The Hobby.....say a 5 year timeline.

[bronze_rules]

I didn't say anything because I didn't have anything conclusive to post but I'm sure I read somewhere about a recent significant upward trend.

 

Yeah, it went from something like 1.2 million to 1.8 million, while CDs dropped from 150 million to 134 million.

 

It is Voodoo Math at its best - like comparing my firend's catering business revenues (up 200%!) against McDonalds.

 

 

I am calling a bunch of bs on that one.

 

He's spot on. It is a pittance, relatively speaking.

In fact CDs have dropped even further, but the relative magnitudes still overwhelm vinyl record sales. If you read the fine print on any of those 'surging LP' album releases, you'll find that the source they reference didn't even start recording sales until 1991-- check out where sales were back then on the other chart I posted. Well, it's a pretty tough hurtle to beat, eh? Statistics, Damned lies, and Statistics.. let's get the momentum going fellas.

 

Edit: While I don't always agree with JC, I do strongly on this one (even if he took my chart).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

I'm making a big assumption here but I'd say fewer than 10% of the people I know still have turntables

 

I can only think of 1 person I know of who does. I can't even remember the last time I saw someone playing a CD.

 

Well, I still buy and play CDs occasionally; beats the heck outta lossy MP3 quality sound, but most audiophiles still prefer vinyl over digital formats. Not everything is about convenience, after all.

 

I realize that we're talking about a niche market, but the prices for new vinyl make it profitable in limited runs as a boutique collectable. Vinyl was predicted "dead" back in the 80's, but it's still around and has a new found "kewlness" factor.

 

I suspect that comics will endure as well, and for much the same reasons.

[kidcolt]

I don't think we will ever go paperless however I can see paper print dropping to probably 20-25% of what it currently is. I am sure that the paper industry has already taken a huge hit just in the last 5-10 years.

 

I think schools will be all computerized with every student using them for all of their work. The younger generation already prefers using ipods, tablets, laptops etc... Looking at some of them I can't really blame them. My son is 9 and he likes reading books and magazines but he also loves reading on the computer and all his fancy gizmos. Je also likes being lazy and listening to stuff rather then actually having to read it.

 

I will always prefer good old paper products however I have friends my age (38) who now get all their magazines and newspapers online. They have went digital because of the convenience and cost. They also think that reading it online is a lot better and has a lot of advantages with links to sports clips, other sites etc. With digital newspapers no matter how isolated or where you live you can read daily papers from all over the world on the same day. Living in an isolated rural small town in Norther Newfoundland Canada I certainly wouldn't be able to do this on hard copy print. I would be reading papers that were already weeks old.

[Park]

I didn't say anything because I didn't have anything conclusive to post but I'm sure I read somewhere about a recent significant upward trend.

 

Yeah, it went from something like 1.2 million to 1.8 million, while CDs dropped from 150 million to 134 million.

 

It is Voodoo Math at its best - like comparing my firend's catering business revenues (up 200%!) against McDonalds.

 

 

I am calling a bunch of bs on that one.

 

There is not a snowball's chance you have a friend.

 

He's spot on. It is a pittance, relatively speaking.

In fact CDs have dropped even further, but the relative magnitudes still overwhelm record sales. If you read the fine print on any of those 'surging LP' album releases, you'll find that the source they reference didn't even start recording sales until 1991-- check out where sales were back then on the other chart I posted. Well, it's a pretty tough hurtle to beat, eh? Statistics, Damned lies, and Statistics.. let's get the momentum going fellas.

 

Edit: While I don't always agree with JC, I do strongly on this one (even if he took my chart).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeez everyone's sarcasm meter must be broken. I was calling bs on JC having a friend.

 

It is a bad joke when I have to explain it. Oh well back to lurking.

[joe_collector]

Edit: While I don't always agree with JC, I do strongly on this one (even if he took my chart).

 

But it's such a *good* chart.

[joe_collector]

Jeez everyone's sarcasm meter must be broken. I was calling bs on JC having a friend.

 

Gee, that's really funny, huh?

[Scrooge]

Well, I still buy and play CDs occasionally; beats the heck outta lossy MP3 quality sound, but most audiophiles still prefer vinyl over digital formats. Not everything is about convenience, after all.

 

Same applies to comics. France is seeing (is it still) re-issues of the classic Astérix with new colors in print format to take advantage of new technologies and better printing process. Online reading versus in-print reading leads to color differences.

[Flee-Marquette]

I didn't say anything because I didn't have anything conclusive to post but I'm sure I read somewhere about a recent significant upward trend.

 

Yeah, it went from something like 1.2 million to 1.8 million, while CDs dropped from 150 million to 134 million.

 

It is Voodoo Math at its best - like comparing my firend's catering business revenues (up 200%!) against McDonalds.

