Giant Size X-Men #1 Just Graded 9.9. It Begins..... 7 7

[Stefan_W]

On 3/28/2024 at 8:26 AM, Axelrod said:

So, what special friend/prominent member of the collecting community of CGC got this one graded?

 

On 3/28/2024 at 8:47 AM, october said:

It's all so laughably transparent and corrupt at this point. 

 

On 3/28/2024 at 10:08 AM, alexgross.com said:

apparently, metropolis/comicconnect, who are among cgc's biggest customers, submitting tons of books regularly. small wonder. very small. 

So we seamlessly shifted from CGC being awful because there are no 9.8 copies in the census to CGC being corrupt because there now is one? This is like the re-holder scam thread all over again except there is no scam or wrongdoing. 

[Sigur Ros]

[SpineTic]

 

Edited March 28 by SpineTic

[BrashL]

Looking at it a little closer on the hi-def scans. The bottom right front cover isn't perfectly aligned, you can see the interior pages. Not sure if that's a twisted spine or just the way it's in the case. Also, the upper right looks a little, idk bent or indented, certainly not a sharp edge.

Am I seeing things? Are these to be expected now for a 9.9? I'm seeing some YouTubers get surprising 9.8s for books with color-breaking spine ticks so I wonder if we really are looking at updated grading guidelines. 

Edited March 28 by BrashL

[Stefan_W]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:08 AM, alexgross.com said:

apparently, metropolis/comicconnect, who are among cgc's biggest customers, submitting tons of books regularly. small wonder. very small. 

It is an even smaller wonder when using math and stuff instead of conspiracies. Here is a quick rundown:

From the point that CGC opened its doors up until now CGC had never awarded a 9.9 for a GSX 1, so this is the first. Through that entire time only 239 managed to get to 9.8. 

Mega dealers are the ones who submit the largest volume of high value books. 

So up until now, and just like anyone else, these massive dealers like Metropolis/Comic Connect etc had 9.8s for the best copies without a single 9.9. 

Since these big dealers submit the most books of this type (i.e., the highest grade of GSX) the probability is that one of the dealers will hit 9.9 first. To put it another way, if these folks submit 90% of the copies that are at least a 9.8 they are 90% likely to be the first to hit 9.9. 

So nothing even remotely "off" is happening here, at least so far. 

Conspiracy theories make my head hurt, especially when Occam's Razor applies. 

[SpineTic]

[comicginger1789]

Nice book

I am curious to see how this all affects things. Will 9.8's drop? Probably not because only a handful of the people holding those would send theirs in to see if their book is a 9.9. Now if this happened en masse, and a good chunk became 9.9's after a re-grade, that could be interesting. Or perhaps it could close the gap between 9.9 and 9.8 values? It is all very intriguing but I don't remain affected as I am not living in that world of buying/selling (unless I struck the luck and found such a book by happy accident in a neighbour's attic that they told me to keep in thanks for helping them with yard work)

[Axelrod]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:53 AM, Stefan_W said:

It is an even smaller wonder when using math and stuff instead of conspiracies. Here is a quick rundown:

From the point that CGC opened its doors up until now CGC had never awarded a 9.9 for a GSX 1, so this is the first. Through that entire time only 239 managed to get to 9.8. 

Mega dealers are the ones who submit the largest volume of high value books. 

So up until now, and just like anyone else, these massive dealers like Metropolis/Comic Connect etc had 9.8s for the best copies without a single 9.9. 

Since these big dealers submit the most books of this type (i.e., the highest grade of GSX) the probability is that one of the dealers will hit 9.9 first. To put it another way, if these folks submit 90% of the copies that are at least a 9.8 they are 90% likely to be the first to hit 9.9. 

So nothing even remotely "off" is happening here, at least so far. 

Conspiracy theories make my head hurt, especially when Occam's Razor applies. 

These are just completely made up facts, right?  

[Stefan_W]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:19 AM, Axelrod said:

These are just completely made up facts, right?  

It is a fact that there are 239 copies of GSX 1 in the census at 9.8. It is a fact that the likelihood of hitting a 9.9 is linked with the amount of high grade copies (9.8 or better) that someone submits. I specifically used "if" as a guess at how many of the highest grade copies come from dealers since that info is not publicly available. The other facts and the larger story do not change if the percentage of the best copies from those dealers is 50, 70, or 90 - the point is that they submit more copies than regular Joes like us so they have a greater likelihood of hitting a 9.9.

If you believe that the largest dealers are submitting roughly the same amount of books as, or less than, anyone else then we probably dont have a starting point for a rational discussion. 

 

[Axelrod]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:31 AM, Stefan_W said:

If you believe that the largest dealers are submitting roughly the same amount of books as, or less than, anyone else then we probably dont have a starting point for a rational discussion. 

Well, I don't know now, do I?  The point is, I'm not making assumptions based on nothing except it "feeling" correct to me.  

(untrue, I am making an assumption based on it feeling correct to me, which is that CGC gives special consideration - including more favorable grading - to their biggest customers)  

The book has been submitted over 13,000 times across the years.  My suspicion - again, not based on personal knowledge - is that the number of these copies submitted by "not the largest dealers" greatly outnumbers the number of copies submitted by "the largest dealers."  

But who really knows?  

[Stefan_W]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:42 AM, Axelrod said:

Well, I don't know now, do I?  The point is, I'm not making assumptions based on nothing except it "feeling" correct to me.  

