Jaydogrules

Why is it valid to use 8.5 sales data to extrapolate a 9.2 value, when it's not equally valid to use the 9.4 sale to extrapolate a 9.2? We have a 9.4 Cerebus sale from this year that sold for more than double what 9.6 Hulk 181s have sold for, at least per GPA. Further, at least 3 posters on this board (two of them dealers) in this very thread have said they would trade a 9.2 Hulk for a 9.2 Cerebus straight up. (Here's a hint - it's not that they are Cerebus super fans; it's that the book is simply worth more.) 8.5 =/= 9.2 for 90% of the books out there. Okay let me put it another way for you: In 2004 a cerebus 1, 9.4 sold for about $10,600. In 2010, six years later, with that record breaking sale of a 9.4 on the record, a 9.2 could only muster $1725 on a sale. Two years later in 2012 another 9.2 sold for $1434. That is a DECLINE in value over a two year period of about 17%. In 2014 another 9.4 sold for $9000. That's also a DECLINE in value, this time of about 15%. In that time you have one lone sale that appears to help your case...The 9.0 that sold for $2500 last year. With all of the other sales in surrounding grades and time frames, however, that cannot be considered anything other than an outlier. Because this year, there seems to be a more return to form as other similarly high grade copies are going for only $800-900 with just one sale that's been "pending" on comic link for nearly two months at $1050. But as far as the top two grades of the book is concerned there has been a very real price deflation observed over the last ten years. That is, there is simply nothing out there to suggest that anything has changed and that a 9.2 would suddenly more than double in value right now to have a higher FMV than the Hulk 181 in like grade. -J. So then why can't the 10K price be an outliner? Wasn;t that the first 9.4 signed copy to sell? If we tossed that price out, what do we have? Well we have a book going up in value in 9.4. But even if we kept that, the price goes back up when we consider the recent 9.4 sale compared to the previous 9.4 sales in 2009 and 2010. I suspect the Blue label is part of that reason. I also suspect that's why the book took suck a large jump from the 2010 and 2012 yellow prices of 9.0. Of roughly (2x) $1500 Yellow to $2500 Blue. Also the 9.2 was $2,136 in 2005 unless you have another sale that I missed. Part of the problem is signed copies are more common than the blue labels in 9.0-9.4. Its not an easy book to figure out, I will say that. But your reasoning I believe are incorrect. You're certainly free to disagree with my conclusions (though I don't see how you do), it still doesn't change the numbers. And I didn't use the 2005 sale of the 9.2 for $ 2136 because we had more recent data available since then. BUT, if you insist, that would actually equate to a 33% DECLINE in value over the same 10 year period, give or take that the 9.4 has also declined in value. And again, your best case scenario, even if you average out the more recent sales in 9.4 would be a book that has been flat for years. Not a book that's lighting up sales records, and certainly nothing to suggest a 9.2 will have more than DOUBLED from its very recent lows to somehow have a higher FMV than a Hulk 181 9.2. Not by any stretch of logic or any myopic reading of the publicly available sales data can such a conclusion reasonably be reached IMO. -J. I see part of your problem, your $1434 was for a 9.0 not a 9.2. ( 9.0 ) Sgnt series/Signed by Dave Sim (1) $1,434 $1,434 Feb-2012 I would also add the 9.0 price has gone up also since the last sale from 2005 from $1750 to $2500 But here is how I would get a price 9.4 blue= 9K (2014 Price) Only sale 9.0 blue $2500K (2013) Price going up from 2005 8.5 blue $850, $1050 prices (2014) Price going up from previous year 4.5K doesn't seem unreasonable according to these prices points. Now lets look at yellow prices 9.4 Yellow= 7K (2010 Price) 9.2 Yellow $2,136 (2005 Price) 9.0 Yellow $1434 (2012 Price) So here a reasonable price for a 9.2 yellow would be $2000-$3000. Based on current sales I would guess toward the higher end of that estimate. Like I said earlier you literally have only ONE sale, the 9.0 that helps your case at all. Literally everything else says the book is basically stagnant to declining in value. -J. Its not one sale I am basing the info on, its four as shown above. That is not correct. You are parsing out sales that hurt you, calling sales "sales" that aren't, and narrowing the field of comps to give a distorted impression about what's really been going on with this book for the last ten years. It is what it is, again, don't shoot the messenger. -J.

My statement was that the 9.0 is an outlier and you are basically hinging the entire basis of your argument on that one single sale. The 8.5 is a more recent sale, it closed at $850. That drags down the current FMV for your 9.0. And again there is nothing to suggest that a 9.2 has doubled in price from its last sale. Nothing except wishful thinking for a book that is fading in relevance and mass collector interest. -J.

