mrlatko Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 No sarcasm intended. I'm not disputing that this would be a great long term investment to drop a couple thousand on a nice copy. Undervalued and great potential for explosion over the next 10 years, yes. I'm disputing the timing of doing so. Showcase #22 is going to be in great demand until the movie comes and goes and you are going to be paying hundreds more due to supply/demand and price gouging than you will if you just hold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjum12 Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 No sarcasm intended. I'm not disputing that this would be a great long term investment to drop a couple thousand on a nice copy. Undervalued and great potential for explosion over the next 10 years, yes. I'm disputing the timing of doing so. Showcase #22 is going to be in great demand until the movie comes and goes and you are going to be paying hundreds more due to supply/demand and price gouging than you will if you just hold off. The Showcae 22 market will probably be similar to TOS 39....it was way cheap before the movie, and the prices did drop slightly after the movie...I just don't thnk Showcase 22 has peaked. Current levels may double before that happens...especially in fine and above. GOD BLESS... -jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 Based on the Marvel key experience, I don't think Showcase #22 will drop back to 2008 or early 2009 prices once the movie hype dies down. Most of the Marvel keys ran up, pulled back a bit and then plateaued, but they did not pull back to anywhere near the pre-movie run up prices. Look at X-Men #1. I can remember buying nice VG to VG/FN copies for $500 before the first movie was a (relatively speaking) success. Same thing with ASM #1/AF #15, FF #1, and TOS #39. These books ran up and even if they dropped it is still well above pre-hype levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrlatko Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Guys, find me a 4.0 - 5.0 around GPA and I'm joining this club. I still don't think we'll find that book though until after the movie is a memory. As cool a character as GL is, I also don't believe those Marvel stats you listed will necessarily apply to him and this book. This could also be a case like JimJum mentioned that overpaying now will still pay off in the long run, since the book is undervalued in OSPG and can only go up. Very interesting to speculate on this book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 (edited) I think that TOS #39 and even the SA X-Men #1 (along with Avengers #1 and JIM #83) are good comparables for Showcase #22. TOS #39 was a 2nd tier Marvel SA key with lower demand until the movie. Same thing for X-Men #1. Avengers #1 and JIM #83 did not really jump until the movie hype hit earlier this year. All of these books are 2nd tier Marvels that did not move up that much until their movies were confirmed (or in the case of Avengers #1 hinted at in the recent Hulk and Iron Man flicks). Even when AF #15 and FF #1 took their first big jump a few years back these books did not take off in the same way. Showcase #22 fits this bill as well. The two other things it has going for it right now are 1) SA DC keys are undervalued right now and 2) GL is probably the best comic being published now thanks to the outstanding writing and artwork (I know a lot of Marvel fanboys who have added it to their files now). The other big factor is the limited supply of this book in even strict 4.0 (the best of all of the copies I saw at the SDCC other than Rick's was 3.0 or maybe 3.5 at best), let alone higher grades. This is not a recent issue either. Ask any dealer you know when the last time was that they saw a Showcase #22 in FN (or VF if you want to have them scratching their heads). FWIW, I will happily pay $1 above GPA for a 5.5 or better copy right now. Edited July 30, 2009 by kimik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dikran Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 FWIW, I will happily pay $1 above GPA for a 5.5 or better copy right now. I might even go 2$ above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tth2 Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 (edited) TOS #39 was a 2nd tier Marvel SA key with lower demand until the movie. It still is. Same thing for X-Men #1. X-Men #1 has been a 1st tier Marvel SA key with high demand ever since the New X-Men put the team back on the map! A 9.4 copy was going for north of $40K in 2002/2003, 9.6 was either breaking or getting close to $100K. Way out in front of true 2nd tier keys like TOS 39, Avengers 1 and even JIM 83 (which had the whole perceived scarcity thing going for it) at the time. Avengers #1 and JIM #83 did not really jump until the movie hype hit earlier this year. All of these books are 2nd tier Marvels that did not move up that much until their movies were confirmed (or in the case of Avengers #1 hinted at in the recent Hulk and Iron Man flicks). Even when AF #15 and FF #1 took their first big jump a few years back these books did not take off in the same way. Where are you getting this from? Avengers #1, I agree with you. I remember the 9.4 copy that sat with no takers for a while. While JIM #83 may have been a slow key 15-20 years ago, it has been hot for ages now, particularly when early JIM prices started surging around 2003, which had nothing to do with a Thor movie. Edited July 30, 2009 by tth2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 for folks at home keeping score, and since GPA doesn't always tell the story, here are 7 sales of SC 22 I have made in the past month, first sold to last sold cgc 4.0 cr/ow...$1000 (NC) cgc 4.0 cr/ow...$1000 (boards) cgc 4.0 cr/ow...$1100 (SDCC) cgc 5.0 cr/ow...$1250 (NC) cgc 5.0 cr/ow...$1200 (boards) cgc 5.0 cr/ow...$1250 (SDCC) cgc 5.0 cr/ow...$1350 (SDCC) cgc 5.0 ow.......