 

Up to 2.8 Million.

 

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/vinyl-sales-increase-despite-industry-slump-20110106

 

I think it depends on what numbers you are using, but even so, this quote is telling:

 

"... sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

14 percent?

The part you edited out is also telling. Despite a drop in overall album sales

Vinyl still managed an increase.

 

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

[joe_collector]

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

 

Nope, because 14% of almost-nothing is still almost-nothing.

 

Look, I think it's cool that vinyl has come back a bit, but for all intents and purposes, it is still dead.

[Flee-Marquette]

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

 

 

Look, I think it's cool that vinyl has come back a bit, but for all intents and purposes, it is still dead.

 

I agree that it is probably insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but

deep down in your fanboy heart, you gotta be smiling a little bit because

an archaic medium is picking itself up and saying I am not dead yet.

[comicdonna]

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

 

 

Look, I think it's cool that vinyl has come back a bit, but for all intents and purposes, it is still dead.

 

I agree that it is probably insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but

deep down in your fanboy heart, you gotta be smiling a little bit because

an archaic medium is picking itself up and saying I am not dead yet.

It made me smile!

[Cat-Man_America]

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

 

Nope, because 14% of almost-nothing is still almost-nothing.

 

Look, I think it's cool that vinyl has come back a bit, but for all intents and purposes, it is still dead.

 

Not at all. I don't think that you're figuring in mark-up for high-end collectables worldwide. If a vinyl record cost $5 or $6 in 1983 or whatever, it costs $30, $40 or more now. Even with inflation and high petroleum prices there is a clear profit margin. So an increase of 14% suggests to me that this has potential as a growth industry.

 

If vinyl sounds better, and there is a wealth of evidence to support that contention, eventually folks will come back to it, marketing hype and convenience factors notwithstanding.

 

So, how does this correlate to comics?

 

IMHO, comic enjoyment and the pleasures associated with collecting cannot be replaced by digital mediums. In spite of being drawn to the latest technologies, at some point kids will rediscover and connect with the collecting passions of earlier generations; when that occurs, the market always rises to the occasion. Ergo, paper rules!

 

BTW, that reminds me of a tune from All That Jazz: Everything Old is New Again! (thumbs u

[bronze_rules]

"Though overall album sales dropped 13 percent in 2010, sales of vinyl increased by 14 percent over the previous year, with around 2.8 million units sold."

 

The bottom line is that vinyl sales have quadrupled in the last 5 years after being

practically non-existant and they are finding a new audience. I know these

aren't great numbers, but if this were to occur to comic sales, wouldn't we

be excited?

 

Nope, because 14% of almost-nothing is still almost-nothing.

 

Look, I think it's cool that vinyl has come back a bit, but for all intents and purposes, it is still dead.

 

Not at all. I don't think that you're figuring in mark-up for high-end collectables worldwide. If a vinyl record cost $5 or $6 in 1983 or whatever, it costs $30, $40 or more now. Even with inflation and high petroleum prices there is a clear profit margin. So an increase of 14% suggests to me that this has potential as a growth industry.

 

If vinyl sounds better, and there is a wealth of evidence to support that contention, eventually folks will come back to it, marketing hype and convenience factors notwithstanding.

 

So, how does this correlate to comics?

 

IMHO, comic enjoyment and the pleasures associated with collecting cannot be replaced by digital mediums. In spite of being drawn to the latest technologies, at some point kids will rediscover and connect with the collecting passions of earlier generations; when that occurs, the market always rises to the occasion. Ergo, paper rules!

 

BTW, that reminds me of a tune from All That Jazz: Everything Old is New Again! (thumbs u

 

Any good investment recommendations on vacuum tube radio vendors before the surge?

 

On the bright side, I don't think toilet paper will ever be replaced by digital.

[Currin Comics]

Some great points and comparisons from one and all, and I of course still like my comics and paperbacks........my paperback library is obscene. I still have not purchased a Kindle or the like.....will I, in time maybe, certainly if that is how I have to "read" in years to come since I'm a voracious reader anyway. The signpost of the written a printed word on paper is just to telling not to think that the end draws near, heck some schools are doing away with the teaching and learning of cursive manuscript......telling and related.....maybe, sign of the times....absolutely. How the Big Guns Marvel/DC adapt is unkown, but surely they must in order to survive well into the future, could they simply become Direct DVD release, TV animated shows like Avengers and Young Justice, TV shows current and yet to come, big ticket movies and video games......sure they could. I feel the great American mythos that is the comic industry will survive and adapt....even if the actual comic book is left behind to a niche hobby called collecting comic books. Now, as far as the sale of turntables......how else are we going to listen to our Power Records collections.......sheeesh.