Why is it valid to use 8.5 sales data to extrapolate a 9.2 value, when it's not equally valid to use the 9.4 sale to extrapolate a 9.2? We have a 9.4 Cerebus sale from this year that sold for more than double what 9.6 Hulk 181s have sold for, at least per GPA. Further, at least 3 posters on this board (two of them dealers) in this very thread have said they would trade a 9.2 Hulk for a 9.2 Cerebus straight up. (Here's a hint - it's not that they are Cerebus super fans; it's that the book is simply worth more.) 8.5 =/= 9.2 for 90% of the books out there. Okay let me put it another way for you: In 2004 a cerebus 1, 9.4 sold for about $10,600. In 2010, six years later, with that record breaking sale of a 9.4 on the record, a 9.2 could only muster $1725 on a sale. Two years later in 2012 another 9.2 sold for $1434. That is a DECLINE in value over a two year period of about 17%. In 2014 another 9.4 sold for $9000. That's also a DECLINE in value, this time of about 15%. In that time you have one lone sale that appears to help your case...The 9.0 that sold for $2500 last year. With all of the other sales in surrounding grades and time frames, however, that cannot be considered anything other than an outlier. Because this year, there seems to be a more return to form as other similarly high grade copies are going for only $800-900 with just one sale that's been "pending" on comic link for nearly two months at $1050. But as far as the top two grades of the book is concerned there has been a very real price deflation observed over the last ten years. That is, there is simply nothing out there to suggest that anything has changed and that a 9.2 would suddenly more than double in value right now to have a higher FMV than the Hulk 181 in like grade. -J. So then why can't the 10K price be an outliner? Wasn;t that the first 9.4 signed copy to sell? If we tossed that price out, what do we have? Well we have a book going up in value in 9.4. But even if we kept that, the price goes back up when we consider the recent 9.4 sale compared to the previous 9.4 sales in 2009 and 2010. I suspect the Blue label is part of that reason. I also suspect that's why the book took suck a large jump from the 2010 and 2012 yellow prices of 9.0. Of roughly (2x) $1500 Yellow to $2500 Blue. Also the 9.2 was $2,136 in 2005 unless you have another sale that I missed. Part of the problem is signed copies are more common than the blue labels in 9.0-9.4. Its not an easy book to figure out, I will say that. But your reasoning I believe are incorrect. You're certainly free to disagree with my conclusions (though I don't see how you do), it still doesn't change the numbers. And I didn't use the 2005 sale of the 9.2 for $ 2136 because we had more recent data available since then. BUT, if you insist, that would actually equate to a 33% DECLINE in value over the same 10 year period, give or take that the 9.4 has also declined in value. And again, your best case scenario, even if you average out the more recent sales in 9.4 would be a book that has been flat for years. Not a book that's lighting up sales records, and certainly nothing to suggest a 9.2 will have more than DOUBLED from its very recent lows to somehow have a higher FMV than a Hulk 181 9.2. Not by any stretch of logic or any myopic reading of the publicly available sales data can such a conclusion reasonably be reached IMO. -J. I see part of your problem, your $1434 was for a 9.0 not a 9.2. ( 9.0 ) Sgnt series/Signed by Dave Sim (1) $1,434 $1,434 Feb-2012 I would also add the 9.0 price has gone up also since the last sale from 2005 from $1750 to $2500 But here is how I would get a price 9.4 blue= 9K (2014 Price) Only sale 9.0 blue $2500K (2013) Price going up from 2005 8.5 blue $850, $1050 prices (2014) Price going up from previous year 4.5K doesn't seem unreasonable according to these prices points. Now lets look at yellow prices 9.4 Yellow= 7K (2010 Price) 9.2 Yellow $2,136 (2005 Price) 9.0 Yellow $1434 (2012 Price) So here a reasonable price for a 9.2 yellow would be $2000-$3000. Based on current sales I would guess toward the higher end of that estimate. And my estimate for a 9.2 would be much closer to $2000, but not less than $2000. Either we're not far apart after all. Now let's look at the Hulk 181 SS selling for $3700 in march, and a 9.2 blue trending upwards with two recent sales of $3200 and even an inferior 9.2 going for $2,750 and you see the very legitimate questioning of OPG's ranking. (thumbs u And FYI, that comic link sale for the cerebus 1 8.5 is only "pending" and even if it were to actually consummate will not be reflected in GPA. Which works out well for the book better in the long run with all of the other under GPA sales that have been realized for the book in other grades on there. Like I said earlier you literally have only ONE sale, the 9.0 that helps your case at all. Literally everything else says the book is basically stagnant to declining in value. -J.