$1500 (SDCC) I currently have made a $12,500 offer for an unrestored 8.0 that has been declined (private offer) I currently have a 3.5 possibly 4.0 on the way to cgc I currently have a 5.0 possibly 5.5 on the way to cgc... and I don't even think the prices have started to really rise yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrlatko Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Tec27, Thanks for the perspective from someone who is actively selling multiples of this book as we speak. GPA has 4.0 - 5.0 copies going from between $550 - $1000 since '07, so in reality, the low end has already practically doubled and the high end about half as much ($1500 in your OW 5.0 case). Looks like smart money buys the higher end 5.0 - 6.0 of this book now while it is still affordable and before it inevitably price corrects upwards. It'll cost you more to join this club on the low end than it normally would as demand for an entry level attractive 4.0 copy outmatches supply due to movie hype. Of course, I still contend that the 4.0s will come back to their pre-movie-hype prices after the film is a memory. Time will tell us that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 I am basing the X-Men #1 and JIM #83 comments on what I have seen for the mid to low grade prices over the past 5 years or so. These are a better reflection of collector interest IMHO since the average collector can still afford them. Not all of us are fortunate enough to play in the high end like some board members. As far as X-Men #1, the first movie came out in 2000 and the second one was on the way (released in 2003). You could still pick up FN copies of X-Men #1 for less than a grand before the 2000 movie was released. And, looking at GPA, 6.0 copies ranged from $1,380 to $1,950 in 2003. The big jump in this grade actually happened last year according to GPA, with the price going from a high of $2,390 in 2007 to $3,761 in 2008. Yes, in high grade JIMs took off due to the perceived scarcity, but I would argue that the prices on JIM #83 in 6.0 or lower did not until after the movie was announced. Looking at GPA, the 2007 average for a 6.0 was $2313, and in 2008 it was $2881. The current 12 month average is $4229, with the most recent price being a copy that sold this month for $5205. Going back further, the highs for 6.0 copies recorded by GPA were: 2003 - $1503 2004 - $2225 2005 - $2005 2006 - $2151 2007 - $3250 2008 - $3300 2009 - $5205 When you look at their average price chart, it shows steady growth until a sharp upturn in mid-2008. Even in 9.0 the slabbed prices for JIM #83 did not take off until 2007 or so. 2009 - $27,800 (1 sale) 2007 - $19,120 high, $15,558 low (3 sales) 2006 - $11,500 high (1 sale) 2003 - $13,000 high (1 sale) 2002 - $13,225 high (1 sale) Looking at these trends, 2005/2006 would have been a good time to buy key SA Marvels if you missed the boat in the mid/late 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 30, 2009 Author Share Posted July 30, 2009 Tec27, Thanks for the perspective from someone who is actively selling multiples of this book as we speak. GPA has 4.0 - 5.0 copies going from between $550 - $1000 since '07, so in reality, the low end has already practically doubled and the high end about half as much ($1500 in your OW 5.0 case). Looks like smart money buys the higher end 5.0 - 6.0 of this book now while it is still affordable and before it inevitably price corrects upwards. It'll cost you more to join this club on the low end than it normally would as demand for an entry level attractive 4.0 copy outmatches supply due to movie hype. Of course, I still contend that the 4.0s will come back to their pre-movie-hype prices after the film is a memory. Time will tell us that I suppose. I think anything 4.0 or higher is the grade to focus on. If you look at the dealer websites, there are a lot of books in 3.5 or lower condition, but slim pickings (if there are any at all) in 4.0 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Tec27, Thanks for the perspective from someone who is actively selling multiples of this book as we speak. GPA has 4.0 - 5.0 copies going from between $550 - $1000 since '07, so in reality, the low end has already practically doubled and the high end about half as much ($1500 in your OW 5.0 case). Looks like smart money buys the higher end 5.0 - 6.0 of this book now while it is still affordable and before it inevitably price corrects upwards. It'll cost you more to join this club on the low end than it normally would as demand for an entry level attractive 4.0 copy outmatches supply due to movie hype. Of course, I still contend that the 4.0s will come back to their pre-movie-hype prices after the film is a memory. Time will tell us that I suppose. I think anything 4.0 or higher is the grade to focus on. If you look at the dealer websites, there are a lot of books in 3.5 or lower condition, but slim pickings (if there are any at all) in 4.0 or higher. that has been my experience too (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comicopolis Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Low grade but complete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Welcome to the club! (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Tec27, Thanks for the perspective from someone who is actively selling multiples of this book as we speak. GPA has 4.0 - 5.0 copies going from between $550 - $1000 since '07, so in reality, the low end has already practically doubled and the high end about half as much ($1500 in your OW 5.0 case). Looks like smart money buys the higher end 5.0 - 6.0 of this book now while it is still affordable and before it inevitably price corrects upwards. It'll cost you more to join this club on the low end than it normally would as demand for an entry level attractive 4.0 copy outmatches supply due to movie hype. Of course, I still contend that the 4.0s will come back to their pre-movie-hype prices after the film is a memory. Time will tell us that I suppose. I think anything 4.0 or higher is the grade to focus on. If you look at the dealer websites, there are a lot of books in 3.5 or lower condition, but slim pickings (if there are any at all) in 4.0 or higher. that has been my experience too (thumbs u And, it has been this way for a while now. I have been looking since last summer for a 6.0 - 7.0 copy and have been shut out. Granted, I might have missed a copy or two over that time, but nonetheless there is a lack of 5.5 and better copies on the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjum12 Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 There's a raw copy in eBAY stores listed as 6.0 but probably a little less. It may be gone now , it was 1100 if I remember.GOD BLESS... -jimbo(a froiend of jesus) (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Looks like it is gone. How recent was the listing? I can't find it in the completed listings. At that price it was a decent deal if the book is at least a 5.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimik Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 There is another copy that the seller has listed as a VG+ that is currently at $785. Looking at the amount of tape residue/staining on the back, I think the grade is a bit generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rommin Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Low grade but complete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnT Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Sounds like prices have at least doubled in the last couple of years. Glad I got in the club when I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
