When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[seanfingh]

 

I love WD. I simply don't see any logical reason why it would continue to rise indefinitely. There are absolutely no analogues in comics. Especially other media tie in comics.

 

I think as soon as the comic and/or TV series has run its course, it will see a 1/3 - 2/3 adjustment downward. Then when the Rule of 25 kicks in, watch out!!

 

All this said, if you love WD and you can afford it without making the kids drink hot dog water for nutrition, have at it.

[Mark 1]

hmmm...hot dog water for my kids....

[bababooey]

hmmm...hot dog water for my kids....

 

[Mark 1]

hmmm...hot dog water for my kids....

 

 

[comix4fun]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

[Mark 1]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

 

The Crow as a comparison? I think not.

 

Once Brandon Lee died...that franchise died.

 

Those movies and series never had the popularity of breaking viewership records with 10-12 million people viewing weekly. The number of people exposed and hooked to WD is quite astonishing. No show with a comic has shown to rival this type of popularity.

 

I'm not saying it's sustainable but I don't think the Crow is a viable comparison.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2013 by Mark 1

[comix4fun]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

 

The Crow as a comparison? I think not.

 

Once Brandon Lee died...that franchise died.

 

Those movies and series never had the popularity of breaking viewership records with 10-12 million people viewing weekly. The number of people exposed and hooked to WD is quite astonishing. No show with a comic has shown to rival this type of popularity.

 

I'm not saying it's sustainable but I don't think the Crow is a viable comparison.

 

 

 

I think you might be misremembering. Once Brandon Lee died the series got MASSIVE attention and had a huge opening weekend compared to expectations. Adjusted for inflation the Crow was over $100 million at the box office before the millions and millions of DVD units it's sold over the years. If you weren't paying attention around the mid 90's when the film came out you could say what you said, but if you were paying attention you would know it was actually licensing juggernaut selling everything people could possibly want from head to toe.

 

It's silly to say "The Franchise Died" when it's still going with another film in production. FIVE FILMS to be released AFTER Brandon Lee died. If the Franchise "died" with Brandon Lee someone should probably inform the franchise of that.

 

5 studio films and 25 years in continuous print are two things WD hasn't yet achieved.

 

It's great that the WD has had cable TV success. I think you are conflating people who enjoy watching a show with fans willing to pay $1k plus for a single comic. They aren't creating comic fans at the same rate they are creating fans of the show.

 

What the WD has achieved is wonderful.

 

However it's not SOOOOOO wonderful that you can ignore something that's been a viable franchise selling $100+ million in movie tickets, millions of DVDs, and spawned several spin offs, reboots, and comic series over the last 25 years.

 

The Crow has had longevity. The Crow books are far FAR more rare than the equivalent WD books. The Crow has also proven that longevity and rarity are no guarantee of future value, demand or immunity from downturn.

[Prince Namor]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

 

That's a great example, and one that is better than TMNT's, because, as you say, there is no kid factor to revitalize it every couple of years.

The one thing I think that WD has over the Crow is, a consistent monthly comic that has grown in readership month after month. They've been building that brand month after month, year after year for almost 10 years. I think that makes a big difference.

The Crow was has maybe 20 comic appearances in 20+ years?

 

Having 20+ episodes of the WD TV show for three straight years is building that brand as well.

People are 'into' the characters. First appearances. Who dies and when. They're into the story.

After the initial origin, the Crow is kinda weak isn't it? I still think its the best comparison yet, but the differences are still fairly extreme.

If I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet that WD #1 hold their value in 10 years to what it is today, BUT, it sure is tough finding anything to really compare it to.

[TSwift25]

The thing that makes WD, for me, different than the other independents it inevitably gets compared to simply by virtue of being a B&W image title is that WD stays on time. A lot of monthlys that started out hot and cooled really did so, at least in my opinion, due in large part to a very erratic shipping schedule.

 

Multimedia exposure, huge public pop-culture awareness, and an on-time schedule makes it an incredibly unique study.

[Prince Namor]

And Kirkman is a great spokesman for it (compare that to O'Barr!). There's a lot to be said for that lengthy letters page and monthly interaction with fans (ala early Marvel Stan Lee). He's building a club and people feel they belong to it.

[comix4fun]

The Crow was has maybe 20 comic appearances in 20+ years?