Why is it valid to use 8.5 sales data to extrapolate a 9.2 value, when it's not equally valid to use the 9.4 sale to extrapolate a 9.2? We have a 9.4 Cerebus sale from this year that sold for more than double what 9.6 Hulk 181s have sold for, at least per GPA. Further, at least 3 posters on this board (two of them dealers) in this very thread have said they would trade a 9.2 Hulk for a 9.2 Cerebus straight up. (Here's a hint - it's not that they are Cerebus super fans; it's that the book is simply worth more.) 8.5 =/= 9.2 for 90% of the books out there. Okay let me put it another way for you: In 2004 a cerebus 1, 9.4 sold for about $10,600. In 2010, six years later, with that record breaking sale of a 9.4 on the record, a 9.2 could only muster $1725 on a sale. Two years later in 2012 another 9.2 sold for $1434. That is a DECLINE in value over a two year period of about 17%. In 2014 another 9.4 sold for $9000. That's also a DECLINE in value, this time of about 15%. In that time you have one lone sale that appears to help your case...The 9.0 that sold for $2500 last year. With all of the other sales in surrounding grades and time frames, however, that cannot be considered anything other than an outlier. Because this year, there seems to be a more return to form as other similarly high grade copies are going for only $800-900 with just one sale that's been "pending" on comic link for nearly two months at $1050. But as far as the top two grades of the book is concerned there has been a very real price deflation observed over the last ten years. That is, there is simply nothing out there to suggest that anything has changed and that a 9.2 would suddenly more than double in value right now to have a higher FMV than the Hulk 181 in like grade. -J. So then why can't the 10K price be an outliner? Wasn;t that the first 9.4 signed copy to sell? If we tossed that price out, what do we have? Well we have a book going up in value in 9.4. But even if we kept that, the price goes back up when we consider the recent 9.4 sale compared to the previous 9.4 sales in 2009 and 2010. I suspect the Blue label is part of that reason. I also suspect that's why the book took suck a large jump from the 2010 and 2012 yellow prices of 9.0. Of roughly (2x) $1500 Yellow to $2500 Blue. Also the 9.2 was $2,136 in 2005 unless you have another sale that I missed. Part of the problem is signed copies are more common than the blue labels in 9.0-9.4. Its not an easy book to figure out, I will say that. But your reasoning I believe are incorrect. You're certainly free to disagree with my conclusions (though I don't see how you do), it still doesn't change the numbers. And I didn't use the 2005 sale of the 9.2 for $ 2136 because we had more recent data available since then. BUT, if you insist, that would actually equate to a 33% DECLINE in value over the same 10 year period, give or take that the 9.4 has also declined in value. And again, your best case scenario, even if you average out the more recent sales in 9.4 would be a book that has been flat for years. Not a book that's lighting up sales records, and certainly nothing to suggest a 9.2 will have more than DOUBLED from its very recent lows to somehow have a higher FMV than a Hulk 181 9.2. Not by any stretch of logic or any myopic reading of the publicly available sales data can such a conclusion reasonably be reached IMO. -J.

