic book market has collapsed?

[troydivision1]

As someone that fits snugly into middle-age fan / collector / investor I'll provide my person insight.
My 5YO can name more Marvel / DC characters than I know due to playing Lego Marvel / DC video games.
Blue chip (GA / BA / CA / MA) key slabs will always be sought out.
YouTube / Spec Sites will burn out new speculators chasing hot spec books or this week's HOT 1:100 variant.
I (illegally) download every comic I want to read from the major publishers and I know I am not alone in this.
The climate crisis / water wars will be here before comics are no longer bought and sold for profit.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Troy Division

[F For Fake]

On 3/10/2022 at 6:06 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

My best friend is a 58 year old life long collector.  He has all of the SA and BA biggies.  FF 1, ASM 1, Hulk 1, 181, the list goes on.  We went to a show last Sunday.  He had 2 goals.  1, find issue 42 of Doctor Strange volume 3 and 2, find issue 15 of Eternals.  Both I think he found for a couple bucks a piece.  He was so happy.  Came up to me like he just found an ASM 129 for a buck or something.  Those issues completed his runs.  He’s absolutely a reader, also a collector.  But, he also does think about the financial side of his collection.  More so over the past 10 years or so. I see it at shows near me all the time.  People are excited buying dollar books just as they are buying 3k keys.  

Next week I'm going to a "real" comic show for the first time since Covid started, and I can't WAIT to hit the bargain bins. I doubt I'll even look at wall books, as I can only imagine what prices will be like. But the prospect of spending the day digging in the drek, man, I'm stoked!

[Bookery]

On 3/15/2022 at 4:09 PM, EastEnd1 said:

Do you really think the comic book market has collapsed?

You have to define to which "market" you are referring?  The collectibles market is booming right now (as are many types of collectibles).  But "new" comic book readership keeps declining just as physical book readership has declined over the years.  The printed word itself is declining.  Did it "collapse" in one fell swoop?  No.  But it trickles lower year by year.  In the 1970s there were 15-20 used bookstores in our greater metropolitan area.  Now there are maybe 2.  I carried new-release comics in my shop for 35 years.  They are no longer viable, and we have dropped them.  This will vary from region to region, of course, but the overall trend is obvious.  All printed material will continue to decline in readership, as it shifts to digital, and in some cases, away from reading altogether.

[shadroch]

On 3/15/2022 at 12:52 PM, Bookery said:

Through the '60s most of the popular titles were selling 500,000+ copies.  Today, most comics sell below 100,000 copies... many well below.  If an 80+% drop in readers isn't a "collapse", I guess I'm not sure how you are defining the word.

Thats not a fair comparison. Marvel in 1964 was putting out eight books so if they all sold 500,000 that means the market for Marvel comics was four million copies a month.  They sell way more than four million units today so sales have not dropped 80%, although losing that percent of readers may be correct. 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 3/15/2022 at 12:59 PM, Bookery said:

Movies may affect collectibles values, but they have almost nothing to do with current comics readership.  Do you run out and buy the physical book to every hit movie based on a novel?  

I haven't bought new comics since 2005.

I already answered that question a couple posts ago.

Here is a cliff notes answer though.  New Comic books in 2022 (as per the past 10 years or so) is the least important way to grow well established characters currently. 

Most new comics are garbage filler anyway.  Save trees and cancel most of them I say. 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by NewWorldOrder

[Northwest]

It can be true that, simultaneously, current consumption patterns shift to digital and vintage collecting thrives.

Video game distribution also shifted to digital, and the collector's market remains focused on the early production runs of the 8 and 16 bit era.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Northwest

[NewWorldOrder]

On 3/15/2022 at 1:52 PM, Northwest said:

It can be true that, simultaneously current consumption patterns shift to digital and vintage collecting thrives.

Video game distribution also shifted to digital, and the collector's market remains focused on the early production runs of the 8 and 16 bit era.

Please stop with common sense posts.  

It will shock some of these people and give them PTSD.