 

 

17 series, 50 some issues. The character can't be ongoing, so it's several limited series with new characters.

 

It's also tpb that is in somewhere north of its 10th printing. Checking to get an exact number.

[comix4fun]

And Kirkman is a great spokesman for it (compare that to O'Barr!). There's a lot to be said for that lengthy letters page and monthly interaction with fans (ala early Marvel Stan Lee). He's building a club and people feel they belong to it.

 

 

 

If Kirkman had lost the WD for a small one time payment before it ever saw the screen and never saw a dime after he'd probably be a bad spokesman too.

 

 

[Prince Namor]

The Crow was has maybe 20 comic appearances in 20+ years?

 

 

17 series, 50 some issues. The character can't be ongoing, so it's several limited series with new characters.

 

It's also tpb that is in somewhere north of its 10th printing. Checking to get an exact number.

 

Yeah, it's more than I thought. I just don't see people as invested in it like they are WD.

I've known people who are really into the character or the concept, I just don't remember the stories ever having a following like WD.

A lot of great memorable characters in WD gives it a great deal of strength, and that's a big factor in longevity.

[Prince Namor]

And Kirkman is a great spokesman for it (compare that to O'Barr!). There's a lot to be said for that lengthy letters page and monthly interaction with fans (ala early Marvel Stan Lee). He's building a club and people feel they belong to it.

 

 

 

If Kirkman had lost the WD for a small one time payment before it ever saw the screen and never saw a dime after he'd probably be a bad spokesman too.

 

 

Wow I didn't know that. That has to hurt.

[comix4fun]

The Crow was has maybe 20 comic appearances in 20+ years?

 

 

17 series, 50 some issues. The character can't be ongoing, so it's several limited series with new characters.

 

It's also tpb that is in somewhere north of its 10th printing. Checking to get an exact number.

 

Yeah, it's more than I thought. I just don't see people as invested in it like they are WD.

I've known people who are really into the character or the concept, I just don't remember the stories ever having a following like WD.

A lot of great memorable characters in WD gives it a great deal of strength, and that's a big factor in longevity.

 

 

True. It's hard to see it now. There hasn't been a movie in years. Although the one they are working on now sounds promising. So there's no heat. It's laying dormant right now.

 

Back then though? 1994-1997 The print runs on those Crow later series were 100,000 per issue or more. It was rolling at figure that doubled or tripled the WD print runs of normal issues. That's one reason why no one cares about back issues or collects then. They are EVERYWHERE.

 

The other reason was, it was hard to "get into" any particular Crow story given that they were all meant to be 3 or 4 issue mini's with a new character set, most of which were dead or soon to be dead and then the story was over.

 

My comparison was how far reaching the licensing, marketing, and popularity of the brand was back then, how many books it sold constantly, and how quickly it faded without new product to push it.

 

When TV is over, when Kirkman gets bored, or when the stories wane taking some readers with them, there's no way value can be sustained. It gets relegated to a "hey, remember how cool that series was" which is a long way from "HOTTER THAN THE SUN".

 

I enjoy the series and have since day one. I enjoy it for what it is. I know you know this and it's not directly at you, but I don't think WD is something unique to the medium. It's part of the medium. That means it's not immune to what every other book is susceptible to within the medium. I am all for people buying whatever books they love and spending whatever they want. Personally, I can't delude myself into thinking that anything will last forever in an unending rise to the heavens.

 

People will, without fail, be burned monetarily by anything that they purchase at the apex of its popularity. From cars, to real estate, to gems, to commodities, to precious metals, to collectibles no one is safe, no one is immune, there is always a loser.

[comix4fun]

And Kirkman is a great spokesman for it (compare that to O'Barr!). There's a lot to be said for that lengthy letters page and monthly interaction with fans (ala early Marvel Stan Lee). He's building a club and people feel they belong to it.

 

 

 

If Kirkman had lost the WD for a small one time payment before it ever saw the screen and never saw a dime after he'd probably be a bad spokesman too.

 

 

Wow I didn't know that. That has to hurt.

 

 

Yeah, 20 years hence it seems as raw as day one.

[musicmeta]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

 

+1

[mackenzie999]

Crow seems a bit more niche than WD to me, which is enjoying the benefits of riding the prolonged zombie popularity-wave as well as being essentially free (unless you pay for cable specifically for WD that is).

