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Showcase #4

Started by thedude,

427 posts in this topic

showcase22gr1959

showcase22gr1959

Posted
Posted
To put some perspective on the SC 4 vs. SC 22 debate, consider the folowing comparison.

 

SC 4:

 

--Widely accepted as first SA book, ushering in the modern age of superheroes.

--First appearance of a major DC character.

--Fairly scarce, especially in HG.

123 universal copies

193 total CGC copies

25 6.0 and above

12 8.0 and above

4 9.0 and above.

--Established mega key, has been for years. Few issues added to census in last year. High percentage of existing copies probably slabbed.

--Price flat

--Other Showcase appearances command high prices.

--No movie imminent

--Not being hyped by boardies.

--Collectors not rushing to own a copy.

 

SC 22

 

--Early SA key

--First appearance of a major DC character.

--Not uncommon, but very scarce in high grade

210 universal copies,

268 total CGC copies

37 6.0 and above

9 8.0 and above

2 9.0 and above

--Established key, but a mega key less than a year. Many issues added to census in last year. May be comparatively low percentage of copies slabbed?

--Price has risen sharply.

--Other Showcase appearances not high-priced.

--Movie coming soon.

--Heavily hyped by boardies.

--Collectors desperately trying to get a copy.

 

I think an outside observer would look at these facts and be skeptical that SC 22 will surpass SC 4 in value over the long haul. Many of the factors playing into the rise in SC 22 have hype and speculation written all over them. I'm not saying the book is sitting on a bubble, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it was (HG being the exception).

 

I'll make some predictions.

 

In 10 years there will be 3 times as many universal copies of SC 22 compared to SC 4.

In 10 years there will be more HG (8.0 and above) copies of SC 22 than SC 4.

In 10 years any copy of SC 22 will be significantly less valuable than a similarly graded SC 4, with the possible exception of 9.0 and above if few copies of 22 in those grades surface.

 

But then what do I know. :)

 

 

 

I wonder if the same was being said about AF #15 before and after the first movie when prices jumped?

 

We are seeing a lot of SC #22s coming out of the woodwork now due to the pending movie which skews the submission numbers, but the interesting things is that the vast majority are low grade. I bet that if there were a Flash movie in the works we would see a lot more SC #4s pop up for grading as well. However, I think that there would be more copies of SC #4 available in higher grades since it was considered a key book for a much longer time and therefore looked after.

 

As far as long term values go, unless Flash has a decent movie and sees a big surge in popularity I think that 10 years from now SC #22 will be worth more in the same grade. As Marvel fanboy John (and Roy in another thread) stated, GL has more cross over appeal to the zombies, and as they open their eyes and come to the good side of the force they will be the ones who drive prices up.

 

 

 

 

Okay, I know SC4 has been stagnant for the last five years and SC22 has just exploded the last year, but SC4 is still worth more than SC22 in 6.0 and below. Also, about two to three years ago, I thought maybe a movie of Green Lantern might happen and I was fortunate to accumulate my 4th (6.0 white pager) and 5th (8.5) copies. Who would have known a movie was going to happen and Martin Campbell (Casino Royale) would direct this $150 million dollar GL film. There is a great deal of debate between SC4 and SC22, so the market will eventually dictate the direction of the two books. (thumbs u

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markseifert

markseifert

Posted
Posted

How many people out there are more interested in collecting pieces and wraps of Action 1 than Marvel Comics 1? More collectors would want pieces and wraps of Action 1 because it will be more desirable.

 

I don't disagree, but I think the reason people have been willing to pony up for pages of Action 1 is a raw function of price. If you get a good bounce at a given auction, there's lots of folks on this board who could still hope to snag a low grade Marvel 1. Action 1, not so much -- price of entry for ANY complete copy is what... $75k range these days?

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1koko

1koko

Posted
Posted
I don't disagree, but I think the reason people have been willing to pony up for pages of Action 1 is a raw function of price. If you get a good bounce at a given auction, there's lots of folks on this board who could still hope to snag a low grade Marvel 1. Action 1, not so much -- price of entry for ANY complete copy is what... $75k range these days?

 

unrestored? $85-90k

 

 

Taking the SC4 SC 22 conversation one step further would be to compare Flash #105 v GL #1.

 

How do these compare?

 

Does GL book benefit from being a #1?

