Economic Slowdown - Any Impact on Golden Age Comics?

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

Anyone care to proffer an opinion in regard to what impact if any an economic slowdown might have on Golden Age Comics prices?

 

In all my years of collecting other than some obvious bubbles in certain trendy areasI have never really seen the market slowdown. Still, when I look at some of the prices being paid for Bronze and Silver Age on ComicLink it makes me wonder.

 

Any economists out there with insight into the resiliancy of the collectibles market in bad times?

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

I actually gave this some more thought this morning and pretty much think that blue chip Golden Age books are going to weather any financial difficulties with ease. I am less sure about the prices being paid for Bronze age books and to a lesser extent Silver Age. It all has to do with the limited supply of rare Golden Age books and their perceived artistic, cultural and social value.

 

Much as original oil paintings offer the prospective purchaser an opportunity to buy a one of a kind piece of art reflecting a certain style, era, and window into a society; Golden Age comics approach something similar. While they are not one of a kind, their rarity (particularly pre-1943 editions) begins to approach something close to unique. Add in condition and you have truly one of a kind specimens at the top end of the condition curve. The paradox is that they were originally available in runs of hundreds of thousands.

 

Where this gets interesting is when one considers the survival rate of Silver and Bronze Age books. Reviews of the CGC census data for each of these ages shows an amazing disparity in the availability of books. Additionally, if you want a certain high grade Bronze Age book it shouldn't take long to find one available to bid on Comic Link or EBay.

 

Consequently, I would suspect we will see little to no movement downward in Golden Age prices but a potential for some opportunities to buy Bronze Age and to a lesser extent Silver Age books at favorable prices during this economic downturn.

[jkrk]

Impact on GA comics?

 

I suspect the answer depends on your macro economic view.

 

Are we in or soon to be in a recession due to a short term economic "shock" resulting from a credit contraction? If that is the case then:

 

a)the GA market will respond similar to the aftermath of 9-11. It will respond similar to the aftermath of LT capital. It will respond sil\milar to the aftermath of the S&L crisis. It will respond similar to the aftermath of the 1987 stock market decline. Did I forget the Asian crisis? In each case the economic hardship was sharp but ended relatively quickly. GA prices were bit soft, some collections were put up for sale, but the weakness never lasted. Instead, each dip turned into a "buying opportunity" as prices renewed their climb once the shock subsided. If this scenario plays out the GA market will get still stronger (with all the new players) and prices will continue to advance.

 

b)The other possibility is that the world has changed. It will take most longer to understand the transition. Under this scenario, credit will become less available and more costly for most for many, many years. Consumers will need to have a greater percentage of the money in hand before they are able to make purchases. Any business relying on credit will struggle to stay above water. Unemployment will rise and cash will become the asset of choice. Collectables should lose value to cash under this scenario as hedging against inflation will not be the goal. The lack of liquidity will cause prices to slide. Having cash in a slow growth environment (where income becomes more difficult to obtain and people's willingness to take risk subsides) is the asset of choice. In a world that has taught everyone that leveraging your assets is the way

to become wealty. Have we all learned the wrong lesson at the wrong time? Under this scenario GA prices are at/near their apex.

 

The scenario you believe will unfold should dictate your answer to the GA question.

 

Jay

[Bronty]

well put

[Aman619]

mixing both together... also factor in if demand wanes across the board, it will be only the best issues that remain in demand. As scarce as a non-key issue may be, buyers will shun them in favor of the books that kept their demand.

[agro23]

Scarcity will always drive the market for Golden Age books.

[batman_fan]

I personally think you are seeing some impact on GA. I have been a little surprised at the amount of quality material available in the marketplace as well as Heritage and Clink. While some prices are quite high, many second tier titles are quite low.

[KreeSkrull99]

I actually gave this some more thought this morning and pretty much think that blue chip Golden Age books are going to weather any financial difficulties with ease. I am less sure about the prices being paid for Bronze age books and to a lesser extent Silver Age. It all has to do with the limited supply of rare Golden Age books and their perceived artistic, cultural and social value.

 

Much as original oil paintings offer the prospective purchaser an opportunity to buy a one of a kind piece of art reflecting a certain style, era, and window into a society; Golden Age comics approach something similar. While they are not one of a kind, their rarity (particularly pre-1943 editions) begins to approach something close to unique. Add in condition and you have truly one of a kind specimens at the top end of the condition curve. The paradox is that they were originally available in runs of hundreds of thousands.

 

Where this gets interesting is when one considers the survival rate of Silver and Bronze Age books. Reviews of the CGC census data for each of these ages shows an amazing disparity in the availability of books. Additionally, if you want a certain high grade Bronze Age book it shouldn't take long to find one available to bid on Comic Link or EBay.

 

Consequently, I would suspect we will see little to no movement downward in Golden Age prices but a potential for some opportunities to buy Bronze Age and to a lesser extent Silver Age books at favorable prices during this economic downturn.

 

Hmmmmmm

 

food for thought

[Aman619]

Scarcity will always drive the market for Golden Age books.

 

yes, I agree. however, scarce and key/important trumps scarce/obscure. I always think that in the grip of the worst of the worst financial climate, the books you will have been happiest to have bought will be the blue chip keys (like a first appearance of a well-known character), not a scarcer (to name one) Jungle Comic in the middle of the run, or a Chesler, or Avon... as cool as they are to collect and cherish.

