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When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst?
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Started by The-Collector,

3,607 posts in this topic

loadstone

loadstone

Posted
Posted

Ladies, gentlemen, mutants, morlocks, zombies, speculators, it's all very simple.

Has the walking dead bubble burst? No

Has it undergone a correction? That's one way to look at it.

Will it burst or deflate and when? Well that all depends on those who are holding 9.6-9.9 copies and whether a few sellers decide to panic and sell for way below market price inducing others to sell out driving their prices down.

 

How did we get here and where can it go?

In the beginning, you had a run up from $100 to $2500 in a few years mainly because of the shows popularity but also because many fans, collectors, and speculators with big budgets (or willing to stretch them) decided they needed to get in right away at any price as it ran up.

In the last few years, the number of collectors/fans/speculators (we'll call them Alphas) willing to pay $2k+ for a 9.8 have pretty much all obtained their copies (note there are plenty of Alpha Primes willing to pay $3k to $10k for the 9.9 copies but there aren't enough copies right now). What is left are the collectors/fans/speculators who are buyers at the next price point below that missed the early run up. These guys are the ones willing to pay $1.5k to $2k right now (white label at the low end and black label at the high end but let's not get into that) We'll call those collectors/fans/specs Betas. And then there's a few who will go above $1k but not 1.5k for some reason (line they've drawn in the sand and they are Deltas) Everyone else falls under the sub $1k price point which may be satisfied with 9.4's and below.

 

So lets assume all the Alphas have all been satisfied so the next demand point is the Betas who are being picked off little by little as an Alpha owner gets nervous/wants to cash in/has other interest/needs the money decides to sell at a profit making lower price that is still acceptable which is where we begin to see the $1.8k 1.9k and 1.6k prices. Especially those early adopter speculators who got in at $100-500 and are getting really nervous/need the money.

Thus the market will sustain a 1.5 to 2k bottom so long as sellers don't panic. Now there may be speculators among the Betas and Deltas who think buying at $1.5k is a good deal (which it may be right now) but what they don't realize is that now they are the new top of the demand curve market buyer driving the prices. If all Betas buy all the Alpha copies (there are likely more Beta buyers than Alpha sellers), they will have no one but other Betas and Deltas to sell to unless some of the Betas become Alphas or more Alphas enter the market.

 

So what's the point? Well this market is both saturated and controllable. If all sellers collude to not sell below $2k+ or do so in a manner that won't get recorded to GPA/public online record, the market aware price point stays at $2k+. Betas will be forced to save up and buy at the Alpha price point. However, irrationality can lead to some playing the FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) trump cards. If all Alpha speculators (non fans/collectors) decide to dump their copies at whatever they can get and they also are holding a majority of the copies of 9.8, rest assured there will be a a steep drop off. However, just as there's a downward correction, there can and will be an upward one. Why? Because once speculators clear the market, bottom feeder fans/collector Deltas and Betas will gladly jump in on the downswing and spawn another upswing to keep the prices from falling too low. I believe we got a glimpse of this by what happened earlier this summer when many 9.8 #1's sold for $1.4k-1.7k and began another upswing back up to $2k.

One thing to remember.

I said before this may be true: # of Beta buyers > # of Alpha Sellers

But this may not be true: # of Beta buyers > # of 9.8 copies

So if # of Beta buyers is < # of 9.8 copies, you will definitely see a steeper drop off in pricing as the only ones to sell to will be Deltas.

 

So what can the rest do about this? Not much. Look the speculators/fair weather fans are going to either start cashing out when they felt the market peaked which seems to be at $2.5k once they recognize that there are no more Alpha buyers and try to target the next tier to get the most that they can. Not all will right away. Others will be more patient and hold until they see it peak again or use the TV show ratings/cancellation as indicators but honestly if you wait until the ratings or show cancellation point to sell, you're probably too late already if you're expecting to get $$$$

 

So how can this market ever improve or be sustained? Well you just need to entice or draw in a whole new crop of Alpha buyers. Newly minted 25-35 year-olds with large disposable incomes willing to spend $2k or more on a comic and sellers have to agree not to sell below $2k. Sustainability can only be reached once the # of new Alpha buyers > the # of 9.8 copies available for sale.