 

Looking at the census you have the reverse of the SC4 v SC 22 scenario in that there are more high grade (8.0+) GLs than Flash:

 

GL#1: Total Universal label 281 6.0+ 91

 

9.4 1

9.2 3

9.0 5

8.5 10

8.0 13

7.5 13

7.0 18

6.5 10

6.0 18

 

Flash #105: Total Universal label 152 6.0+ 39

 

9.4 1

9.2 2

9.0 1

8.5 0

8.0 3

7.5 9

7.0 9

6.5 5

6.0 9

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SAGAT

SAGAT

Posted
Posted

Ok I just want to mention that the Flash 105 is a way cooler cover than the puppet on GL#1. Also the fact that currently all 1st issues (Flash 105 included) are way way undervalued in comparison to 1st appearances. This applies to marvel and dc. Unless the year spreads are too far apart ie Jim 83 vs Thor 126 or TOS 39 vs Iron Man 1. But a BB28 vs JLA #1 is accurately priced, however showcase 4 vs flash 105 should be closer in price -same for gl#1 vs showcase 22.

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SAGAT

SAGAT

Posted
Posted

One last note: SC 4 is and always will be worth more than 4 times more than SC22. The Overstreet Guide is the bible and that will not change. We won't see a massive spike in SC22 because it does not deserve one. SC 22 was a dead book for years and it deserves only a small spark of life. It is overpriced as it is.

 

Look at Marv Spotlight 5 it was commanding 3 times guide in high grade during movie hype and it hasn't moved a muscle in the guide and 3 years after the Ghost Rider movie. Now it goes for less than guide in high grade often.

 

SC 22 WILL NOT GO UP DRASTICALLY IF AT ALL.

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Bomber-Bob

Bomber-Bob

Posted
Posted
One last note: SC 4 is and always will be worth more than 4 times more than SC22. The Overstreet Guide is the bible and that will not change. We won't see a massive spike in SC22 because it does not deserve one. SC 22 was a dead book for years and it deserves only a small spark of life. It is overpriced as it is.

 

Look at Marv Spotlight 5 it was commanding 3 times guide in high grade during movie hype and it hasn't moved a muscle in the guide and 3 years after the Ghost Rider movie. Now it goes for less than guide in high grade often.

 

SC 22 WILL NOT GO UP DRASTICALLY IF AT ALL.

 

You're just lobbying to get a cheap copy (lol) ! We saw your WTB post.

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showcase22gr1959

showcase22gr1959

Posted
Posted
One last note: SC 4 is and always will be worth more than 4 times more than SC22. The Overstreet Guide is the bible and that will not change. We won't see a massive spike in SC22 because it does not deserve one. SC 22 was a dead book for years and it deserves only a small spark of life. It is overpriced as it is.

 

Look at Marv Spotlight 5 it was commanding 3 times guide in high grade during movie hype and it hasn't moved a muscle in the guide and 3 years after the Ghost Rider movie. Now it goes for less than guide in high grade often.

 

SC 22 WILL NOT GO UP DRASTICALLY IF AT ALL.

 

You're just lobbying to get a cheap copy (lol) ! We saw your WTB post.

 

I saw that he is lobbying too. I will be loading up more if I can buy SC22 at current guide price. No worries, prices will be supported here at current OSPG prices.

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SAGAT

SAGAT

Posted
Posted

770 for a 4.0 is what the guide says however $1770+ is going rate for that grade and is a G over guide bottom line despite all hype. Doen't matter if I have WTB ad or not. Why would I pay at these prices knowing 3 years later it'll go under guide.

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PUNYHUMAN

PUNYHUMAN

Posted
Posted

Showcase # 22, will definately go up in guide , I believe that. I've owned one for years. great book . But, Showcase # 4 is THE 1 st silver age book "don't own one, yet," more scarce all the way around , ask Steve Fishler in higher grades and then some . # 105 is also a important book . Should be higher then GL # 1 IMO.. Then again these are just my opinions, after collecting some 40 + years,

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showcase22gr1959

showcase22gr1959

Posted
Posted
770 for a 4.0 is what the guide says however $1770+ is going rate for that grade and is a G over guide bottom line despite all hype. Doen't matter if I have WTB ad or not. Why would I pay at these prices knowing 3 years later it'll go under guide.

 

I don't mind adding more to my SC22 positions. Let me know if you have any graded CGC 4.0 copies, I will pay you $1000 and you may profit the $230. you may have to also compete with me and all the other collectors waiting to buy 4.0 at $770.00 now or three years from now.

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kimik

kimik

Posted
Posted
770 for a 4.0 is what the guide says however $1770+ is going rate for that grade and is a G over guide bottom line despite all hype. Doen't matter if I have WTB ad or not. Why would I pay at these prices knowing 3 years later it'll go under guide.

 

That's why I refuse to pay full guide in grade for AF #15, FF #1, Action #1, and Detective #27 - if I wait another 3 years I will be able to land them for under guide. :insane:

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