Collector (or Speculator) Fatigue 2 2

[MAR1979]

I was reading go collect earlier - you know where Matt Tuck shamelessly tries to hype any comic for which he has multiple copies to sell - yet another ponderous, self-serving "article" on Spider-Verse alleged "investments" and I got to thinking...

How many collectors are going to seek all these books most of which in few months will sell for a fraction of their hype induced cost?   Seems to me Collector's Fatigue will only increase and those clueless folks who buy stuff when hot will jump off the treadmill.  As the number of those jumping off increases expect less books without true substance to become hot and when they do - cool down faster and faster. IMHO it's good thing but of course I don't sell comics so no bias that comes from lost income or prospect thereof.

Edited June 20, 2023 by MAR1979

[Axelrod]

Isn't that basically what happened in the 90's?  Huge crash in the market after years of over-hyped books?

[Dr. Balls]

I think the freefall of value since the big run up is creating some collector fatigue, in the sense that they've been hooked for a premium price, and if they want to sell, they're taking a heavy loss. That also has to be working against the hobby - buying something that depreciates faster than a new car right off the lot is likely to make someone feel discouraged.

I've been a victim of that a little bit, but thankfully, they are on books I enjoy owning and it's not a big deal because I'm hanging onto them for at least a few years. But, I've taken mild hits on my exploration of modern age stuff - which I won't even touch anymore. I can imagine people who are really deep on the modern exclusives and variants are going to be hurting. I don't think there's much going on here on the boards for resale, maybe sales are better on IG or FB for modern stuff like that.

[Stefan_W]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:26 PM, Axelrod said:

Isn't that basically what happened in the 90's?  Huge crash in the market after years of over-hyped books?

Long story, but the 90s were not really the same in a lot of ways. Back then there were massive changes in the publication industry along with distribution models, and there was no Internet or steady stream of comic movies and TV shows fueling speculation. It was not so much that books were overhyped (although some were, like Dazzler, Frank Miller's Ronin, or Death of Superman to name a few), as people lost interest in comics in general. Quality continually deteriorated as the industry lagged causing a downward spiral. Some of the worst art and paper quality ever in comics were during that period. 

The one similarity between now and the 90s is sports cards seemed to rise and fall at about the same time as comics.  

Edited June 14, 2023 by Stefan_W

[ExNihilo]

On 6/14/2023 at 9:28 AM, Dr. Balls said:

in the sense that they've been hooked for a premium price, and if they want to sell, they're taking a heavy loss.

That sounds more like a speculator than a collector.

I'm reaching a point, and perhaps it's space constraints, where I'm increasingly thinking of stopping collecting because the quality of content isn't captivating.  I can understand why people collect omni's/tpb's because you can wait to see if a run is critically acclaimed before buying/reading it.  I'm starting to think it's cheaper to wait to buy floppies after the fact than to subscribe to a dozen series each month and hoping one of them turns out to be good.

[Lazyboy]

On 6/14/2023 at 11:40 AM, Stefan_W said:

Long story, but the 90s were not really the same in a lot of ways. Back then there were massive changes in the publication industry along with distribution models, and there was no Internet or steady stream of comic movies and TV shows fueling speculation. It was not so much that books were overhyped (although some were, like Dazzler, Frank Miller's Ronin, or Death of Superman to name a few), as people lost interest in comics in general. Quality continually deteriorated as the industry lagged causing a downward spiral. Some of the worst art and paper quality ever in comics were during that period. 

The one similarity between now and the 90s is sports cards seemed to rise and fall at about the same time as comics.  

Also, what were the "massive changes in the publication industry along with distribution models" you mention?

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/14/2023 at 11:55 AM, Lazyboy said:

Also, what were the "massive changes in the publication industry along with distribution models" you mention?