Why is it valid to use 8.5 sales data to extrapolate a 9.2 value, when it's not equally valid to use the 9.4 sale to extrapolate a 9.2? We have a 9.4 Cerebus sale from this year that sold for more than double what 9.6 Hulk 181s have sold for, at least per GPA. Further, at least 3 posters on this board (two of them dealers) in this very thread have said they would trade a 9.2 Hulk for a 9.2 Cerebus straight up. (Here's a hint - it's not that they are Cerebus super fans; it's that the book is simply worth more.) 8.5 =/= 9.2 for 90% of the books out there. Okay let me put it another way for you: In 2004 a cerebus 1, 9.4 sold for about $10,600. In 2010, six years later, even with that record breaking sale of a 9.4 on the record, a 9.2 could only muster $1725 on a sale. Two years later in 2012 another 9.2 sold for $1434. That is a DECLINE in value over a two year period of about 17%. In 2014 another 9.4 sold for $9000. That's also a DECLINE in value, this time of about 15%. In that time you have one lone sale that appears to help your case...The 9.0 that sold for $2500. With all of the other sales in surrounding grades and time frames, however, that cannot be considered anything other than an outlier. Because this year, there seems to be a more return to form as other similarly high grade copies are going for only $800-900 with just one sale that's been "pending" on comic link for nearly two months at $1050. But as far as the top two grades of the book is concerned there has been a very real price deflation observed over the last ten years. That is, there is simply nothing out there to suggest that anything has changed and that a 9.2 would suddenly more than double in value right now to have a higher FMV than the Hulk 181 in like grade. -J.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with you on that. I would argue that the 8.5 sale of cerebus 1 that just sold for $850 a few weeks ago drags down the current value of that 9.0 to more in the $1500 range. And that might be generous. There is simply no recent publicly available sales data to suggest that a 9.2, regardless of label colour, would somehow double its last sales results. If anything, all data points to it being flat or even lower in value since 2012. The demand for the book seems to be more theoretical than real. -J. But an 8.0 sold for $833 in Aug. The $850 was in Jun. So now what? Exactly. Now what ? That puts the value of an 8.0 and 8.5 in the $800-900 range. Which would put the current FMV of a 9.0 generously at about $1500. The book is soft, don't shoot the messenger. -J. I'm not shooting the messenger, but the book isn't dropping in all grades either as I just showed. Not sure how 8.5 at $850=$1500 in 9.0 and 8.0 at $833 = $1500 in 9.0 also. Maybe the photos are part of the reason why the 8.5 went for less. Link to 8.5 sale http://www.ebay.com/itm/CEREBUS-1-CGC-8-5-2000-PRINT-RUN-SUPER-RARE-IN-THIS-CONDITION-HTF-/251567379955?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a929595f3 Link to 8.0 http://www.ebay.com/itm/Cerebus-1-1977-CGC-8-0-ow-w-1st-Cerebus-appearance-by-Dave-Sim-NO-RESERVE-/171397561372?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item27e8173c1c&nma=true&si=d0tvFngGNNmNaeEsocRHzChtLcU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557 Price compression is not at all uncommon in books like this. Take for example the 7.0 and 7.5 on comic link. The 7.0 is pending at $786, meanwhile the 7.5 is listed with a BIN for $750, with no takers and a top offer of $550. Also on c link is an 8.5 pending for $1,050, with another 8.5 right below it with an offer no higher than the $850 the last one closed at on ebay. As I said, the book is at best flat, and at worst going down in value from its top grade (9.4) on down. There is simply no basis for concluding that a 9.2 would somehow be the lone grade to double in value from its previous sales. -J. I added another piece of data also before you posted. "The 8.5 price went up from last year. From $820-$855. So no, I do not agree with your analysis." That sure would look like a "flat" value to me. And still nothing to support the notion that a 9.2 would somehow double its last sale if one came to market. -J. So then by that same analysis the 9.0 would be flat at $2500 I like what you're doing there, but no. . I'm asserting that the more recent sales of the 8.5 have dragged down the 9.0 to more the $1500 range. That 9.0 sale certainly is not frozen in time as more recent sales in an adjacent grade have remained soft and have certainly impacted its FMV. -J.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with you on that. I would argue that the 8.5 sale of cerebus 1 that just sold for $850 a few weeks ago drags down the current value of that 9.0 to more in the $1500 range. And that might be generous. There is simply no recent publicly available sales data to suggest that a 9.2, regardless of label colour, would somehow double its last sales results. If anything, all data points to it being flat or even lower in value since 2012. The demand for the book seems to be more theoretical than real. -J. But an 8.0 sold for $833 in Aug. The $850 was in Jun. So now what? Exactly. Now what ? That puts the value of an 8.0 and 8.5 in the $800-900 range. Which would put the current FMV of a 9.0 generously at about $1500. The book is soft, don't shoot the messenger. -J. I'm not shooting the messenger, but the book isn't dropping in all grades either as I just showed. Not sure how 8.5 at $850=$1500 in 9.0 and 8.0 at $833 = $1500 in 9.0 also. Maybe the photos are part of the reason why the 8.5 went for less. Link to 8.5 sale http://www.ebay.com/itm/CEREBUS-1-CGC-8-5-2000-PRINT-RUN-SUPER-RARE-IN-THIS-CONDITION-HTF-/251567379955?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a929595f3 Link to 8.0 http://www.ebay.com/itm/Cerebus-1-1977-CGC-8-0-ow-w-1st-Cerebus-appearance-by-Dave-Sim-NO-RESERVE-/171397561372?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item27e8173c1c&nma=true&si=d0tvFngGNNmNaeEsocRHzChtLcU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557 Price compression is not at all uncommon in books like this. Take for example the 7.0 and 7.5 on comic link. The 7.0 is pending at $786, meanwhile the 7.5 is listed with a BIN for $750, with no takers and a top offer of $550. Also on c link is an 8.5 pending for $1,050, with another 8.5 right below it with an offer no higher than the $850 the last one closed at on ebay. As I said, the book is at best flat, and at worst going down in value from its top grade (9.4) on down. There is simply no basis for concluding that a 9.2 would somehow be the lone grade to double in value from its previous sales. -J. I added another piece of data also before you posted. "The 8.5 price went up from last year. From $820-$855. So no, I do not agree with your analysis." That sure would look like a "flat" value to me. And still nothing to support the notion that a 9.2 would somehow double its last sale price if one came to market. There is nothing happening in the market to suggest people are waiting on pins and needles to snap up copies of this at a premium in high grade (which an 8.5 is). -J.

