Stock market/crypto collapse effect on pricing 2 2

[Guest Race]

Will be curious to see how the stock market/crypto collapse affects the June Heritage auction... my theory had been prices have accelerated over the past two years due to buying by speculators/investors as opposed to the more traditional collectors... June will be the tell

Edited May 12, 2022 by Guest

[Twanj]

 

I predict...

NO 3.3m Secret Wars 8 pages.

[Lobster Janson]

I came to the boards hoping someone started a thread about exactly this. It was my first thought when I saw the news of the crypto implosion yesterday: "oh, now prices for original art will become normal again". But as the Heritage signature auction is loaded with excellent art, I think the best one of recent years (or at least for art I like), I'm not holding my breath. And people that have been able to sell on a high in the last few auctions now have money to spend on some great art.

[Aahz]

I think it will soften ... but not because of crypto.  I think folks will sit on their cash a bit more now, just until events around the world stabilize a bit.

[Dirtcheap31]

I agree will be very interesting to see I just checked out the ha auction ending tonight for primarily books and seemed healthy. I almost wonder if it will reverse the normal thought for example “inflation running hot I want physical assets.” Another counter point is the dollar rising hard versus the Euro will make it so EU collectors have less buying power in a USD auction. 

[MAR1979]

On 5/12/2022 at 7:57 PM, Heidjer Staecker said:

I think it will soften ... but not because of crypto.  I think folks will sit on their cash a bit more now, just until events around the world stabilize a bit.

Good logical point. However I thought same in 2007 and in terms of art dropping it did not occur.  I think worst case mid 6 figures items and higher might slow a bit. What I would really like is to be able to go to a con again with 1K in pocket and actually have enough to buy a single late 70's Superhero page again    When I started in art I could bring home 3 DC or 2 Marvel Bronze covers for that ... Anyhow its not going to happen!

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by MAR1979

[Stefanomjr]

I think, aside from equity and crypto markets appreciation, another driver of OA cash inflow has been slabbed comic books.

 

I'm sure lots of what's driven OA prices is collectors flipping slabbed issues in 2020-2021 for many multiples than what they cost in just 2019.

 

I started a thread asking what the market pullback might mean for OA back in February 2020. It devolved into what eventually got the thread mothballed.

But I think the answer then is the answer now. The evergreen top shelf stories will continue to appreciate. The bottom shelf hooch will devalue and the stuff in the middle will fluctuate, as "nostalgia" shifts from 60s-80s to 90s-2000s.

 

Maybe I'm wrong.

 

 

 

[Xatari]

I think both books and art are still going strong. At the higher end of the market, most of the players are not really affected by market volatility, and Art is a luxury. I’m excited to take advantage of any potential fire sales and am stockpiling funds.

[grapeape]

On 5/12/2022 at 8:58 PM, Xatari said:

I think both books and art are still going strong. At the higher end of the market, most of the players are not really affected by market volatility, and Art is a luxury. I’m excited to take advantage of any potential fire sales and am stockpiling funds.

Correct. Art is luxury. It has been throughout this market. The money finds the art. I think there will be plenty of demand/money to chase the supply/art in this June auction.

Billions disappearing in Bitcoin value  gives pause, but really don’t think it bothers OA. Inflation is ugly but there is money available to chase the supply at HA. 

Luxury.

The strong money will be there in June. Supply chain issues plague the world make of that what you will. But there’s plenty of desirable art. No supply chain issues at HA.

 

 

[fmaz]

All collectibles are luxury… and luxury items are purchased with so-called “discretionary income”. And obviously for one person $500 is discretionary and for another $10k is discretionary… so it varies widely. 

But what is consistent? In the last few years, over the course of the pandemic, discretionary spending has been widely impacted. Big and small vacations scraped, huge decrease in socializing, dining out, movies, etc…. So lots of people have had extra money burning holes in their pockets and have been funneling these “savings” it into various collectible markets.

I think that will begin to correct itself somewhat, but as with all discretionary spending… once people stop doing it, some people find out they can live without the old ways, and enjoy the NEW thing they’re doing with their money — so they don’t return to previous spending.

That’s a long way of saying I think the pandemic introduced some new people to the collectible markets, and it got some people who were already into it FURTHER into it… and that added interest & investment may fall back some, but I think a lot of it will hold.