This is a good read:

https://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/1995.html

I had my comic shop in the mid-90s and I remember the hassle of ordering through different distributors. It wasn’t until years later that I read the backstory on what was going on. At the time, it was a costly inconvenience - but where I was at (and pre-internet) there wasn’t a lot of forthcoming knowledge for the little guys.

[MattTheDuck]

On 6/14/2023 at 9:48 AM, ExNihilo said:

That sounds more like a speculator than a collector.

Exactly.  Anyone who's trying to take financial advantage of (probably temporary) hype due to movies, etc is not a collector...at least of the stuff they're trying to buy and flip on spec.  

Now, I will admit to some "collectors fatigue" but most of it manifests in a lack of enthusiasm for hunting books in the field after many, many weekends of dry wells. Or waiting for my bank account to magically replenish after a spree.

[Lazyboy]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:59 PM, Dr. Balls said:

This is a good read:

https://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/1995.html

I had my comic shop in the mid-90s and I remember the hassle of ordering through different distributors. It wasn’t until years later that I read the backstory on what was going on. At the time, it was a costly inconvenience - but where I was at (and pre-internet) there wasn’t a lot of forthcoming knowledge for the little guys.

I know all about Direct distribution and the stuff that ended in Diamond's monopoly. I was just asking for elaboration, especially about the "massive changes in the publication industry".

[Ken Aldred]

On 6/14/2023 at 5:40 PM, Stefan_W said:

Quality continually deteriorated as the industry lagged causing a downward spiral. Some of the worst art and paper quality ever in comics were during that period. 

Sure that made a lot of readers give up.  

Most of what was turning up each week at the LCS was utter garbage, and beyond a certain point anyone with a modicum of common sense would stop wasting money on it and give up the ghost completely, or at least become extremely selective, which still meant a significant downturn in general sales volume for sellers, either way.

I recall the owner of a store getting a bit irate and sarcastic with me when I cut back drastically on my standing orders, but, it’s obviously a case of being offered something that’s actually worth buying for the cover price, not just blindly going along with another’s sense of entitlement and complacency, an issue of adaptation which would soon afterwards prove to have devastating effects for many outlets during that period.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Ken Aldred

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:04 PM, Lazyboy said:

I know all about Direct distribution and the stuff that ended in Diamond's monopoly. I was just asking for elaboration, especially about the "massive changes in the publication industry".

I guess each person is different in what they felt was an important “massive” change in that industry.

The implosion of small indy publishers.

The door slamming shut on comics with warehouses full of unsold Valiant books likely had the same effect on publishing as a banking crash: everything tightens up and only the strong survive - meaning, deadlines are tightened for solicitations, invoices become Net 10 days, etc.

Marvel going bankrupt and it’s variety of business decisions had to have effected publishing - and while it was just gaining steam: the internet and printing technology definitely played a role in the big change of how books were published.

An interesting topic to revisit - I hope others chime in with a little more accurate information.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Dr. Balls

[valiantman]

One of the major differences between the '90s and today is that books are visibly "hot" and "cold" to anyone who bothers to look. In the '90s, two or three price guides had to tell you what was hot and cold. You couldn't see it for yourself.

If a price guide said a book was selling for $100, you had to take their word for it. Today, there are many "$100" books that are in the "sold items" on ebay for $12. Unsold copies of "$100" books are readily available for $18, but they aren't selling.

Reality is very different when double-checking information is available and immediate.

Edited June 14, 2023 by valiantman

[Stefan_W]

On 6/14/2023 at 2:04 PM, Lazyboy said:

I know all about Direct distribution and the stuff that ended in Diamond's monopoly. I was just asking for elaboration, especially about the "massive changes in the publication industry".

This is a cool interview with someone who wrote a book on comics in the 1990s:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/why-90s-was-volatile-decade-comic-book-history-1160883/

I actually learned things reading through this interview that I did not know. As @Dr. Balls pointed out earlier in this thread, when we were in the middle of it information about the ins and outs of changes was not easy to come by. It was all word of mouth and maybe a newspaper article if we were lucky. People going back through archives are filling in the spaces and looking at the bigger picture of changes. From my perspective I just saw a deterioration of titles I loves and an influx of what appeared to be fly by night publishers trying to make a buck. 