And your post shows your poor reading comprehension skills. What I actually did was extrapolate a current FMV for a 9.0 based on the recent 8.5 sale. RIP sought to use that 9.0 sale as a basis for stating that a 9.2 would do even better. In disputing that I referred him to the 8.5 sale which actually suggests, in my opinion, that the book is going backward, drags down the FMV of the 9.0 that closed a year ago, and is further evidence that the book is declining in ALL grades, so there is no reason to believe that a 9.2 would somehow defy every other grade of the book and magically double in value. But please, do continue your attempts at petty and derisive posting instead of posting any actual relevant publicly available sales data. (thumbs u -J. No I read it just fine. It shows you have no idea what you're talking about in this. Still waiting on that publicly available sales data, bud, that backs up anything you have to say. (thumbs u -J.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with you on that. I would argue that the 8.5 sale of cerebus 1 that just sold for $850 a few weeks ago drags down the current value of that 9.0 to more in the $1500 range. And that might be generous. There is simply no recent publicly available sales data to suggest that a 9.2, regardless of label colour, would somehow double its last sales results. If anything, all data points to it being flat or even lower in value since 2012. The demand for the book seems to be more theoretical than real. -J. But an 8.0 sold for $833 in Aug. The $850 was in Jun. So now what? Exactly. Now what ? That puts the value of an 8.0 and 8.5 in the $800-900 range. Which would put the current FMV of a 9.0 generously at about $1500. The book is soft, don't shoot the messenger. -J. I'm not shooting the messenger, but the book isn't dropping in all grades either as I just showed. Not sure how 8.5 at $850=$1500 in 9.0 and 8.0 at $833 = $1500 in 9.0 also. Maybe the photos are part of the reason why the 8.5 went for less. Link to 8.5 sale http://www.ebay.com/itm/CEREBUS-1-CGC-8-5-2000-PRINT-RUN-SUPER-RARE-IN-THIS-CONDITION-HTF-/251567379955?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a929595f3 Link to 8.0 http://www.ebay.com/itm/Cerebus-1-1977-CGC-8-0-ow-w-1st-Cerebus-appearance-by-Dave-Sim-NO-RESERVE-/171397561372?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item27e8173c1c&nma=true&si=d0tvFngGNNmNaeEsocRHzChtLcU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557 Price compression is not at all uncommon in books like this. Take for example the 7.0 and 7.5 on comic link. The 7.0 is pending at $786, meanwhile the 7.5 is listed with a BIN for $750, with no takers and a top offer of $550. Also on c link is an 8.5 pending for $1,050, with another 8.5 right below it with an offer no higher than the $850 the last one closed at on ebay. As I said, the book is at best flat, and at worst going down in value from its top grade (9.4) on down. There is simply no basis for concluding that a 9.2 would somehow be the lone grade to double in value from its previous sales. -J.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with you on that. I would argue that the 8.5 sale of cerebus 1 that just sold for $850 a few weeks ago drags down the current value of that 9.0 to more in the $1500 range. And that might be generous. There is simply no recent publicly available sales data to suggest that a 9.2, regardless of label colour, would somehow double its last sales results. If anything, all data points to it being flat or even lower in value since 2012. The demand for the book seems to be more theoretical than real. -J. But an 8.0 sold for $833 in Aug. The $850 was in Jun. So now what? Exactly. Now what ? That puts the value of an 8.0 and 8.5 in the $800-900 range. Which would put the current FMV of a 9.0 generously at about $1500. The book is soft, don't shoot the messenger. -J.

And your post shows your poor reading comprehension skills. What I actually did was extrapolate a current FMV for a 9.0 based on the recent 8.5 sale. RIP sought to use that 9.0 sale as a basis for stating that a 9.2 would do even better. In disputing that I referred him to the 8.5 sale which actually suggests, in my opinion, that the book is going backward, drags down the FMV of the 9.0 that closed a year ago, and is further evidence that the book is declining in ALL grades, so there is no reason to believe that a 9.2 would somehow defy every other grade of the book and magically double in value. But please, do continue your attempts at petty and derisive posting instead of posting any actual relevant publicly available sales data. (thumbs u -J.