 

[New School Fool]

I personally think the comic art and crypto world have little to no connection. This latest auction will be very telling indeed.

[Guest Race]

On 5/13/2022 at 6:56 AM, New School Fool said:

I personally think the comic art and crypto world have little to no connection. This latest auction will be very telling indeed.

For those unaware, some of the major crypto hype Twitter accounts (1M+ followers) have been pushing the purchase of slabbed books for over two years. I think true comic book fans stopped being the driver of the high end comics and OA market quite a while ago.

One more thought: Yes, high end art is a luxury for the wealthy... who comprise 80% of the stock market and speculative assets... so the last 4 months of market decline and 6 months of crypto decline (BTC topped in Nov) will hurt their balance sheet to some extent.

[vodou]

On 5/13/2022 at 1:51 AM, grapeape said:

No supply chain issues at HA.

Correct.

Which begs the question: if the future is so obviously rosy, for collectibles/hard goods, why is anybody and seemingly everybody...selling quality?

The market keeps bringing art, pieces I consider objects that defy "pricing", to auction in exchange for "filthy lucre". Okay! Fun times  

My thoughts long-term have been shared here and elsewhere before, but short-term, hey, nothing goes UP!!! in a straight line.

[Rick2you2]

I would probably divide the market into at least 4 groups: high end, middle, and lower end bidding items, plus the "average guy" collectible. I don't think you will see much of a change at the high end, but at the lower end bidding items, the shrinkage in discretionary Bitcoin-type available funds will likely shrink the buyer's pool.  Average guy collectibles, which are at the bottom, won't change much, but they can't really drop much further than where they are (e.g., I don't see $100 pages going to $35). So prices won't really move, but sales will drop.

[inovrmihd]

On 5/13/2022 at 4:37 AM, Race said:

For those unaware, some of the major crypto hype Twitter accounts (1M+ followers) have been pushing the purchase of slabbed books for over two years. I think true comic book fans stopped being the driver of the high end comics and OA market quite a while ago.

One more thought: Yes, high end art is a luxury for the wealthy... who comprise 80% of the stock market and speculative assets... so the last 4 months of market decline and 6 months of crypto decline (BTC topped in Nov) will hurt their balance sheet to some extent.

Would you mind elaborating a little on the crypto hype twitter accounts?  What books were they pushing?  Thanks.

[thethedew]

On 5/12/2022 at 10:58 PM, Xatari said:

... take advantage of any potential fire sales and am stockpiling funds.

Well, since that's what we're ALL doing, I'd guess Fire Sales are going to be unlikely.

Edited May 17, 2022 by thethedew

[zhamlau]

I think we have printed 80% of all US money that ever existed in just the last 2 years alone. Gotta put all that money somewhere. Skyrocketing prices  should continue.

panem et circenses, why worry?

Edited May 14, 2022 by zhamlau

[Guest Race]

On 5/14/2022 at 5:36 AM, inovrmihd said:

Would you mind elaborating a little on the crypto hype twitter accounts?  What books were they pushing?  Thanks.

It was not specific books, just slabs in general -- basically treating them as if they were a commodity like gold. 

I've mentioned this for a while but comics and OA were recognized as targets for investment by the wealthy, non-comics community a long time ago. I believe the combination of youth + instant wealth from crypto + MCU over the past two years was a perfect storm, one which has now driven prices to all time highs. 

[vodou]

On 5/14/2022 at 7:19 AM, zhamlau said:

I think we have printed 80% of all US money that ever existed in just the last 2 years alone. Gotta put all that money somewhere. Skyrocketing prices  should continue.

panem et circenses, why worry?

It's not my place to explain why The Quantity Theory of Money is a red herring, it will be apparent in time anyway.

Instead let's all agree this consignor is not happy, but the buyer sure is.

[MAR1979]

On 5/14/2022 at 9:37 AM, vodou said:

It's not my place to explain why The Quantity Theory of Money is a red herring, it will be apparent in time anyway.

Instead let's all agree this consignor is not happy, but the buyer sure is.

What amount do you feel is (or was) the going rate?  My opinion is its probably within 10% of FMV