What about all the other issues other than #1? Well sadly those will probably suffer the most right away as it takes a true collector to desire to acquire a whole run. 1-10 will do fine, 10-30 will be ok with 19 and 27 not dropping a whole lot especially if there are spinoff series for Michonne. 40 and above will probably just get graded fees covered pricing $30-$50. Again, collusion in selling and pricing is key. If you hold prices at $50+ good. If you auction or sell below that then the Betas and Deltas will gladly begin to buy at the lower price points driving the market downward.

Oh God not another bad analogy! Yes sorry but:

Why does a pack of coca cola cost $3.50+ everywhere? Because they force distributors and merchants by contract to sell at no less than a specific price. They use a reserve price. Every now and then a store is permitted to offer a sale but not without permission from Coca-cola. this is to preserve the market price and brand and the other top cola producers collude. Want another bad analogy? Ok here goes: but if all sellers agreed to hold and control the market like DeBeers, and offer cooperative competitive pricing like the cola industry, you can continue to preserve the high prices long after the show's cancellation. You just have to keep bringing in the Alphas long after the show ends. How do you do this? That is the secret sauce! (thumbs u

 

 

(sorry about the wall of text)

 

 

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Tony S

Tony S

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Posted
Yet the common retort is that we are stupid to invest $10k in a modern comic. We are, in fact, not doing that.

 

Well, somebody sure is.

 

I was going to say, "That may or may not be true. The 10k paid for a WD 1 CGC 9.9 may have been for an investment, but may have been for a personal collection as well."

 

But I checked GPA, and the WD 1 CGC 9.9 that sold for $10.1k on 11/14/12 sold for $15k on 11/4/13.

 

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/Walking-Dead-1-CGC-not-9-6-9-8-but-9-9-MINT-/251357811409

 

I agree that investing 10k in any modern is most likely fool hardy. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which that makes sense for future profit. It seems there would be much more downside risk that upside. However, that same sentence has been uttered over and over again about WD #1 and keeps being proved wrong.

 

I remember a few weeks ago there were two on eBay that were going for well under 10,000 - one was a Best Offer auction with a BIN at $7,500 I think and the other was something like $6850 at BIN. I think the $10,000 days should be over (until next fall, anyway, when the next season starts, it could resurge again).

 

Now if a 10.0 ever hits... :ohnoez:

Or maybe when the rest of Season 4 starts again. hm A 10.0 :ohnoez::takeit:lol

 

:takeit: I agree…homes are overrated :roflmao:

 

I wonder what a 10.0 would fetch in the middle of the hype? If 9.9's brought in 10,000+…any speculations? hm

 

I don't know what a 10 would bring. But it might not be a good thing for the owners of the 16 copies at 9.9.

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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

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Posted
I like walking dead comics.

 

agreed indeed.

 

lol

lol:cloud9:

 

Me too :applause:

 

Not sure how many times it has been said but this was a 500 dollar book before the show was more than a rumor.

 

So let's assume the average sold price was $500 in 2009.

 

Average inflation rates by year in US:

2010 = 1.6%

2011 = 3.2%

2012 = 2.1%

2013 = 1.6%

 

So value without the show would have been…. $543.83!

 

:ohnoez:

 

pop

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James J

James J

Posted
Posted
I like walking dead comics.

 

agreed indeed.

 

lol

lol:cloud9:

 

Me too :applause:

 

Not sure how many times it has been said but this was a 500 dollar book before the show was more than a rumor.

 

So let's assume the average sold price was $500 in 2009.

 

Average inflation rates by year in US:

2010 = 1.6%

2011 = 3.2%

2012 = 2.1%

2013 = 1.6%

 

So value without the show would have been…. $543.83!

 

:ohnoez:

 

pop

 

hm . Increases in Comic values are in line with the US inflation rates. Can you go by inflation rates of other countries if you like?Or only the US?

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raybowles

raybowles

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Posted (edited)

The TWD Bubble with burst when... get ready for it... when the TV show ratings and quality dip and it looks like it will be cancelled or not renewed for another season.

