DC#

Running tally from the 12/11 Heritage Signature Auction Cap #1 at $194k. A Cap #3 in 8.0 got really close at $90k. Fun Comics #52 - $264k

Small Heritage auction last night.....IH 181 9.8 fell short of recent sales at $90k. At least two books over $100k already on the Sunday Heritage - Cap #1 and Fun Comics #52.

Take

Two more from ComicLink's Nov/Dec Featured Auction.

The book that started this conversation just closed on ComicLink for $63.5k…..which won’t end up in the GPA data.

There is whole other thread on this one. This result seemed "out of the norm" because it was a time payment that started in May and finished in November. GPA has moved the sale to May in their data now. And this same book is currently for sale in the December ComicLink auction.

claim the below per DM 215 204/205 202 201 199 198 186 179 174/175 163/164 157 145 annual 19/20

It is also possible that a percentage of people that joined the comic market (not going to say hobby because it may not accurately describe everyone) in the past 3-4 years may simply depart and not return if they become soured by losses they take. Easy to love/enjoy the market when the feeling of irrational exuberance has a hold of you and everything is going up and up and you almost can’t make a bad decision when deciding what to buy. not quite sure if it is bad or good if they depart……

I know there is always talk of high net-worth individuals for whom spending $1M on a comic book, card, or NFT is nothing and thus they are less likely to care about even paper losses on investments like these. My experience has been that those individuals have become high net-worth individuals precisely because they do care. They do keep score, they do track, and they care if they purchased an asset at twice its current FMV. It is probably cliche to think about newly minted millionaires/billionaires, be they bitcoin beneficiaries or whatever, as a bit more carefree with their money (basically read the sad tales of many lottery winners) but in general the harder the money is to come by the more care people tend to give it. There was an earlier comment that an AF 15 in a 8.5 grade was hard to come by which is true. But $600k is also hard to come by.

Building off some of the prior comments - here are some contextual results for some of the six figure titles from this week's Heritage Auction. Superman #1 2.0 - $264k. May 2022 (Goldin) Superman #1 1.8 - $188k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Superman #1 1.5 - $198.6k June 2022 (Heritage). Marvel Comics #1 3.0 - $232.2k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Marvel Comics #1 2.5 - $364k Mar 2022. Amazing Fantasy #15 8.5 – $707k Sept 2021. Previous $155k in 2017 Amazing Fantasy #15 8.5 - $552k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Amazing Fantasy #15 8.0 - $520k Mar 2022. Amazing Fantasy #15 8.0 - $450k May 2022 (Goldin) Amazing Fantasy $15 8.0 - $448.5k June 2022 (ComicConnect) Spider-man #1 9.0 - $196.1k Sept 2022 (comicconnect) Spider-Man #1 9.0 (Bethlehem Pedigree) - $120k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Fantastic Four #1 9.0 - $420k June 2022 (Heritage) Fantastic Four #1 9.0 - $288k July 2022 (Heritage) Fantastic Four #1 9.0 - $234 Nov 2022 (Heritage) X-Men #1 9.0 - $185k Dec 2021. X-Men #1 9.0 = $156k Aug 2022 (Heritage) X-Men #1 9.0 - $107.1k Aug 2022 (Clink) X-Men #1 9.0 - $114k Nov 2022 (Heritage) X-Men #1 8.5 - $132k March 2022. X-Men #1 8.5 - $121.2k. May 2022 (Goldin) Daredevil #1 9.6 - $150K Apr 2021. Daredevil #1 9.6 - $111k Sept 2022 (Heritage) Daredevil #1 9.6 - $110.5 Sept 2022 (ComicConnect) Daredevil #1 9.6 - $90k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Tales of Suspense #39 9.2 - $144k Sept 2021. Tales of Suspense #39 9.2 - $226.1k. May 2022. (Pedigree) Tales of Suspense #39 9.2 - $130k Aug 2022 (Clink) Tales of Suspense #39 9.2 - $168k Nov 2022 (Heritage) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $192k (Goldin) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $192k (Heritage) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $186k Sept 2022 (Heritage) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles #1 9.8 - $156k Nov 2022 (Heritage)

From the Nov 17th 2022 Heritage Auction......13 over $100k with 4 that got close..... Amazing Spider-Man #1 9.6 - $336K Amazing Spider-Man #1 9.0 (Bethlehem Pedigree) - $120k Amazing Fantasy #15 8.5 - $552k Captain America #1 9,2 Conserved (Larson Ped) - $276k Detective #168 9.4 - $324k Fantastic Four #1 9.0 - $234k Fantastic Four #1 8.0 - $120k Fantastic Four #49 9.8 - $192k Marvel Comics #1 3.0 - $232.2k Superman #1 1.8 - $188k TMNT #1 9.8 - $156k X-Men #1 9.0 - $114k Tales of Suspense #39 9.2k - $168k Some close ones.... Amazing Spider-man #50 9.8 - $99k Daredevil #1 9.6 - $90k Incredible Hulk #1 9.8 - $90k Incredible Hulk #1 9.8 - $96k

Expect to add over a dozen books starting tomorrow from the Heritage auction…..