Going to have to respectfully disagree with you on that. I would argue that the 8.5 sale of cerebus 1 that just sold for $850 a few weeks ago drags down the current value of that 9.0 to more in the $1500 range. And that might be generous. There is simply no recent publicly available sales data to suggest that a 9.2, regardless of label colour, would somehow double its last sales results. If anything, all data points to it being flat or even lower in value since 2012. The demand for the book seems to be more theoretical than real. -J.

No. OPG states they are "2014 Values". And yes I agree OPG makes itself irrelevant by attempting to extrapolate 2014 values from 2013 sales. Hence the OP's, original point of the thread- Overstreet obviously got it wrong. -J.

Polls on this board, which represent opinions, mean nothing. It doesn't change the actual publicly available sales figures, which represent facts. -J. Except when you don't understand what those "publicly available sales figures" mean, and when you don't understand that a signature series book is not the same thing as a universal book. But, other than that, sure. Back to the con. See you gents when I get home. Did you really just say that ? You are aware that the only 9.2 cerebus 1's on the census are SS file copies, right ? And what have those sold for in the past ? About $1400-1700? What did a hulk 181 SS copy in a 9.2 sell for just this past March ? $3700. The most recent publicly recorded sale for a blue 9.2 hulk 181 is now $2,750. Lower than the $3200 last month but still higher than anything any cerebus 1, 9.2 has ever sold for and a whole lot more than OPG "value" on the BA list. You want to "assume" a 9.2 cerebus 1 would sell for $ X dollars more now than it did the last time one sold, based on what exactly ? The 9.4 that sold for 15% less from its prior recorded sale ? The 8.5 that couldn't even break $900 a few weeks ago? This somehow leads you to believe that a 9.2 would have gone "up"? I guess you also missed the thread where a boardie who's living in the real world said that he could only move his early issues of cerebus at 25% of OPG. That's 25% of OPG. Not entirely an apples to apples comparison but it is an in the trenches testament to the LACK of demand for this title, which is WHY it under performs in every single grade except its top one or two, and even those have experienced price deflation. So please do tell me, oh sage one, what exactly am I "misunderstanding" here? You keep saying I'm "wrong" about everything, which is a meaningless conclusory statement since you STILL have yet to offer up any competing publicly available sales data that even suggests that I am "wrong" or what I am "wrong" about. Frankly I believe my "wrongness" only exists in the space between your ears. I have also decided that there will be no further reason for me to post in this thread until you or anyone else offers up any publicly available sales data that actually supports any (and I mean any) of your statements about the purported "value" of a cerebus 1 in a 9.2 vs the real world value of a hulk 181, 9.2. -J.

Polls on this board, which represent opinions, mean nothing. It doesn't change the actual publicly available sales figures, which represent facts. -J.

-J.

I am honestly trying to figure out a single correct thing that you wrote above. -J.

Poll results on the boards are irrelevant and do not change the actual sales figures on the year. -J.

You're still not keyed into the difference in extremely rare books. The rarer the book, the more exponential the price increases with each grade level. $12-15K? More like $25-$30k. Going to have to call you out on this. The notion of anyone paying $25k or anything close to that for any copy of a cerebus 1 is nothing short of wishful thinking. The book may be "rare" but demand is weak. Where's the hard, publicly available data that supports that claim? That "demand is weak"...? I'll hang up and take my answer over the air. Because they aren't the same things. And even if that weren't true, you are trying to base your claim on two sales in ten years as some sort of "trend." But it IS true, and you are comparing books that aren't the same thing. All of the unsold copies sitting on various comic book sites tells me demand is weak. All of the prices realized at auction thus far this year tell me demand is weak. All of the low ball offers (what few offers it does receive) when a copy is put up for sale tell me demand is weak. The fact that it realized a price 15% lower in its top grade from one publicly available offering to another tells me that demand is weak. If you know of any other copies offered and recorded publicly please post it here and I will reconsider my analysis. All of the aforementioned is publicly available data that I have used to arrive at my conclusions. Contrary to your belief, it has nothing to do with "emotion". -J.

You're still not keyed into the difference in extremely rare books. The rarer the book, the more exponential the price increases with each grade level. $12-15K? More like $25-$30k. Going to have to call you out on this. The notion of anyone paying $25k or anything close to that for any copy of a cerebus 1 is nothing short of wishful thinking. The book may be "rare" but demand is weak. And you still haven't explained why you believe a sale of a copy of cerebus 1 in 9.4 in 2004 for $10.6k or thereabouts and then again in 2014 for $9k "isn't" a 15% decline in value over a ten year period based on publicly available sales data. -J.