(untrue, I am making an assumption based on it feeling correct to me, which is that CGC gives special consideration - including more favorable grading - to their biggest customers)  

The book has been submitted over 13,000 times across the years.  My suspicion - again, not based on personal knowledge - is that the number of these copies submitted by "not the largest dealers" greatly outnumbers the number of copies submitted by "the largest dealers."  

But who really knows?  

When looking at the total copies I suspect you are absolutely right. When focusing on the books that could reasonably have a shot at 9.9 (which are the 239 copies graded at 9.8), I would guess the dealers are disproportionately represented. But yeah, you are completely correct in that we don't know for 100% sure since we dont have access to submission records. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

Edited March 28 by onlyweaknesskryptonite
..

[Motor City Rob]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:53 AM, Stefan_W said:

It is an even smaller wonder when using math and stuff instead of conspiracies. Here is a quick rundown:

From the point that CGC opened its doors up until now CGC had never awarded a 9.9 for a GSX 1, so this is the first. Through that entire time only 239 managed to get to 9.8. 

Mega dealers are the ones who submit the largest volume of high value books. 

So up until now, and just like anyone else, these massive dealers like Metropolis/Comic Connect etc had 9.8s for the best copies without a single 9.9. 

Since these big dealers submit the most books of this type (i.e., the highest grade of GSX) the probability is that one of the dealers will hit 9.9 first. To put it another way, if these folks submit 90% of the copies that are at least a 9.8 they are 90% likely to be the first to hit 9.9. 

So nothing even remotely "off" is happening here, at least so far. 

Conspiracy theories make my head hurt, especially when Occam's Razor applies. 

Agree with everything you've said. There are many examples of Silver Age, Golden Age, Pre Code Horror books that have received a 9.9, and we could argue the age of those books would make it just as difficult, if not more, to get a 9.9. Where was the outrage when each of those popped up? The only thing odd about this GSX1 is the timing being so close to the 9.9 pre-screen announcement. Having a discussion about the book is good, but the hatred and bashing of CGC and big-time dealers is just unnecessary drama and ridiculous. 

[october]

I know it was all the way back in the foggy days of 2022, but have we all forgotten the Clayton Crain acetate 9.9's and 10.0's? 

Whatever. Business as usual in comic land. Everyone go back to sleep. 

[Sigur Ros]

On 3/28/2024 at 3:07 AM, lou_fine said:

as Matt says there surely must be some hidden 9.9's in amongst all of those 9.8's.  

He didn't say that, did he?

That would mean either:

a)  He's admitting they didn't grade them correctly and/or held off giving deserved 9.9's

b)  They've lowered their standards now.

[namisgr]

I wonder if Metro submitted it for grading.  

[Sigur Ros]

On 3/28/2024 at 1:52 PM, namisgr said:

I wonder if Metro submitted it for grading.  

The source would definitely be interesting information....

[DC#]

On 3/28/2024 at 9:44 AM, Motor City Rob said:

Agree with everything you've said. There are many examples of Silver Age, Golden Age, Pre Code Horror books that have received a 9.9, and we could argue the age of those books would make it just as difficult, if not more, to get a 9.9. Where was the outrage when each of those popped up? The only thing odd about this GSX1 is the timing being so close to the 9.9 pre-screen announcement. Having a discussion about the book is good, but the hatred and bashing of CGC and big-time dealers is just unnecessary drama and ridiculous. 

My very unprofessional opinion - no particular order

- For modern books - 9.9/10 probably need to be the "goal" in terms of collectors looking for rarity.    9.8 is just too common.   And this probably applies to a lot of late Copper stuff too (NM 98).     So I don't mind the idea that the category of Mint books expands to some larger ratio - top 1%?    Ultimate Fallout 4 has 16,251 Universal copies with 4,249 9.8s - that is 26% of books at 9.8.    1% of that 16k as 9.9 would give you 162 - where there are none currently.   That starts to put the 9.9 in the same rarity range as 9.8 copies of IH181, ASM 129, etc etc.    But still a lot more common than really high grade early silver and gold.  

- For really valuable Silver or Bronze 9.8s where the price gap between 9.8 and 9.6 is very, very large - not sure how many people will take the chance.    Very often discussed that the difference between a 9.6 and 9.8 can often feel as if it was determined by the direction of the wind that given day.   So I am skeptical that we will see the IH181 9.9 population jump from 1 to 10 anytime soon or if ever.   And yes, there are always high-grade, un-graded copies out there but the 14k Universal copies of 181 thus far have 9.8 return rate of 1% (Would be interesting to see how that return rate has changed over time).    Doesn't feel like they are adding 20 new 9.8s for every 2k copies graded.     Now, if you are sitting on a really attractive non-key Silver issue in 9.8 - maybe you take a swing and get a 1 of 1 9.9.     That could open up a whole different market of collecting.   

So - I am not overly concerned that this one GSX book is a sign of a sea change.    But I do expect to see growth of 9.9s in Moderns - but even that will take time to become the new 9.8 

[Axelrod]

The very concept of a 9.9 "pre-screen" makes no sense (is that really something they are going to be offering?) given the historically comically low numbers of 9.9s (and 10s) given.

Unless what they are tacitly admitting/saying is that their 9.9 grading has been too stingy in the past and they are now going to be a bit more generous with that grading going forward.

[Mr. Zipper]

Whether it was a "gift 9.9" for a high profile submitter, a PR stunt or an honest to goodness 9.9, does it have any affect on 99.99% of the collecting community?