The only people I ever knew who were really into the Crow were goth types, WD seems to rope in everyone. Seems logical that if/when the tv franchise (and inevitable Hollywood spinoffs) end it's popularity will taper as well. Hot book of the moment, and what will probably be a very prolonged moment, but I'm pretty sure it will settle down a bit.

[Mark 1]

You've got to take a look at The Crow to get a pretty interesting parallel.

The Crow is a lot closer to WD than TMNT is. WD has no built in "kid factor" to keep it renewed and fresh and to restock its fan base. The Crow and WD share the same demographic and were fueled by the same basic age group of collectors and fans. Both were media and licensing darlings in the heat of their mainstream (Film/TV) spotlight.

 

The Crow:

4 studio films completed.

1 studio film in the works.

 

1 live action TV show

1 animated series developed

 

In print consistently for the last 25-ish years.

T-shirts, books, novels, posters, statues, toys, coasters, lighters, rings, etc etc etc etc licensed out the yang.

 

Original Series...Extremely low print run, with all black covers and exceedingly hard to find in high grade.

 

To this date there are only 14 copies of The Crow #1 in 9.8 and 18 copies of Caliber Presents #1.

 

Value of 1st appearance and 1st issue? Relatively flat for several years.

 

The HEAT generated by the first film and interest therein made people seek out those early Crow books. Then they fell on their face for a decade. Only when people realized the CGC + hard to find in high grade equation was in play did it start to uptick again, only to flatten.

 

Take away the heat of mass media attention (TV or FILM) and you take away the push that people feel to get those books.

 

 

The part of the comparison that is most interesting is the "CGC Factor". Obviously CGC did not exist in 1989 for people to take their Crow books and have them immediately slabbed. Also it took the series a bit of time to gain traction (as did WD) so by the time people went back to find The Crow, it was a later printing or a lesser grade copy (that impossible all black cover).

 

With WD, CGC was already rolling for several years, the mentality of picking out 9.8s and keeping them that way was ingrained. That statement is proven when taking a peek at the census.

 

For every ONE copy of The Crow #1 you will find in 9.8 or better there are about FORTY copies of WD #1. 40 to 1. Leaning on "scarcity" in discussing WD #1 is a non-starter. Looking at the numbers that matter there are so many of these books that when interest levels go back to normal it's only natural to see some decline.

 

Take away the films, take away the heat that comes with the films/tv, and we've seen what happens to overall interest. Overall interest drives prices. We've seen it over and over again. It's not a novel concept in the least.

 

The Crow as a comparison? I think not.

 

Once Brandon Lee died...that franchise died.

 

Those movies and series never had the popularity of breaking viewership records with 10-12 million people viewing weekly. The number of people exposed and hooked to WD is quite astonishing. No show with a comic has shown to rival this type of popularity.

 

I'm not saying it's sustainable but I don't think the Crow is a viable comparison.

 

 

 

I think you might be misremembering. Once Brandon Lee died the series got MASSIVE attention and had a huge opening weekend compared to expectations. Adjusted for inflation the Crow was over $100 million at the box office before the millions and millions of DVD units it's sold over the years. If you weren't paying attention around the mid 90's when the film came out you could say what you said, but if you were paying attention you would know it was actually licensing juggernaut selling everything people could possibly want from head to toe.

 

It's silly to say "The Franchise Died" when it's still going with another film in production. FIVE FILMS to be released AFTER Brandon Lee died. If the Franchise "died" with Brandon Lee someone should probably inform the franchise of that.

 

5 studio films and 25 years in continuous print are two things WD hasn't yet achieved.

 

It's great that the WD has had cable TV success. I think you are conflating people who enjoy watching a show with fans willing to pay $1k plus for a single comic. They aren't creating comic fans at the same rate they are creating fans of the show.

 

What the WD has achieved is wonderful.

 

However it's not SOOOOOO wonderful that you can ignore something that's been a viable franchise selling $100+ million in movie tickets, millions of DVDs, and spawned several spin offs, reboots, and comic series over the last 25 years.

 

The Crow has had longevity. The Crow books are far FAR more rare than the equivalent WD books. The Crow has also proven that longevity and rarity are no guarantee of future value, demand or immunity from downturn.

 

Valid points for sure. I lost interest in that franchise after Brandon Lee died. He was the character to me and after...I didn't follow it.

 

 

[ThoseBackPages]

in the end it all goes away