[silverweb]

This has been an interesting thread. I am happy I still have my classic rock albums from the 60s and 70s. Fortunately, I have kept a nice turntable to play them on. I have even enjoyed listening to my copies of the Golden Record Reprints of Thor and FF. Vintage stuff, man! (thumbs u

[Bookery]

In spite of being drawn to the latest technologies, at some point kids will rediscover and connect with the collecting passions of earlier generations; when that occurs, the market always rises to the occasion. Ergo, paper rules!

 

But that hasn't been the case so far. Look at the history even within our own niche... the number of platinum-age collectors is infinitesmal. BLBs are all but dead except to a micro-niche. 40s and 50s paperbacks haven't, for the most part, gone up in value in 20 years. And now even most golden-age comics are back-sliding in demand and value (check this year's Overstreet, which is always hesitant to knock down values on anything... TV-western comics dropped in guide almost across the board... some by 20% or more).

 

Most people don't collect things they didn't grow up with. I never owned a baseball card as a kid, and so have no interest in them now. When the upcoming generation(s) have never even held a physical book or comic in their hands, why would they suddenly start collecting them in their 30s or 40s (disposable income ages)? And why would they want to read something in a format (paper) that they never became accustomed to?

 

There will still be a market for limited edition books, and maybe comics, as long as the current 30+ collectors are still around, but mass-market publishing of pretty much anything has a lifespan measured in years... not decades.

 

[Bunky Brian]

 

The new generation is playing online videogames, I went online to play Call of Duty World at War Zombies and was amazed there was 15,000 people playing and interacting with each other, then I started playing Red Dead Redemption and was blown away how interesting and so much better this game is than any recent comic book I read and now realize there is no way comic books can compete with videogames. I think comic books will still have a future but the market will continue to shrink as more and more people rather play the online videogames. Also let`s thank Spiderman, Batman, Wolverine, Superman, Green Lantern and the original core Avengers for keeping interest in this hobby relevant, imagine if Batman, Spider-man or some of the other key heroes were not around? this hobby would have been on life support years ago. So a big (thumbs uto Superman, Batman, Green Lantern, Spider-man, Avengers and X-men/Wolverine for keeping interest alive all these lean years.

(thumbs u

[maloney414]

In spite of being drawn to the latest technologies, at some point kids will rediscover and connect with the collecting passions of earlier generations; when that occurs, the market always rises to the occasion. Ergo, paper rules!

 

But that hasn't been the case so far. Look at the history even within our own niche... the number of platinum-age collectors is infinitesmal. BLBs are all but dead except to a micro-niche. 40s and 50s paperbacks haven't, for the most part, gone up in value in 20 years. And now even most golden-age comics are back-sliding in demand and value(check this year's Overstreet, which is always hesitant to knock down values on anything... TV-western comics dropped in guide almost across the board... some by 20% or more).

 

Most people don't collect things they didn't grow up with. I never owned a baseball card as a kid, and so have no interest in them now. When the upcoming generation(s) have never even held a physical book or comic in their hands, why would they suddenly start collecting them in their 30s or 40s (disposable income ages)? And why would they want to read something in a format (paper) that they never became accustomed to?

 

There will still be a market for limited edition books, and maybe comics, as long as the current 30+ collectors are still around, but mass-market publishing of pretty much anything has a lifespan measured in years... not decades.

 

+1

 

I see tons of mid and low grade GA pre-code horror books for sale at "Buy it Now" auctions. Very few run the course of a normal auction. Simply because dealers would lose money as the demand has fallen. Better to hold the book at a given high price and wait for that one person who wants the book. Sometimes taking years to find.

 

To be blunt, collectors who read them as a kid are dieing off. IMO, not a wise investment.

 

Exceptions? Very few. Books like Batman and Superman will always have collectors. Simply because they are still around today getting new fans who might want to complete a run. But if the characters aren't being used today, the book's going to decline. Stay away from high prices for Westerns, Romance, War, or Horror books in this category if you're investing.

 

And of course, I'm ignoring the rare high grade comics from the GA for this post.

 

 

 

[500Club]

While they might not be completely extinct, I would pretty much proclaim them dead as collectibles for all intents and purposes.

 

 

I'd say that's a pretty good measure of a "thing of the past." And that took what, 10 years from the peak? I wonder what vinyl aficionados were saying back then to the naysayers.

 

I think using vinyl records as a comparison to comics doesn't work so well. Vinyl didn't die off due to rising prices and decreasing customers, it was surpassed by cassette and then CD music. The music industry customers didn't dwindle the way comics customers have been.

[dupont2005]

I wonder if there will still be cd's in 5 years?

 

I quit buying them several years ago, unless it's something so obscure I can't find it in digital at all. I more recently quit buying DVD's and have never bought a Blu Ray. I only rent them through Netflix or watch streaming video through cable or online. I could be persuaded into buying a special box set of something I love though, but I haven't in a while.