Agreed, garlanda's methodology is actually sound. Problem is, using sound methodology to extrapolate a current value for a cerebus 1 9.2 does not produce a figure the pro cerebus folks can live with. So here's another monkey wrench for you... Any existing cerebus 9.2 that comes to market will be an SS file copy. Those have NEVER sold for more than 2500, even before the 15% swoon in its prices over the last 10 years in its top grade. The last SS hulk 181 9.2 that sold just last march was for $3700. Does anybody seriously think that any of those 9.2 cerebus 1 copies would come anywhere near sniffing that amount? All existing public sales data says "No". -J.

Yes! That's exactly it! That's what the original comment was all about! Overstreet published a list which was a comparison of the selling price in US$ of a single copy of several Bronze Age comics, including a single copy of Hulk 181 vs a single copy of Cerebus 1 in NM-/9.2 condition. That is the topic of the thread in which we are debating. Everything else has been obfuscation. Is Hulk 181 more popular? Yes. Does Hulk 181 sell more copies daily? Yes. Does the highest-graded copy of Hulk 181 sell for more than the highest-graded copy of Cerebus 1? Yes. Is Hulk 181 more of an "iconic key?" Yes. Have recent sales shown Hulk 181 to be continuing to increase in price? Yes. Is Hulk 181 likely to outpace Cerebus 1 and become clearly more valuable in the near future? I think it will. Would one discrete copy of Hulk 181 in NM- sell for more than one discrete copy of Cerebus 1 in NM- in the year 2013? The people who made the list say "No," and many of us agree with them. To continue to assert otherwise indicates that either: one does not actually want to talk about the topic, or one fundamentally disagrees with Overstreet's valuation process (in which case one should probably just disregard the whole list). I'm not sure what point this is trying to make. New GPA highs are set for books all the time. That's how/why they go up in value. -J. Jaydog, why are you so willing to concede that the upward spiral of Hulk 181 prices is normal, but the thought of Cerebus 1 increasing in value is so laughable? Yes, I know that a new GPA high has not been recently set by Cerebus 1, but that could change in the blink of an eye. We simply don't have the information to accurately gauge the true interest in Cerebus 1, but a lot of dealers have said they would price a Cerebus 1 (9.2 or 9.4) higher than a Hulk 181 in the same grade. Garlanda, I agree with the vast bulk of your post and I am willing to concede that anything is possible. If someone were to announce a Cerebus cartoon, with the way the hobby seems to be now, I have no doubt that would immediately cause all of the existing high grade copies available right now to garner attention. However that has not happened, and there isn't any indication that will be happening anytime soon, or ever. I have actually cited and linked to some very recent publicly available sales data that in fact shows the following about cerebus 1: -That an 8.5 sold for just $850 a few weeks ago; -That there has been a 15% decline in value for a cerebus 1 in its top grade (9.4) over the last ten years; -That there are multiple similarly higher grade and mid grade copies sitting at multiple auction house sites and ebay for months (years?) with little to no buying interest. All of this publicly available data does much to show what can only be described as a very real and palpable disconnect between what the apparent enthusiasm and glee a dealer would greet the opportunity to acquire and sell a high grade copy of cerebus 1, versus actual buyer interest in the book. A point similar to what Alexander has been making. That is why their statements on what they "would" price a cerebus 1 at a 9.2 if they got one in carries little weight, as it is nothing but speculation and conjecture that belies the reality of the actual level of interest amongst the general buying public when it comes to this book. Yes the book still has some juice in its very, very top grade (9.4). But if the book had any "real" juice and any "real" collector interest, there would not be such a precipitous drop off in prices as you go down in grades. The fact that it trades at what it does in only its highest one or two grades indicates merely a niche collector interest from those who are willing to pay a premium for "highest graded copies" of books that they are a fan of (see also Hulk 181, 9.9 for $150k, or even 9.8 for $10K+). There is simply no publicly available sales data going back 15 years to suggest that a 9.2 copy of cerebus 1 would go for anywhere near $3000 in today's market. So again, while anything is possible, I simply dispute Overstreet's contentions about the book, and I have attempted to explain why I do by linking to actual sales figures and listings. This is nothing against Cerebus. Books fade and then surge all the time. It happened to hulk 181 even. It just so happens that this is hulk 181's year, no so much for cerebus 1. A fact that Overstreet could not have predicted when he was compiling his "2014 values" back in 2013. @Blaze: Thank you for the ups on my FF 36. She's definitely a keeper. -J.