 

 

Bt if things remain ducky, and the Dow climbs bravely back to 14K, it oughtta be safe enough to buy any darn comic you want, and expect to get (most of) your money out someday.

[buttock]

Impact on GA comics?

 

I suspect the answer depends on your macro economic view.

 

Are we in or soon to be in a recession due to a short term economic "shock" resulting from a credit contraction? If that is the case then:

 

a)the GA market will respond similar to the aftermath of 9-11. It will respond similar to the aftermath of LT capital. It will respond sil\milar to the aftermath of the S&L crisis. It will respond similar to the aftermath of the 1987 stock market decline. Did I forget the Asian crisis? In each case the economic hardship was sharp but ended relatively quickly. GA prices were bit soft, some collections were put up for sale, but the weakness never lasted. Instead, each dip turned into a "buying opportunity" as prices renewed their climb once the shock subsided. If this scenario plays out the GA market will get still stronger (with all the new players) and prices will continue to advance.

 

b)The other possibility is that the world has changed. It will take most longer to understand the transition. Under this scenario, credit will become less available and more costly for most for many, many years. Consumers will need to have a greater percentage of the money in hand before they are able to make purchases. Any business relying on credit will struggle to stay above water. Unemployment will rise and cash will become the asset of choice. Collectables should lose value to cash under this scenario as hedging against inflation will not be the goal. The lack of liquidity will cause prices to slide. Having cash in a slow growth environment (where income becomes more difficult to obtain and people's willingness to take risk subsides) is the asset of choice. In a world that has taught everyone that leveraging your assets is the way

to become wealty. Have we all learned the wrong lesson at the wrong time? Under this scenario GA prices are at/near their apex.

 

The scenario you believe will unfold should dictate your answer to the GA question.

 

Jay

 

So I'm not well versed in economics, but what you say makes me wonder if the following happens (and I'd like to hear others' thoughts).

1) recession sets in - the lower/middle classes are stressed

2) the assets (in this case GA books) in those classes are made available

3) the "recession proof" (i.e. the well-off) see more availability of what they want due to the lower classes releasing.

4) big money is now fighting over more and/or better product, and prices actually look stronger during the recession.

 

 

 

And to answer the original posters' question, I think that some GA (true "blue chip" - i.e. early Actions, Detectives, Superman, Batman, Captain America) is always going to be valuable. 2nd tier and lower characters may not hold on as well. This would follow what happened in other collectibles markets (stamps come to mind).

[Silver Surfer]

I noticed a bit of a slow down as I've seen a lot of high in demand GA issues sit for much longer than they would have a year ago. I just saw a Thor #193 CGC 9.2 that I was tracking with a $20 bid sell for only $29. Now thats a book that always gets lots of attention but I think there was only two bidders (myself included).

[KreeSkrull99]

I actually gave this some more thought this morning and pretty much think that blue chip Golden Age books are going to weather any financial difficulties with ease.

 

Much as original oil paintings offer the prospective purchaser an opportunity to buy a one of a kind piece of art reflecting a certain style, era, and window into a society; Golden Age comics approach something similar. While they are not one of a kind, their rarity (particularly pre-1943 editions) begins to approach something close to unique..

 

 

True enough

 

Collectibles may be a real nice asset into this economic downturn

[sfcityduck]

I popped over here to see what folks were thinking on this topic.

 

I have been wondering whether the GA comic book market might be more sensitive to an economic downturn. Based on my limited information it seems that GA collectors as a group are on the older end of the scale, which is understandable given that a lot of these folks got into collecting in the 60s and 70s. Consequently, they are more likely to be headed to retirement and thus more likely to want to liquidate their collections for cash should they feel an economic need.

 

It also appears that the GA market would be more sensitive to changes in supply and demand given the relative scarcity of books and the relative small size of the market.

 

Still, I assume that it is far too early for anyone to be feeling any real effects from the recent stock market cratering, given that we're still in the midst of this mess.

 

 

[skybolt]

I popped over here to see what folks were thinking on this topic.

 

I have been wondering whether the GA comic book market might be more sensitive to an economic downturn. Based on my limited information it seems that GA collectors as a group are on the older end of the scale, which is understandable given that a lot of these folks got into collecting in the 60s and 70s. Consequently, they are more likely to be headed to retirement and thus more likely to want to liquidate their collections for cash should they feel an economic need.

 

It also appears that the GA market would be more sensitive to changes in supply and demand given the relative scarcity of books and the relative small size of the market.

 

Still, I assume that it is far too early for anyone to be feeling any real effects from the recent stock market cratering, given that we're still in the midst of this mess.

 

 

Actually, a majority of the GA collectors on these boards are in their 30's and 40's.

[sfcityduck]

But what age the guys who own most of the GA comics? The GA collectors I know who have the really good stuff are on the older side.

[VintageComics]

There have been a few polls recently and most were in the 35 year range.

 

R.

 

[MrBedrock]

The GA collectors I know who have the really good stuff are on the older side.

[precodekeith]

There have been a few polls recently and most were in the 35 year range.

 

R.

 

I honestly feel what you are saying (I'm 37), but does everyone really think that this board represents the majority of GA collectors??

 

In my experience, most GA collectors don't even buy slabs!

 

Again, just my

 

 

 

 

[innocuous]

Agreed. How many other Bangzooms' are there in this world. (Well, no one can come close to BZ's collection, but maybe mini-BZs.)

[Socratic Wonder]

The GA collectors I know who have the really good stuff are on the older side.