June 2023 Heritage Signature Auction #7340 4 4

[tth2]

On 6/25/2023 at 11:31 AM, delekkerste said:

On 6/25/2023 at 11:06 AM, tth2 said:

It's interesting that in the $500 Gold thread you're always lecturing us about the importance of the entry price of one's investment (i.e., not overpaying), and yet when it comes to art you're so willing to give a total free pass to--nay, actually sympathize with--those who overpaid and are now suffering the totally predictable consequences. 

If someone had bought a S&P 500 index fund at the peak in 2022, you would be unmerciful in your criticism, but for some reason it's not the same for someone who bought OA at the peak in 2022. 

While I enjoy talking about the OA market as much as the next guy, I would never equate someone buying comic art with someone buying a stock index fund (which someone would only buy in the expectation of earning a rate of return) unless that person was buying art explicitly for speculation/resale/investment.

At the dollar levels that we're talking about for some of these pieces, they are investments whether they are consciously recognized by the buyer as such or not.  When they were $10/page, not so much.

When your friend had to raise money to buy a house, he chose to sell a piece of art rather than selling stocks/mutual funds.  Was this because he liked the long-term prospects of stocks better than art, or was it because he had sunk his money into art in lieu of a proper stock portfolio and therefore it was the main liquid asset that he owned (i.e., it was a de facto investment)?

[tth2]

On 6/25/2023 at 12:59 AM, delekkerste said:

Tens of millions of dollars of original art traded hands at the peak of the market's fervor in 2021 and 2022 and yet you consistently make it seem like everybody bought a long time ago and is unaffected by the softening witnessed in certain swaths of the market since then. And this is even when we've already seen numerous examples this year of 2021 and 2022-purchased art being resold at steep losses. You can say it's their fault for re-selling so soon or paying so much in the first place, but, it certainly suggests that there's a lot more art out there that is effectively underwater and that those owners would sell at similar losses if they had to liquidate now.  

And people have every right to be disappointed when their mark-to-market gains have fallen substantially from theoretical peak highs. Most people mentally mark to market their gains and losses to at least a certain extent and get joy from unrealized gains and feel pain when those gains evaporate. The fact that they may still be up, even substantially, from their cost basis, or that the market is merely correcting an unsustainable 60-degree advance, does not alter the fact that some segments of the market are down and that real disappointment or even pain is being felt by some sellers.

I'm sure the guy who consigned the DD #169 and Ronin #1 pages (it was the same person) does not share your cavalier view of what does and doesn't constitute justifiable disappointment in this market.  

The irony is that you've been predicting a decline (if not crash) in OA prices (and all asset prices) longer and louder than just about anyone I know, but when it actually happens you seem to be surprised and disappointed.

Take your victory lap and macht deine Schadenfreude Tanze! 

[Carlo M]

On 6/24/2023 at 7:30 PM, Unstoppablejayd said:

I thought it was an ok buy … yes half splash but rogue in a none rogue outfit - fury and kazar… I think people who want to spend up on lee Williams want X-men on there X-men pages… I actually thought the 248 page was the better buy but got dinged for green inks (I almost got it on a proxy bid lol) 

Ok buy?  In absolute terms, probably yes.  Compared to 2022 level, even looking at second tier character, an excellebt buy.  look at this one for example:

Jim Lee and Scott Williams The Uncanny X-Men #277 Story Page 1 | Lot #94089 | Heritage Auctions (ha.com)

 

[comix4fun]

On 6/25/2023 at 4:09 AM, tth2 said:

 

Take your victory lap and macht deine Schadenfreude Tanze! 

I rebooted my universal translator three times as it looked like it went offline mid-sentence there. 

[delekkerste]

On 6/25/2023 at 5:09 AM, tth2 said:

The irony is that you've been predicting a decline (if not crash) in OA prices (and all asset prices) longer and louder than just about anyone I know, but when it actually happens you seem to be surprised and disappointed

All I've said is that we should not be surprised to see the OA market affected by worsening macro conditions (weaker economy, higher interest rates, lower liquidity), especially if we get a prolonged general downturn in asset prices (which we have actually seen some relief on in recent months). Pretty uncontroversial, really, when even @DJRome, the most optimistic & chilled out guy I know in the hobby, is saying that the market has moved on to a new phase.  

Edited June 25, 2023 by delekkerste

[gumbydarnit]

Thanks to everyone for sharing their views when people get talking about money it can get a bit touchy, but it’s nice to hear everyone’s thoughts (a pretty wide and varied range of opinions).

We are definitely seeing a shift happening over the last couple of auctions and we all are trying to process what that means to the hobby in general and specifically to our personal collecting. 
 

I always enjoy the big auction week flurry of posts! 
 

TODAY IS THE DAY! To quote that famous Heritage auctioneer - “The more you bid the more it’s worth!”
 

BID BID BID! or do as I do WATCH WATCH WATCH!

