DC#

"The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior"

"Past performance is not indicative of future performance"

Take your pick.   50/50 shot.   Basically that is probably the general odds on a prediction of any market.    While human behavior, in general, is very very predictable - the exact timing, duration, intensity, etc of that behavior is much less predictable.     

One characteristic of collecting anything that can often override rational metrics, demographic trends, and logic is addiction.   Collecting and the associated quest can be very, very addicting.    I myself have made several very irrational purchases in this market just because the pull was so strong and I wanted it.    Further using myself as an example, I did not get back into collecting until late 2019 (so before the COVID rush) and right now I have no plans to exit.   I have remained a net buyer ever since I came back.    I have an addiction.   At the same time, I do look at these things as an investment - though not an investment I am depending on.   My optimistic view is that I may be close to break-even if I chose to exit in 10 years - which is a loss given the opportunity cost.    

I have stated before that I view these comics as some of the greatest pop art of the 20th century (and by the way - I own no books from the 21st century except a few Free Comic Book Day things I got with my kid).   I enjoy thumbing through the raw ones and staring at my wall of CGC slabs.   I love the quest of capturing high-grade silver and bronze books with amazing covers.    I enjoy spending time on these boards - despite the nastiness that can often crop up.    It all gives me more joy than heartburn for sure.  

I must assume that I am not unique - that there are more "newcomers" that got back into this for more than the financial return.   I have no idea if there are more of us than of the flippers - many who have likely moved on.     But I plan to continue on buying and collecting despite the 50/50 odds.     Maybe there is another "Black Swan" event over the horizon that will either tank or juice the market......can't live your life waiting on the unknowable to become known.   

Here is AF chart through April.    

On 4/30/2024 at 6:53 AM, Neo "The One" said:

I mean, ok.  He could have ben losing money - and that is understandable - but honestly he should have just returned the books.  It seems he was a small operation (I hesitate to say 1 man since he had the NJ location) that got in way over his head.  That is understandable.  What is not ok is stealing - which is what this all boils down to.

Absolutely - my comments were not about letting him off the hook in any way.    More questioning if he ever had the business acumen to make this business work in the first place.    And creating necessary cash flow for such long-duration activities through advance payments can quickly turn into a sort of Ponzi scheme if you aren't actually making any money on completed items.    The next person's advance covering the losses for prior work.  

On 4/29/2024 at 11:07 PM, Pat Thomas said:

I used Mike's services for my Avengers 1 and ASM 1 close to a decade ago due to multiple references from others who had first-hand experience with him. After looking over his work on his website and talking to Mike about the process, I sent him the books with a deposit that was supposed to go toward the final bill. At the time he said he had at least a 6-month lead time before he could even begin on the first book, and that the whole process would take about a year. Payment in full got my Avengers 1 in line, and I left him alone for over a year before deciding to check in. I found out then that he was a year behind, but my book would be up soon. Every 3 months I checked status for about a year until it was finally ready to ship back to me. He still had my ASM1 and I considered asking for him to send it back, but I figured I might as well wait another two years to end up with an ASM1 I was happy with (It was in so much worse shape than #2-forward in my collection and really bothered me). But my experience this time was much worse. I had a lot of going on in my life and didn't really think about my comic most of the time, so I went a year without checking on it. When I did, Mike said he was behind and wouldn't give me a lead time anymore, so I would check on it periodically. This went on for 3 years, but I finally got an email that it was ready. I had him send it to a CGC Stan Lee signing (one of the last ones he did) before it eventually came back to me. It had been in his possession for over 5 years, but I guess I'm lucky I got it back at all. I think it was already starting to come apart back then and he was still trying to do right by people.

I don't know how he could have ever accurately priced out his costs like this - dozens if not hundreds of books in various states over the course of months and years.   He could have been losing money on each and every book from the start

Goldin auction - 4/13/24

I try to use the two blue colors of the CGC label as a way to get a read on which picture or scan is truest to color.    I think the WP/IG copy is reading as brighter because the scan is a bit hotter - you can't even really see the CGC text/icon in the light blue section.   And the OW/W copy (right) may be a slightly darker than true color.    I would bet that in hand they are close to the same.

For me - the sales tax difference would put the OWW/Shortboxed sale at about the same price as the WP/IG copy.    I can't really see the staining on the cover of the WP copy and I think the upper left-hand corner of that copy looks slightly less damaged.   But the OW/W copy has better alignment - there is a bit more roll on the WP when you look at the back (but both have a little bit)

Both look great for a 6.5.   If they were within $200 of the same price all in - I would take the WP given the premium some people are willing to pay for white.  

March results from Swagglehaus' index.     Not to give away the punchline - Silver was down 8% vs Feb, Bronze up 5% and Copper up 8%.    If you look at the charts - the aggregate results seem to indicate that we may be in a sort of "flat-ish" phase.   Just bouncing around in a range.   

This is an unanswerable hypothetical but I will ask the question anyway….

There are currently ten, universal 9.9 copies of ASM 300.   There have been five recorded sales - one each in 2005, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2017. 
 

There are nearly 1,600 copies of this book in 9.8 (out of 29k+ total books).   It has traded hands around 100 times a year for past 8 years or so and is still selling for around $3k give or take a few hundred on either side.   
 

If the ten copies in 9.9 did not exist, would the value of the 9.8s be different?    If yes - how much of a discount do you think 9.8s are selling for because of the 9.9s?   If  no - how many copies in 9.9 would it take to alter the price trajectory of 9.8s? 

Again - this is all unknowable but I would love to hear people’s thoughts   

On 4/6/2024 at 5:44 PM, Tom789 said:

I suspect they have a tolerance for declaring a miswrap.  You can't just say zero or nothing would be above a 9.8.  Based on the ToD example, 2mm perhaps?