[HighRadArt]

On 6/14/2023 at 11:39 AM, Dr. Balls said:

I guess each person is different in what they felt was an important “massive” change in that industry.

The implosion of small indy publishers.

The door slamming shut on comics with warehouses full of unsold Valiant books likely had the same effect on publishing as a banking crash: everything tightens up and only the strong survive - meaning, deadlines are tightened for solicitations, invoices become Net 10 days, etc.

Marvel going bankrupt and it’s variety of business decisions had to have effected publishing - and while it was just gaining steam: the internet and printing technology definitely played a role in the big change of how books were published.

An interesting topic to revisit - I hope others chime in with a little more accurate information.

If I needed instant Information I would look it up in "the" source - Wizard.

[Cman429]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:01 PM, valiantman said:

One of the major differences between the '90s and today is that books are visibly "hot" and "cold" to anyone who bothers to look. In the '90s, two or three price guides had to tell you what was hot and cold. You couldn't see it for yourself.

If a price guide said a book was selling for $100, you had to take their word for it. Today, there are many "$100" books that are in the "sold items" on ebay for $12. Unsold copies of "$100" books are readily available for $18, but they aren't selling.

Reality is very different when double-checking information is available and immediate.

This. I remember Wizard hyping up whatever book they were paid fo hype up and going to the comic store like the day it was released and it already was marked up 3-4x cover price! I also remember seeing same book listed as “worth” $20-30 whatever in their price guide yet my LCS would have a pile of them sitting unsold for less. 

Man, the 90s were the absolute worst time to be a comic fan. It’s amazing they survived all the scams & lies.

[Dr. Balls]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:08 PM, HighRadArt said:

If I needed instant Information I would look it up in "the" source - Wizard.

I changed prices in my shop monthly according to Wizard. And when someone challenged it with the monthly Overstreet, we poo-pooed them away. 

[1Cool]

On 6/14/2023 at 11:57 AM, MAR1979 said:

I was reading go collect earlier - you know where Matt Tuck shamelessly tries to hype any comic for which he has multiple copies to sell - yet another ponderous, self-serving "article" on Spider-Verse alleged "investments" and I got to thinking...

How many collectors are going to seek all these books most of which in few months will sell for a fraction of their hype induced cost?   Seems to me Collector's Fatigue will only increase and those clueless folks who buy stuff when hot will jump off the treadmill.  As the number of those jumping off increases expect less books without true substance to become hot and when they do - cool down faster and faster. IMHO it's good thing but of course I don't sell comics so no bias that comes from lost income or prospect thereof.

I'd suggest collector fatigue happened over the last few years where collectors got tired of trying to buy complete sets and getting discouraged when a couple shot up in price to the point they abandoned the chase.  It will be interesting to see if the guys who sold off collections when prices where top dollar (ie last few years) will miss the books and buy them back at the reduced price.

I do think we are also seeing a flipping fatigue kicking in for most of the industry.  The time frame for a book to be hot (if one pops that month) is very, very short and there is just a large risk of getting caught holding the hot potato unless you buy them dirt cheap.  As hot as the market was for quite a few years there had to be some fatigue eventually.

Edited June 14, 2023 by 1Cool

[ThothAmon]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:08 PM, HighRadArt said:

the" source - Wizard.

[ExNihilo]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:08 PM, HighRadArt said:

If I needed instant Information I would look it up in "the" source - Wizard.

I miss Wizard and I'm baffled that a publishing company or pop culture news site hasn't bought up the rights to Wizard and re-launched it.  It'd just basically be like CBR.com, but I'd think the Wizard name would still carry a lot of goodwill with it.

[buttock]

Clarification, it's speculator fatigue.