Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[FlyingDonut]

Every now and then I listen to Rush for entertainment. I can't listen to Rush for politics because he is often:

 

1) simply wrong

2) absolutely refuses to listen to the other side of an issue (Iraq is a good example)

and 3) for the longest time his answer for everything was "Clinton is a scumbag."

 

 

[FlyingDonut]

Remember the Maine!

[ArAich]

. If and when the US invades Iraq it will be the only the second time in our that it attacked another country without being attacked first.

 

I will only respond to this and only this in the simplest terms .

We were attacked. On 9/11!!!

[FlyingDonut]

We were attacked. On 9/11!!!

 

... by Al-Qaeda. We went in to Afghanistan and rooted them out, in a very effective way (although it would be nice to have gotten Osama...), and have done serious damage to the Al-Qaeda network of terror around the world.

 

The stretch is whether or not Iraq had anything do to with it - there's a strong argument to be made that the Saudis had just as much to do with it as Saddam and his henchmen. All I'm saying is that we need to have a plan as to what do to afterwards.

[snizzenfixit]

We were attacked. On 9/11

 

Just so I am clear. You believe we were attacked on 911 by Iraq? I am not saying we were or we weren't I am just curious if that is your theory.

 

Phil

 

 

[ArAich]

 

Phil.

I said I would not respond further on this subject but it seems I will probalby get sucked into this debate.

9/11 might not have been orchastrated by Iraq but the attack on our soil embroiled us into a war on terrorism. Iraq has been directly linked to terrorism, as have other countries. The war we are waging will be fought one logical and strategic step at a time in order to prevail.

[FlyingDonut]

well, as long as there's a plan

[delekkerste]

Del, I thought I'd made it clear that I understood your points on these topics. There were "off the table", as it were. Did you give that answer because you don't have any practical thoughts about dealing with post-crash selling? Or did you just want to repeat yourself again and thought this was a good opportunity?

 

Joanna, yes, your response was both very "snippy" (as you put it) and quite patronizing. Each Forum member, including myself, will decide when something is "on the table" or "off the table". You can agree or disagree with what I have to say, but you do not have any right to dictate what I can or can't say.

 

My response to you was that there is no blanket answer and that it depends on each person's individual situation and that's the bottom line. People will have to decide for themselves what is best for them. As Odin88 quite rightly put it, comics are paid for out of discretionary funds. There are numerous external shocks (such as a war with Iraq) that could disrupt that flow of funds to the market. Any dealer who is depending on a continued rise in comic book prices (both CGC and, to a lesser extent, raw, in ALL segments of the market) and any collector looking to buy either now or as prices come down, should be aware of the multitude of risks out there.

 

If that is still not clear enough for you, let me distill it down into some quick soundbites:

 

Collectors: Buy as little as possible, most books will be cheaper in 3-5 years.

 

Speculators: To see your future, study a little history regarding commodity, collectible and stock market booms and busts. Everybody thinks they can make bank and get out at the top, but at some point, the greatest fool is YOU.

 

Dealers: Better to sell now than later, before it becomes obvious to everyone that prices are deflating. Don't tie up your working capital in depreciating inventory. Cut as much out of your fixed cost base as possible. Run your business as lean and mean as possible. Consider selling your business outright or taking on partners to achieve cost and/or distribution synergies.

 

If you are AndrewKnight, why become a comic dealer? If I was a young, smart, entrepreneurial guy like you, I would think there are much more lucrative and interesting venues for you to pursue. As a rule of thumb, the retail business is extremely hard work and vulnerable to numerous uncontrollable variables. If it were so lucrative and rewarding, I don't think Blazing Bob would be the crabby S.O.B. he is today!

 

Gene

[Illiterati-migration]

9/11 might not have been orchastrated by Iraq but the attack on our soil embroiled us into a war on terrorism. Iraq has been directly linked to terrorism, as have other countries.

 

Yeah, and funny that WE are directly linked to the terrorist attack on our OWN country... or has everyone already forgotten that we gave Osama guns and money back in the 80s? He's just biting the hand that fed him. Biiiig shocker there.

[hammer-migration]

Flying D . - We didnt root out anything in Afghanistan other than some isolated pockets of Rebels , anymore than American Troops thinking the War was being won until the Labryinths under the ground itslef in Vietnam were discovered . The network of terrorism , whether Al -Qaeda or whatever other anti-US dark forces their enjoined with is tunneled deeply throughout the entire world and is part of the economic world structure with legitimate & illegimate interests aside from the terrorist activities (some of these guys are billionaires ! ) & US restraind political decorum - strongarm tacticts prevent us from dealing with them in the proper manner in the same manner that restraint bound us from finishing Sadam , the first time he was on the ropes - over a decade ago . More important than the plan itself - we need to committ to the plan to conclusion ( whatever the solution is incorporated into the plan ) & have the testicular fortitude to carry it through . No more doves . Everytime we release the doves - they walk back with one busted wing .