Seems logical.   Maybe in future editions of the book they will actually state the numerical criteria like they do with spine splits, etc.  

On 4/6/2024 at 7:06 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I think you're missing a zero on the 2022 average for the AF15 - 7.5 

As always, thank you for putting this together. 

Oops.   Thanks.  Will fix it later 

On 4/5/2024 at 1:55 PM, LDarkseid1 said:

Then you answered the question for me. They didn't consider it a miswrap.

apparently they don’t.   But by the definition from the man himself it would sure seem like a miswrap.    And in the case below. - not even a straight/uniform miswrap is required
 

On 4/3/2024 at 3:49 PM, Math Teacher said:

I definitely have an account with them. I will have to email them to find out what I need to do to start receiving these catalogs. Thank you!

I receive all the Heritage catalogs too as well as their annual recap book covering all their auction categories.   Definitely comic book porn      Great reference material if you want high quality images of rare or special books.   Or if you just want to fantasize…..

 I am a frequent buyer on Heritage - not sure if there is some threshold of activity they look for to be on the list.  

On 3/28/2024 at 3:06 PM, LDarkseid1 said:

I mean they make it pretty clear 9.9's can have a slight miswrap, allowing for a very minor manufacturing defect, which is what that is. Hence the reason there's 10.0's. So not sure what the issue is. 9.9's allow it, 10.0's don't. Now if you see a 10.0 with that or any manufacturing defect, then we have a problem and a misgrade.

 

Actually -  in the CGC Guide to Grading Comics by Matt - they do state that miswraps peak at 9.8 

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/10586/cgc-guide-grading-comics-nelson/

And found out via YouTube about this "make an offer" sale on Heritage for Marvel Spotlight #5 9.8 at $360k.    It is the same copy that sold for previous record of $264K in 2021.

Running recap of April Heritage results 

They made the scale so it’s whatever they say it is - but does seem odd to call a book MINT if it has anything less than a perfect wrap.  There is a bronze Batman 9.9 for sale close by with a mis-wrap -  a Mint should not have such obvious visual issues 

On 3/28/2024 at 9:44 AM, Motor City Rob said:

Agree with everything you've said. There are many examples of Silver Age, Golden Age, Pre Code Horror books that have received a 9.9, and we could argue the age of those books would make it just as difficult, if not more, to get a 9.9. Where was the outrage when each of those popped up? The only thing odd about this GSX1 is the timing being so close to the 9.9 pre-screen announcement. Having a discussion about the book is good, but the hatred and bashing of CGC and big-time dealers is just unnecessary drama and ridiculous. 

My very unprofessional opinion - no particular order

- For modern books - 9.9/10 probably need to be the "goal" in terms of collectors looking for rarity.    9.8 is just too common.   And this probably applies to a lot of late Copper stuff too (NM 98).     So I don't mind the idea that the category of Mint books expands to some larger ratio - top 1%?    Ultimate Fallout 4 has 16,251 Universal copies with 4,249 9.8s - that is 26% of books at 9.8.    1% of that 16k as 9.9 would give you 162 - where there are none currently.   That starts to put the 9.9 in the same rarity range as 9.8 copies of IH181, ASM 129, etc etc.    But still a lot more common than really high grade early silver and gold.  

- For really valuable Silver or Bronze 9.8s where the price gap between 9.8 and 9.6 is very, very large - not sure how many people will take the chance.    Very often discussed that the difference between a 9.6 and 9.8 can often feel as if it was determined by the direction of the wind that given day.   So I am skeptical that we will see the IH181 9.9 population jump from 1 to 10 anytime soon or if ever.   And yes, there are always high-grade, un-graded copies out there but the 14k Universal copies of 181 thus far have 9.8 return rate of 1% (Would be interesting to see how that return rate has changed over time).    Doesn't feel like they are adding 20 new 9.8s for every 2k copies graded.     Now, if you are sitting on a really attractive non-key Silver issue in 9.8 - maybe you take a swing and get a 1 of 1 9.9.     That could open up a whole different market of collecting.   

So - I am not overly concerned that this one GSX book is a sign of a sea change.    But I do expect to see growth of 9.9s in Moderns - but even that will take time to become the new 9.8 

Apologies if this has been reported already here.     
 

On 3/19/2024 at 6:37 PM, bc said:

So, you're saying the auction house was the big winner.

-bc

I think the saying goes "the house always wins".  

On 3/19/2024 at 6:21 PM, bc said:

One for the 7 figure club

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/1034818

-bc

 

And up a bit from last sold.....

Detective Comics #27 6.5 - $1.74M May 2022 (Goldin)

On 3/12/2024 at 9:32 AM, LowGradeBronze said:

This is often debated with various reference sources being quoted to back up one person's view or another's. Personally I can't help feeling that with the price increase to 15c we entered Bronze territory. Think of Conan the Barbarian #1, now that's a Bronze book (to my mind,) if ever there was one! 

Good point.   I think that book was Oct 1970.     Probably won't get kicked out of either forum if you were to call any books in that 18 month window from mid-69 to early 1971 as one or the other.   

On 3/11/2024 at 2:18 PM, LowGradeBronze said:

I'd say the SA stopped at number 74, the last 12c issue of July 1969.

It’s really an interesting question.   Issue 80 was published Jan 1970 which is typically considered first Bronze year.    I may be cheating but I like to think all ASM are Silver up to the switch to the picture frame covers with #102.    I just can’t make myself think that the iconic vertical price box and art for the 12c and 15c issues are anything other than Silver