MyComicShot just sold a 5.5 copy of AF #15 for $114k. Strong result

Building off the comments that auctions were not always the determination of FMV - and noting that there are still lots of sales both public and private that don't end up in GPA - at least the relative abundance and frequency of online sales, be they auction or BIN, provide a large enough sample and velocity of sales that one can feel pretty confident of where a book is sitting if making an offer online, at a LCS, or a show. What I am seeing is more and more of a disconnect between BIN pricing on places like Clink Exchange, MySlabs, Shortboxed, and Ebay vs what is happening at auction and thus GPA values. Instagram cosignors seem to be doing price checks more and more these days before accepting a book for consignment and even Shortboxed added a feature that is intended to show whether the asking price is good, OK, or high (green, yellow, red). Before the listing goes up on Shortboxed sellers are aware if they are in or out of current FMV range. I pretty much stopped browsing Shortboxed because the prices were just silly and sellers didn't seem to be updating for current conditions. I get that people are selling for different reasons and some people may be posting without a real desire to sell ("I would sell it if I got $X"). But here are some examples (apologies if this is from a forum contributor - no offense intended) - these two landed on Clink Exchange in the last few week - AF 15 3.0 with a BIN price of $65K and $75k. The $65k the ask is 35% higher than the peak sale of this grade (Feb 2022) and 124% higher than the last sale in Oct ($28.8k). The $75k ask is 56% higher than peak and 159% higher than last sale. You can't catch a fish if you don't have a line in the water so asking an above market price is not completely irrational since you may still generate offers that would be attractive to you.....but I don't believe these type of listings are good for the selling platform and over time may reduce the pool of potential buyers shopping the sites. My usage of Shortboxed has definitely gone up with the new FMV designation on listings just because I feel it is preventing really dumb pricing from being published. I am not even sure where you would start a negotiation with the two AF15 sellers.....just living in different worlds. You could probably get a 5.0 for $10k-$20k less than these. And to be fair - all the AF15s listed on Clink Exchange are way out of range for GPA - I was just picking on these two because they are new and the sellers should be aware of current values.

I know....I know.....the deal was just too good. Trust me - I didn't buy it for CVA

It is great that everyone has different tastes and preferences - but I too avoid custom labels and tend to have them re-slabbed for standard universal label if I land one at auction (most often because deal was too good to pass up). Fo me, the CGC slab and universal blue label provide a level of maturity (can’t think of a better word) and elevated stature for the book and the collection. “Hey we have taken this silly childish thing you collect and made it respectable”. Putting another character image on top of a comic book cover that often is showcasing that same character just diminishes that for me….and seems really redundant. Not too mention it is visually disruptive to my display wall….. But to each is own. Hopefully someone will love to own a IH181 with a CVA designation and Wolverine custom label when I decide to upgrade.

Thanks - this sale was noted last week. Since this sale there have been 2 other 9.8s that sold for around $90k.

Not to go back to old topics but somewhat related to the Pedigree conversation given the recent IH 181 9.8 sale. Yet another 9.8 sold on Heritage last night for $90k. So that was $125k on Pedigree, $148k on Clink (Sucha news), $86.4k on Goldin, and $90k on Heritage........all in the past 4 weeks or so.

Here is my Dow 30 updated for October (for those interested in the methodology I have added the original post in the quote below) with updated annual CAGRs. 2022 (Oct to Oct) has been very rough but the CAGRs since 2016 remain very, very healthy (27% total with all ages well above 20%). For October itself.... Silver was down 18% vs Oct 21, down 9% vs July 22 Bronze was down 12% vs Oct 21, down 10% vs July 22 Copper/Modern was down 21% vs Oct 21, down 11% vs July 22 In aggregate down 17% vs Oct 21 and down 10% vs July 22

And some books might not ever re-peak. I look at Eternals #1 9.8 as an example that might not ever reach its nearly $4k peak value again.

Here is the PSA10 profile for 1986 Fleer Jordan rookie. This profile looks hauntingly similar to many comics (though the initial spike on this card was really crazy). Seems to have flattened out with in the past 6 months bouncing around $190k-$210k.

Not that this list is sacred, flawless, and beyond question - but I haven't included those HighGradeComic sales because it is hard to know the final price (they do accept offers) and there is no date/time of sale (I know it says past 90 days but how often is some of this stuff getting updated?). I am not questioning the legitimacy of the site or that a sale happened - but was that 9.0 X-Men a $175k asking price or a sold price? GPA records a $156k sale on 8/4/22 - did HGC sell one for a full $20K more (12%) in that same time window? Possible for sure.....but how to know.

I think the distinction is probably that most books that saw a significant rise in the past several years are now seeing a decline. May not be true for run filling issues of any title or at least of any note - not sure many would notice a $5 book rising to $8 as a trend. Or even a $65 slab that is now $50. As others have noted as well - there seem to be many DC keys that have sort of hung around at the same price level during this boom. In the chart the Detective 405 seems to be an example - not much difference between now and the 2021 average

Here are some ComicLink Oct/Nov Focused Auction Session 1 results. As with the past few auctions - this is probably all I will recap this time. These auctions just go on for sooooo long.

After the auction is over, you literally have to search by title to see all prior sales. At least that all I have been able to uncover. There is no landing page for prior auctions where everything is listed. And if there is no active auction that has comics - you won’t see anything in current auctions. The only active auction right now is their Oct Sports related auction.