[Joanna]

Del,

 

Each Forum member, including myself, will decide when something is "on the table" or "off the table". You can agree or disagree with what I have to say, but you do not have any right to dictate what I can or can't say.

 

Of course I can't dictate it, but I can certainly recognize when a question asked isn't answered. The "off the table" was part of that question, i.e. I wasn't asking for a general reiteration of positions already stated, I wanted a specific thought on a specific subject. Your first answer was very frustrating because you appeared to be answering me (my name was in the reply) but it didn't address anything I said. It was just a diatribe against other board members. This is how it felt:

 

Joanna: "What practical advice do you have?"

Del: "I hate this guy, this guy, this guy, and the following people are really stupid..."

 

That said, your second answer was a direct response and I thank you sincerely for writing it. This is exactly what I was looking for. I wanted to know your views on a practical response to the crash. You gave it to me, and I found it interesting. Thank you.

 

-- Joanna

[Gorgo]

Collectors: Buy as little as possible, most books will be cheaper in 3-5 years.

 

As one of CGC's first customers, the early material I'm now buying slabbed is only a fraction of what it was when I passed on them back in 2000. This statement is already ringing true & observations would indicate that we may get to a point where near guide prices will be the norm on NM slabbed material. Other titles are now seeing the light of day & I'm glad I had some of these titles slabbed (i.e. early Avengers).

 

Complements on a well written post.

[FlyingDonut]

well, I did sell the first CGC book EVER on eBay - Fantastic Four 1 VG 5.0...my little claim to fame. Bought by Metropolis.

[delekkerste]

That said, your second answer was a direct response and I thank you sincerely for writing it. This is exactly what I was looking for. I wanted to know your views on a practical response to the crash. You gave it to me, and I found it interesting. Thank you.

 

OK, Joanna, that's fair enough. Let's call things even.

 

I personally enjoy your posts for the most part and really don't want to quarrel with you...not when there are much more inviting and deserving targets for my scorn out there.

 

Gene

[clobberintime]

I happen to like crabby old bob just the way he is. Perhaps if you had chosen a different profession than resident comic book sage, you wouldn't be the smarty pants smarmy know it all you are today. When you get about 10 years or 20 years older have some more real life experiences maybe you could come back and give us all some really great advice but until then why don't you tune done your smug bologna.

[delekkerste]

Complements on a well written post.

 

Thanks, Gorgo. I wasn't sure from your last post directed to me whether you were being sarcastic or not (I gather from this post that you were not!)

 

I think people like you and me who have seen the market evolve from 2000 to the present are more open to accepting that the bubble phase is ending and that prices, for the most part, are coming down big-time. I remember in 2000 when just about any Modern CGC 9.2 was dynamite...last week, I saw a CGC 9.9 Official Handbook of the Marvel Universe #15 fail to attract a bid at $19 (no reserve). There was a time when that would have been a sure 3-figure book.

 

The times have sure changed a lot. If I could do it over again, I would have been more patient and more selective in my buying. As it stands, though, my 2002 purchases are running about 50% below my 2001 level and my buying the last 6 months has all but dried up (whatever I have bought has been financed by sales), which I think is both prudent and entirely consistent with my message.

 

Gene

[clobberintime]

Yeah and don't forget all the conspiracies with the big guys that get those awesome grades and preferential treatment by cgc. Yep i can absolutely say for certain the crash is underway as i have reviewed cgc prices on ebay for the last 6 months, they are definitely lower and therefore the whole thing is in the can! As easy as A = B and A= C and therefore B must equal C. Just that simple. What I can't figure out is all the cluckers around here are apparently still buying cgc comics! Are you guys trying to turn the crash around? I think there is a conspiracy of the voodoo crash cult to try to herd everyone into a crash so they can scoop up those high grade bronze books they use to judge the entire market with. nothing like a punch of self serving statements to prove a theory.

[delekkerste]

Post deleted by delekkerste

[originalisbest]

Perhaps we should just "lay it on the line" and compare our respective endowments.

 

You post a pic of yours first.

 

 

(The laughter is anticipatory on my part.)

[Illiterati-migration]

So don't give me this "go get more real life experience" nonsense. It only makes you look all the more insecure about your own abilities and achievements.

 

Ummm... just for the record... so does alluding to the great things you've done in your life... without actually naming any of them.

 

BUT WAIT! Before you start pillaging your piles of old Maxim magazines for truly great tales of ribald that you can rip off, let me say that I don't care what you've done with your life. Your attitude and your responses show us plenty about who you are. So please, save the pixels. I don't care to see your life story.