[KirbyCollector]

Back to today's auction, the consignors should pray they get as much energy and determination out of the auctioneers as the Disney auction consignors did yesterday. I watched several hours of that auction and Heritage worked like crazy for those items... as much as 10+ minutes per item in many cases! It made me wonder if Heritage puts that much more energy into all of its non-OA auctions...

Edited June 25, 2023 by KirbyCollector

[Kryptic1]

On 6/25/2023 at 8:56 AM, KirbyCollector said:

Back to today's auction, the consignors should pray they get as much energy and determination out of the auctioneers as the Disney auction consignors did yesterday. I watched several hours of that auction and Heritage worked like crazy for those items... as much as 10+ minutes per item in many cases! It made me wonder if Heritage puts that much more energy into all of its non-OA auctions...

I don’t think there’s a live auctioneer for the Sunday session, so I wouldn’t expect much energy.

[comix4fun]

On 6/25/2023 at 8:06 AM, Kryptic1 said:

I don’t think there’s a live auctioneer for the Sunday session, so I wouldn’t expect much energy.

That Hawking-Robot voice can get heated...

[KirbyCollector]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:06 AM, Kryptic1 said:

I don’t think there’s a live auctioneer for the Sunday session, so I wouldn’t expect much energy.

D'oh!!! Completely forgot...

[Rick2you2]

On 6/24/2023 at 11:58 PM, ES6 said:

Comic art is not, and has not been, a good investment for about, I don't know exactly, but around 6 to 8 months now? I am a long-time collector, since the 1960's, and was always of the mind that OA and comics were undervalued. I was very active in the mid zeros to to mid-teens buying OA. Around 2020 my perception changed. I thought many comics and much OA was overvalued. 

I have not purchased any higher priced comics or OA since the late twenty teens because I do not like to lose appreciable money. Quite frankly, most of these current prices I consider daunting. I ask myself what is driving these prices. At this point in time, I consider only the top-rated A+/A++ material sound investments. 

If someone has the money, the love for the item, and eyes wide open, then by all means, let them go at it. As a previous poster said, if they got 80k worth of enjoyment, and the disappointment of the financial loss did not outweigh their joy of owning the piece for the time they did, then great for them.

I am not built that way. I don't mind breaking even, or even losing a little bit of money. However, my personality is such that I just won't buy anything, be it a car, a comic, or a shovel, if I think I am being ripped off or making a bad investment or am not getting value for my money. Because I have to feel emotionally satisfied with my purchases. It is not so much the price, because value is value, be it a ten-dollar item or a fifty-thousand-dollar item, but more the point to me of: is their value in it?

And no, I do not see the value in most OA and comics today. I think a big reason why is that on the economic side assets in general are overvalued. Maybe because of the relentless QE and stock market increases, and also probably because up until the last year or so, or less, a house, a collectible coin, a vintage car, or comic, was seen as a better investment than most stocks, or gold, or bonds. And they were. So, the cycle was perpetuated.

But it has peaked. Comics and OA are no longer and have not been for most of this century the relatively small cottage industry it was. The hobby has been elevated to the realm of big-time investment, much like fine art, coins, real estate, and other well-known investment portfolio types. That being the case, I think the hobby is more typically going to experience the financial swings most traditional investments have seen over the decades. 

Would I purchase a 10k, 50k, or even 100k comic or OA in the future. Yeah, I would. But unlike in the past, my main parameter would not be my love for the piece. Now these days, I would focus as much on the value and price stability of the piece as I would my passion for it. That was rarely the case in the past, because I knew if I held on to it for seven, eight years, usually at most, I would always at the least recoup my money, and more likely make a handsome profit. 

I think prices are going to generally continue to decline. How much and how long is the question. Not just in the comics and OA hobby, but numismatics, baseball cards, homes, really just about all assets. Not precious metals. 

The economy is in rough shape. Worse than most realize. Lots of window dressing out there. The rich, which is the very small minority in any collectibles field, will bolster the market for only so long. It is not that they can't. They can because they have the means to. For at least a while, they usually do, in many scenarios. But even they have a breaking point where they feel it is more profitable to wait out the storm then buck against it. At that point markets usually see steep declines. And sometimes it can take many years to gain back the losses. It becomes a snowball effect at some point. Seeing price declines, the average collector, which is most collectors, the guys who cannot afford more than around 20k to 40k a year on their collections, slow down or completely stop purchasing. 

Additionally, collecting is a pursuit of a society that is stable, enjoys abundant essential necessities, and has enough leisure time and has a sizable amount of the population who are blessed to have discretionary income. America these days is very different from just three years ago. Inflation has eaten into people's budgets. People are fidgety due to the political atmosphere. Household debt is at (probably) all time high levels, I know credit card debt is, which is at around one trillion dollars. The national debt is at around, I think it is 32 trillion. There is just way too much debt in this debt-based fiat system economy. Something has to give, and eventually the first things to go is collecting, along with vacations, or expensive vacations, and other activities that are non-essential to everyday living. 