 

 

When I read predictions like this I really have to lauph. It's stating the obvious. Of course if the show starts going downhill and it looks like it will be cancelled the price of the #1 issue will drop. That's like someone predicting that if a modern comic like CHEW, SAGA, etc. becomes a TV show on HBO it will go up in value.

 

The key issue IMO is today's value compared to what it will be when the show eventually goes off the air. If someone were to purchase a CGC 9.8 today for let's say $1,800 would they more likely/less likely to see a profit when the show eventually ends. The answer of course is who knows? No matter what anyone tells you it's all really just a guess folks. If the show stays on for another 5 + years which is very likely I could easily see the comic going for $3,500 - $4,000. Now lets say after the show is cancelled it drops in value $1,000 -$1,500 the comic would still be worth much more than the original $1,800 that was shelled out to purchase it today.

 

Bottom Line is nobody has any idea what the value will be. What we do know is the print run was less than 7,300 and the comic is becoming more popular every year. Kirkman has said he plans on doing the comic for a long time. We also know that the TV show is a HUGE hit and even though some of you guys don't like the show that much the viewing public loves it. The ratings keep getting better and the show appeals to all types of people: Young, old, male, female. We also know that starting in the summer of 2015 there will be another Walking Dead type show starting on AMC. In all honesty I can't see any reason why the Walking Dead show(s) are not around for many years to come.

 

IMO purchasing a CGC 9.8 #1 issue today would show a nice profit if it's sold say one year after the show eventually ends. Of course none of us really knows just like we have no idea what the value of any comic will be years from now. One thing I would hope for is that every comic collector would get behind the Walking Dead and support it. It's the best thing to happen to comics in a long time. It's making our hobby more mainstream and bringing in more people to comics. I have introduced 7 people so far to the comic and most of them are now buying other comics. I find it bizarre how so many collectors are hoping that the show and comic tank. It makes no sense.

 

 

Edited by raybowles
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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

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Posted
The TWD Bubble with burst when... get ready for it... when the TV show ratings and quality dip and it looks like it will be cancelled or not renewed for another season.

 

 

When I read predictions like this I really have to lauph. It's stating the obvious. Of course if the show starts going downhill and it looks like it will be cancelled the price of the #1 issue will drop. That's like someone predicting that if a modern comic like CHEW, SAGA, etc. becomes a TV show on HBO it will go up in value.

 

The key issue IMO is today's value compared to what it will be when the show eventually goes off the air. If someone were to purchase a CGC 9.8 today for let's say $1,800 would they more likely/less likely to see a profit when the show eventually ends. The answer of course is who knows? No matter what anyone tells you it's all really just a guess folks. If the show stays on for another 5 + years which is very likely I could easily see the comic going for $3,500 - $4,000. Now lets say after the show is cancelled it drops in value $1,000 -$1,500 the comic would still be worth much more than the original $1,800 that was shelled out to purchase it today.

 

Bottom Line is nobody has any idea what the value will be. What we do know is the print run was less than 7,300 and the comic is becoming more popular every year. Kirkman has said he plans on doing the comic for a long time. We also know that the TV show is a HUGE hit and even though some of you guys don't like the show that much the viewing public loves it. The ratings keep getting better and the show appeals to all types of people: Young, old, male, female. We also know that starting in the summer of 2015 there will be another Walking Dead type show starting on AMC. In all honesty I can't see any reason why the Walking Dead show(s) are not around for many years to come.

 

IMO purchasing a CGC 9.8 #1 issue today would show a nice profit if it's sold say one year after the show eventually ends. Of course none of us really knows just like we have no idea what the value of any comic will be years from now. One thing I would hope for is that every comic collector would get behind the Walking Dead and support it. It's the best thing to happen to comics in a long time. It's making our hobby more mainstream and bringing in more people to comics. I have introduced 7 people so far to the comic and most of them are now buying other comics. I find it bizarre how so many collectors are hoping that the show and comic tank. It makes no sense.

 

 

0% chance of this happening

 

 

 

Trust me, 50% of the time I am right all the time.

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