+1 3k is a white paged, well centered 9.4. One sale a trend does not make. ...and here is recent, publicly available sales data that suggests you are mistaken: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Incredible-Hulk-181-CGC-9-4-White-Pages-1st-Wolverine-Full-also-selling-180-/271593526196?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3f3c3c53b4 I understand that some of you may not be able to "accept" what this "common" book actually sells for. However the data is what it is. -J. He accepted an offer that wasn't $3,800? Unless you are the seller, you have no idea what sales price was. I've seen more than 2 9.4's sell on the boards in the last month in the $3,000.00 area. Ask RMA, he was the seller of one of them. And it was a beauty. You would be better served to show a little humility on the boards. You don't know everything. Yes you can see the accepted offer. Click "original listing" and then "print" about half way down on the next page. $3500. And since when does citing publicly available sales data and asking others to do the same indicate a lack of humility ? -J. Hey Jay...are those books in your sigline yours? Yes the books in every sig line I put together are mine. Why do you keep asking me that ? -J. Because the pictures are not all from the same source. Just wondering. @RMA, I told you already I lift the scans directly from the sale listing whenever I buy a book. If you like I can take a live shot of the group with my camera phone and post it for you. (thumbs u @Blaze, it's a romantic thought but I doubt it. Opinions are too firmly entrenched at this point, regardless of what the most recent publicly available sales data would suggest. -J.

+1 3k is a white paged, well centered 9.4. One sale a trend does not make. ...and here is recent, publicly available sales data that suggests you are mistaken: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Incredible-Hulk-181-CGC-9-4-White-Pages-1st-Wolverine-Full-also-selling-180-/271593526196?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3f3c3c53b4 I understand that some of you may not be able to "accept" what this "common" book actually sells for. However the data is what it is. -J. He accepted an offer that wasn't $3,800? Unless you are the seller, you have no idea what sales price was. I've seen more than 2 9.4's sell on the boards in the last month in the $3,000.00 area. Ask RMA, he was the seller of one of them. And it was a beauty. You would be better served to show a little humility on the boards. You don't know everything. Yes you can see the accepted offer. Click "original listing" and then "print" about half way down on the next page. $3500. And since when does citing publicly available sales data and asking others to do the same indicate a lack of humility ? -J. Hey Jay...are those books in your sigline yours? Yes the books in every sig line I put together are mine. Why do you keep asking me that ? -J.

That means absolutely nothing. What is OS on AF15 in 9.2? Cap #1? Action #1? FF#12? We all know that OS on the hyper keys isn't in line with FMV on graded books. That's been the OP's point since the first post. And hulk 181 is a hyper key. Cerebus 1 is not. -J. I don't think that's been his point. His point was that he thinks that Hulk 181 should be ranked higher than Cerebus #1 (in terms of value). I don't think he ever disputed "key" status. Going back to my post, as I said, we all know that OS values aren't totally in line with what we see a majority of the time (ie, certified HG comics). And it would be silly to think they would. How many of us would line up and take out a second mortgage on our homes if we could buy graded keys at their OS price? You'd make a small fortune quickly if that were possible. But, what OS does give us is an appx value/range of particular, uncertified book. And, from that, we can rank the books. I don't have this years OS but I know that, of the books in my example, Action 1 is the most expensive. Just like in the "real-time auction/online sales" world. Cap 1 will be second, followed by AF15, then FF#12 (and then Cerebus 1, and Hulk 181). Nobody is disputing the more popular character. Nobody is disputing the book that is in higher demand. I don't think anyone would dispute which book is more liquid. The thread is about which book should be more valuable in OS. And, right now, OS has it right. You've made some good points. When in doubt go with the rarer book, however, recent Cerebus #1 sales have been uninspiring across the board. I'm not convinced a new Cerebus #1 in 9.2 brought to market would breach $2500. Maybe at this grade it would motivate a higher end collector to pay a steep premium over guide, but there is currently lackluster demand in the more common grades. What we do know is that the Hulk 181 in 9.2 sells above guide consistently. Extremely rare books do not behave the same way as extremely common books in high grade. The rarer the book, the more extreme the difference. This is a basic principle of the market for rare books. I recognize that many of you don't understand that, having spent much time in the market of common books...but that's the way it is. The "rules" go out the window. Look at Action #1. In 9.0 it's $3.2M. In 8.5...one grade difference...it's less than half that, $1.5M. In 8.0, one more grade difference, it's less than 1/3 the record,.at $1M. In 6.0, it's only $327K, 1/10th the record price...only a full grade and a half (VF/NM to Fine) lower. This is all just more hypothesis, supposition and speculation. If you have any publicly available sales data that suggests cerebus 1 is akin to action comics #1 in terms of it valuation tiers, please feel free to post it here. -J. You are literally using the words "hypothesis", "supposition", and "speculation" in direct opposition to their defined meanings. Impressive! Thank you for the grammar lesson. So I "suppose" a person is unable to "speculate" about another person's "hypothesis"? -J.