Anyway, I know that was long. I know the people on here are well informed and intelligent and love the hobby. So, I did not want to just make a blanket statement that I think OA from a financial standpoint is currently not a good place to park one's money without stating my reasoning behind the statement.

 

While I generally agree that the prices on a lot of higher priced art is going to level off, and drop, I do so for different reasons. While more people may be buying it, OA is still a niche collectible, favored by former and current readers, who do not constitute a large percentage of the population. When I have shown my pieces to non-collectors, they mostly like the colored pieces, and some of the splashes. Otherwise, it’s more like a polite “that’s nice”. There can be huge price differentials between 2 panel pages, as we all know, but if the public can’t see the value in the difference, the likelihood of it joining the better recognized collectibles, like fine art, are small. I suspect that’s true with any niche collectible; their long term value is a function of their base of users.

As for the economy, I think it’s on fairly steady ground, neither boom nor bust, and not likely to head in either direction for the foreseeable future. Debt isn’t important if income is high enough to cover the payments and extra’s needed in life. For companies who have raised prices on consumer goods, and think they can continue, I think they will be in some trouble because inflation has eaten into paychecks. You will note how store brands are taking an increased share of the market and are pressuring national brands’ pricing. Likewise, as well publicized, commercial real estate is already in trouble (with some limited exceptions like warehousing). But so long as the employment rate remains low, there will be enough to cover base costs and keep the economy going for most people—except for the consumers who acted irrationally, like buying cars with things like 9 year loans. That is the same mindset which, at least to some extent, is replicated in high end pricing for comic art. 

[Unstoppablejayd]

On 6/25/2023 at 5:36 AM, Carlo M said:

Ok buy?  In absolute terms, probably yes.  Compared to 2022 level, even looking at second tier character, an excellebt buy.  look at this one for example:

Jim Lee and Scott Williams The Uncanny X-Men #277 Story Page 1 | Lot #94089 | Heritage Auctions (ha.com)

 

Apples to oranges example… title splash vs interior half splash and again the X-men on the page look like X-men… the star jammers are “X-men adjacent characters “ it’s a full team shot of them and there is some action. Yes the disparity in price doesn’t equate to disparity in quality but to different animals . I would much rather the title splash personally 

[batman_fan]

On 6/25/2023 at 6:56 AM, KirbyCollector said:

Back to today's auction, the consignors should pray they get as much energy and determination out of the auctioneers as the Disney auction consignors did yesterday. I watched several hours of that auction and Heritage worked like crazy for those items... as much as 10+ minutes per item in many cases! It made me wonder if Heritage puts that much more energy into all of its non-OA auctions...

The one item I really wanted but two people wanted it more.  I am now thinking I should have made the winner pay more.

[gumbydarnit]

On 6/25/2023 at 10:23 AM, batman_fan said:

The one item I really wanted but two people wanted it more.  I am now thinking I should have made the winner pay more.

COME ON BATMAN…were you asleep at the batmobile wheel?!?
 

Gotta say that would look pretty awesome out on a display shelf!

[batman_fan]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:32 AM, gumbydarnit said:

COME ON BATMAN…were you asleep at the batmobile wheel?!?
 

Gotta say that would look pretty awesome out on a display shelf!

You just never see them with the box.  I backed off because I snagged that Peanuts strip.  The good thing is I think I hit the point where my wife will look and say "is that new" and I can say "no, I've had that forever"

[tth2]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:24 PM, comix4fun said:

That Hawking-Robot voice can get heated...

The voice always cracks me up when bids come in really fast.

[gumbydarnit]

On 6/25/2023 at 10:35 AM, batman_fan said:

You just never see them with the box.  I backed off because I snagged that Peanuts strip.  The good thing is I think I hit the point where my wife will look and say "is that new" and I can say "no, I've had that forever"

Wait an minute… you hedge the truth a bit to your spouse?!? You’re the first collector I ever heard so that ; )

[gumbydarnit]

I wonder what the takeaway from day 3 of the auction will be.

The feature auction take away-

Molly Hatchet fans have LOTS OF MONEY!

Perhaps the buyer will add the trade dress to make it even more valuable for a future flip…

[Garf]

On 6/25/2023 at 4:40 PM, gumbydarnit said:

Wait an minute… you hedge the truth a bit to your spouse?!? You’re the first collector I ever heard so that ; )

... or simply point out all the big ticket items in this auction, then when you buy something for a fraction if the price it ain't so bad :P

[gumbydarnit]

On 6/25/2023 at 11:53 AM, Garf said:

... or simply point out all the big ticket items in this auction, then when you buy something for a fraction if the price it ain't so bad :P

Yeah- “Hey my Sal Buscema is a bargain compared to his brother John… look at how much this John Buscema Surfer commission cost. This Sal Hulk page is a real bargain! It’s the little bro discount I’m after hun.”